iPhone Fold is on the way, but you're still going to have to wait a while
Apple's long-rumored foldable iPhone is still a hot topic, but analysts believe Apple won't be bringing out its own foldable smartphone until 2027 at the earliest.
A render of a possible iPhone Fold
While rivals such as Samsung have entered the market with foldable devices, Apple has held back from doing so. The rumor mill still believes something is on the way, with analysts offering similar opinions.
In a Monday report from TrendForce discussing the foldable smartphone market, analysts believe that foldable devices could control 5% of the market by 2028. However, while most of the discussion is about Samsung, Huawei, and other vendors, the report does offer a bit about Apple.
"Rumors about Apple entering the foldable phone market continue to circulate," writes TrendForce, stating the obvious. Just like the rumors, the analysts believe Apple is still working on the concept of the so-called iPhone Fold.
Apple is "still evaluating component specification and performance, with strict requirements for crease and reliability," the note reads.
It adds that Apple is "unlikely to release a foldable phone before 2027," a comment that goes along with some of the rumors. One sketchy March report cited an unnamed senior official in claiming that a fourth-quarter 2026 release was pushed back to the first quarter of 2027.
Meanwhile, the same month, a market researcher told a conference that foldables will be "later than expected," with a launch in 2026. Another report from February offered that a foldable iPad could replace the iPad mini, arriving in 2026 or 2027.
There's even been a claim Apple has given up on the concept.
However, it is hard to truly trust any rumors about a folding iPhone, since many have been proven wrong in the past. For example, in 2022, there were forecasts of a foldable iPhone in 2024, but the rumor mill no longer believes it to be the case -- and hasn't for some time.
TrendForce's note further makes the astute comment that Apple's entry "could significantly shift market dynamics" for foldable devices. Given Apple's size and popularity in the smartphone market, this is probably accurate once Apple actually releases foldable hardware.
It is still widely believed that Apple is working on the concept, with at least two folding prototypes under its belt. Numerous patents also detail its work on protecting the iPhone Fold and evolving the hinge, among other areas.
Rumor Score: Possible
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Comments
And THIS is why Apple doesn't have and will not have a folding screen phone. There's no market. Samsung debuted its folding screen phone five years ago. Google and others have since followed. And now, if you choose to believe the rosiest, most baseless predictions of what could happen, foldables--all of them!--might have nearly 5% of the market in four more years--the bolded emphasis is what TrendForce actually says in the report. Of course, this doesn't speak to the profit margins on these phones or whether they will even be profitable at all.
But the report is even far flimsier if you know how to dismantle this kind of bullshite. "Analysts believe..." is nonsense. The idea is that you assume "analysts" means "experts" with insider knowledge. But which analysts? How many? What's their track record on prior predictions? Oooops! Sorry! Can't reveal all our secrets! Just trust us!
If you follow any investor sites that actually track the success rates of analysts by name, what you quickly learn is that most of them do worse--far worse--in the accuracy of their predictions vs a simple coin flip. In a famous 1999 experiment, a chimp "picked" a portfolio of ten stocks by throwing ten darts at a board with the names of over 100 internet companies. The chimp's portfolio outperformed those of more than 6000 "pro" money managers.
"Analysts believe..." is meanlingless bullshite mostly used to feign non-existent knowledge and expertise unless you know who the analysts are and what their success rate is with predictions and recommendations in a particular sector and with specific companies.
I am really hoping this will have Apple Pencil support and be a complete iPad replacement for a person like me that mostly uses iPhone and MBP, but still has some desire for an iPad but not a full blown iPad Pro illustrator type user.
We shall see.
give it a rest already
Most folding phones sales are in China which could also explain why we don't see so many. Many models never get marketed outside China. Prices are also far more competitive there.
The two most important takeaways are that folding phones (book folding) remain largely premium devices even if prices are coming down. They have been on the up since they were introduced in 2019 and showing no signs of being a fad.
So there is an ever increasing market for premium folding phones and it's very likely Apple is losing sales as a result.
I'm sure Apple will bring one to market at some point.
https://www.patentlyapple.com/2024/03/with-huaweis-foldable-smartphone-sales-having-exploded-in-china-in-q1-24-will-it-be-enough-to-push-apple-into-this-segment.html
Just ignore the last paragraph. LOL.
Consider how people carry their phones: lots in trouser back pockets or jacket pockets (thicker isn't good there); lots in bags, be it ladies' handbags, rucksacks or whatever (folding is irrelevant there). In most (all?) cases, it will be slower to use 'cos you have to unfold it.
It will be more expensive because of the folding mechanism, hinges and 'special' display even before you consider the extra display(s) on the outside intended to address the slowness problem. The performance (battery life, thermals etc) will likely be inferior because of the complications of packaging battery, electronics etc into 2 smaller enclosures rather than 1 bigger one.
So for a phone, I just don't get it. Maybe in pursuit of an ultra-portable iPad but, apart from being a small part of a much smaller market, still suffers from some of the same problems.