iPhone 16 may not see super cycle after all, according to analyst report

AppleInsider

Earnings calls from key iPhone suppliers suggest iPhone 16 isn't being ordered in any greater quantity than iPhone 15, bringing the rumored Apple Intelligence spurred super cycle into question.

iPhone 16

Analysts have been connecting the dots since WWDC to suggest iPhone 16 could drive significant sales due to Apple Intelligence demand. However, the speculation isn't allegedly being reflected in parts orders from key suppliers.

A new post from long-time supply chain analyst and Apple leaker Ming-Chi Kuo says Largan and TSMC commented on part demand during their earnings calls. Both said they hadn't seen a demand spike that would indicate an upcoming iPhone super cycle.

In fact, Kuo says orders for iPhone 16 units at 87 million units for the second half of 2024 haven't surpassed iPhone 15 orders at 91 million units for the same time period in 2023. Parts manufacturers have seen consistent orders.

A previous industry report suggested that Apple wouldn't release many Apple Intelligence features until early 2025. So, it seems unlikely that demand would spike in the fall thanks to an iPhone feature that isn't widely available outside of betas.

The iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max are the only existing iPhones that can run Apple Intelligence. It is believed that the entire iPhone 16 lineup will be able to run Apple's AI, driving sales.

However, without an Apple Intelligence launch in the fall, demand isn't expected to change. Given supply chain orders, at least according to Kuo, it seems Apple isn't planning for a super cycle either.



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charlesn

Also according to prior Kuo predictions: last year's iPhone 15 lineup would debut wtth an 8-inch foldable screen model (NOPE!); Pro models would have notchless, under Display Touch ID (NOPE! ) and a periscope camera (NOPE!). Once you start keeping track of what Kuo "predicts," the total BS of it all piles up pretty quickly. Flip a coin or throw darts at a board of predictions and you'll likely be at least as accurate as Kuo. 

edited July 2024

shrave10

Beware of those who have had there AAPL shares called away and need to talk the stock down for re-entry into long position 

mike1

Anticipated consumer demand, Apple's internal forecasts and POs to vendors are very different things.

Component orders for launch may be adjusted later once consumer demand and timing is more clearly visible.

Upgrades don't all happen on day one for a variety of reasons.

jfc_pa

Or not. lol 

geekmee

Apple will roll out Apple Intelligence as it deems necessary now that they have a beachhead.

I don’t believe that Apple Intelligence will 
become a salient part of the phone until around iPhone 17 or 18. 

But we shall see.

edited July 2024

geekmee

…unless there are AI lawsuits that could slow the process down or speed it up.

all in all, AI lawsuits will determine how soon we see Apple Intelligence.

edited July 2024

lewval

Why would you update to iPhone 16 when according to Apple, AI won't be available until the middle of 2025? I'd wait and buy the iPhone 17 at the earliest.. Silly, otherwise.

m68000

lewval said:

Why would you update to iPhone 16 when according to Apple, AI won't be available until the middle of 2025? I'd wait and buy the iPhone 17 at the earliest.. Silly, otherwise.

I bought a regular 15 model with 512gb and don’t feel silly at all.  Bottom line,  people should update when they need or want to.  Not based on a single feature.

by the way,  I’ve heard the hype about artificial intelligence over 30 years ago.   I don’t have real interest in some “bot” taking over what I want to do on my phone and interrupting me.   Hopefully there is an off switch in future iOS versions.

edited July 2024

m68000

It’s a mature product.  It’s not year 2010,  so called super cycles are history.  Why does this talk of super cycles keep coming up?

That said,  in a few years the iPhone will turn twenty.  Perhaps a collector item.  Even if it’s not,  I think there will be high sales and the somewhat obvious name would be iPhone XX

edited July 2024

cheesefreeze

Not only most of Apple Intelligence releases in 2025, it is very US centric. 

It even ‘skips’ the EU out of spite.

So essentially what’s left are mostly cosmetic changes and iterative improvements to existing apps and systems that look more like a point release update. Which is still very welcome, but not the major change that the Apple marketing machine has promised.

nubus

lewval said:

Why would you update to iPhone 16 when according to Apple, AI won't be available until the middle of 2025? I'd wait and buy the iPhone 17 at the earliest.. Silly, otherwise.

Or just stick to iPhone 15 Pro if you have it. AI does hold a huge potential for increased sales. It just has to ship and show a bit of value before we hit a super cycle. Unless Apple decides to brand iPhone 16 as "AI-enabled" or "AI-ready" and customers go crazy.

eriamjh

I stick to a. 3-4 year iPhone upgrade cycle no matter what.  It just costs too much to upgrade more often.    

dewme

M68000 said:

» show previous quotes

lewval said:

Why would you update to iPhone 16 when according to Apple, AI won't be available until the middle of 2025? I'd wait and buy the iPhone 17 at the earliest.. Silly, otherwise.

I bought a regular 15 model with 512gb and don’t feel silly at all.  Bottom line,  people should update when they need or want to.  Not based on a single feature.

by the way,  I’ve heard the hype about artificial intelligence over 30 years ago.   I don’t have real interest in some “bot” taking over what I want to do on my phone and interrupting me.   Hopefully there is an off switch in future iOS versions.

Same here with my iPhone 14 Pro Max. I bought it when my iPhone 10 was struggling. With every iPhone, no matter when you purchase it one year later, at best, you’re no longer the cool kid on the block with the latest and greatest shiny new iPhone. 

Apple is always going to come up with snazzy new features to entice you to buy their latest new products, whether or not you need them. That’s their job. Your job is to control what you buy, and when, based on your personal or professional needs, no matter what Apple is waving in front of your face. 

I remember when neural networks were all the rage. After decades that model evolved to usefulness via machine learning. I think AI is evolving fairly quickly but we don’t know its true potential. The way it’s being sold by many companies seems to me like a solution in search of a problem. To Apple’s credit they’ve been pacing their application of AI to help solve very specific problems and doing so behind the scenes. Now that Apple is being forced to put AI itself on public display, I’m not so sure they’ll stick to using AI as a tool instead of using AI as an advertising buzzword. 

edited July 2024

blastdoor

From my perspective the most important news from WWDC was PCC and that ACDC is real. That’s what makes me more positive about AAPL than I was before, in part because it has the potential to make AAPL less dependent on the ups and downs of annual iPhone sales. Lowering that dependence is essential, given the massive geopolitical risks. A world in which iPhones last longer and rely more on PCC for new functionality is a world in which Apple can better survive the massive disruption to iPhone production that would result if Xi invades, blockades, or quarantines Taiwan.

libertyandfree

 This makes no sense since an iPhone super cycle is defined by the customers not Apple or the supply chain. 

edited July 2024

victormortimer

It's going to be boring.

ALL new iPhones have been boring for a while now.  The 15 doesn't add anything interesting over my XS Max, the 16 won't either.  LTE is plenty fast enough for a phone, I don't care about AI at all, the camera on the 5 was good enough for me, I'd rather lose the stupid bulge.

I'd love to see a SE+ with a home button and no idiotic notch/pill, and I'd love for Apple to have the courage to put the headphone jack back in.

m68000

VictorMortimer said:

It's going to be boring.

ALL new iPhones have been boring for a while now.  The 15 doesn't add anything interesting over my XS Max, the 16 won't either.  LTE is plenty fast enough for a phone, I don't care about AI at all, the camera on the 5 was good enough for me, I'd rather lose the stupid bulge.

I'd love to see a SE+ with a home button and no idiotic notch/pill, and I'd love for Apple to have the courage to put the headphone jack back in.

As handy as the headphone jack would be.  I really think it will never come back.  They would rather have you buy airpods.  I’m not sure I agree that the new phones are boring.

anilu_777

geekmee said:

Apple will roll out Apple Intelligence as it deems necessary now that they have a beachhead.

I don’t believe that Apple Intelligence will 
become a salient part of the phone until around iPhone 17 or 18. 

But we shall see.

That’s why I’m holding off for the 17 Pro. My 14 Pro Max is fine