Apple to see little impact from EU regulations, says investing firm
J.P. Morgan says Apple won't see much immediate impact on App Store revenue due to how its new fee structure is arranged, but regulators around are likely eyeing the solution.

Apple's EU changes won't have impact on revenue
Apple has changed how it does business in the EU due to the Digital Markets Act. Amongst other changes, it reduced its overall commission from 30% to 17% and added a fifty-cent fee on all apps downloaded after a developer passes 1 million downloads.
According to a finance note seen by AppleInsider from J.P. Morgan, these changes will have little impact on Apple. The fifty-cent fee will balance out the reduced commissions, and Europe only accounts for about 6% of App Store revenue.
Changes to the App Store market in the EU are restricted to that region. However, regulators around the world may seek to achieve similar results. The United States, for example, is already "firing on all cylinders" in an antitrust investigation on Apple's App Store.
The implementations for Apple's App Store changes in the EU won't go into effect until iOS 17.4 is released in March. The beta for the update released earlier Thursday.
Read on AppleInsider
Comments
Devs dreaming of squatting on iOS for free have been living on Cloud Cuckoo Land. Forbidding Apple to charge iOS app developers is like forcing malls to lease retail space for free. Maintaining an app platform, just like maintaining a physical mall, is not a cost-free proposition.
Consumers don't complain about not being able to install a particular app on their device or the commission fee that they never see on their $0.99 purchases. Nor will the prices change, the billionaire companies will just keep more.
Companies like Match.com have been complaining about it, they made $3.1b in 2022, $848m from Europe:
https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000891103/de338546-2c7e-4e51-adf0-c83bb15ab356.pdf
They had 30% costs ($959m) attributed mainly to the commission fee. This is more than their net income ($360m). It looks like Apple and Google make more profit from their product/service than they do, which can't sit well with their shareholders.
There isn't a large mass of Apple consumers waiting for more freedom. Google has had it for years and it's only used by Amazon and Chinese app stores, consumers stick with the store that's on their device because it's safe and easy.
What will probably happen is there will be a store for Epic, one for Match, one for Microsoft (including Candy Crush now) and they will each host their own products to avoid paying a fee.
I suspect European App Store revenue is higher than 6%, for Match.com it's 27%. Generally, there are 3 big markets - US, Asia, Europe, split roughly 50:25:25. This will impact a portion of 25% of Apple's App Store revenue. It could be a significant portion if all the billionaire companies skip out on the bill but small vs Apple's overall revenue.