Apple could completely ditch Qualcomm's 5G modems by 2027
Qualcomm's 5G iPhone modem is on the way out much faster than expected, as Apple is now projected to rapidly move to using its own version, despite previous reports of delays.
A Qualcomm 5G modem
Apple bought Intel's 5G modem division for $1 billion in 2019, and at times has been said to be having difficulty, even to the extent that it was said to have abandoned its plans. More recently, however, it has been said that there will be two iPhones in 2025 which contain Apple's modem instead of Qualcomm's.
It was Kuo who reported that in July 2024. His latest report, though, projects how quickly he sees Apple replacing the Qualcomm modem.
My latest supply chain survey indicates that Apple's in-house 5G chip shipments will grow rapidly and replace Qualcomm's 5G chips. It's estimated that Apple's in-house 5G chip shipments will reach 35-40 million units in 2025, 90-110 million in 2026, and 160-180 million in 2027. https://t.co/miNhd324S9
-- (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo)
Kuo says this information comes from his supply chain sources, and he has a good track record for supply details.
In July, he said that the two models getting Apple's modem would be the entry-level iPhone SE 4, and the potentially high-end iPhone 17 Slim. The next iPhone SE is predicted to come in the first quarter of 2025, while the slim iPhone 17 will be announced in Apple's launch in September of the same year.
Apple's aim long been for its own technology to replace Qualcomm's, so that it has greater and exclusive control over yet more of the hardware it sells. Until Apple's model is ready, the company has been buying existing 5G modems from Qualcomm.
Most recently, it was said that Apple had bought a licence to use Qualcomm modems until at least March 2027. If Kuo is correct, though, Qualcomm will see a steep fall in its sales to Apple, as the iPhone maker is able to step up production.
The expected iPhone 17 Slim will not be released until the iPhone launch event in 2025. The September 9, 2024, "It's Glowtime" event is at least very unlikely to include the iPhone SE 4.
Rumor Score: Possible
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Comments
For the last years… just the day before the launch of a new iPhone… Kuo launches a ‘news’ about the next year's cellphone!
Now… he is getting bolder… because it ‘announces’ something for 2047.
Long ago… some Apple Silicon Design's team said that they… ‘fixed the requirements for the design of the chip… three years in advance.’
We are in 2024… plus 3 years… 2027!
But it is funny how Kuo and Gurman… build up expectations… specially when there are no new news…
But at the same time, I can see why Apple's fed up with those competitors trying to capitalize on Apple's success with outrageous fees.
Qualcomm seems to be in the losing game in the long run by refusing to cooperate with an important client.
While the overall specifications are public, how to make them work in the real-world involves lots of very carefully-kept trade secrets. The successful vendors, especially Qualcomm, use these trade secrets instead of patents so that they don't have to disclose them publicly.
Essentially, Apple is having to re-discover / re-invent these trade secrets internally. It's a long process driven by trial and error. It's not something you can arbitrarily schedule a completion date for. Intel sucked at this, which is why their modems generally sucked, why they never had a decently working 4G model, why they were never going to get to 5G, and why they more or less had to give away their modem division. If Apple is planning on having a chip taped out, debugged, and in production next year that means feel they've cracked everything. Once they're started with actual production, they will probably be able to produce modems for existing and upgraded standards at a reasonably fast pace.
An interesting revenge move for Apple would be to publish everything they've learned about building cellular modems (all of the industry trade secrets). This would nuke Qualcomm's balance sheet as cheap competitors would spring up all over the place. Qualcomm would still control the bleeding edge in the short term, but if it creates an inability to over-license their patent portfolio (they force customers to license patents they're not using and are widely considered exploitative in their licensing practices for their chipsets) it will cut hard into their earnings.
Control their own destiny. That's Apple's mission. Back in the PowerPC days, Apple kept promising to get to 3GHz Macs, but kept missing deadlines, so that's why they eventually switched to Intel. The Motorola PowerPC platform, of which Apple was a partner, was just not delivering on the performance-per-watt promises.
But is going all in-house a smart choice in the long run? It's working well for Apple now, but there's so much back-pressure building against proprietary platforms.
Let's hope that they are future-focused on 6G and beyond. Leapfrog the industry llike they did with Apple Silicon.
Apple probably wants to build new devices incorporating a modem (their modem), and Apple can’t do that unless they have their own Apple Vision almost assuredly would’ve had an Apple modem in it. If it was ready, Shrinking the Apple Vision to the size of a pair glasses (which critics cry about) can’t happen without an Apple modem inside it at least not in the way Apple would want to design it?
How long did it take Apple beginning to end to replace Intel CPU’S about 12 years? P.A. Semi Acquired in 2008, M1 Mac released in 2020.
For me, I’d like to see more power efficient wireless connections and ubiquitous coverage. Bandwidth isn’t a big feature anymore. So, if Apple can produce highly efficient 5G modems that supports networks everywhere, that’s good enough.
Yes, Apple should do something to make the traditional suppliers admit publically they were dicking around with the standard in order to protect a monopoly position.
No longer need sim card. All products will be control by e-sim.
Finally, we may see iPad and Mac line up without Wi-Fi only.
(Written from my Mac tethered to my iPhone)
In listings up to 2022, Apple hadn't made the top 20 major patent holder list for 6G. That was led by Intel, Samsung, IBM and Huawei.