And if you think de-dollarisation isn't underway, that is fine.
".. owing to the increasing awareness of the economic and geopolitical rationales for de-dollarization and the fact that major developing countries have been at the forefront of the movement, the trend toward further de-dollarization seems unstoppable."
" As of March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in RMB while 42.8% were settled in USD. This is double the share from five years previous. According to Goldman Sachs, foreigners’ increased willingness to trade assets denominated in RMB significantly contributed to de-dollarization in favor of China’s currency. Also, early last year, Brazil and Argentina announced that they would begin allowing trade settlements in RMB."
You lost me at your rambling and massively long spaghetti post #31. Perhaps you should opt for some AI assistance?
You might want to actually attempt to understand the details a bit better before you post. Yeah, countries are attempting de-dollarization, but so far, with little success. Perhaps that reason is that the BRICS economies aren't doing so well; all of them collective are barely larger than the U.S. GDP. Meanwhile, the 2nd largest economy in the world, that would be China, is in economic trouble.
China's rise? I'm old enough to remember when you were certain that China was going to exceed the U.S. GDP.
That isn't going to happen, and that is plainly on Xi.
Your 'little success' is totally irrelevant. My quote on China's de-dollarisation paints a very clear picture.
Your post was in reply to me saying de-dollarisation is underway.
More to the point are the reasons why it is underway.
Please quote me on the China GDP claims. Why is it even so important when both countries take up a huge swathe of global GDP, leaving even the third place well behind?
As you well know, China overtook the US in PPP back in 2016 but I already know you won't accept that as a metric. However, that is irrelevant.
And what do BRICS economies have to do with anything? That is a ridiculous statement.
China is still building out massive critical infrastructure projects everywhere outside China on BRICS/BRI policy (ports, airports, ICT, health, rail... plus the technology tools for managing that infrastructure which is all digital) and staking an ever increasing claim to business in the Middle East.
As for China's rise, well yeah, that was my point, wasn't it? . They've 'risen' and that's why the US is acting like it is in the technology stakes.
Flailing wildly with no real coherent ideas. Just whack-a-mole reactions.
Compare the Obama era China to the Biden era China. See any difference?
So what have US 'counter' China efforts actually achieved?
Literally nothing because China rose just like everyone knew it would.
Yet the price paid in self harm for US semiconductor interests is painfully evident. And it's highly likely that business (billions upon billions) is never coming back.
When Obama was initially in office, Xi was not. Chairman/President/ General Secretary Xi didn't happen until Obama's second term.
What changed? Xi became more authoritarian, that's a fact, and later, due to China's COVID response, supply chains began shifting out of China.
What has the U.S. counter to China actually achieved? Well, it hard to state whether China's economy has slowed due to those supply chain shifts, or Xi's policies, but the fact that the U.S. has made re-shoring and friend-shoring the point of its economic policy, while China's growth has slowed seem to indicate a bit of both. China's economy is in very poor shape right now, and with the EU likely having to have tariffs on Chinese EV's, China is going to be very unhappy and retaliate, which is expected.
You still seem to be unaware that Xi's threats of invasion of Taiwan are threats against the global economy, and for a fact, if Xi invades Taiwan, the Global economy will be in shock. That won't be on the U.S. for that happening, it will be on Xi, who likely won't care at that point. How bloody that battle will be is unknown, but it will be the most intense in history, but for a very short time. China will likely not recover, even if it successfully invades Taiwan.
Meanwhile, all of the tech stocks are up, driven by AI, so I don't see that China is of much concern to ASML, et al, especially if the EU follows the U.S. to fund more fabs, which it seems to be inclined to do. What doesn't go to China will go elsewhere, and China will surely be able to build all of the power plants that it needs for all of the older tech that will drive its AI efforts.
There you go! Full on politics.
Try to keep things technology focused.
Xi is irrelevant to my point. The point was that US foreign policy saw China (not the leader!) as a rising power. Technology was one of pillars of that rise.
The Pacific Pivot was partly a move to suppress it. Followed up by US tariffs which are ongoing.
China has risen nevertheless.
Policy failed.
Saying 'well we don't know how effective the moves were' or blaming Xi are irrelevant to my point.
In technology (the industrial revolution of this century) sanctions are not working and are doomed to failure. They were from day one.
Just today (Reuters):
"During Nvidia's first quarter earnings on Wednesday, senior executives warned that the company's business in China is "substantially" lower than in the past due to the sanctions.
Nvidia's most advanced AI chip it developed for the China market has got off to a weak start, with abundant supply forcing it to be priced below a rival chip from Chinese tech giant Huawei. ...
Our data centre revenue in China is down significantly from the level prior to the imposition of the new export control restrictions in October ...
Analysts said while Nvidia was trying hard to capture share in a market it cannot afford to lose, the outlook is increasingly uncertain. ...
Nvidia is definitely preparing for the worst in the long term"
So US semiconductor interests get shot to pieces (by friendly fire) through them not being allowed to do business with their biggest customers. Revenues fall as a result and from those revenues R&D is supposed to lead to the technologies of tomorrow.
Less revenue. Less financing for R&D. Less technology for tomorrow.
Not only that. Your main commercial market (that you are now unable to cater to on competitive terms) begins creating solutions that will directly compete with you in the future!
That's Nvidia's reality and the reality of every single US technology company. They are all in the same leaky boat.
You can 'want to believe' Biden when he says the US can 'out-compete' anyone but deep down, you know its just an election year soundbyte that is going straight into the bin.
After all, this is the same person who so strongly criticised Trump's tariffs on China, saying they only cost American citizens more money. That was pre-election too.
The point, and you know that you have been avoiding it, is that Xi has threatened, over and over again, to invade Taiwan. More than that, China has been supporting Russia with dual use material. That doesn't endear China to the U.S. and the EU at all.
Good luck on China picking up the pace in technology without the West, and more so, without the revenues from the West to fund the Chinese economy. I'm sure that China will be able to compete using less efficient technology while plugged into an array of additional coal fired power plants, but otherwise, they aren't going to catch up a rate fast enough to make a difference in the semiconductor market.
Yes, there are sales that are not being made into China, but at the same time, AI investment is bringing new sales to Intel, Nvidia, AMD, and yes, even Apple.
Your support of authoritarianism is something I noted when I saw some of your first posts, wrt using facial recognition on Catalonian protestors. What you post today is yet more indication of your lack of moral framework, and I find your support of authoritarians loathsome..
How Xi Jinping’s authoritarianism is killing China’s economy | Business Beyond
You can't help yourself. Authoritarian or not is NOT the problem.
That is irrelevant. Forget that in this discussion.
The US does massive business with the country and is fine with that. As per Trump, the US actually wants more business with China!
The US has literally depended on Saudi Arabia for decades. Another authoritarian state (which it literally armed to the teeth!).
The US does NOT have an issue with authoritarian governments just because they are authoritarian.
No. What the real issue is, is if a state can challenge US hegemony. Then the US will use (is using!) any means it can to thwart it.
Authoritarian or not!
And ironically, that makes its actions, well, authoritarian! Breaking UN charter agreements, WTO agreements, not joining the ICC system (for fear of finding itself on the hook multiple times over), etc.
China has largely been non-interventionist. The US has invaded countries at will, effected regime change, caused untold civilian deaths (directly and indirectly), mismanaged both Iraq and Afghanistan...
China is a poodle in comparison.
That is irrelevant here, though.
Like I said earlier. Taiwan is an afterthought for the US. It doesn't give a damn about it. What it cares about is TSMC.
That means technology.
Set aside your political ideas and look at the technology side.
As China has upped it technological capabilities to the point of actively challenging US influence, the US decided that couldn't be allowed and it was clear about it (re-read Barr's speech).
How they are going about it, though, is doing more harm than good to its own interests. That is my point.
US semiconductor interests are literally getting pummeled in the process and all you relentlessly point to is Xi and authoritarianism. Let it go!
Nvidia (and by extension, the US semiconductor industry) is dependent on China for key revenues. Export restrictions are effectively tying its hands behind its back and accelerating China's (already advanced) progress.
Catalonian protestors? Facial recognition technology? I have no idea where you want to go with that but I can guarantee you, wherever it is, you are mistaken. As usual.
You definitely don't know what happened here on the night of September 7th 2017 and why it was called a blow to democracy. Do you know why those Catalan politicians ended up in prison?
Don't bother answering that.
Refocus your thoughts onto the technology side and its impact.
Gee, I just can't refocus my thoughts when I know that China is threatening Taiwan, but you, as usual seem fine with that. Naturally, I would like to see less Western technology sold into China that gives China better weapons systems.
Bending the conversation to the "losses" that Western companies will see, while at the same time, Nvidia has reached $2.6T in market value seems to be at odds. In fact, it is China that is seeing losses, for numerous reasons. I'm fine with letting China build its own semiconductors, but without Western technology. We'll see how that works for them in five years of throwing massive resources at that.
And if you think de-dollarisation isn't underway, that is fine.
".. owing to the increasing awareness of the economic and geopolitical rationales for de-dollarization and the fact that major developing countries have been at the forefront of the movement, the trend toward further de-dollarization seems unstoppable."
" As of March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in RMB while 42.8% were settled in USD. This is double the share from five years previous. According to Goldman Sachs, foreigners’ increased willingness to trade assets denominated in RMB significantly contributed to de-dollarization in favor of China’s currency. Also, early last year, Brazil and Argentina announced that they would begin allowing trade settlements in RMB."
You lost me at your rambling and massively long spaghetti post #31. Perhaps you should opt for some AI assistance?
You might want to actually attempt to understand the details a bit better before you post. Yeah, countries are attempting de-dollarization, but so far, with little success. Perhaps that reason is that the BRICS economies aren't doing so well; all of them collective are barely larger than the U.S. GDP. Meanwhile, the 2nd largest economy in the world, that would be China, is in economic trouble.
China's rise? I'm old enough to remember when you were certain that China was going to exceed the U.S. GDP.
That isn't going to happen, and that is plainly on Xi.
Your 'little success' is totally irrelevant. My quote on China's de-dollarisation paints a very clear picture.
Your post was in reply to me saying de-dollarisation is underway.
More to the point are the reasons why it is underway.
Please quote me on the China GDP claims. Why is it even so important when both countries take up a huge swathe of global GDP, leaving even the third place well behind?
As you well know, China overtook the US in PPP back in 2016 but I already know you won't accept that as a metric. However, that is irrelevant.
And what do BRICS economies have to do with anything? That is a ridiculous statement.
China is still building out massive critical infrastructure projects everywhere outside China on BRICS/BRI policy (ports, airports, ICT, health, rail... plus the technology tools for managing that infrastructure which is all digital) and staking an ever increasing claim to business in the Middle East.
As for China's rise, well yeah, that was my point, wasn't it? . They've 'risen' and that's why the US is acting like it is in the technology stakes.
Flailing wildly with no real coherent ideas. Just whack-a-mole reactions.
Compare the Obama era China to the Biden era China. See any difference?
So what have US 'counter' China efforts actually achieved?
Literally nothing because China rose just like everyone knew it would.
Yet the price paid in self harm for US semiconductor interests is painfully evident. And it's highly likely that business (billions upon billions) is never coming back.
When Obama was initially in office, Xi was not. Chairman/President/ General Secretary Xi didn't happen until Obama's second term.
What changed? Xi became more authoritarian, that's a fact, and later, due to China's COVID response, supply chains began shifting out of China.
What has the U.S. counter to China actually achieved? Well, it hard to state whether China's economy has slowed due to those supply chain shifts, or Xi's policies, but the fact that the U.S. has made re-shoring and friend-shoring the point of its economic policy, while China's growth has slowed seem to indicate a bit of both. China's economy is in very poor shape right now, and with the EU likely having to have tariffs on Chinese EV's, China is going to be very unhappy and retaliate, which is expected.
You still seem to be unaware that Xi's threats of invasion of Taiwan are threats against the global economy, and for a fact, if Xi invades Taiwan, the Global economy will be in shock. That won't be on the U.S. for that happening, it will be on Xi, who likely won't care at that point. How bloody that battle will be is unknown, but it will be the most intense in history, but for a very short time. China will likely not recover, even if it successfully invades Taiwan.
Meanwhile, all of the tech stocks are up, driven by AI, so I don't see that China is of much concern to ASML, et al, especially if the EU follows the U.S. to fund more fabs, which it seems to be inclined to do. What doesn't go to China will go elsewhere, and China will surely be able to build all of the power plants that it needs for all of the older tech that will drive its AI efforts.
There you go! Full on politics.
Try to keep things technology focused.
Xi is irrelevant to my point. The point was that US foreign policy saw China (not the leader!) as a rising power. Technology was one of pillars of that rise.
The Pacific Pivot was partly a move to suppress it. Followed up by US tariffs which are ongoing.
China has risen nevertheless.
Policy failed.
Saying 'well we don't know how effective the moves were' or blaming Xi are irrelevant to my point.
In technology (the industrial revolution of this century) sanctions are not working and are doomed to failure. They were from day one.
Just today (Reuters):
"During Nvidia's first quarter earnings on Wednesday, senior executives warned that the company's business in China is "substantially" lower than in the past due to the sanctions.
Nvidia's most advanced AI chip it developed for the China market has got off to a weak start, with abundant supply forcing it to be priced below a rival chip from Chinese tech giant Huawei. ...
Our data centre revenue in China is down significantly from the level prior to the imposition of the new export control restrictions in October ...
Analysts said while Nvidia was trying hard to capture share in a market it cannot afford to lose, the outlook is increasingly uncertain. ...
Nvidia is definitely preparing for the worst in the long term"
So US semiconductor interests get shot to pieces (by friendly fire) through them not being allowed to do business with their biggest customers. Revenues fall as a result and from those revenues R&D is supposed to lead to the technologies of tomorrow.
Less revenue. Less financing for R&D. Less technology for tomorrow.
Not only that. Your main commercial market (that you are now unable to cater to on competitive terms) begins creating solutions that will directly compete with you in the future!
That's Nvidia's reality and the reality of every single US technology company. They are all in the same leaky boat.
You can 'want to believe' Biden when he says the US can 'out-compete' anyone but deep down, you know its just an election year soundbyte that is going straight into the bin.
After all, this is the same person who so strongly criticised Trump's tariffs on China, saying they only cost American citizens more money. That was pre-election too.
The point, and you know that you have been avoiding it, is that Xi has threatened, over and over again, to invade Taiwan. More than that, China has been supporting Russia with dual use material. That doesn't endear China to the U.S. and the EU at all.
Good luck on China picking up the pace in technology without the West, and more so, without the revenues from the West to fund the Chinese economy. I'm sure that China will be able to compete using less efficient technology while plugged into an array of additional coal fired power plants, but otherwise, they aren't going to catch up a rate fast enough to make a difference in the semiconductor market.
Yes, there are sales that are not being made into China, but at the same time, AI investment is bringing new sales to Intel, Nvidia, AMD, and yes, even Apple.
Your support of authoritarianism is something I noted when I saw some of your first posts, wrt using facial recognition on Catalonian protestors. What you post today is yet more indication of your lack of moral framework, and I find your support of authoritarians loathsome..
How Xi Jinping’s authoritarianism is killing China’s economy | Business Beyond
You can't help yourself. Authoritarian or not is NOT the problem.
That is irrelevant. Forget that in this discussion.
The US does massive business with the country and is fine with that. As per Trump, the US actually wants more business with China!
The US has literally depended on Saudi Arabia for decades. Another authoritarian state (which it literally armed to the teeth!).
The US does NOT have an issue with authoritarian governments just because they are authoritarian.
No. What the real issue is, is if a state can challenge US hegemony. Then the US will use (is using!) any means it can to thwart it.
Authoritarian or not!
And ironically, that makes its actions, well, authoritarian! Breaking UN charter agreements, WTO agreements, not joining the ICC system (for fear of finding itself on the hook multiple times over), etc.
China has largely been non-interventionist. The US has invaded countries at will, effected regime change, caused untold civilian deaths (directly and indirectly), mismanaged both Iraq and Afghanistan...
China is a poodle in comparison.
That is irrelevant here, though.
Like I said earlier. Taiwan is an afterthought for the US. It doesn't give a damn about it. What it cares about is TSMC.
That means technology.
Set aside your political ideas and look at the technology side.
As China has upped it technological capabilities to the point of actively challenging US influence, the US decided that couldn't be allowed and it was clear about it (re-read Barr's speech).
How they are going about it, though, is doing more harm than good to its own interests. That is my point.
US semiconductor interests are literally getting pummeled in the process and all you relentlessly point to is Xi and authoritarianism. Let it go!
Nvidia (and by extension, the US semiconductor industry) is dependent on China for key revenues. Export restrictions are effectively tying its hands behind its back and accelerating China's (already advanced) progress.
Catalonian protestors? Facial recognition technology? I have no idea where you want to go with that but I can guarantee you, wherever it is, you are mistaken. As usual.
You definitely don't know what happened here on the night of September 7th 2017 and why it was called a blow to democracy. Do you know why those Catalan politicians ended up in prison?
Don't bother answering that.
Refocus your thoughts onto the technology side and its impact.
Gee, I just can't refocus my thoughts when I know that China is threatening Taiwan, but you, as usual seem fine with that. Naturally, I would like to see less Western technology sold into China that gives China better weapons systems.
Bending the conversation to the "losses" that Western companies will see, while at the same time, Nvidia has reached $2.6T in market value seems to be at odds. In fact, it is China that is seeing losses, for numerous reasons. I'm fine with letting China build its own semiconductors, but without Western technology. We'll see how that works for them in five years of throwing massive resources at that.
Not 'western' technology. US technology. Don't confuse things! Sanctions were imposed - unilaterally and extraterritorially - by the US, and it sent officials to the few states willing to listen to impose those sanctions.
The technology in question is technology that happens to include some degree of US origin. That now even includes US employees. It isn't 'western' technology by any stretch.
Hence the five hours of shouting that Johnson received.
Both the Dutch and the South Koreans have their reservations and have made them known.
"South Korean politician urges US to abandon China chip strategy"
"But the 2019 experience left a bitter hangover. At the time, a senior US official told Dutch diplomats that “good allies do not sell this type of equipment to China.” In a thinly disguised threat, the official warned that ASML depended on crucial US-made components and that Washington had “the authority to restrict exports of those parts to the Netherlands”.
Although Washington consulted with allies before imposing its latest semiconductor export controls, it has also threatened to retaliate against holdouts, so that equipment that contains “even the smallest amount of US technologies” couldn’t be sold to China. This “you’re with us or against us” approach angers Europeans. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo has compared US behavior to that of a bully. ...
Rutte reported only “gradual progress” on aligning Dutch and US chip export restrictions.
That’s diplomatic speak for disagreement. Though eager to please their American ally, the Dutch resent what they perceive as US bullying"
Not one single technology company sees sanctions as a solution and western technology stills flows into China in the billions - just not in some areas where US origin technology is involved. That is why de-Americanisation has begun. In a global supply chain the US has made its technology base go toxic. It is literally untrustworthy because it could be weaponised at any moment. Do you think any BRICS+ nation would sign onto US technology if they can avoid it?
Remember, the so called Global South represents 88% of the world's population.
Nvidia's market cap is just that, a market cap. A snapshot in time. It means nothing in the overall scheme of things. Things could change at any moment (see quotes above).
Nvidia might have enough business to keep shareholders happy. After all, it's a boom time for AI at the moment but let's not ignore the elephant in the room.
Its sales are already being significantly impacted and will be far less than they could be due to the export restrictions. Chinese competitors are filling the gaps and, as Wennink said, will grow (are growing) to challenge Nvidia both inside and out of China.
It wasn't long ago that the car industry was struggling to ship cars because fabrication capacity of some key chips couldn't be increased. Who remembers that now? Or that things quickly swung in the opposite direction. That's how fast things can change but there is no getting away from the facts.
Time for some 'humouristic' but nevertheless 'in your face' opinion?
In case you're wondering I did not write this piece...
"U.S. strategy currently amounts to throwing the pin away while hanging onto the hand grenade. If it really wants to combat Chinese tech, America needs to stop allowing politicians to make decisions that should be taken by grown-ups. A combination of enthusiastic cooperation and fierce competition is what is required. That level of nuance is clearly beyond the grasp of America’s legislators."
...
"Huawei’s licensing business has taken off like a rocket (a cool, steadfast Saturn V rocket, not one of the exploding SpaceX ones). The company generated $560 million in patent revenues in its first year monetizing its technology"
Time for some 'humouristic' but nevertheless 'in your face' opinion?
In case you're wondering I did not write this piece...
"U.S. strategy currently amounts to throwing the pin away while hanging onto the hand grenade. If it really wants to combat Chinese tech, America needs to stop allowing politicians to make decisions that should be taken by grown-ups. A combination of enthusiastic cooperation and fierce competition is what is required. That level of nuance is clearly beyond the grasp of America’s legislators."
...
"Huawei’s licensing business has taken off like a rocket (a cool, steadfast Saturn V rocket, not one of the exploding SpaceX ones). The company generated $560 million in patent revenues in its first year monetizing its technology"
Time for some 'humouristic' but nevertheless 'in your face' opinion?
In case you're wondering I did not write this piece...
"U.S. strategy currently amounts to throwing the pin away while hanging onto the hand grenade. If it really wants to combat Chinese tech, America needs to stop allowing politicians to make decisions that should be taken by grown-ups. A combination of enthusiastic cooperation and fierce competition is what is required. That level of nuance is clearly beyond the grasp of America’s legislators."
...
"Huawei’s licensing business has taken off like a rocket (a cool, steadfast Saturn V rocket, not one of the exploding SpaceX ones). The company generated $560 million in patent revenues in its first year monetizing its technology"
Again, why are you supporting China threatening Taiwan?
I don't support anyone threatening anyone. I have never supported anyone threatening anyone.
I did not support Biden when he threatened Nord Stream either. Weird that he somehow thought he had the right to jump in on something that had nothing to do with him or the US just because it was in his interest.
Now, China and Taiwan on the other hand are at least directly connected in that particular issue.
It's one prickly pear for sure but as I've said more than once, the US has zero interest in Taiwan. Everything hinges on the importance of TSMC which happens to be based there.
Time for some 'humouristic' but nevertheless 'in your face' opinion?
In case you're wondering I did not write this piece...
"U.S. strategy currently amounts to throwing the pin away while hanging onto the hand grenade. If it really wants to combat Chinese tech, America needs to stop allowing politicians to make decisions that should be taken by grown-ups. A combination of enthusiastic cooperation and fierce competition is what is required. That level of nuance is clearly beyond the grasp of America’s legislators."
...
"Huawei’s licensing business has taken off like a rocket (a cool, steadfast Saturn V rocket, not one of the exploding SpaceX ones). The company generated $560 million in patent revenues in its first year monetizing its technology"
Again, why are you supporting China threatening Taiwan?
I don't support anyone threatening anyone. I have never supported anyone threatening anyone.
I did not support Biden when he threatened Nord Stream either. Weird that he somehow thought he had the right to jump in on something that had nothing to do with him or the US just because it was in his interest.
Now, China and Taiwan on the other hand are at least directly connected in that particular issue.
It's one prickly pear for sure but as I've said more than once, the US has zero interest in Taiwan. Everything hinges on the importance of TSMC which happens to be based there.
Nordstream was fought by the Bush administration, Nordstream II by Obama, Trump, and Biden; all were correct in their assessment that Nordstream was an achilles heel for the EU. Given that he U.S. was the power behind NATO, which was created to protect Europe from the Soviet Union, that is as it should be. The same applies to U.S. demands about Huawei telecom; you don't build critical infrastructure from a hostile power, and China is in fact a hostile power.
The U.S. has supported the ROC since 1949 when the KMT fled to Formosa, nee Taiwan. Heck, the first Sidewinder missile to see combat was launched by a Taiwanese F-86 against a PRC Mig.
By this stage, the battle lines of the Taiwan confrontation had been established, with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) building up its forces on the mainland, while the Nationalists, forced out of the mainland, held out on Taiwan. At this time, the government in Taiwan was still widely recognized as the legitimate government of China, including within the United Nations, the country enjoying a status that has since notably diminished. Then as now, Taiwan was a recipient of U.S. military assistance, including the supply of combat aircraft, including F-86F Sabre jet fighters
...
Overall, the appearance of the Sidewinder had been a surprise for the PRC and for observers in general. There was a lucky windfall for the Communists, however, with at least one missile hitting a MiG-17, but not detonating. The jet returned to base where the missile wreckage was removed and later studied. That resulted in the reverse-engineered Vympel K-13 (AA-2 Atoll) in the Soviet Union and the license-built PL-2 equivalent in the PRC. Both these weapons had serious shortcomings in terms of capabilities, as did the early-generation Sidewinders, but they similarly provided a springboard toward much more practical designs.
The PRC has never had any control of Taiwan. Taiwan is a thriving democracy, beyond being home to TSMC. It deserves to remain a democracy.
Time for some 'humouristic' but nevertheless 'in your face' opinion?
In case you're wondering I did not write this piece...
"U.S. strategy currently amounts to throwing the pin away while hanging onto the hand grenade. If it really wants to combat Chinese tech, America needs to stop allowing politicians to make decisions that should be taken by grown-ups. A combination of enthusiastic cooperation and fierce competition is what is required. That level of nuance is clearly beyond the grasp of America’s legislators."
...
"Huawei’s licensing business has taken off like a rocket (a cool, steadfast Saturn V rocket, not one of the exploding SpaceX ones). The company generated $560 million in patent revenues in its first year monetizing its technology"
Again, why are you supporting China threatening Taiwan?
I don't support anyone threatening anyone. I have never supported anyone threatening anyone.
I did not support Biden when he threatened Nord Stream either. Weird that he somehow thought he had the right to jump in on something that had nothing to do with him or the US just because it was in his interest.
Now, China and Taiwan on the other hand are at least directly connected in that particular issue.
It's one prickly pear for sure but as I've said more than once, the US has zero interest in Taiwan. Everything hinges on the importance of TSMC which happens to be based there.
Nordstream was fought by the Bush administration, Nordstream II by Obama, Trump, and Biden; all were correct in their assessment that Nordstream was an achilles heel for the EU. Given that he U.S. was the power behind NATO, which was created to protect Europe from the Soviet Union, that is as it should be. The same applies to U.S. demands about Huawei telecom; you don't build critical infrastructure from a hostile power, and China is in fact a hostile power.
The U.S. has supported the ROC since 1949 when the KMT fled to Formosa, nee Taiwan. Heck, the first Sidewinder missile to see combat was launched by a Taiwanese F-86 against a PRC Mig.
By this stage, the battle lines of the Taiwan confrontation had been established, with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) building up its forces on the mainland, while the Nationalists, forced out of the mainland, held out on Taiwan. At this time, the government in Taiwan was still widely recognized as the legitimate government of China, including within the United Nations, the country enjoying a status that has since notably diminished. Then as now, Taiwan was a recipient of U.S. military assistance, including the supply of combat aircraft, including F-86F Sabre jet fighters
...
Overall, the appearance of the Sidewinder had been a surprise for the PRC and for observers in general. There was a lucky windfall for the Communists, however, with at least one missile hitting a MiG-17, but not detonating. The jet returned to base where the missile wreckage was removed and later studied. That resulted in the reverse-engineered Vympel K-13 (AA-2 Atoll) in the Soviet Union and the license-built PL-2 equivalent in the PRC. Both these weapons had serious shortcomings in terms of capabilities, as did the early-generation Sidewinders, but they similarly provided a springboard toward much more practical designs.
The PRC has never had any control of Taiwan. Taiwan is a thriving democracy, beyond being home to TSMC. It deserves to remain a democracy.
What absolute and utter nonsense. It is not for the US to decide anything for other people.
The Taiwan issue is complex and recognised as complex around the world with the exception of 13 states, but to justify the Biden Nord Stream threat like you just did is madness.
All I can say is wow!
So China is a hostile power? You mean more hostile than the US? LOL.
The absolute most horrifying thing about your 'justification' is that it is probably how Biden sees things too.
Anyway. I have no need to continue with this as there is nothing more I can say. So I will rest my case.
Time for some 'humouristic' but nevertheless 'in your face' opinion?
In case you're wondering I did not write this piece...
"U.S. strategy currently amounts to throwing the pin away while hanging onto the hand grenade. If it really wants to combat Chinese tech, America needs to stop allowing politicians to make decisions that should be taken by grown-ups. A combination of enthusiastic cooperation and fierce competition is what is required. That level of nuance is clearly beyond the grasp of America’s legislators."
...
"Huawei’s licensing business has taken off like a rocket (a cool, steadfast Saturn V rocket, not one of the exploding SpaceX ones). The company generated $560 million in patent revenues in its first year monetizing its technology"
Again, why are you supporting China threatening Taiwan?
I don't support anyone threatening anyone. I have never supported anyone threatening anyone.
I did not support Biden when he threatened Nord Stream either. Weird that he somehow thought he had the right to jump in on something that had nothing to do with him or the US just because it was in his interest.
Now, China and Taiwan on the other hand are at least directly connected in that particular issue.
It's one prickly pear for sure but as I've said more than once, the US has zero interest in Taiwan. Everything hinges on the importance of TSMC which happens to be based there.
Nordstream was fought by the Bush administration, Nordstream II by Obama, Trump, and Biden; all were correct in their assessment that Nordstream was an achilles heel for the EU. Given that he U.S. was the power behind NATO, which was created to protect Europe from the Soviet Union, that is as it should be. The same applies to U.S. demands about Huawei telecom; you don't build critical infrastructure from a hostile power, and China is in fact a hostile power.
The U.S. has supported the ROC since 1949 when the KMT fled to Formosa, nee Taiwan. Heck, the first Sidewinder missile to see combat was launched by a Taiwanese F-86 against a PRC Mig.
By this stage, the battle lines of the Taiwan confrontation had been established, with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) building up its forces on the mainland, while the Nationalists, forced out of the mainland, held out on Taiwan. At this time, the government in Taiwan was still widely recognized as the legitimate government of China, including within the United Nations, the country enjoying a status that has since notably diminished. Then as now, Taiwan was a recipient of U.S. military assistance, including the supply of combat aircraft, including F-86F Sabre jet fighters
...
Overall, the appearance of the Sidewinder had been a surprise for the PRC and for observers in general. There was a lucky windfall for the Communists, however, with at least one missile hitting a MiG-17, but not detonating. The jet returned to base where the missile wreckage was removed and later studied. That resulted in the reverse-engineered Vympel K-13 (AA-2 Atoll) in the Soviet Union and the license-built PL-2 equivalent in the PRC. Both these weapons had serious shortcomings in terms of capabilities, as did the early-generation Sidewinders, but they similarly provided a springboard toward much more practical designs.
The PRC has never had any control of Taiwan. Taiwan is a thriving democracy, beyond being home to TSMC. It deserves to remain a democracy.
What absolute and utter nonsense. It is not for the US to decide anything for other people.
The Taiwan issue is complex and recognised as complex around the world with the exception of 13 states, but to justify the Biden Nord Stream threat like you just did is madness.
All I can say is wow!
So China is a hostile power? You mean more hostile than the US? LOL.
The absolute most horrifying thing about your 'justification' is that it is probably how Biden sees things too.
Anyway. I have no need to continue with this as there is nothing more I can say. So I will rest my case.
The Philippines has accused China of “dangerous maneuvers and obstruction” and reinstalling a barrier at the disputed Scarborough Shoal, which Beijing blockaded and seized from Manila in 2012.
Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesman Jay Tarriela said two Philippine vessels on maritime patrol encountered four China Coast Guard (CCG) ships and six vessels from its maritime militia in the area on Monday morning.
That's before you add in China's own extremely expansive claim - the nine-dash line which claims nearly the whole sea as theirs. That was rejected by an international tribunal, a decision which China rejected.
Regional claimant states — fatigued by ASEAN’s inability to resolve the dispute and facing the brunt of Chinese aggression — may increasingly forge ties among themselves. But such efforts are unlikely to compel China to halt its aggressive campaign in the SCS.
The Philippines has accused China of “dangerous maneuvers and obstruction” and reinstalling a barrier at the disputed Scarborough Shoal, which Beijing blockaded and seized from Manila in 2012.
Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesman Jay Tarriela said two Philippine vessels on maritime patrol encountered four China Coast Guard (CCG) ships and six vessels from its maritime militia in the area on Monday morning.
That's before you add in China's own extremely expansive claim - the nine-dash line which claims nearly the whole sea as theirs. That was rejected by an international tribunal, a decision which China rejected.
Regional claimant states — fatigued by ASEAN’s inability to resolve the dispute and facing the brunt of Chinese aggression — may increasingly forge ties among themselves. But such efforts are unlikely to compel China to halt its aggressive campaign in the SCS.
Those are disputes, and historical disputes at that. They often involve neighboring parties. You left out China/India disputes and a host of other border related disputes.
There are dozens upon dozens of geographical disputes all over the world. The US has five maritime disputes with Canada. The US is involved in other disputes too. The UK, Spain, France...
Sometimes disputes (wherever they may be) degrade into conflict and war.
That has nothing to do with threatening stop a huge infrastructure project by sovereign nations on the other side of the world for which you have no connection at all just because you don't want it to happen.
The Philippines has accused China of “dangerous maneuvers and obstruction” and reinstalling a barrier at the disputed Scarborough Shoal, which Beijing blockaded and seized from Manila in 2012.
Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesman Jay Tarriela said two Philippine vessels on maritime patrol encountered four China Coast Guard (CCG) ships and six vessels from its maritime militia in the area on Monday morning.
That's before you add in China's own extremely expansive claim - the nine-dash line which claims nearly the whole sea as theirs. That was rejected by an international tribunal, a decision which China rejected.
Regional claimant states — fatigued by ASEAN’s inability to resolve the dispute and facing the brunt of Chinese aggression — may increasingly forge ties among themselves. But such efforts are unlikely to compel China to halt its aggressive campaign in the SCS.
Those are disputes, and historical disputes at that. They often involve neighboring parties. You left out China/India disputes and a host of other border related disputes.
There are dozens upon dozens of geographical disputes all over the world. The US has five maritime disputes with Canada. The US is involved in other disputes too. The UK, Spain, France...
Sometimes disputes (wherever they may be) degrade into conflict and war.
That has nothing to do with threatening stop a huge infrastructure project by sovereign nations on the other side of the world for which you have no connection at all just because you don't want it to happen.
Oh, you mean a huge, sovereign nation, which has expanded its military rapidly, including adding nuclear weapons, meddling in the South China Sea, which it believes it has exclusive ownership? Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy, and its allies, like Australia, who's mission includes freedom of navigation exercises, is harassed by that same country in International Waters.
That same country is meddling in areas that it doesn't have historical connections, ie, The Solomon Islands, because it has ambitions in interfering with trade routes between Australia and New Zealand, and the United States. That same country, that has no historic connections with the polar regions of the world, is expanding its naval power the Arctic and Antarctic.
This is starting to look like the 1930's when Japan's expansionism in Manchuria and China begat trade sanctions from the U.S., with Japan ultimately striking U.S., British, Dutch, and French, forces in the Pacific.
What a wonderful time that was!
Yet you persist in stating that the U.S. is "unfair" to China by restricting it access to dual use technology, and counters China's mercantilism. It's ironic how much China benefitted from those same rules of order, and the U.S. freedom of navigation mission, when it was on the way up.
Now that China is on the cusp of slow growth and is in population decline, never having got wealthy before it grows old, Xi finds it personally necessary to prepare and likely attempt to invade Taiwan, and you are okay with that.
The Philippines has accused China of “dangerous maneuvers and obstruction” and reinstalling a barrier at the disputed Scarborough Shoal, which Beijing blockaded and seized from Manila in 2012.
Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesman Jay Tarriela said two Philippine vessels on maritime patrol encountered four China Coast Guard (CCG) ships and six vessels from its maritime militia in the area on Monday morning.
That's before you add in China's own extremely expansive claim - the nine-dash line which claims nearly the whole sea as theirs. That was rejected by an international tribunal, a decision which China rejected.
Regional claimant states — fatigued by ASEAN’s inability to resolve the dispute and facing the brunt of Chinese aggression — may increasingly forge ties among themselves. But such efforts are unlikely to compel China to halt its aggressive campaign in the SCS.
Those are disputes, and historical disputes at that. They often involve neighboring parties. You left out China/India disputes and a host of other border related disputes.
There are dozens upon dozens of geographical disputes all over the world. The US has five maritime disputes with Canada. The US is involved in other disputes too. The UK, Spain, France...
Sometimes disputes (wherever they may be) degrade into conflict and war.
That has nothing to do with threatening stop a huge infrastructure project by sovereign nations on the other side of the world for which you have no connection at all just because you don't want it to happen.
The Philippines has accused China of “dangerous maneuvers and obstruction” and reinstalling a barrier at the disputed Scarborough Shoal, which Beijing blockaded and seized from Manila in 2012.
Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesman Jay Tarriela said two Philippine vessels on maritime patrol encountered four China Coast Guard (CCG) ships and six vessels from its maritime militia in the area on Monday morning.
That's before you add in China's own extremely expansive claim - the nine-dash line which claims nearly the whole sea as theirs. That was rejected by an international tribunal, a decision which China rejected.
Regional claimant states — fatigued by ASEAN’s inability to resolve the dispute and facing the brunt of Chinese aggression — may increasingly forge ties among themselves. But such efforts are unlikely to compel China to halt its aggressive campaign in the SCS.
Those are disputes, and historical disputes at that. They often involve neighboring parties. You left out China/India disputes and a host of other border related disputes.
There are dozens upon dozens of geographical disputes all over the world. The US has five maritime disputes with Canada. The US is involved in other disputes too. The UK, Spain, France...
Sometimes disputes (wherever they may be) degrade into conflict and war.
That has nothing to do with threatening stop a huge infrastructure project by sovereign nations on the other side of the world for which you have no connection at all just because you don't want it to happen.
I looked up those maritime disputes with Canada, and of course, they are administrative in nature, ie, there is no military involvement whatsoever.
Interestingly enough, those disputes run so deep that NORAD actually designates the 2nd in command to be Canadian, and of course, our border consists of a narrow clearing following the border, with, and get this, no physical barrier for most of the length.
That is as expected given that Canada is a longtime friend of the U.S., and a founding member of NATO and The Five Eyes.
Your "false equivalency" with what is happening with Taiwan is so obvious that even I am surprised that you attempted it, but you did.
The CCP would be foolish to invade a sovereign nation. Which means it's bound to happen sooner rather than later. I think Taiwan and it's partners have plans ready for launch once the CCP goes full-on crazy.
CCP does not consider Taiwan to be a sovereign nation. They consider it to be just another Chinese province. So I also expect them to "exercise their legitimate sovereignty over this rebellious province" sometime within the the next decade.
The CCP's consideration is bunk. Taiwan was never ruled over by the communists. Not one year, day nor second. Taiwan has its own legislature, military, monetary system and its citizens are responsible for electing its leadership.
Once the CCP attacks, they will overwhelm Taiwan; but it won't be a short and total "victory" in any sense. Indeed, the ramifications will be just as swift and long-lasting, to the CCP's detriment in the long run.
Well, maybe and maybe not. There are only 13 countries that recognize Taiwan as a country, a number that does NOT include the U.S., Russia, or any other permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, and in fact Taiwan was kicked from the U.N. in the 70s.
So "bunk" we may consider it, but that doesn't mean much to CCP.
Yep, totally overlooked reality. So I'll repeat: Taiwan was never ruled over by the communists. Not one year, day nor second. Taiwan has its own legislature, military, monetary system and its citizens are responsible for electing its leadership. Therefore, not "just another Chinese province" as you wrote.
You'll note that I said that CCP considers it just another Chinese province, not that anyone else does, or should.
Comments
Bending the conversation to the "losses" that Western companies will see, while at the same time, Nvidia has reached $2.6T in market value seems to be at odds. In fact, it is China that is seeing losses, for numerous reasons. I'm fine with letting China build its own semiconductors, but without Western technology. We'll see how that works for them in five years of throwing massive resources at that.
The technology in question is technology that happens to include some degree of US origin. That now even includes US employees. It isn't 'western' technology by any stretch.
Hence the five hours of shouting that Johnson received.
Both the Dutch and the South Koreans have their reservations and have made them known.
"South Korean politician urges US to abandon China chip strategy"
https://www.ft.com/content/26770ab3-f71c-4f39-8569-273a12ffb7b0
"But the 2019 experience left a bitter hangover. At the time, a senior US official told Dutch diplomats that “good allies do not sell this type of equipment to China.” In a thinly disguised threat, the official warned that ASML depended on crucial US-made components and that Washington had “the authority to restrict exports of those parts to the Netherlands”.
...
Rutte reported only “gradual progress” on aligning Dutch and US chip export restrictions.
That’s diplomatic speak for disagreement. Though eager to please their American ally, the Dutch resent what they perceive as US bullying"
https://www.euractiv.com/section/digital/opinion/dutch-dilemma-caught-in-the-middle-of-the-us-china-tech-cold-war/
Not one single technology company sees sanctions as a solution and western technology stills flows into China in the billions - just not in some areas where US origin technology is involved. That is why de-Americanisation has begun. In a global supply chain the US has made its technology base go toxic. It is literally untrustworthy because it could be weaponised at any moment. Do you think any BRICS+ nation would sign onto US technology if they can avoid it?Remember, the so called Global South represents 88% of the world's population.
Nvidia's market cap is just that, a market cap. A snapshot in time. It means nothing in the overall scheme of things. Things could change at any moment (see quotes above).
Nvidia might have enough business to keep shareholders happy. After all, it's a boom time for AI at the moment but let's not ignore the elephant in the room.
Its sales are already being significantly impacted and will be far less than they could be due to the export restrictions. Chinese competitors are filling the gaps and, as Wennink said, will grow (are growing) to challenge Nvidia both inside and out of China.
It wasn't long ago that the car industry was struggling to ship cars because fabrication capacity of some key chips couldn't be increased. Who remembers that now? Or that things quickly swung in the opposite direction. That's how fast things can change but there is no getting away from the facts.
In case you're wondering I did not write this piece...
"U.S. strategy currently amounts to throwing the pin away while hanging onto the hand grenade. If it really wants to combat Chinese tech, America needs to stop allowing politicians to make decisions that should be taken by grown-ups. A combination of enthusiastic cooperation and fierce competition is what is required. That level of nuance is clearly beyond the grasp of America’s legislators."
...
"Huawei’s licensing business has taken off like a rocket (a cool, steadfast Saturn V rocket, not one of the exploding SpaceX ones). The company generated $560 million in patent revenues in its first year monetizing its technology"
https://www.fierce-network.com/wireless/op-ed-us-sanctions-against-huawei-keep-backfiring-enough-already
I did not support Biden when he threatened Nord Stream either. Weird that he somehow thought he had the right to jump in on something that had nothing to do with him or the US just because it was in his interest.
Now, China and Taiwan on the other hand are at least directly connected in that particular issue.
It's one prickly pear for sure but as I've said more than once, the US has zero interest in Taiwan. Everything hinges on the importance of TSMC which happens to be based there.
The U.S. has supported the ROC since 1949 when the KMT fled to Formosa, nee Taiwan. Heck, the first Sidewinder missile to see combat was launched by a Taiwanese F-86 against a PRC Mig.
https://www.twz.com/42544/the-legendary-sidewinder-missile-made-its-first-kill-over-the-taiwan-strait
The PRC has never had any control of Taiwan. Taiwan is a thriving democracy, beyond being home to TSMC. It deserves to remain a democracy.
The Taiwan issue is complex and recognised as complex around the world with the exception of 13 states, but to justify the Biden Nord Stream threat like you just did is madness.
All I can say is wow!
So China is a hostile power? You mean more hostile than the US? LOL.
The absolute most horrifying thing about your 'justification' is that it is probably how Biden sees things too.
Anyway. I have no need to continue with this as there is nothing more I can say. So I will rest my case.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/china-stages-mock-strikes-on-taiwan-in-day-2-of-punishment-exercise
Yeah, that's really China being a "Poodle"....
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/30/philippines-and-china-in-new-confrontation-at-scarborough-shoal
https://news.sky.com/story/why-has-the-south-china-sea-become-so-contentious-13126474
https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/03/22/southeast-asia-stymied-in-south-china-sea-dispute/
Those are disputes, and historical disputes at that. They often involve neighboring parties. You left out China/India disputes and a host of other border related disputes.
There are dozens upon dozens of geographical disputes all over the world. The US has five maritime disputes with Canada. The US is involved in other disputes too. The UK, Spain, France...
Sometimes disputes (wherever they may be) degrade into conflict and war.
That has nothing to do with threatening stop a huge infrastructure project by sovereign nations on the other side of the world for which you have no connection at all just because you don't want it to happen.
That same country is meddling in areas that it doesn't have historical connections, ie, The Solomon Islands, because it has ambitions in interfering with trade routes between Australia and New Zealand, and the United States. That same country, that has no historic connections with the polar regions of the world, is expanding its naval power the Arctic and Antarctic.
This is starting to look like the 1930's when Japan's expansionism in Manchuria and China begat trade sanctions from the U.S., with Japan ultimately striking U.S., British, Dutch, and French, forces in the Pacific.
What a wonderful time that was!
Yet you persist in stating that the U.S. is "unfair" to China by restricting it access to dual use technology, and counters China's mercantilism. It's ironic how much China benefitted from those same rules of order, and the U.S. freedom of navigation mission, when it was on the way up.
Now that China is on the cusp of slow growth and is in population decline, never having got wealthy before it grows old, Xi finds it personally necessary to prepare and likely attempt to invade Taiwan, and you are okay with that.
Interestingly enough, those disputes run so deep that NORAD actually designates the 2nd in command to be Canadian, and of course, our border consists of a narrow clearing following the border, with, and get this, no physical barrier for most of the length.
That is as expected given that Canada is a longtime friend of the U.S., and a founding member of NATO and The Five Eyes.
Your "false equivalency" with what is happening with Taiwan is so obvious that even I am surprised that you attempted it, but you did.
You'll note that I said that CCP considers it just another Chinese province, not that anyone else does, or should.