iPhone 16 struggles to catch on while Pro models hold strong

Posted:
in iPhone edited October 30

Apple's iPhone 16 launch is off to a slow start, with early sales suggesting that buyers might be more interested in 2023's models than the latest upgrades.

iPhone 15 and iPhone 16 with multiple camera lenses on the back, featuring a reflective surface and a partially visible logo.
iPhone 15 and iPhone 16



According to early data, the iPhone 16 models, released in September 2024, appear to be off to a slower start compared to last year's iPhone 15 lineup. Unlike recent years, the 2024 release aligns closely with Apple's typical pre-pandemic launch schedule, providing a comparable look at year-over-year performance.

Reports, including one from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP), reveal that the iPhone 16's initial sales haven't matched the swift uptake of the iPhone 15 lineup from the same period in 2023.

During their first two weeks of sales, these models collectively represented a 20% share of U.S. iPhone sales. In contrast, the iPhone 15 series captured a significantly higher 29% share during the same timeframe in 2023, indicating a noticeable drop in early adoption for the latest models.

This difference becomes even more apparent when examining the high-end models. In September 2024, the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max constituted 12% of total iPhone sales, down from the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max's 15% share in the same period a year prior.

Given Apple's continued sales of its legacy models alongside new ones, the shift in consumer interest from the latest releases to last year's models is particularly noteworthy.

Bar chart comparing iPhone model sales percentages in September 2023 and 2024, showing different colored segments for each model.
iPhone model distribution (quarters ending in September 2024 and September 2023). Image credit: CIRP



The persistence of older models in the market provides further context to this trend. In September 2023, iPhone 13 and older models accounted for around 26% of U.S. sales, whereas in 2024, iPhone 14 and older models contributed to 24% of sales, indicating a relatively steady preference for older devices over the years.

The consistency contrasts with the noticeable shift toward year-old models in 2024. In 2023, iPhone 15 models accounted for 56% of sales in the September 2024 quarter, a notable increase from the 46% share the iPhone 14 models held in 2023.

The 10% increase in demand for the old models suggests a reluctance among consumers to upgrade to the latest releases immediately.

Analyst perspectives on future performance



Analysts have noted adjustments in Apple's production strategy to accommodate these dynamics. JP Morgan reported that while demand for the iPhone 16 series is stable, it slightly trails the iPhone 15 series in availability and shipping times.

Notably, U.S. shipping times for the iPhone 16 Pro Max have shortened from 21 days in 2023 to 15 days in 2024, indicating Apple's efforts to efficiently manage supply for its premium models.

Meanwhile, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo observed that demand for the iPhone 16 Pro models has met Apple's expectations, prompting the company to maintain production even during China's National Day holiday to fulfill orders. However, demand for the iPhone 16 and 16 Plus has been more subdued, leading Apple to cautiously scale back on some component orders for these baseline models by an estimated 3% to 5%.

While the reduction reflects the tepid demand for non-Pro models, it's unlikely to significantly impact overall production levels, as Apple maintains steady output for the high-demand Pro models.

As the holiday season approaches, Apple may see renewed interest, especially in the iPhone 16 Pro models. The period could prompt a reevaluation of the positioning and appeal of the standard iPhone 16 and 16 Plus, potentially setting a new direction for future product cycles.



Read on AppleInsider

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 12
    charlesncharlesn Posts: 1,132member
    And the basis for this supposed sales data? Oh, that's right, it's all "proprietary" and secret, so no way to actually fact check it. But I'm sure CIRP appreciates AppleInsider continuing to act as a free marketing platform for them. Seriously, why not categorize this as sponsored content, since that's effectively what it is, and at least get paid for your efforts? Apple has an incredibly diverse supply chain, and the idea that supposed "analysts," with no input from Apple, could know that Apple cut component orders from 3%-5% is ridiculous on the face of it. 
    edited October 30 ssfe11williamlondon
  • Reply 2 of 12
    oldenboomoldenboom Posts: 34unconfirmed, member
    Way more interesting would be actual use statistics with, granular enough to also see which model is actually being used, grouped per screen size. I suspect many people still use their 2020/2022 SE and Mini phones due to lack of proper upgrade opportunities (read: the missing 16 mini). I still expect Apple will some day realise a proper market does exist for the Mini. I don't care about the SE is expected to grow to iPhone 16 size. It's too big for a daily business phone.

  • Reply 3 of 12
    omasouomasou Posts: 624member
    I really don't understand why folks are so confused that the Pro models are outselling non Pro models.

    If someone has been holding off upgrading or not and is buying an iPhone that they know will need more power than usual to support Apple Intelligence. Then why in the world would they buy a non Pro model. It's not like past years where "you know what, this model is good enough"

    But I guess we'll all find out tomorrow.
    danox
  • Reply 4 of 12
    mpantonempantone Posts: 2,223member
    Tomorrow’s earnings announcement will include just nine days of iPhone 16 sales. It will be unwise to jump conclusions on the new models’ popularity. Moreover Apple hasn’t provided unit sales data for years.

    Q4 results will be a solid indicator of the new generation’s popularity. Those earnings results should be announced in late January 2025.


    williamlondon
  • Reply 5 of 12
    It makes sense that the people with the most amount of money to burn would quickly buy the more expensive model.

    The rest of us are saving, waiting for refurbs, or hoping against hope for another iPhone Mini, because the regular model is still too friggin big.
    williamlondon
  • Reply 6 of 12
    charlesncharlesn Posts: 1,132member
    mpantone said:
    Tomorrow’s earnings announcement will include just nine days of iPhone 16 sales. It will be unwise to jump conclusions on the new models’ popularity. Moreover Apple hasn’t provided unit sales data for years.

    Q4 results will be a solid indicator of the new generation’s popularity. Those earnings results should be announced in late January 2025.


    Exactly right. I'm sure the conference call tomorrow with provide some insight into how iPhone 16 sales are going beyond the nine days that will be included in the Q4 results. (Fyi, Apple's fiscal year ends on Sept 30th, so they'll be reporting Q4 results tomorrow. The earnings results reported in January will be Q1 2025.)

    Also: we can't discount the unprecedented and weird circumstances surrounding iPhone 16 with its singular marquee feature--Apple Intelligence--unavailable from launch through nearly all of October, and even then, only slowly rolling out in dribs and drabs over the next 5-6 months. Remember last year's "TITANIUM" campaign for the 15 Pro models? Imagine if they had debuted with no titanium, just the usual stainless steel band, with the promise that by the end of October, the top part of the band would be titanium, and they'd add Ti gradually after that so that by end of March of the following year, the whole band would be titanium. Sounds ridiculous, I know, but that's what we've got with Apple Intelligence. 

  • Reply 7 of 12
    mpantonempantone Posts: 2,223member
    charlesn said:
    mpantone said:
    Tomorrow’s earnings announcement will include just nine days of iPhone 16 sales. It will be unwise to jump conclusions on the new models’ popularity. Moreover Apple hasn’t provided unit sales data for years.

    Q4 results will be a solid indicator of the new generation’s popularity. Those earnings results should be announced in late January 2025.


    (Fyi, Apple's fiscal year ends on Sept 30th, so they'll be reporting Q4 results tomorrow. The earnings results reported in January will be Q1 2025.) 

    This is incorrect. Apple's quarters finish on the last Saturday of the closing month. They are all thirteen weeks long with the rare exception of a fourteen week quarter (it happens once every several years). Thus Apple's 2024 fiscal year ended on Saturday September 28th.

    If the fiscal year isn't explicitly mentioned, it is automatically assumed that the quarter mentioned pertains to the calendar year. So Q4 CY2024 is Q1 FY2025 for Apple (ending on Saturday December 28th). In this particular discussion about iPhone 16 generation popularity, the fiscal year isn't pertinent.
  • Reply 8 of 12
    omasouomasou Posts: 624member
    FY2024Q4 reports tomorrow.
    FY2025Q1 reports February 2025.

    https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/
    edited October 30
  • Reply 9 of 12
    PemaPema Posts: 141member
    This is hardly news to me. I purchased the iPhone 16 Pro on launch day. I took it back the next day. 
    I am very pleased with my iPhone 15 Pro. There just wasn't enough in the iPhone 16 Pro to warrant the extra $1000 it would have cost less the trade-in. 
    I am very keen to see Apple's line up for the iPhone 17 Air. 
  • Reply 10 of 12
    danoxdanox Posts: 3,368member
    Didn’t the 14 and the 15 iPhones share the same fate comparison to the Pro and Max models in their generation in both years the more expensive models out sold the cheaper models.
  • Reply 11 of 12
    mpantonempantone Posts: 2,223member
    It's imperative to understand that CIPR only tracks US iPhone sales.

    And the USA is not the largest iPhone market. And hasn't been for well over a decade.

    Remember that only ~3.5% of the world's population are Americans.
    edited October 30 ssfe11
  • Reply 12 of 12
    I like the new article title, much better!
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