I’ve sort of maxed out on the things I do with my phone. I’m still using mostly the same apps and features I’ve been using for years. The biggest thing that has changed for me is the health related apps and the Apple Watch handles a lot of them.
I always buy devices with consideration for growth and I haven’t maxed out any iPhone since the 4s. This has put me on a 4-5 year refresh cycle. I expect my iPhone 14 Pro Max will serve me for another 2-3 years. It does everything I need it to do and still looks and feels like new.
It's barely changed? Also, why would you not get a new phone each year with all these subsidies? It's a very low cost for something people use all the time and one of the most important devices that people own. I will always want each improvement, no matter how small. So many of our possessions are things that don't change features at all, like clothing, shoes, cars, and so on and so on. They might look different but that's all the justification my wife needs to buy more clothing. This is dumb, and almost no reason not to upgrade unless you have no money to begin with. The service is more expensive than the phone...
Upgrading has become a pain with all these 2 factors requirements. I can’t just restore my iPhone and hope my RSA keys work…I have to get new ones from work. Not sure if other authenticators would be restored with an iPhone restore like banking or email.
It's barely changed? Also, why would you not get a new phone each year with all these subsidies? It's a very low cost for something people use all the time and one of the most important devices that people own. I will always want each improvement, no matter how small. So many of our possessions are things that don't change features at all, like clothing, shoes, cars, and so on and so on. They might look different but that's all the justification my wife needs to buy more clothing. This is dumb, and almost no reason not to upgrade unless you have no money to begin with. The service is more expensive than the phone...
I'm an iPhone 11 Pro Max user and still don't see the need to upgrade. While I assume some of the points you are talking about are carrier related and based in America perhaps for some it may be easy to change phones as you suggested. However. In many other countries that's not possible. It's super expensive outside of the USA. I'm in Japan and it's already ungodly expensive and in order to keep a fair price in America. We the people outside of America get hammered with price increases so the US market doesn't get bumped up. Then add the exchange rate and very quickly the iPhone becomes super high in cost. Some may argue that there are newer functions and etc.. inside but I look at from this point. My 11 Pro Max cost at the time it was introduced roughly 130.000 yen from my carrier. The 12 and 13 I ignored because I wasn't interested in minor changes in my mind. The 14 I thought i would try but the cost was just too high. It was close to 200,000 yen. The 15 was even worse being about 230.000 yen. The 16 did come down in price but it's around 189,000 yen. These are the Pro Max models. My 11 has no issues and does take great pics and videos that I and my family enjoy.
It would be great to have USB-C so I could use some better functionality in storage devices and perhaps on mirroring Apple TV shows that are downloaded for offline viewing. Because as long as it is HD videos you cannot mirror from a lightning port to TV/monitor shows from Apple. SD format is no problem in offline mirror viewing but not HD shows. You need to have internet in order to do that. That'll be a rant for another day.
Still while it would be nice to have a newer iPhone I will be skipping the 16. The 17 will be much better in terms of RAM and perhaps onboard storage but if the price doesn't come back close enough to what my 11 was then I just don't see me buying. My 11 would have to die or be badly broken that would force me buy and even then I might not be able to afford a new iPhone. If I were in America and had enough funds on me while there I would be in a better mind to buy. Outside of America has become way too expensive to buy unless one has no other choice but to buy it.
As @JohnC1959 notes, tech matures. In the 90s and well into the 2000s, I had a general rule that a desktop required replacing in 3-5 years max and when laptops really made it as “useful” devices, it was 2-3 years before their plodding nature and atrocious battery life kiboshed things. Even within that time window, they weren’t great. For myself, Ivy Bridge changed that a fair bit and when I got the 2014 5K iMac fully loaded it lasted 7 wonderful years and a few where it was showing its age. My wife’s still rocking her “Early 2015” MBPro. She will finally upgrade when the M4 models launch.
What’s that got to do with the iPhone? Well, I expect to replace my 15Pro in about four years… either when it becomes noticeably too slow or it can no longer run the present iOS, whichever comes first. It’s coincidence that my model supports Apple Intelligence and I’ll admit to doubting its use to me on a phone. That said, I expect it to be a major upgrade reason when I get around to replacing my M1Max MBPro…
I'd be happy to update from my 3rd gen SE, but I'm holding out for Apple to bring out a new version. I like the size of the SE models, and I'd really rather have Touch ID instead of Face ID. I probably won't get what I want. Sigh...
It's barely changed? Also, why would you not get a new phone each year with all these subsidies? It's a very low cost for something people use all the time and one of the most important devices that people own. I will always want each improvement, no matter how small. So many of our possessions are things that don't change features at all, like clothing, shoes, cars, and so on and so on. They might look different but that's all the justification my wife needs to buy more clothing. This is dumb, and almost no reason not to upgrade unless you have no money to begin with. The service is more expensive than the phone...
Fully agree. The iPhone is my most important device. I use it constantly. I want the very latest features in this critical device. A new iPhone is at the very top of my “where do I get the most value for my money” list, after only things like “a roof over my head” and “food”. Oh, water and air.
A few weeks ago I posted a complaint here that AI and much of the rest of the Mac news sites were doing articles about the iPhone 17. Where were the stories about the 16, I mean it was coming out in just a few weeks. Well, I guess I was wrong. Now that it’s out I understand. The 16 is just not that compelling. It makes sense that you were skipping ahead to next year’s iPhone.
The simple fact is that computing devices, in general--phones, desktops, laptops and tablets--are now as fast and feature-laden as the vast majority of people will ever need them to be. It's not just that people "feel" no need to upgrade... there truly is no need. This phenomenon may affect Apple more than most other companies because its products are well-built for long-term reliability, they are well-supported for many years (6, I think?) by the latest and free OS updates and Apple's consistent, minimalist design philosophy means that older models are barely distinguishable from new. All of those are great for the consumer, but honestly not great for Apple, at least in terms of pushing people to more frequent upgrades. So no surprise that Apple and other companies will be marketing the hell out of AI on devices as a "must have" new feature--there has been nothing like that in a long time. We'll see if consumers are excited enough about it to drive a more robust upgrade cycle.
Phones and computers both used to get monumentally faster every year... now I honestly can't tell the difference at all from one to another. Even a 5 year ago in upgrade doesn't feel much different. we've plateaued.
There is no excitement. Talked to a few colleagues today that could swap their XR (!) for any model but didn't care. And worse... their kids stopped talking iPhone models 2 years ago. The incessant hyperbole marketing, the lack of improvements (they didn't care about 5G and joked about the number of lenses), the formulaic keynotes, and - as they said "Jobs was a visionary - Cook is just a corporate CEO causing innovation to stall".
"Nobody eats there anymore, it's too crowded!"
Data doesn't support your claim.
As for Jobs vs Cook, nonsense claim. Jobs was unique in that he was a product manager in addition to CEO, and in fact shirked typical CEO duties to his COO, Cook. Most CEOs are not product managers and do not do this. Cook is one of the most successful CEOs of the past century. Innovation has not "stalled" whatsoever. You're just bored now, as iPhone is a mature product category. Seek other meaning in your life.
I really don’t want a phone any bigger than my iPhone 12 mini so I’m holding onto it for as long as I possibly can and then will probably grudgingly upgrade to the next smallest I can find, maybe a 2nd hand iPhone 13 mini. All Apple’s current phones are too big for my liking. The world sadly seems to want bigger and bigger phones.
Phones and computers both used to get monumentally faster every year... now I honestly can't tell the difference at all from one to another. Even a 5 year ago in upgrade doesn't feel much different. we've plateaued.
Arguably, the gains are progressing correspondingly to increasing transistor counts. In the past, in the heyday of the 80s and 90s, virtually all of the transistors were devoted to the CPU only. FPUs were off-chip, caches were off-chip, etc. With those things going on-chip along with implementations of superscalar, out-of-order, branch prediction, deeper-pipelining, it allowed big gains in CPU single-thread performance, year-on-year.
Well physics is kind of getting in the way, and you can't just ramp up frequency ad infinitum, or branch prediction can only predict so far. What's happening is performance is being ramped up along different axes. Instead of single fore performance, multiple CPU cores are being added and vector units are being added. GPUs are being added. Hardware specific functions are being added (video decode/encode).
On aggregate, performance is tracking along with transistor counts.
Examples. Hardware raytracing is doubling to quadrupling framerate for 3D type apps. 8bit, 16bit, 32bit SIMD ops (including neural engines) are doubling, quadrupling. So on and so forth. And, you are still getting 10% to 20% for CPUs!
At some point you are not going to shrink the die anymore. Then what will happen? How much innovation can you fit in to a phone anyhow? What can you possibility need more in a phone?
The simple fact is that computing devices, in general--phones, desktops, laptops and tablets--are now as fast and feature-laden as the vast majority of people will ever need them to be. It's not just that people "feel" no need to upgrade... there truly is no need. This phenomenon may affect Apple more than most other companies because its products are well-built for long-term reliability, they are well-supported for many years (6, I think?) by the latest and free OS updates and Apple's consistent, minimalist design philosophy means that older models are barely distinguishable from new. All of those are great for the consumer, but honestly not great for Apple, at least in terms of pushing people to more frequent upgrades. So no surprise that Apple and other companies will be marketing the hell out of AI on devices as a "must have" new feature--there has been nothing like that in a long time. We'll see if consumers are excited enough about it to drive a more robust upgrade cycle.
Great post.
In terms of the current marketing hypegasm for all things AI, I think we saw the same thing with 5G wireless. The first 5G phones from all manufacturers were very heavily promoted as a key reason to upgrade by phone manufacturers, wireless carriers (duh!), and tech media pundits. Once all the balloons deflated and the cakes were consumed, did the arrival of 5G really qualify as a game changer for the majority of 5G phone buyers? I can't speak for everyone but for the most part the only thing that changed for me was the little 4G on the top right of my phone now says 5G. My connectivity is not noticeably faster and all of the dead zones I had to deal with when using LTE and 4G are still dead zones. Once it a while while traveling further away from home I may see 5G UW show up briefly but that's about it. If I decided to stop and live in my car where meaningful 5G exists I suppose things would be different.
However, it's not like the move to 5G was not meaningful. It's simply a reality that it will still take more time for 5G to reach its full potential for the overwhelming majority of users. It wasn't a step function, but rather a slow ramp that will go on for another 3 to ?? many more years depending on where you live, or more precisely, how many 5G towers get built in your areas. In the case of 5G the main constraint is getting infrastructure in place, not the capability of the devices. The adoption potential for 5G should be close to 100% because nearly everyone wants faster and wider communication pipes. The availability of infrastructure is the constraint.
I think AI will have a similar ramp-up but it should not be as distinct or lengthy as 5G. The biggest question is what and where are the constraints that will keep AI from achieving high levels of adoption quickly? The availability of AI service providers, i.e., infrastructure, shouldn't be a constraint because everyone and their brother is jumping on the AI bandwagon. People hanging on to older devices that can't support AI will slow its adoption down for a while. The quality of the AI that we end up with on our devices is still TBD. But unlike 5G, there is no real singular definition for AI, so it will trickle out from many sources and users will gravitate towards the slices and pieces that they find useful that are supported on the devices they already own or will purchase in the future. AI adoption won't be a step function, but the massive size of Apple's installed base will still mean that small steps taken across a broad scope of AI features and capabilities and services will still keep Apple's profits healthy for a long time. Apple users who don't upgradea device for a given cycle or two or five are still a profit center for Apple due to services. Just keep them happy and they will eventually be back for more and every time they come back they will likely spend a little more.
The new phones have Secure Enclave, which brings hardware based privacy lights for the camera. Before this, it was software, which can be changed. With hardware it will be much harder to mess with the light by malware.
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What’s that got to do with the iPhone? Well, I expect to replace my 15Pro in about four years… either when it becomes noticeably too slow or it can no longer run the present iOS, whichever comes first. It’s coincidence that my model supports Apple Intelligence and I’ll admit to doubting its use to me on a phone. That said, I expect it to be a major upgrade reason when I get around to replacing my M1Max MBPro…
My Bad.
Data doesn't support your claim.
As for Jobs vs Cook, nonsense claim. Jobs was unique in that he was a product manager in addition to CEO, and in fact shirked typical CEO duties to his COO, Cook. Most CEOs are not product managers and do not do this. Cook is one of the most successful CEOs of the past century. Innovation has not "stalled" whatsoever. You're just bored now, as iPhone is a mature product category. Seek other meaning in your life.
Well physics is kind of getting in the way, and you can't just ramp up frequency ad infinitum, or branch prediction can only predict so far. What's happening is performance is being ramped up along different axes. Instead of single fore performance, multiple CPU cores are being added and vector units are being added. GPUs are being added. Hardware specific functions are being added (video decode/encode).
On aggregate, performance is tracking along with transistor counts.
Examples. Hardware raytracing is doubling to quadrupling framerate for 3D type apps. 8bit, 16bit, 32bit SIMD ops (including neural engines) are doubling, quadrupling. So on and so forth. And, you are still getting 10% to 20% for CPUs!
In terms of the current marketing hypegasm for all things AI, I think we saw the same thing with 5G wireless. The first 5G phones from all manufacturers were very heavily promoted as a key reason to upgrade by phone manufacturers, wireless carriers (duh!), and tech media pundits. Once all the balloons deflated and the cakes were consumed, did the arrival of 5G really qualify as a game changer for the majority of 5G phone buyers? I can't speak for everyone but for the most part the only thing that changed for me was the little 4G on the top right of my phone now says 5G. My connectivity is not noticeably faster and all of the dead zones I had to deal with when using LTE and 4G are still dead zones. Once it a while while traveling further away from home I may see 5G UW show up briefly but that's about it. If I decided to stop and live in my car where meaningful 5G exists I suppose things would be different.
However, it's not like the move to 5G was not meaningful. It's simply a reality that it will still take more time for 5G to reach its full potential for the overwhelming majority of users. It wasn't a step function, but rather a slow ramp that will go on for another 3 to ?? many more years depending on where you live, or more precisely, how many 5G towers get built in your areas. In the case of 5G the main constraint is getting infrastructure in place, not the capability of the devices. The adoption potential for 5G should be close to 100% because nearly everyone wants faster and wider communication pipes. The availability of infrastructure is the constraint.
I think AI will have a similar ramp-up but it should not be as distinct or lengthy as 5G. The biggest question is what and where are the constraints that will keep AI from achieving high levels of adoption quickly? The availability of AI service providers, i.e., infrastructure, shouldn't be a constraint because everyone and their brother is jumping on the AI bandwagon. People hanging on to older devices that can't support AI will slow its adoption down for a while. The quality of the AI that we end up with on our devices is still TBD. But unlike 5G, there is no real singular definition for AI, so it will trickle out from many sources and users will gravitate towards the slices and pieces that they find useful that are supported on the devices they already own or will purchase in the future. AI adoption won't be a step function, but the massive size of Apple's installed base will still mean that small steps taken across a broad scope of AI features and capabilities and services will still keep Apple's profits healthy for a long time. Apple users who don't upgradea device for a given cycle or two or five are still a profit center for Apple due to services. Just keep them happy and they will eventually be back for more and every time they come back they will likely spend a little more.