M4 MacBook Pro rumored to already be in development at Apple
Apple released new MacBook Pro models with M3 in October 2023, but the company isn't ready to slow down yet. Rumors suggest that the M4 MacBook Pro lineup is already in development.
Apple is already working on the M4 MacBook Pro
The transition to Apple Silicon from Intel left many unknowns, like how often Apple would iterate and release chipsets. The COVID-19 pandemic threw a curveball and ruined any ability to predict the cycle early on, but rumors of M4 entering development hint at what to expect going forward.
Apple Silicon entered its third generation in October 2023 with the announcement of three chipsets -- M3, M3 Pro, and M3 Max. It was the first time Apple announced three chips at once, leaving only the M3 Ultra for a later date.
There are rumors of an M4 entering development, even though the M3 MacBook Air was released only days prior. Apple is always pushing for the next product internally, but it raises the frequency question again.
Apple's Silicon release cycle
The M1 release cycle was extended for multiple reasons, primarily because of the pandemic and how it affected the supply chain. M1 was first revealed in November 2020, and the release cycle was completed in March 2022.
The M2 underwent an accelerated release cycle, starting with its reveal in June 2022 and ending with the M2 Ultra in June 2023 -- just one year later.
Mere months pass, and M3 is revealed in October 2023 alongside M3 Pro and M3 Max. It seems M3 Ultra could be revealed somewhere between June and November 2024.
That leaves M4 to be announced no sooner than late 2024 or early 2025. It seems incredible that Apple would iterate Mac chipsets and product lines annually, but it already does so with iPhone.
A rumor hinting at what's next
Recall that one of the significant reasons Apple pivoted to Apple Silicon was to control the product pipeline and know when new chips were coming. Intel did not give the company such an affordance, leaving some product lines to languish as chips were delayed repeatedly.
The M4 rumor comes from a throwaway comment at the end of an Apple Car Q&A held by Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. This tidbit was first covered by MacRumors.
You don't have to have deep industry sources to know Apple is working on M4, but the timing hasn't always been predictable. Gurman stated that M4 "just started formal development," providing a glimpse into the potential release timeline for the next generation of Apple Silicon.
Rumor Score: Likely
Read on AppleInsider
Comments
Apple plans their products years in advance. It's not like they start a year or less before they announce it.
https://qz.com/196005/the-steve-jobs-email-that-outlined-apples-strategy-a-year-before-his-death
These things don’t just fall out of Jozwiak’s ass periodically.
It is too soon to say this, but I will anyway: the silicon production cadence is set now. The only real unknown (in my view) is whether or not every Mac will get every generation of Apple M silicon, every 18 months (not all at once, but spread out within that period). I think probably yes (the M2 iMac was a casualty of the global pandemic), but we'll see.
Here's my predictions (within the current Pro/Max/Ultra structure, that is, leaving out the possibility of some kind of "Extreme" Mac Pro configuration):
N3E is in volume production now, but Apple isn’t using it, as far as we know. N3P is a small adjustment to N3E, and Apple is in a unique position to leapfrog onto it, instead of using N3E like everyone else.
I wonder, though, if Apple will use N3E this year, N3P next year, and N2 might only come in 2026. As you note, Apple went three years on different spins of TSMC's 5nm process. The same thing might happen with 3nm.
According to https://www.anandtech.com/show/21241/tsmc-2nm-update-two-fabs-in-construction-one-awaiting-government-approval, volume production on N2 isn't planned until 2H of 2025 which seems too late to support a 2025 iPhone launch.
In order to hit a product launch in mid 25 volume production of the chip would have had to begin months earlier. Allowing for several revisions to fix issues before you go to volume means you have to have taped out that initial rev sometime in 24. That means the design must be well advanced now.
That makes sense as they must be at least in the test phase if not in production ramp up for the A18 in order to hit a product launch in sep/oct 24.
Entering development? This is just silly. Manufacturers of tech products that are updated on an ongoing basis do not wait until after the release of the most current version before starting development on the next. The lag times between releases would be ridiculous. Do you think Apple made the momentous move to its own silicon under the guise of, "Well, let's just see how M1 does after we release it, and if it seems to go okay, then we'll start developing M2." My guess--although, admittedly, Tim doesn't share the Apple roadmap with me--is that Apple was in development on M4 when M1 was released.