Many of us expected the AVP or AV to be tethered to an iPhone, iPad or Mac.
It makes sense to use the computer we already have for most procesing, remove the Mx chip from the headset and put the rechargeable battery in the headset - cable needed for data connection / video bandwidth (think how SideCar with Mac/iPad works far better with a USB-C cable).
I guess Apple wanted to get something out there earlier than the end of 2025 to show what they can do.
While all of this is speculation on my part, I could see the following:
I see Apple keeping the Apple Vision Pro as a premium device without removing any current features, and continue to add features, while maintaining the existing pricing.
I see the addition of a lower end Apple Vision with certain features removed (such as eyesight) to trim costs.
Hardware and associated changes that I see coming include:
Size and Weight: Vision Pro size and weight will be reduced due to ongoing miniaturization of components, continued redesign and improved efficiency of hardware, and ongoing innovation allowing overall reduction of components. This will be for both units (Vision and. Vision Pro).
Processing Power: Overall, this will continue significantly with every iteration. Apple Vision will trail behind Vision Pro in terms of on-device processing capabilities. Vision Pro will start to keep parity with current M-series processors. I believe gaining support for full Apple Intelligence will play an initial role in this move, but improved efficiency and the overall potential utilization of this processing power will keep this parity ongoing. The Apple Vision will trail behind the AVP, staying in parity overall with A-chips or less current M-chips. Both units have some chance of obtaining shared wireless processing with an iPhone or iPad, and potentially MacOS devices. The Apple Vision Pro may get the ability to have a Thunderbolt connection to MacOS which would add significant shared processing, very fast data transfer, and would allow much more virtual screen real-estate to be shared from a Mac or MacBook than a single UW monitor. Some of these features will be limited to the Pro version, and will be geared more for developers or high-end business use. Wireless shared processing would benefit both.
Cameras: These player a critical role in the Vision Pro and will continue to do so. Low-light sensitivity will dramatically improve, as will overall quality. Spatial photo and video capture will be improved with every iteration. Incidentally, Spacial capture will be improved in iPhones as well with each iteration; this will be a strong focus.
Battery: Both devices will gain on-device battery although this may initially have a small capacity and be designed as a buffer to allow battery packs to be switched out without the device powering down. They may move more battery capacity than expected to the headset with the tether becoming optional, maintaining 2 hours of expected battery life with wireless shared processing or 5 hours with the tethered battery attached with shared wireless processing. The goal will be to eventually eliminate the tethered battery completely (possibly in around 3 iterations).
Storage capacity: Will increased with more tired storage options on both devices.
Find My: This feature will function on both devices. NFC will be employed so the key info can be read even if the devices have no power.
Health tacking features will be added to both devices. Pulse, respiratory rate, posture, measures of stress, and more.
Emotion tracking will start to emerge with both these devices. Apple Intelligence will have the capability to interpret emotional nuance gleaned by the headset that is not apparent when limited to vocal analysis. This will lend to far more accurate understanding and responses by Apple Intelligent services. Completely optional anonymized information will help train these services to continue improving on a breathtaking pace.
This has already gotten too long. I’m primarily commenting about hardware changes. I’m interested to hear other people’s ideas where these devices will go
Considering that you need to have this attached to the wall or that battery pack in your pocket anyhow, why not just make it require tethering to a MacBook, iPhone or iPad. You could daisy chain the power through the host device and also build it somewhat cheaper not needing a wholly separate M-Series chip. I mean, the iPad Pro has an M4 chip in so we can stream YouTube videos and solve algebra problems now, surely there's enough horsepower left in that thing to run what an M2 is currently doing strapped to these user's faces lol.
As with .mp3 players before the iPod, there is already a field of such devices from Rokid, XReal, and others, that each require a separate device for both power and content. I'm currently considering one of these two options for portable entertainment and productivity where it's not convenient or possible to bring multiple or larger screens. And, like iPod, I hope Apple can do this better, with tighter integration to other devices and services. It's exciting. It's not spatial computing (the Rokid and XReal things) but they're slooooowly spanning the gap between consumption devices (glasses-as-multiple-or-larger-screens) and AR.
But $1500 definitely won't cut it. For a toy like this, they're going to have to hit $500 or less.
Would you have called the Laptop a toy (people certainly did at the time)?
This to me seems to be the same rollout path. If it tracks the next device, it isn't a general consumer device, that is probably 5 years away. The next device would be the $2,500 Powerbook150 launched into a position companies feel comfortable buying as part of some specialist employee kit, not just those employees who can demand what they use.
Has Apple ever released a “Pro” version of a new product prior to having the base version available?
Are the features being queued up as candidates for downgrading based on Apple’s product vision or based on an assumed bill of materials cost for the current model? The reason I ask is because Apple may take a different approach with the AV Basic in addition to tethering. Rather than trying to cost reduce the current AVP Apple could significantly alter the base model’s design more significantly, for example going with hand controllers or other control mechanisms like an Apple Watch and/or a smart wrist band that are not as processing intensive. Or they could bake Apple Intelligence deeply into the design. From a Pro standpoint the AVP could also move up to M4/M5 with more focus on business apps, business buyers, graphic designers with the need for speed, etc., while holding its price close to where it is.
If they get a good enough design for a cheaper model, they may just make that new design the Apple Vision Pro rather than have a split. There have been a couple of BOM estimates that put the parts for AVP above $1500:
Some estimates had the display cost higher at $700, which would put the build cost over $1700. This seems more likely as 4K Micro-OLED panels are expensive.
Apple usually has around 40% gross margin but this wouldn't get to $3500. 50% gross margin on $1700 build cost would be closer.
If they get a better deal on OLED displays for the 2nd revision and cut the compute parts out, they could hit $1000 build cost. 40% gross margin on that is $1699. If they require an iPhone 15 Pro or higher, the total would be $2699+ but tens of millions of people already have iPhones/iPads/Macs with the compute power needed.
Meta Quest 3 is sold at break-even or a small loss with cheap parts at $500. If Apple sold that exact same hardware, it would retail at $800-900 so that's essentially the lowest possible price Apple could hit with a viewer device for now but Apple wouldn't ship something with that build quality.
I think a visor design would help adoption too. It would be more comfortable than goggles and allow people to wear glasses. Less heat, less pressure and weight on the face, easier to lift up to talk to people and Apple can make it less bulky than other visor designs:
That would be reasonable to tether it to Mac or an I device.
However, the quest 2 doesn’t do that. Can’t see apple conceding.
A more plausible option would be spec and materials downgrading after reviewing usage data on v1 customers to see where they can cut corners.
A pair of sunglasses tethered to the iPhone would work really well.
A visor/headset needs to be its own thing if it keeps that form factor.
Apple could price the whole thing around Air / pro territory and it would fair better.
Another article today talks about apple looking to leverage the processing of all your apple devices to work together for big jobs. I can see that for this. Imagine wanting to do something truly demanding on a headset/glasses, but you can’t because the specs can’t handle it. But your max pro/ultra with ultra/extreme/atmageddon/whatever is sitting. RIGHT THERE chomping at the but - only you can’t leverage it that’s where a tether situation looks helpful. Or better yet - a way to instantly send camera data to the max and simultaneously receive the Mac’s output in your glasses/headset/etc.
id think apple would need to have special silicon for that in both the Mac’s and the glasses.
So maybe not going to work until we have all-m5 or whatever generation products in our stable.
Apple did what could be done with today’s tech. And it wasn’t the next big thing. But now they’ve got some dirt trail info to convert to asphalt roads and eventually concrete highways.
“And the sort of people who tend to buy the Vision Pro are, at the very least, people who spend a fair amount of time alone (since the whole idea of a headset is to be immersed). They might have more "disposable income" than a family of six, on average.*
No. I don’t spend a fair amount of time alone and the idea behind the headset is NOT to be immersed. It is an option. In fact, I rarely, if ever, use immersion or environments.
The whole idea behind this article/thread is preposterous to me. Which, was somewhat my initial take on the VP when it came out and I did my first demo. But it’s become a daily tool. I use it for work. Can take it anywhere and that’s my office or entertainment venue. When the weather is nice, I can go outside and work. Without any screen limitations. The world is my monitor. Or - if I feel like standing, I can just set up the apps around me and move around. I do use a physical keyboard, so need to make allowances for that, but it’s nice.
Family of six - not the average in my area. Think it’s what, 1.5 kids per family? Six is just too many and I personally think you are crazy if you do that. More disposable income than most, maybe. Though I see others spending more than I do on things.
Comments
It makes sense to use the computer we already have for most procesing, remove the Mx chip from the headset and put the rechargeable battery in the headset - cable needed for data connection / video bandwidth (think how SideCar with Mac/iPad works far better with a USB-C cable).
I guess Apple wanted to get something out there earlier than the end of 2025 to show what they can do.
I see Apple keeping the Apple Vision Pro as a premium device without removing any current features, and continue to add features, while maintaining the existing pricing.
I see the addition of a lower end Apple Vision with certain features removed (such as eyesight) to trim costs.
Hardware and associated changes that I see coming include:
Size and Weight: Vision Pro size and weight will be reduced due to ongoing miniaturization of components, continued redesign and improved efficiency of hardware, and ongoing innovation allowing overall reduction of components. This will be for both units (Vision and. Vision Pro).
Processing Power: Overall, this will continue significantly with every iteration. Apple Vision will trail behind Vision Pro in terms of on-device processing capabilities. Vision Pro will start to keep parity with current M-series processors. I believe gaining support for full Apple Intelligence will play an initial role in this move, but improved efficiency and the overall potential utilization of this processing power will keep this parity ongoing. The Apple Vision will trail behind the AVP, staying in parity overall with A-chips or less current M-chips. Both units have some chance of obtaining shared wireless processing with an iPhone or iPad, and potentially MacOS devices. The Apple Vision Pro may get the ability to have a Thunderbolt connection to MacOS which would add significant shared processing, very fast data transfer, and would allow much more virtual screen real-estate to be shared from a Mac or MacBook than a single UW monitor. Some of these features will be limited to the Pro version, and will be geared more for developers or high-end business use. Wireless shared processing would benefit both.
Cameras: These player a critical role in the Vision Pro and will continue to do so. Low-light sensitivity will dramatically improve, as will overall quality. Spatial photo and video capture will be improved with every iteration. Incidentally, Spacial capture will be improved in iPhones as well with each iteration; this will be a strong focus.
Battery: Both devices will gain on-device battery although this may initially have a small capacity and be designed as a buffer to allow battery packs to be switched out without the device powering down. They may move more battery capacity than expected to the headset with the tether becoming optional, maintaining 2 hours of expected battery life with wireless shared processing or 5 hours with the tethered battery attached with shared wireless processing. The goal will be to eventually eliminate the tethered battery completely (possibly in around 3 iterations).
Find My: This feature will function on both devices. NFC will be employed so the key info can be read even if the devices have no power.
Health tacking features will be added to both devices. Pulse, respiratory rate, posture, measures of stress, and more.
This has already gotten too long. I’m primarily commenting about hardware changes. I’m interested to hear other people’s ideas where these devices will go
This to me seems to be the same rollout path. If it tracks the next device, it isn't a general consumer device, that is probably 5 years away. The next device would be the $2,500 Powerbook150 launched into a position companies feel comfortable buying as part of some specialist employee kit, not just those employees who can demand what they use.
https://omdia.tech.informa.com/blogs/2023/jul/oledos-and-oled-displays-will-account-for-35-of-apples-vision-pro-vr-device-component-costs
Some estimates had the display cost higher at $700, which would put the build cost over $1700. This seems more likely as 4K Micro-OLED panels are expensive.
Apple usually has around 40% gross margin but this wouldn't get to $3500. 50% gross margin on $1700 build cost would be closer.
If they get a better deal on OLED displays for the 2nd revision and cut the compute parts out, they could hit $1000 build cost. 40% gross margin on that is $1699. If they require an iPhone 15 Pro or higher, the total would be $2699+ but tens of millions of people already have iPhones/iPads/Macs with the compute power needed.
Meta Quest 3 is sold at break-even or a small loss with cheap parts at $500. If Apple sold that exact same hardware, it would retail at $800-900 so that's essentially the lowest possible price Apple could hit with a viewer device for now but Apple wouldn't ship something with that build quality.
https://xrdailynews.com/quest-3-bom-production-costs-revealed/
Meta's higher-end headset Meta Quest Pro uses higher quality parts and costs $1000, which Apple would retail around $1600-1700:
https://www.uploadvr.com/quest-pro-2-work-reportedly-began-in-november/
https://www.meta.com/quest/quest-pro/
I think a visor design would help adoption too. It would be more comfortable than goggles and allow people to wear glasses. Less heat, less pressure and weight on the face, easier to lift up to talk to people and Apple can make it less bulky than other visor designs:
RIGHT THERE chomping at the but - only you can’t leverage it that’s where a tether situation looks helpful. Or better yet - a way to instantly send camera data to the max and simultaneously receive the Mac’s output in your glasses/headset/etc.
id think apple would need to have special silicon for that in both the Mac’s and the glasses.
The whole idea behind this article/thread is preposterous to me. Which, was somewhat my initial take on the VP when it came out and I did my first demo. But it’s become a daily tool. I use it for work. Can take it anywhere and that’s my office or entertainment venue. When the weather is nice, I can go outside and work. Without any screen limitations. The world is my monitor. Or - if I feel like standing, I can just set up the apps around me and move around. I do use a physical keyboard, so need to make allowances for that, but it’s nice.
Family of six - not the average in my area. Think it’s what, 1.5 kids per family? Six is just too many and I personally think you are crazy if you do that. More disposable income than most, maybe. Though I see others spending more than I do on things.