Apple's earnings will be flat ahead of AI-enabled iPhone

Posted:
in iPhone

Investment analyst firm TD Cowen is predicting that Apple's next earnings call will show little growth, but says forthcoming AI features could prove significant.

iPhone 15 Pro colorful lineup
iPhone 15 Pro range



Analysts such as JP Morgan in March 2024, and Morgan Stanley in November 2023, are consistently predicting that AI will boost Apple's iPhone sales. JP Morgan, though, has predicted that this boost will come in 2025 with the iPhone 17 range.

Now in a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, TD Cowen repeats the expectation of an AI boost, but is less bullish about it than others, despite keeping its $220 Apple price target. TD Cowen set that price in late 2023, based in part on increasing sales in India, and it is again expecting to see shipment in that country increase.

Its analysts even argue that the declining iPhone demand in China may be at least somewhat countered by increased sales in what it describes as the "underpenetrated" India.

Overall, TD Cowen expects that global iPhone sales will be down approximately 3% year over year, it predicts a seasonal recovery around the launch of the iPhone 16 range. It also predicts that Mac sales will have dropped around 4% year over year, while Services will have grown around 11%.

TD Cowen expects that iPad sales will have stabilized, even ahead of the May 7, 2024 launch of the new models.

Its analysts, though, say that its supply chain sources back up claims that demand for the Apple Vision Pro is falling. So far the Apple Vision Pro is only available in the US, however, and demand will always be highest at the time of launch.

They also say that the Apple Watch has been affected by the US import ban and removal of the blood oxygen feature.



Read on AppleInsider

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 5
    bala1234bala1234 Posts: 147member
    Seriously what is even a 'AI enabled' iPhone? Sorry about the rant. I know the author is only reporting the news. But I am tired  of hearing 'AI' as it own feature/thing. I really hope Apple is a able to better convey real features rather than just generic "AI".
    watto_cobraM68000Alex1N
  • Reply 2 of 5
    tyler82tyler82 Posts: 1,105member
    bala1234 said:
    Seriously what is even a 'AI enabled' iPhone? Sorry about the rant. I know the author is only reporting the news. But I am tired  of hearing 'AI' as it own feature/thing. I really hope Apple is a able to better convey real features rather than just generic "AI".
    Hopefully it means my AirPods can tell between my heavy breathing during a workout and actually speaking words when it decides to lower my music volume for "conversation awareness" 
    Alex1N
  • Reply 3 of 5
    M68000M68000 Posts: 783member
    bala1234 said:
    Seriously what is even a 'AI enabled' iPhone? Sorry about the rant. I know the author is only reporting the news. But I am tired  of hearing 'AI' as it own feature/thing. I really hope Apple is a able to better convey real features rather than just generic "AI".
    I’m with you.  Have been hearing about “AI” for probably at least 30 years.  The hype train is full speed ahead.  AI this and AI that.  If you listen to the news AI is here and just taking over everything LOL. Last time i checked,  computers still behave programmatically and based on true or false states. The hype is just beyond belief.  It seems wall street loves this kind of thing and remains a driving force behind the hype,  when few people if any, know what AI is or can do.  Or appear to do.

    The famous investor Warren Buffett said the following about bitcoin - it produces nothing and is therefore worth nothing.  Well,  let’s see what AI can do or can’t do.
    edited April 29 Alex1N
  • Reply 4 of 5
    bala1234 said:
    Seriously what is even a 'AI enabled' iPhone? Sorry about the rant. I know the author is only reporting the news. But I am tired  of hearing 'AI' as it own feature/thing. I really hope Apple is a able to better convey real features rather than just generic "AI".
    Every enterprise needs a story telling. Apple has not had any stories up to now. 

  • Reply 5 of 5
    MarvinMarvin Posts: 15,405moderator
    M68000 said:
    bala1234 said:
    Seriously what is even a 'AI enabled' iPhone? Sorry about the rant. I know the author is only reporting the news. But I am tired  of hearing 'AI' as it own feature/thing. I really hope Apple is a able to better convey real features rather than just generic "AI".
    I’m with you.  Have been hearing about “AI” for probably at least 30 years.  The hype train is full speed ahead.  AI this and AI that.  If you listen to the news AI is here and just taking over everything LOL. Last time i checked,  computers still behave programmatically and based on true or false states. The hype is just beyond belief.  It seems wall street loves this kind of thing and remains a driving force behind the hype,  when few people if any, know what AI is or can do.  Or appear to do.

    The famous investor Warren Buffett said the following about bitcoin - it produces nothing and is therefore worth nothing.  Well,  let’s see what AI can do or can’t do.
    It has taken a while for compute performance to reach a suitable level.

    The brain has billions of neurons:

    https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-flops/

    100 billion neurons, 1000 connections, 200 calculations per second. The estimates there put this processing power around 10^16 FLOPs or 10,000 TFLOPs, some estimates are higher. Personal computers today are around 10-100 TFLOPs. 30 years ago, GPUs were well below 1 GFLOPs ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nvidia_graphics_processing_units ).

    To train a model needs even more power:

    https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/elon-musk-says-the-next-generation-grok-3-model-will-require-100000-nvidia-h100-gpus-to-train

    Training is simulating what a human goes through from birth to adulthood:

    https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/elon-musk-on-parenting-says-raising-a-kid-is-18-years-of-prompt-engineering-5459887

    People often overestimate human intelligence. Babies know absolutely nothing and start out with a very powerful training engine. From birth they are bombarded 24/7 with patterns of association. Sounds matching shapes and colors, all at high fidelity audio and Retina quality visuals and it's clean training data that is curated by thousands of years of human development. It's also data weighted by importance, driven by motivations - hunger, curiosity, survival, affinity etc.

    It's all just data patterns in the end though and all it needs is more power and accurate simulations. The right simulations depend on people coming up with algorithms that behave like how a brain works.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transformer_(deep_learning_architecture)

    When people do creative work, they are mixing patterns together. These patterns are accumulated through a lifetime of training.

    Today, we have enough compute power in data centers to build powerful enough simulations to be useful.

    https://www.sciencealert.com/worlds-first-human-brain-scale-supercomputer-will-go-online-in-2024

    Realistic voices is one application:

    https://elevenlabs.io/

    These can be used to read books in any accent and any language. They can be used to do real-time two-way translation.

    AI models will change how people search for information. Search engines are link services that rank information based on how popular they are and often they contain garbage links that are marketed well. AI language models are like a personal assistant with huge amounts of data and can generate conversations answering questions on any topic.

    The image generators are being used by artists:

    https://www.midjourney.com/showcase
    https://www.instagram.com/midjourney.gallery/

    Mainly for pre-viz, moodboards and concepts rather than final output but a time-saver compared to doing web searches for matching image references.

    Software developers are using AI models to be more productive, they can write tedious code and help solve problems faster than digging through obscure, poorly written documentation:

    https://medium.com/plandek/how-to-measure-the-impact-of-github-copilot-on-engineering-productivity-70698b41e4c

    AI models won't be useful to everyone directly but they will be used in most industries eventually.
    gatorguyAlex1N
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