Once again the Chinese have upended the market. This time with AI. The whole Western model has been debunked. Kind of reminds me of the 1990s when Oracle and other big name tech titans committed to spend trillions to create the information superhighway with the mantra the first and best would control it. When a little canary in the coal mine tweeted 'hey we have just such a model an it costs nada' it is called the internet and it was invented in the 70s as ARPANET bringing the whole proposed model crashing down. And the rest is history as they say. The reason that the Western model is unwieldily is the gargantuan amounts of data and the nuclear processing power required to deliver even a smidgen of info that it becomes like the Russian wristwatch: a clunky face with a car battery required to run it. Not to mention the fact that the smidgen of data is woefully inadequate and wrong most of time.
China is the future: manufacturing, EV and now AIs.
You might want to pay some attention to the deleveraging going on in the Chinese housing market, and see how deep the scars of that go before declaring them the future. Not saying there aren’t problems here (lord knows, there are plenty), but this sort of jingoism seems rather facile.
I think the market overreacted severely. If the new programming techniques can match existing LLMs using less advanced chips. Imagine what can be achieved using cutting edge chips. It's not as if LLMs have already been perfected. The last mile of development is usually the most difficult and most expensive. Maybe cutting edge chips are needed to cross that last mile.
For example, I still don't trust AI generated summaries and shortcuts because they are still too prone to making up stuff. AI hasn't solved the problem of how does an AI learn to distinguish what's true and not true, right and wrong? Maybe going from 98% accurate to 99.999% accurate requires the most advanced AI chips, and lots of them. I'm no expert, I don't know. In fact nobody knows.
I think the market got it right with respect to Nvidia. Nvidia was vastly over-valued anyway, but the methodological innovations from deepseek seem to make Nvidia's advantages less relevant. In particular, they reduced the need for high speed interconnects across GPUs. They also greatly reduced the cost of inference, which means more inference can be done on devices -- like Apple's -- that have no Nvidia chips.
The market got it dead wrong with respect to TSMC. This development is good news for TSMC because it means a wider diversity of firms can develop their own silicon for AI and be less dependent on Nvidia. Those firms then become customers of TSMC, cutting Nvidia out. It might even be good news for Intel, though Intel's board seems determined to sink the company.
AAPL actually went up yesterday and the market got that right, too. This is great news for Apple. It validates their approach to on-device computing and their unified memory architecture. It might even mean that they can use their own silicon for all of their AI needs, including training.
Bingo…. Everyone of the competing AI Model companies are going to use (incorporate) the techniques used in DeepSeek if it works as advertised, these developments might even allow Apple to push back the use of Apple Intelligence to the 14 Pro and 13 Pro iPhones? Now that would be interesting, the big losers appear to be Microsoft, Meta, OpenAI, and Nvidia, in particular who spent billions thinking they were gonna have a moat.
It appears they have none, hopefully Apple has the M4 Mac Studio (256 gig) Ultra prepped for a public release sometime around WWDC 2025, also this development probably reinforces Apple getting into the server market in some capacity because they seem to be best equipped in house to pivot into any direction they choose in comparison to their competition.
By now, AI is a known quantity. Reverse engineering and IP theft are not new either. This is just the tip of the proverbial "iceberg" as relates to an incoming swarm of products / services like this. yawn. China is not new to knockoffs, software included. AI is no different. Easy to develop something rapidly when you're copying the work of pioneers who put much of their lives into the work. Should software controlled by a hostile nation be on American's devices? It's an interesting question. But outside of government officials, members of the military, or those with security credentials, probably not too big a concern. But it's worth investigating. It's not like we didn't just have the chinese surveilance devices surveying our nation from the air last year. The less information an adversarial nation has on another nations citizens, the better. It may not be a WMD or whatever, but it's definitely not something to be dismissed.
I am not so sure about this.
Recall how back in the late 60s and early 70s we used to mock the Japanese, especially their cars. And then gradually they upended the industry and forced us to up our game, in cars, electronics and cameras.
I would not suggest that the Chinese are ripping anyone off, it is just that they are doing it the smart way and we are doing it the hard and unwieldily way.
Much as Mr Trump wants to make America great again and resurrect the American Empire, going forward it is going to be the Chinese Empire.
You only need to read books like 'The Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire (Gibbons)' or Barbarians at the Gate and realise what's happening with the US. We have become fat and lazy; too much booze and too many drugs; let our guard down at our borders which is exactly what happened with the almighty Romans.
The Chinese have captured the EV market; they have sown up the manufacturing of just about everything and now they are showing us how AI is done. Marc Andreessen of Mosaic fame calls this the 'Sputnik' moment. When the Russians orbited the earth before we even knew how to build rockets.
It forced us (remember JFK's famous speech) to wake up, commit billions of dollars, create NASA and land on the moon in 1969.
Perhaps Trump and this event will force us to wake up and take the reins and rise up out of the ashes or we will continue to sink into oblivion: a nation of lazy drug users who can't get their game together. Our problem is not that we have too many undocumented migrants. Even if we round up and evict every single one of them it won't restore our boldness, vision and greatness.
That's what is happening here. Blaming the Chinese for stealing our IP is just nonsense and short viewed.
Well, I guess Chat GPT creator OpenAI is just full of your nonsense then.
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OpenAI says it has evidence China’s DeepSeek used its model to train competitor
https://www.ft.com/content/a0dfedd1-5255-4fa9-8ccc-1fe01de87ea6
On my social media feed someone said this is equivalent to robbing a bank and then calling out robbery while you're counting your haul!