New iPhones don't need to be "compelling" to sell. Fact is, these things wear out after three or so years; Apple has a money printing machine making phones to replace those that wear out. I don't see any company having the scale and ecosystem to displace Apple in the premium phone space.
People think of Google as a tech company. They certainly started that way, but now they are an advertising company with a technology subsidiary.
Similarly, Apple is a marketing company that happens to make hardware and software. Apple has a massive amount of developed and ready to go technology. The marketing people control the technology spigot and decide how much new technology to release in a certain time period. I guarantee Apple has a foldable iPhone developed and ready to go. However the marketing people have decided they don’t want to offer that technology at this time. It’s a numbers game of units sold, revenue and profitability optimization. Apple has an incentive to milk the deployed technology in their products for as long as possible so as to create predictable demand year after year. They know the vast majority of people don’t do annual phone upgrades, so they have models that are used to predict how many customers with older iPhones would be willing to upgrade to a new phone based on price and new functionality/technology. There are other companies with more advanced technology in their products than Apple. Apple doesn’t want new technology to be deployed any sooner than necessary. So you get year over year marginal improvements in speed, performance and capacity. Hence Apple’s focus on non-performance attributes used to sell phones - such as case colors, titanium construction, thinness, weight etc. These are designed to offer people superficial reasons to upgrade vs pure technology reasons. The smartphone market is saturated. The Apple marketing people may need to open up the technology spigot a bit more in the not too distant future. If they want to maintain or expand their annual sales volume.
Apple is a hardware company, and they've built an ecosystem around that hardware to support continued sales of that hardware at premium prices. They aren't "a marketing company that happens to make hardware and software." Companies set up like that regard everything they make as interchangeable widgets, and they shuffle them around with a singular goal of chasing quarterly numbers. Those companies ultimately sell overhyped crap, because they do not care what the widgets are. That is the antithesis of how Apple functions as a company.
Apple doesn't have a foldable iPhone "ready to go." Foldable phones serve no purpose other than fulfilling the wet dreams of marketing departments. They are a novelty that wears off the moment you've made the rounds of your friends to say "Look! It folds!" From an engineering and QC standpoint, a folding screen iPhone is a nightmare. Phones live in pockets, purses, and book bags, and they're brought out, handled, checked, dropped and generally abused over and over, all day, every day. Adding a physical weak point to a device in that category guarantees wear, damage and breakage at rates that would be orders of magnitude higher than the current solid slab iPhone design. While novelty sales may spike a single quarter's earnings, poor customer experiences later will do long-term damage. So no, Apple doesn't have a folding iPhone "ready to go," because they don't do novelty bells and whistles to satisfy the marketing department at the expense of long-term integrity. If they produce a folding screen device, it will a) serve a real purpose, and b) it will be a device like an iPad or MacBook that doesn't receive the level of fiddling, checking and general abuse that an iPhone does.
You are correct that Apple knows most people upgrade phones over a multi-year cycle, but it's not about "milking deployed technology." It's about providing customer satisfaction through actual value. That's why iPhone upgrades are always iterative. When a customer spends hundreds to over a thousand dollars for a phone this year, that customer should not be made angry next year because their one-year-old (or less) phone has been rendered obsolete by quantum leaps in the new phone. To the contrary, annual iOS updates actually add new features and capabilities that make last year's iPhone better, while hardware upgrades intentionally do not make owners of last year's model jealously feel like they wasted their money. Hardware upgrades are made such that cumulatively over three, four or five years, a new phone eventually becomes inviting to owners of an old phone. Owners of that old iPhone are then positively disposed to consider buying a new iPhone specifically because their experience informs them that they're buying a device that's designed to last for years, not months.
Apple is run by the marketing department not the tech developers. Apple has an inventory of developed technology that the marketing department assess and determines when new features can and should be released to optimize revenues and profits. Apple’s ecosystem provides some benefits but is primarily designed to lock in users. RAM and SSD capacity is totally marketing driven. iPhone sales are projected to drop 15% this year. Mainly due to competition that is lower priced and offers similar capabilities. So yes Apple develops hardware, but its marketing that runs the business.
Kuo is such a reliable authority. I'm sure you're all reading this on your 2023 foldable iPhone, too, right?
LOL... foldable iPhones are such hot items. Kuo has been wrong almost as often as he has been right. So slightly better than flipping a coin. Yet he is revered by Wall Street advisors who make money only when shares move. Announcing this before results is clearly intended to influence share prices.
It seems clear now that Apple was caught on the back foot with AI.
What are you basing this on?
Apple has a lot of AI hiding in plain sight. Just because they aren’t like the rest of the market with their “me too” attitude about chatgpt doesn’t mean they don’t have AI already in place and waiting for bigger deployment.
Kuo doesn’t have a lot to go on. His best information is a good 3-4 levels away in the supply chain and not someone inside Apple because they’ve gotten good at plugging leaks.
Once you see the VP in person, you’ll get a better idea on the path Apple is going to take on AI and how it’s going to change the public’s perception of AI and VR compared to what’s available.
That’s the point. Nothing deployed.
Anything sitting in a back room means it isn't in the hands of users while others have shipping products.
2023 was the year of big launches in both generative and LLM AI.
Apple has had little show beyond ML which everyone has been using for years now.
Some posters here (perhaps with friends inside Apple) have stated that Apple is rushing (maybe scrambling would be a better term) to inject these kinds of AI into the product matrix.
On that I can't speak, just indicate what some have said.
Big launches of what and where? Search engines, with tucked away betas. Chat apps, who cares. Then we see some mild letter writing tools, yawn. What value am I missing here? What are your knockoff cell phones doing iPhone isn’t?
People think of Google as a tech company. They certainly started that way, but now they are an advertising company with a technology subsidiary.
Similarly, Apple is a marketing company that happens to make hardware and software. Apple has a massive amount of developed and ready to go technology. The marketing people control the technology spigot and decide how much new technology to release in a certain time period. I guarantee Apple has a foldable iPhone developed and ready to go. However the marketing people have decided they don’t want to offer that technology at this time. It’s a numbers game of units sold, revenue and profitability optimization. Apple has an incentive to milk the deployed technology in their products for as long as possible so as to create predictable demand year after year. They know the vast majority of people don’t do annual phone upgrades, so they have models that are used to predict how many customers with older iPhones would be willing to upgrade to a new phone based on price and new functionality/technology. There are other companies with more advanced technology in their products than Apple. Apple doesn’t want new technology to be deployed any sooner than necessary. So you get year over year marginal improvements in speed, performance and capacity. Hence Apple’s focus on non-performance attributes used to sell phones - such as case colors, titanium construction, thinness, weight etc. These are designed to offer people superficial reasons to upgrade vs pure technology reasons. The smartphone market is saturated. The Apple marketing people may need to open up the technology spigot a bit more in the not too distant future. If they want to maintain or expand their annual sales volume.
Apple is a hardware company, and they've built an ecosystem around that hardware to support continued sales of that hardware at premium prices. They aren't "a marketing company that happens to make hardware and software." Companies set up like that regard everything they make as interchangeable widgets, and they shuffle them around with a singular goal of chasing quarterly numbers. Those companies ultimately sell overhyped crap, because they do not care what the widgets are. That is the antithesis of how Apple functions as a company.
Apple doesn't have a foldable iPhone "ready to go." Foldable phones serve no purpose other than fulfilling the wet dreams of marketing departments. They are a novelty that wears off the moment you've made the rounds of your friends to say "Look! It folds!" From an engineering and QC standpoint, a folding screen iPhone is a nightmare. Phones live in pockets, purses, and book bags, and they're brought out, handled, checked, dropped and generally abused over and over, all day, every day. Adding a physical weak point to a device in that category guarantees wear, damage and breakage at rates that would be orders of magnitude higher than the current solid slab iPhone design. While novelty sales may spike a single quarter's earnings, poor customer experiences later will do long-term damage. So no, Apple doesn't have a folding iPhone "ready to go," because they don't do novelty bells and whistles to satisfy the marketing department at the expense of long-term integrity. If they produce a folding screen device, it will a) serve a real purpose, and b) it will be a device like an iPad or MacBook that doesn't receive the level of fiddling, checking and general abuse that an iPhone does.
You are correct that Apple knows most people upgrade phones over a multi-year cycle, but it's not about "milking deployed technology." It's about providing customer satisfaction through actual value. That's why iPhone upgrades are always iterative. When a customer spends hundreds to over a thousand dollars for a phone this year, that customer should not be made angry next year because their one-year-old (or less) phone has been rendered obsolete by quantum leaps in the new phone. To the contrary, annual iOS updates actually add new features and capabilities that make last year's iPhone better, while hardware upgrades intentionally do not make owners of last year's model jealously feel like they wasted their money. Hardware upgrades are made such that cumulatively over three, four or five years, a new phone eventually becomes inviting to owners of an old phone. Owners of that old iPhone are then positively disposed to consider buying a new iPhone specifically because their experience informs them that they're buying a device that's designed to last for years, not months.
Apple is run by the marketing department not the tech developers. Apple has an inventory of developed technology that the marketing department assess and determines when new features can and should be released to optimize revenues and profits. Apple’s ecosystem provides some benefits but is primarily designed to lock in users. RAM and SSD capacity is totally marketing driven. iPhone sales are projected to drop 15% this year. Mainly due to competition that is lower priced and offers similar capabilities. So yes Apple develops hardware, but its marketing that runs the business.
It seems clear now that Apple was caught on the back foot with AI.
What are you basing this on?
Apple has a lot of AI hiding in plain sight. Just because they aren’t like the rest of the market with their “me too” attitude about chatgpt doesn’t mean they don’t have AI already in place and waiting for bigger deployment.
Kuo doesn’t have a lot to go on. His best information is a good 3-4 levels away in the supply chain and not someone inside Apple because they’ve gotten good at plugging leaks.
Once you see the VP in person, you’ll get a better idea on the path Apple is going to take on AI and how it’s going to change the public’s perception of AI and VR compared to what’s available.
That’s the point. Nothing deployed.
Anything sitting in a back room means it isn't in the hands of users while others have shipping products.
2023 was the year of big launches in both generative and LLM AI.
Apple has had little show beyond ML which everyone has been using for years now.
Some posters here (perhaps with friends inside Apple) have stated that Apple is rushing (maybe scrambling would be a better term) to inject these kinds of AI into the product matrix.
On that I can't speak, just indicate what some have said.
Big launches of what and where? Search engines, with tucked away betas. Chat apps, who cares. Then we see some mild letter writing tools, yawn. What value am I missing here? What are your knockoff cell phones doing iPhone isn’t?
Have you been in hibernation?
This is one example:
"In meteorology, the Pangu Meteorology Model (or Pangu-Weather) is the first AI model to have surpassed state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in terms of accuracy. The prediction speed is also several orders of magnitude faster. In the past, predicting the trajectory of a typhoon over 10 days took 4 to 5 hours of simulation on a high-performance cluster of 3,000 servers. Now, the Pangu model can do it in 10 seconds on a single GPU of a single server, and with more accurate results."
Last year alone, Huawei released 30 updated Pangu LLMs, across key scientific, consumer and industrial scenarios.
People think of Google as a tech company. They certainly started that way, but now they are an advertising company with a technology subsidiary.
Similarly, Apple is a marketing company that happens to make hardware and software. Apple has a massive amount of developed and ready to go technology. The marketing people control the technology spigot and decide how much new technology to release in a certain time period. I guarantee Apple has a foldable iPhone developed and ready to go. However the marketing people have decided they don’t want to offer that technology at this time. It’s a numbers game of units sold, revenue and profitability optimization. Apple has an incentive to milk the deployed technology in their products for as long as possible so as to create predictable demand year after year. They know the vast majority of people don’t do annual phone upgrades, so they have models that are used to predict how many customers with older iPhones would be willing to upgrade to a new phone based on price and new functionality/technology. There are other companies with more advanced technology in their products than Apple. Apple doesn’t want new technology to be deployed any sooner than necessary. So you get year over year marginal improvements in speed, performance and capacity. Hence Apple’s focus on non-performance attributes used to sell phones - such as case colors, titanium construction, thinness, weight etc. These are designed to offer people superficial reasons to upgrade vs pure technology reasons. The smartphone market is saturated. The Apple marketing people may need to open up the technology spigot a bit more in the not too distant future. If they want to maintain or expand their annual sales volume.
Apple is a hardware company, and they've built an ecosystem around that hardware to support continued sales of that hardware at premium prices. They aren't "a marketing company that happens to make hardware and software." Companies set up like that regard everything they make as interchangeable widgets, and they shuffle them around with a singular goal of chasing quarterly numbers. Those companies ultimately sell overhyped crap, because they do not care what the widgets are. That is the antithesis of how Apple functions as a company.
Apple doesn't have a foldable iPhone "ready to go." Foldable phones serve no purpose other than fulfilling the wet dreams of marketing departments. They are a novelty that wears off the moment you've made the rounds of your friends to say "Look! It folds!" From an engineering and QC standpoint, a folding screen iPhone is a nightmare. Phones live in pockets, purses, and book bags, and they're brought out, handled, checked, dropped and generally abused over and over, all day, every day. Adding a physical weak point to a device in that category guarantees wear, damage and breakage at rates that would be orders of magnitude higher than the current solid slab iPhone design. While novelty sales may spike a single quarter's earnings, poor customer experiences later will do long-term damage. So no, Apple doesn't have a folding iPhone "ready to go," because they don't do novelty bells and whistles to satisfy the marketing department at the expense of long-term integrity. If they produce a folding screen device, it will a) serve a real purpose, and b) it will be a device like an iPad or MacBook that doesn't receive the level of fiddling, checking and general abuse that an iPhone does.
You are correct that Apple knows most people upgrade phones over a multi-year cycle, but it's not about "milking deployed technology." It's about providing customer satisfaction through actual value. That's why iPhone upgrades are always iterative. When a customer spends hundreds to over a thousand dollars for a phone this year, that customer should not be made angry next year because their one-year-old (or less) phone has been rendered obsolete by quantum leaps in the new phone. To the contrary, annual iOS updates actually add new features and capabilities that make last year's iPhone better, while hardware upgrades intentionally do not make owners of last year's model jealously feel like they wasted their money. Hardware upgrades are made such that cumulatively over three, four or five years, a new phone eventually becomes inviting to owners of an old phone. Owners of that old iPhone are then positively disposed to consider buying a new iPhone specifically because their experience informs them that they're buying a device that's designed to last for years, not months.
Apple is run by the marketing department not the tech developers. Apple has an inventory of developed technology that the marketing department assess and determines when new features can and should be released to optimize revenues and profits. Apple’s ecosystem provides some benefits but is primarily designed to lock in users. RAM and SSD capacity is totally marketing driven. iPhone sales are projected to drop 15% this year. Mainly due to competition that is lower priced and offers similar capabilities. So yes Apple develops hardware, but it’s marketing that runs the business.
so pretty much the same as iphone 12, 13, 14, 15 etc? unless you really care about how many cameras on the back?
To be fair the iPhone 14 was the worst iPhone update in the history of all iPhone updates. It was basically a rebadged iPhone 13 with a couple of minor upgrades. I'm sure the iPhone 16 can't be as shit as that, it's not really possible.
I used to replace my iPhone every year. By the time iPhone 16 comes out my 13P will be over 3 years old. Best as I have been able to determine ,worldwide, somewhere between 25 and 35% of all iPhones are more than 3 years old. IMHO this is the year many will upgrade (including myself).
The telephoto lens in the 16P will be the biggest feature upgrade, but for those of us that haven't upgraded the spatial audio/video capture will be valuable going forward (I pick up my VisionPro on Sat), and of course we have missed out on the already amazing cameras in the 15P.
I feel the same way about my Mac's (all are Intel) and two of them will get replaced with an M3 Studio (I need ray tracing and vectors for my work). The exception is my MBP with TouchBar, which I will keep until it dies.....
Ah yes, I also remember the good old days when a new iPhone was truly exciting. Every generation seemed a real leap over the prior versions with some killer feature that you just knew you really wanted.
Sadly those days are gone, it's a mature product now.
I used to replace my iPhone every year. By the time iPhone 16 comes out my 13P will be over 3 years old. Best as I have been able to determine ,worldwide, somewhere between 25 and 35% of all iPhones are more than 3 years old. IMHO this is the year many will upgrade (including myself).
The telephoto lens in the 16P will be the biggest feature upgrade, but for those of us that haven't upgraded the spatial audio/video capture will be valuable going forward (I pick up my VisionPro on Sat), and of course we have missed out on the already amazing cameras in the 15P.
I feel the same way about my Mac's (all are Intel) and two of them will get replaced with an M3 Studio (I need ray tracing and vectors for my work). The exception is my MBP with TouchBar, which I will keep until it dies.....
Ah yes, I also remember the good old days when a new iPhone was truly exciting. Every generation seemed a real leap over the prior versions with some killer feature that you just knew you really wanted.
Sadly those days are gone, it's a mature product now.
Seriously, it's like clockwork that with the annual release of a new iPhone model (or really a new model for any device in Apple's portfolio), comes the peanut-gallery griping about "incrementalism." The owner of last year's model is never the target customer for this year's model. These things are designed to last for several years. See my earlier post for the explanation about it being good business not to piss off customers by rendering their expensive, almost-new device obsolete.
With the iPhone, maybe the first couple of generations represented "a real leap over the prior versions" because the original iPhone was barely ready for showtime (much less, production) when it was introduced. But it wasn't and isn't the intent for each annual update to be like Steve Jobs' dramatic orginal iPhone intro. Perhaps it's his lingering reality distortion field that has you thinking that it was.
One of the big innovations with the release of iPhone was the fact that you would, with the purchase price of your iPhone, be getting not only ongoing iOS security patches, but several years of annual major updates to iOS, which would add new features and functionality to your existing phone... at no extra charge! This wasn't done before iPhone. For those of you too young to remember, you had to purchase operating system updates, if your older device was even compatible. (Talking about computers here. Most other electronics were just done the moment they shipped out of the factory.)
The iPhone was always intended to be something you'd keep for several years, not one that you'd feel compelled to replace annually.
I used to replace my iPhone every year. By the time iPhone 16 comes out my 13P will be over 3 years old. Best as I have been able to determine ,worldwide, somewhere between 25 and 35% of all iPhones are more than 3 years old. IMHO this is the year many will upgrade (including myself).
The telephoto lens in the 16P will be the biggest feature upgrade, but for those of us that haven't upgraded the spatial audio/video capture will be valuable going forward (I pick up my VisionPro on Sat), and of course we have missed out on the already amazing cameras in the 15P.
I feel the same way about my Mac's (all are Intel) and two of them will get replaced with an M3 Studio (I need ray tracing and vectors for my work). The exception is my MBP with TouchBar, which I will keep until it dies.....
Ah yes, I also remember the good old days when a new iPhone was truly exciting. Every generation seemed a real leap over the prior versions with some killer feature that you just knew you really wanted.
Sadly those days are gone, it's a mature product now.
Seriously, it's like clockwork that with the annual release of a new iPhone model (or really a new model for any device in Apple's portfolio), comes the peanut-gallery griping about "incrementalism." The owner of last year's model is never the target customer for this year's model. These things are designed to last for several years. See my earlier post for the explanation about it being good business not to piss off customers by rendering their expensive, almost-new device obsolete.
With the iPhone, maybe the first couple of generations represented "a real leap over the prior versions" because the original iPhone was barely ready for showtime (much less, production) when it was introduced. But it wasn't and isn't the intent for each annual update to be like Steve Jobs' dramatic orginal iPhone intro. Perhaps it's his lingering reality distortion field that has you thinking that it was.
One of the big innovations with the release of iPhone was the fact that you would, with the purchase price of your iPhone, be getting not only ongoing iOS security patches, but several years of annual major updates to iOS, which would add new features and functionality to your existing phone... at no extra charge! This wasn't done before iPhone. For those of you too young to remember, you had to purchase operating system updates, if your older device was even compatible. (Talking about computers here. Most other electronics were just done the moment they shipped out of the factory.)
The iPhone was always intended to be something you'd keep for several years, not one that you'd feel compelled to replace annually.
I’m not griping about incrementalism, simply recognising it for the fact that it is.
The iPhone was exciting at one stage, the updates year on year were meaningful and generally meant that you wanted to upgrade each year. It also helped that the iPhone used to be a lot cheaper as they had no Pro model. The best iPhone was the only new iPhone each year.
Things change, platforms mature and by default they are no longer exciting.
I’m starting to think the rounded edges of the iphone 6 through 11 series are better and more modern looking than the squared off look we have now. I seem to remember an article on this website by Andrew who stated the squared look is modern looking. I completely disagree. The rounded sides looked amazing, “modern” and perhaps most importantly were great to hold too. Hey Apple, can you bring it back please?
It seems clear now that Apple was caught on the back foot with AI.
What are you basing this on?
Apple has a lot of AI hiding in plain sight. Just because they aren’t like the rest of the market with their “me too” attitude about chatgpt doesn’t mean they don’t have AI already in place and waiting for bigger deployment.
Kuo doesn’t have a lot to go on. His best information is a good 3-4 levels away in the supply chain and not someone inside Apple because they’ve gotten good at plugging leaks.
Once you see the VP in person, you’ll get a better idea on the path Apple is going to take on AI and how it’s going to change the public’s perception of AI and VR compared to what’s available.
That’s the point. Nothing deployed.
Anything sitting in a back room means it isn't in the hands of users while others have shipping products.
2023 was the year of big launches in both generative and LLM AI.
Apple has had little show beyond ML which everyone has been using for years now.
Some posters here (perhaps with friends inside Apple) have stated that Apple is rushing (maybe scrambling would be a better term) to inject these kinds of AI into the product matrix.
On that I can't speak, just indicate what some have said.
Big launches of what and where? Search engines, with tucked away betas. Chat apps, who cares. Then we see some mild letter writing tools, yawn. What value am I missing here? What are your knockoff cell phones doing iPhone isn’t?
Have you been in hibernation?
This is one example:
"In meteorology, the Pangu Meteorology Model (or Pangu-Weather) is the first AI model to have surpassed state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in terms of accuracy. The prediction speed is also several orders of magnitude faster. In the past, predicting the trajectory of a typhoon over 10 days took 4 to 5 hours of simulation on a high-performance cluster of 3,000 servers. Now, the Pangu model can do it in 10 seconds on a single GPU of a single server, and with more accurate results."
Last year alone, Huawei released 30 updated Pangu LLMs, across key scientific, consumer and industrial scenarios.
It seems clear now that Apple was caught on the back foot with AI.
What are you basing this on?
Apple has a lot of AI hiding in plain sight. Just because they aren’t like the rest of the market with their “me too” attitude about chatgpt doesn’t mean they don’t have AI already in place and waiting for bigger deployment.
Kuo doesn’t have a lot to go on. His best information is a good 3-4 levels away in the supply chain and not someone inside Apple because they’ve gotten good at plugging leaks.
Once you see the VP in person, you’ll get a better idea on the path Apple is going to take on AI and how it’s going to change the public’s perception of AI and VR compared to what’s available.
That’s the point. Nothing deployed.
Anything sitting in a back room means it isn't in the hands of users while others have shipping products.
2023 was the year of big launches in both generative and LLM AI.
Apple has had little show beyond ML which everyone has been using for years now.
Some posters here (perhaps with friends inside Apple) have stated that Apple is rushing (maybe scrambling would be a better term) to inject these kinds of AI into the product matrix.
On that I can't speak, just indicate what some have said.
Big launches of what and where? Search engines, with tucked away betas. Chat apps, who cares. Then we see some mild letter writing tools, yawn. What value am I missing here? What are your knockoff cell phones doing iPhone isn’t?
Have you been in hibernation?
This is one example:
"In meteorology, the Pangu Meteorology Model (or Pangu-Weather) is the first AI model to have surpassed state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in terms of accuracy. The prediction speed is also several orders of magnitude faster. In the past, predicting the trajectory of a typhoon over 10 days took 4 to 5 hours of simulation on a high-performance cluster of 3,000 servers. Now, the Pangu model can do it in 10 seconds on a single GPU of a single server, and with more accurate results."
Last year alone, Huawei released 30 updated Pangu LLMs, across key scientific, consumer and industrial scenarios.
It seems clear now that Apple was caught on the back foot with AI.
What are you basing this on?
Apple has a lot of AI hiding in plain sight. Just because they aren’t like the rest of the market with their “me too” attitude about chatgpt doesn’t mean they don’t have AI already in place and waiting for bigger deployment.
Kuo doesn’t have a lot to go on. His best information is a good 3-4 levels away in the supply chain and not someone inside Apple because they’ve gotten good at plugging leaks.
Once you see the VP in person, you’ll get a better idea on the path Apple is going to take on AI and how it’s going to change the public’s perception of AI and VR compared to what’s available.
That’s the point. Nothing deployed.
Anything sitting in a back room means it isn't in the hands of users while others have shipping products.
2023 was the year of big launches in both generative and LLM AI.
Apple has had little show beyond ML which everyone has been using for years now.
Some posters here (perhaps with friends inside Apple) have stated that Apple is rushing (maybe scrambling would be a better term) to inject these kinds of AI into the product matrix.
On that I can't speak, just indicate what some have said.
Big launches of what and where? Search engines, with tucked away betas. Chat apps, who cares. Then we see some mild letter writing tools, yawn. What value am I missing here? What are your knockoff cell phones doing iPhone isn’t?
Have you been in hibernation?
This is one example:
"In meteorology, the Pangu Meteorology Model (or Pangu-Weather) is the first AI model to have surpassed state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in terms of accuracy. The prediction speed is also several orders of magnitude faster. In the past, predicting the trajectory of a typhoon over 10 days took 4 to 5 hours of simulation on a high-performance cluster of 3,000 servers. Now, the Pangu model can do it in 10 seconds on a single GPU of a single server, and with more accurate results."
Last year alone, Huawei released 30 updated Pangu LLMs, across key scientific, consumer and industrial scenarios.
Apple still has a way to go to catch the companies which are pushing the limits.
Funny how Huawei if able to accomplish such a broad spectrum of R&D and innovation in an autocracy on a budget less than than of Apple, but certainly less than the tech giants combined.
It's as if the Government and Huawei are one...and much of that R&D finds its way in to PLA weapons systems. Fair enough, civil / military fusion is a thing in China, hence the various bans from the West on technology transfer, but hard to imagine that U.S. tech giants would be involved in the same way unless the U.S. was on a war footing.
I doubt that there could be anything analogous to Huawei in the EU, as it micromanages competition, and while the U.S. has spawned many tech giants, all have accomplished their growth and scale via simple capitalist mechanisms, even as a few of those early tech giants were driven by the Cold War.
It seems clear now that Apple was caught on the back foot with AI.
What are you basing this on?
Apple has a lot of AI hiding in plain sight. Just because they aren’t like the rest of the market with their “me too” attitude about chatgpt doesn’t mean they don’t have AI already in place and waiting for bigger deployment.
Kuo doesn’t have a lot to go on. His best information is a good 3-4 levels away in the supply chain and not someone inside Apple because they’ve gotten good at plugging leaks.
Once you see the VP in person, you’ll get a better idea on the path Apple is going to take on AI and how it’s going to change the public’s perception of AI and VR compared to what’s available.
That’s the point. Nothing deployed.
Anything sitting in a back room means it isn't in the hands of users while others have shipping products.
2023 was the year of big launches in both generative and LLM AI.
Apple has had little show beyond ML which everyone has been using for years now.
Some posters here (perhaps with friends inside Apple) have stated that Apple is rushing (maybe scrambling would be a better term) to inject these kinds of AI into the product matrix.
On that I can't speak, just indicate what some have said.
Big launches of what and where? Search engines, with tucked away betas. Chat apps, who cares. Then we see some mild letter writing tools, yawn. What value am I missing here? What are your knockoff cell phones doing iPhone isn’t?
Have you been in hibernation?
This is one example:
"In meteorology, the Pangu Meteorology Model (or Pangu-Weather) is the first AI model to have surpassed state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in terms of accuracy. The prediction speed is also several orders of magnitude faster. In the past, predicting the trajectory of a typhoon over 10 days took 4 to 5 hours of simulation on a high-performance cluster of 3,000 servers. Now, the Pangu model can do it in 10 seconds on a single GPU of a single server, and with more accurate results."
Last year alone, Huawei released 30 updated Pangu LLMs, across key scientific, consumer and industrial scenarios.
Apple still has a way to go to catch the companies which are pushing the limits.
Funny how Huawei if able to accomplish such a broad spectrum of R&D and innovation in an autocracy on a budget less than than of Apple, but certainly less than the tech giants combined.
It's as if the Government and Huawei are one...and much of that R&D finds its way in to PLA weapons systems. Fair enough, civil / military fusion is a thing in China, hence the various bans from the West on technology transfer, but hard to imagine that U.S. tech giants would be involved in the same way unless the U.S. was on a war footing.
I doubt that there could be anything analogous to Huawei in the EU, as it micromanages competition, and while the U.S. has spawned many tech giants, all have accomplished their growth and scale via simple capitalist mechanisms, even as a few of those early tech giants were driven by the Cold War.
Most of that is irrelevant and a bit wacky. Why throw so much speculation into this?
I answered a simple but off the mark comment. That was it.
The R&D budget is from revenues. A comparatively large amount in percentage terms. Far higher than Apple.
It is far more than a CE company and investigates foundational technologies which bleed over to many of its operations. Apple hasn't really been there.
The AI example is one. Wireless is another. File systems. Imaging. Optical. Lasers. Robotics. Sensors. Storage. Batteries. PV...
Through necessity, it is now getting into EDA, chip packaging and all other aspects of semiconductor manufacturing.
I mentioned a prime example yesterday. 6G and network sensing. That will have many use cases in ICT, industry and CE.
It's all about strategic planning plus having a workforce of which over 50% are engineers, scientists etc.
Being a private company also affords stability in troubled times.
Huawei has been working to overcome several universal problems that have been around for decades.
Apple hasn't really been in that.
Shannon's Law, Von Neumann Architecture limitations, body interfaces...
Here is a sprinkling of what is being worked on right now (it's a few years old now) :
How do machines perceive the world, and can we build models that teach machines how to understand the world?
How can we better understand the physiological mechanisms of the human body, including how the eight systems of the bodywork, as well as human intent and intelligence?
New sensing and control capabilities, e.g., brain-computer interfaces, muscle-computer interfaces, 3D displays, virtual touch, virtual smell, and virtual taste
Real-time, unobtrusive blood pressure, blood sugar, and heart monitoring, and strong AI-assisted discoveries in chemical pharmaceuticals, biopharmaceuticals, and vaccines
Application-centric, efficient, automated, and intelligent software for greater value and a better experience
Reaching and circumventing Shannon’s limit to enable efficient, high-performance connectivity both regionally and globally
Adaptive and efficient computing models, non-Von Neumann architectures, unconventional components, and explainable and debuggable AI
Inventing new molecules, catalysts, and components with intelligent computing
Developing new processes that surpass CMOS, cost less, and are more efficient
Safe, efficient energy conversion and storage, as well as on-demand services
That’s in their own words. Breakthroughs in Shannon's law and Von Neumann have already been achieved.
It seems clear now that Apple was caught on the back foot with AI.
What are you basing this on?
Apple has a lot of AI hiding in plain sight. Just because they aren’t like the rest of the market with their “me too” attitude about chatgpt doesn’t mean they don’t have AI already in place and waiting for bigger deployment.
Kuo doesn’t have a lot to go on. His best information is a good 3-4 levels away in the supply chain and not someone inside Apple because they’ve gotten good at plugging leaks.
Once you see the VP in person, you’ll get a better idea on the path Apple is going to take on AI and how it’s going to change the public’s perception of AI and VR compared to what’s available.
That’s the point. Nothing deployed.
Anything sitting in a back room means it isn't in the hands of users while others have shipping products.
2023 was the year of big launches in both generative and LLM AI.
Apple has had little show beyond ML which everyone has been using for years now.
Some posters here (perhaps with friends inside Apple) have stated that Apple is rushing (maybe scrambling would be a better term) to inject these kinds of AI into the product matrix.
On that I can't speak, just indicate what some have said.
Big launches of what and where? Search engines, with tucked away betas. Chat apps, who cares. Then we see some mild letter writing tools, yawn. What value am I missing here? What are your knockoff cell phones doing iPhone isn’t?
Have you been in hibernation?
This is one example:
"In meteorology, the Pangu Meteorology Model (or Pangu-Weather) is the first AI model to have surpassed state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in terms of accuracy. The prediction speed is also several orders of magnitude faster. In the past, predicting the trajectory of a typhoon over 10 days took 4 to 5 hours of simulation on a high-performance cluster of 3,000 servers. Now, the Pangu model can do it in 10 seconds on a single GPU of a single server, and with more accurate results."
Last year alone, Huawei released 30 updated Pangu LLMs, across key scientific, consumer and industrial scenarios.
Apple still has a way to go to catch the companies which are pushing the limits.
Funny how Huawei if able to accomplish such a broad spectrum of R&D and innovation in an autocracy on a budget less than than of Apple, but certainly less than the tech giants combined.
It's as if the Government and Huawei are one...and much of that R&D finds its way in to PLA weapons systems. Fair enough, civil / military fusion is a thing in China, hence the various bans from the West on technology transfer, but hard to imagine that U.S. tech giants would be involved in the same way unless the U.S. was on a war footing.
I doubt that there could be anything analogous to Huawei in the EU, as it micromanages competition, and while the U.S. has spawned many tech giants, all have accomplished their growth and scale via simple capitalist mechanisms, even as a few of those early tech giants were driven by the Cold War.
Most of that is irrelevant and a bit wacky. Why throw so much speculation into this?
I answered a simple but off the mark comment. That was it.
The R&D budget is from revenues. A comparatively large amount in percentage terms. Far higher than Apple.
It is far more than a CE company and investigates foundational technologies which bleed over to many of its operations. Apple hasn't really been there.
The AI example is one. Wireless is another. File systems. Imaging. Optical. Lasers. Robotics. Sensors. Storage. Batteries. PV...
Through necessity, it is now getting into EDA, chip packaging and all other aspects of semiconductor manufacturing.
I mentioned a prime example yesterday. 6G and network sensing. That will have many use cases in ICT, industry and CE.
It's all about strategic planning plus having a workforce of which over 50% are engineers, scientists etc.
Being a private company also affords stability in troubled times.
Huawei has been working to overcome several universal problems that have been around for decades.
Apple hasn't really been in that.
Shannon's Law, Von Neumann Architecture limitations, body interfaces...
Here is a sprinkling of what is being worked on right now (it's a few years old now) :
How do machines perceive the world, and can we build models that teach machines how to understand the world?
How can we better understand the physiological mechanisms of the human body, including how the eight systems of the bodywork, as well as human intent and intelligence?
New sensing and control capabilities, e.g., brain-computer interfaces, muscle-computer interfaces, 3D displays, virtual touch, virtual smell, and virtual taste
Real-time, unobtrusive blood pressure, blood sugar, and heart monitoring, and strong AI-assisted discoveries in chemical pharmaceuticals, biopharmaceuticals, and vaccines
Application-centric, efficient, automated, and intelligent software for greater value and a better experience
Reaching and circumventing Shannon’s limit to enable efficient, high-performance connectivity both regionally and globally
Adaptive and efficient computing models, non-Von Neumann architectures, unconventional components, and explainable and debuggable AI
Inventing new molecules, catalysts, and components with intelligent computing
Developing new processes that surpass CMOS, cost less, and are more efficient
Safe, efficient energy conversion and storage, as well as on-demand services
That’s in their own words. Breakthroughs in Shannon's law and Von Neumann have already been achieved.
Your R&D numbers are reinforcing the fact that Huawei is operating in an environment where it is Government subsidized; no news there. Apple's higher actual R&D is directly a result of profitability and high revenues. No news there either.
You seem fine with the PRC / Huawei connection. I am not. Still, neither of us can know, since China and Huawei have very little transparency.
It seems clear now that Apple was caught on the back foot with AI.
What are you basing this on?
Apple has a lot of AI hiding in plain sight. Just because they aren’t like the rest of the market with their “me too” attitude about chatgpt doesn’t mean they don’t have AI already in place and waiting for bigger deployment.
Kuo doesn’t have a lot to go on. His best information is a good 3-4 levels away in the supply chain and not someone inside Apple because they’ve gotten good at plugging leaks.
Once you see the VP in person, you’ll get a better idea on the path Apple is going to take on AI and how it’s going to change the public’s perception of AI and VR compared to what’s available.
That’s the point. Nothing deployed.
Anything sitting in a back room means it isn't in the hands of users while others have shipping products.
2023 was the year of big launches in both generative and LLM AI.
Apple has had little show beyond ML which everyone has been using for years now.
Some posters here (perhaps with friends inside Apple) have stated that Apple is rushing (maybe scrambling would be a better term) to inject these kinds of AI into the product matrix.
On that I can't speak, just indicate what some have said.
Big launches of what and where? Search engines, with tucked away betas. Chat apps, who cares. Then we see some mild letter writing tools, yawn. What value am I missing here? What are your knockoff cell phones doing iPhone isn’t?
Have you been in hibernation?
This is one example:
"In meteorology, the Pangu Meteorology Model (or Pangu-Weather) is the first AI model to have surpassed state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in terms of accuracy. The prediction speed is also several orders of magnitude faster. In the past, predicting the trajectory of a typhoon over 10 days took 4 to 5 hours of simulation on a high-performance cluster of 3,000 servers. Now, the Pangu model can do it in 10 seconds on a single GPU of a single server, and with more accurate results."
Last year alone, Huawei released 30 updated Pangu LLMs, across key scientific, consumer and industrial scenarios.
Apple still has a way to go to catch the companies which are pushing the limits.
Funny how Huawei if able to accomplish such a broad spectrum of R&D and innovation in an autocracy on a budget less than than of Apple, but certainly less than the tech giants combined.
It's as if the Government and Huawei are one...and much of that R&D finds its way in to PLA weapons systems. Fair enough, civil / military fusion is a thing in China, hence the various bans from the West on technology transfer, but hard to imagine that U.S. tech giants would be involved in the same way unless the U.S. was on a war footing.
I doubt that there could be anything analogous to Huawei in the EU, as it micromanages competition, and while the U.S. has spawned many tech giants, all have accomplished their growth and scale via simple capitalist mechanisms, even as a few of those early tech giants were driven by the Cold War.
Most of that is irrelevant and a bit wacky. Why throw so much speculation into this?
I answered a simple but off the mark comment. That was it.
The R&D budget is from revenues. A comparatively large amount in percentage terms. Far higher than Apple.
It is far more than a CE company and investigates foundational technologies which bleed over to many of its operations. Apple hasn't really been there.
The AI example is one. Wireless is another. File systems. Imaging. Optical. Lasers. Robotics. Sensors. Storage. Batteries. PV...
Through necessity, it is now getting into EDA, chip packaging and all other aspects of semiconductor manufacturing.
I mentioned a prime example yesterday. 6G and network sensing. That will have many use cases in ICT, industry and CE.
It's all about strategic planning plus having a workforce of which over 50% are engineers, scientists etc.
Being a private company also affords stability in troubled times.
Huawei has been working to overcome several universal problems that have been around for decades.
Apple hasn't really been in that.
Shannon's Law, Von Neumann Architecture limitations, body interfaces...
Here is a sprinkling of what is being worked on right now (it's a few years old now) :
How do machines perceive the world, and can we build models that teach machines how to understand the world?
How can we better understand the physiological mechanisms of the human body, including how the eight systems of the bodywork, as well as human intent and intelligence?
New sensing and control capabilities, e.g., brain-computer interfaces, muscle-computer interfaces, 3D displays, virtual touch, virtual smell, and virtual taste
Real-time, unobtrusive blood pressure, blood sugar, and heart monitoring, and strong AI-assisted discoveries in chemical pharmaceuticals, biopharmaceuticals, and vaccines
Application-centric, efficient, automated, and intelligent software for greater value and a better experience
Reaching and circumventing Shannon’s limit to enable efficient, high-performance connectivity both regionally and globally
Adaptive and efficient computing models, non-Von Neumann architectures, unconventional components, and explainable and debuggable AI
Inventing new molecules, catalysts, and components with intelligent computing
Developing new processes that surpass CMOS, cost less, and are more efficient
Safe, efficient energy conversion and storage, as well as on-demand services
That’s in their own words. Breakthroughs in Shannon's law and Von Neumann have already been achieved.
Your R&D numbers are reinforcing the fact that Huawei is operating in an environment where it is Government subsidized; no news there. Apple's higher actual R&D is directly a result of profitability and high revenues. No news there either.
You seem fine with the PRC / Huawei connection. I am not. Still, neither of us can know, since China and Huawei have very little transparency.
There you go again.
The numbers are provided every year!
But on the actual topic of this thread, 'technology and being compelling' you haven't provided much at all.
AI, for all its potential negatives, is doing a lot of good too. I've given you some good examples. Google and Microsoft are advancing compelling solutions too. But I'm no expert on either of those companies. Or Samsung.
As yet, Apple hasn't shown much and they obviously aren't liking all the attention everyone else is getting on AI.
It's very similar to the 'innovation' situation and Phil's 'my ass' comment from years ago.
I wonder if Apple will do a Phil at WWDC?
But the reality today is that Apple hasn't moved with a real equivalent product. We have to accept it. That's life. No big deal and they shouldn't care about what others are achieving if they also have their own stuff.
Tim's need to put out comments at every opportunity on the subject is a bit silly IMO and does have a hint of 'Yikes! We need to say something' to it.
If you want to release things 'when they're ready and not talk beforehand' , then don't talk.
Like he hasn't mentioned a car for example. Or progress on the 5G modem (other areas where they aren't competing).
The simple fact remains though. Apple hasn't delivered anything like I've mentioned here and what I've mentioned is as far from 'meh' as you're going to get.
Saying we'll have something in June isn't necessary.
From the outside, it definitely looks like Apple is worried about all the attention AI is getting.
Anyway. Advances, like those related to Shannon's Law or non Von Neumann architecture, are absolutely huge advances. AI and semantic communications are exciting new areas of investigation.
The integration of photonic and electronic technologies. Algorithm
breakthroughs in holographic optics etc.
It will all reach or impact us at some point and that's good.
Comments
LOL... foldable iPhones are such hot items. Kuo has been wrong almost as often as he has been right. So slightly better than flipping a coin. Yet he is revered by Wall Street advisors who make money only when shares move. Announcing this before results is clearly intended to influence share prices.
This is one example:
"In meteorology, the Pangu Meteorology Model (or Pangu-Weather) is the first AI model to have surpassed state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in terms of accuracy. The prediction speed is also several orders of magnitude faster. In the past, predicting the trajectory of a typhoon over 10 days took 4 to 5 hours of simulation on a high-performance cluster of 3,000 servers. Now, the Pangu model can do it in 10 seconds on a single GPU of a single server, and with more accurate results."
Last year alone, Huawei released 30 updated Pangu LLMs, across key scientific, consumer and industrial scenarios.
Ah yes, I also remember the good old days when a new iPhone was truly exciting. Every generation seemed a real leap over the prior versions with some killer feature that you just knew you really wanted.
Sadly those days are gone, it's a mature product now.
With the iPhone, maybe the first couple of generations represented "a real leap over the prior versions" because the original iPhone was barely ready for showtime (much less, production) when it was introduced. But it wasn't and isn't the intent for each annual update to be like Steve Jobs' dramatic orginal iPhone intro. Perhaps it's his lingering reality distortion field that has you thinking that it was.
The iPhone was always intended to be something you'd keep for several years, not one that you'd feel compelled to replace annually.
The iPhone was exciting at one stage, the updates year on year were meaningful and generally meant that you wanted to upgrade each year. It also helped that the iPhone used to be a lot cheaper as they had no Pro model. The best iPhone was the only new iPhone each year.
Things change, platforms mature and by default they are no longer exciting.
But, you wouldn't note that because you are a big Huawei supporter.
Better link to details;
https://www.maginative.com/article/google-deepminds-new-ai-model-delivers-hyper-accurate-10-day-weather-forecasts-in-under-a-minute/
These things leapfrog each other.
The point is, they are out there providing a service.
Did you understand what I was replying to?
FinTech is another example:
https://fintechmagazine.com/company-reports/huawei-cloud-and-pangu-ai-model-reshaping-finance-industry
More?
Mining.
https://im-mining.com/2023/09/05/huaweis-pangu-mining-model-and-the-introduction-of-factory-scale-mining-ai/
Agriculture. Health. Science. ICT. Manufacturing. Aviation. Airports. Ports. Cars. Consumer products etc
This is AI applied to many areas and not in the way StrangeDays is implying. There is nothing 'meh' about this.
LLM's are being used in earbuds. AI is being used not only in the design of products but also in their operation.
Take the Metaline Antenna. AI was used in its creation and AI is used in its operation to squeeze the most out of the signals.
https://mg.co.za/article/2024-01-23-the-huawei-metaline-antenna-how-the-huawei-matebook-d-16-takes-wireless-connectivity-to-the-next-level/
Apple still has a way to go to catch the companies which are pushing the limits.
It's as if the Government and Huawei are one...and much of that R&D finds its way in to PLA weapons systems. Fair enough, civil / military fusion is a thing in China, hence the various bans from the West on technology transfer, but hard to imagine that U.S. tech giants would be involved in the same way unless the U.S. was on a war footing.
I doubt that there could be anything analogous to Huawei in the EU, as it micromanages competition, and while the U.S. has spawned many tech giants, all have accomplished their growth and scale via simple capitalist mechanisms, even as a few of those early tech giants were driven by the Cold War.
I answered a simple but off the mark comment. That was it.
The R&D budget is from revenues. A comparatively large amount in percentage terms. Far higher than Apple.
It is far more than a CE company and investigates foundational technologies which bleed over to many of its operations. Apple hasn't really been there.
The AI example is one. Wireless is another. File systems. Imaging. Optical. Lasers. Robotics. Sensors. Storage. Batteries. PV...
Through necessity, it is now getting into EDA, chip packaging and all other aspects of semiconductor manufacturing.
I mentioned a prime example yesterday. 6G and network sensing. That will have many use cases in ICT, industry and CE.
It's all about strategic planning plus having a workforce of which over 50% are engineers, scientists etc.
Being a private company also affords stability in troubled times.
Huawei has been working to overcome several universal problems that have been around for decades.
Apple hasn't really been in that.
Shannon's Law, Von Neumann Architecture limitations, body interfaces...
Here is a sprinkling of what is being worked on right now (it's a few years old now) :
That’s in their own words. Breakthroughs in Shannon's law and Von Neumann have already been achieved.
You seem fine with the PRC / Huawei connection. I am not. Still, neither of us can know, since China and Huawei have very little transparency.
The numbers are provided every year!
But on the actual topic of this thread, 'technology and being compelling' you haven't provided much at all.
AI, for all its potential negatives, is doing a lot of good too. I've given you some good examples. Google and Microsoft are advancing compelling solutions too. But I'm no expert on either of those companies. Or Samsung.
As yet, Apple hasn't shown much and they obviously aren't liking all the attention everyone else is getting on AI.
It's very similar to the 'innovation' situation and Phil's 'my ass' comment from years ago.
I wonder if Apple will do a Phil at WWDC?
But the reality today is that Apple hasn't moved with a real equivalent product. We have to accept it. That's life. No big deal and they shouldn't care about what others are achieving if they also have their own stuff.
Tim's need to put out comments at every opportunity on the subject is a bit silly IMO and does have a hint of 'Yikes! We need to say something' to it.
If you want to release things 'when they're ready and not talk beforehand' , then don't talk.
Like he hasn't mentioned a car for example. Or progress on the 5G modem (other areas where they aren't competing).
The simple fact remains though. Apple hasn't delivered anything like I've mentioned here and what I've mentioned is as far from 'meh' as you're going to get.
Saying we'll have something in June isn't necessary.
From the outside, it definitely looks like Apple is worried about all the attention AI is getting.
Anyway. Advances, like those related to Shannon's Law or non Von Neumann architecture, are absolutely huge advances. AI and semantic communications are exciting new areas of investigation.
The integration of photonic and electronic technologies. Algorithm
It will all reach or impact us at some point and that's good.