Apple Vision Pro followup could be 18 months away

rezwits

mattinoz said:

omasou said:

Marvin said:

kkqd1337 said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if v2 was even 4 or 5 years away 

One of the biggest improvements will be getting the retail price down to be able to ship more units. OLED panel cost drops when yield improves:

https://www.techpowerup.com/309200/oled-tv-prices-predicted-to-fall-in-2023-and-2024#g309200-2

It's a slow drop but roughly 20% every 2 years.

Apple Vision parts cost $1700 -> $3500 retail. The OLED displays are said to be $700. If they can get a 30% drop in 2 years, they can drop retail price to $3k.

It doesn't sound like a lot but Vision Pro 1 refurbs will go down to $2500 or less.

M4 in 2025 will also be more efficient than M2 e.g 2/3 the power usage at the same performance.

AVP1 (2024) = $3499, 2.5 hour battery life, 600g, M2 (5nm), component cost = $1700
AVP2 (2026) = $2999, 3.5 hour battery life, 500g, M4 (3nm), component cost = $1500, AVP1 refurb = $2500
AVP3 (2028) = $2499, 4.5 hour battery life, 400g, M6 (2nm), component cost = $1300, AVP2 refurb = $2000
AVP4 (2030) = $1999, 5.5 hour battery life, 300g, M8 (1.4nm), component cost = $1000, AVP3 refurb = $1500

I don't see the AVP price coming down and I hope I am wrong. You probably know better than me but once Apple sets a price point, that's the price. The only exception that I have noticed is that Apple may increase the base RAM or SSD size.

Instead I'd imagine they will release an AV less the external OLED screens and other bits which I don't particularly find useful but others might in an office scenario? But let's be realistic, if they improve the persona to the point where I can have a spatial FaceTime call and feel like I'm there in a crowd of folks then the external OLEDs only add complexity, weight and cost

They could offer a certified Refurb market for this and other products as an "Environmental initiative" to hit a lower price point in the meantime. 

Refurbs would let the new owner order face shields and headbands to suit themselves. They could even offer customer-to-customer transactions using AppleCash and take a fee. It would be a genuine sustainability measure for them to back the life span of their own products.

I think refurbs will be used by employees, to further develop and give Apple more units to work with...

jume

Who cares....

danox

tmay said:

I'd expect that Apple will skip M3 for the M4, so that timeframe would make sense.

The M4 would increase efficiency and performance, and possibly allow an embedded battery for the same 2 hours of use the the VP sees.

The Battery is fine where it is......doesn't need to be next to your head.