How many consecutive iPhone generations is it now where the catchy marketing terminologies such as “Apple Intelligence” dwarf the actual performance of the feature? What do you think SJ would say if he came back to find Siri is still about as useless and that software and hardware are about as interwoven as a burlap sack after summer camp games. Services, the garden wall, and the litigation moat are keeping this company afloat which is why so many millions are spent annually to defend it in court and why so many others want to tear it down. The hardware is still brilliant but without innovative software that lives up to the Chiat Day-on-Prozac and Millennial halcyon hype machines the market will soon give up waiting for the messiah and burn down the temple.
How many consecutive iPhone generations is it now where the catchy marketing terminologies such as “Apple Intelligence” dwarf the actual performance of the feature? What do you think SJ would say if he came back to find Siri is still about as useless and that software and hardware are about as interwoven as a burlap sack after summer camp games. Services, the garden wall, and the litigation moat are keeping this company afloat which is why so many millions are spent annually to defend it in court and why so many others want to tear it down. The hardware is still brilliant but without innovative software that lives up to the Chiat Day-on-Prozac and Millennial halcyon hype machines the market will soon give up waiting for the messiah and burn down the temple.
Steve has been dead 13.5 years. Tim has now run Apple for as long as Steve did when he returned for his second tenure as CEO. And yes, he's been a total failure, Apple is now gasping its last breaths and "the market will soon give up waiting for the messiah and burn down the temple." We know this is true because all signs and available evidence point to it:
Apple is the most valuable company on Earth.
Apple just posted another record quarter of revenue and profit in a continuing string of quarters that break previous records.
Apple was just acknowledged as The World's Most Admired Company for the 18th year in a row.
Apple's share price has increased from around $14/share just prior to Steve's death to $236 as of Friday's close.
It's ironic; the Cult of Dead Steve that formed after 2011 clings tightly to the dream that Apple will fail without him, they practically pray for it to happen and no amount of success will deter them from the fantasy that the collapse of Apple is nigh. Why? Because if Apple succeeds without Steve, maybe he wasn't God after all.
Maybe not. The discussion of India on the call was really interesting. Second-largest smartphone market in the world, iPhone was the top selling model there this quarter, but still has very low penetration vs the potential market, so iPhone could see significant growth with a market of that size. Seems like Apple is really gearing up to make a much bigger and much more serious push into India. At the very least, maybe growth in India can help offset the issues in China.
I think India only maintains the current rate of iPhone unit sales. Phone ownership lifetimes are only getting longer, with unit sales steadily declining. Need to do some math. It will depend on how long people hold onto phones. I can easily see 4 to 5 years being the average. It was about 3 years a few years ago?
Another thing to watch out for are the second hand sales/usage of iPhones. The de facto way for Apple to sell to the low end. Their unit sales could actually decrease a little bit while their active user base grows. This would be a net positive.
What could change it are LLM models requiring 8 to 16 GB RAM. This could drive a quicker replacement cycle, but I currently don't think so. The mass market is pretty happy with what they have, the new features have a fair bit of complication to use, and therefore, people will wait.
How many consecutive iPhone generations is it now where the catchy marketing terminologies such as “Apple Intelligence” dwarf the actual performance of the feature? What do you think SJ would say if he came back to find Siri is still about as useless and that software and hardware are about as interwoven as a burlap sack after summer camp games. Services, the garden wall, and the litigation moat are keeping this company afloat which is why so many millions are spent annually to defend it in court and why so many others want to tear it down. The hardware is still brilliant but without innovative software that lives up to the Chiat Day-on-Prozac and Millennial halcyon hype machines the market will soon give up waiting for the messiah and burn down the temple.
Well so far it hasn’t even been one generation….. what are you talking about? WWDC 2024 wasn’t that the announcement date for Apple Intelligence? It hasn’t even been a year.
They did say "driven by the new iPad Mini and latest iPad Air". I would interpret that to mean that those were the two biggest sellers.
Correct, but that's because every iPad model is cheaper than the iPad Pro models (in the case of the iPad and iPad mini, the starting price of an iPad Pro is double).
The interesting part of this news is that the cheapest iPad -- the regular model -- is also not a driving factor, according to Apple. Consumers are largely going for the mid-class devices there, and I think that's also reflected in the iPhone and Mac sales. The insanely good deal on the M4 Mac mini may sway that maxim for Macs in the coming quarters, though, assuming the US can avoid a recession and trade war in the year ahead.
What could change it are LLM models requiring 8 to 16 GB RAM. This could drive a quicker replacement cycle, but I currently don't think so. The mass market is pretty happy with what they have, the new features have a fair bit of complication to use, and therefore, people will wait.
Well, never underestimate the marketing prowess of a company that sold people on a piece of titanium trim being a reason to upgrade their phones! I don't think Apple broke them out separately, but I would have been curious to know how U.S. iPhone sales did this quarter since it was the one market that actually had these early stages of Apple Intelligence implemented for the whole three months. Not that what we have is all that compelling--if people are upgrading for Apple Intelligence, I'd say it's due more to the relentless marketing for it than for what it actually does at present. Personally, I'm waiting most for "brain transplant Siri" and hoping that Apple's voice assistant will finally not be an embarrassment.
The insanely good deal on the M4 Mac mini may sway that maxim for Macs in the coming quarters, though, assuming the US can avoid a recession and trade war in the year ahead.
And just like that, "the dumbest trade war in history" (per current Wall Street Journal headline) is now here. This is certainly a great start on pushing the U.S. into recession. It all depends on how much dumber Trump gets. Hey, there's nothing quite like making enemies of the nations that occupy your entire land-based borders! That always works out well!
What could change it are LLM models requiring 8 to 16 GB RAM. This could drive a quicker replacement cycle, but I currently don't think so. The mass market is pretty happy with what they have, the new features have a fair bit of complication to use, and therefore, people will wait.
Well, never underestimate the marketing prowess of a company that sold people on a piece of titanium trim being a reason to upgrade their phones! I don't think Apple broke them out separately, but I would have been curious to know how U.S. iPhone sales did this quarter since it was the one market that actually had these early stages of Apple Intelligence implemented for the whole three months. Not that what we have is all that compelling--if people are upgrading for Apple Intelligence, I'd say it's due more to the relentless marketing for it than for what it actually does at present. Personally, I'm waiting most for "brain transplant Siri" and hoping that Apple's voice assistant will finally not be an embarrassment.
Apple said the iP16 models performed better than iP15 models, YoY. They said the 2 to 4 weeks of data for when Apple Intelligence was available hints that 18.2’s LLM features resulted in better relative sales than the 15 models.
Obviously too early to tell. I don’t think you can separate whether AI features drove sales, if the marketing campaign drove sales, or if it was some other feature like 8 GB of RAM that drove sales. And, it wasn’t much of sales difference anyways.
Looking at AI another way, I have not heard LLM features driving sales of any device from any OEM. AI pendants and AI gadgets? Abject failure. Snapdragon X Elite AI PCs? Sales have been disappointing. Intel AI PCs? No success there either, though Intel has structural issues impacting them.
Amazon Alexa devices? Not really? They only sell because they are cheap. Or perhaps LLM chatbot services haven’t arrived there yet, so unknown. Either way, I think devices with audio only interfaces will fail until proven otherwise.
Where LLM chatbots have done well are advanced search style services, with keyboard input and large displays. They, currently, answer questions and requests, as opposed to the current search which devolved to SEO shit. Search used to answer questions well, which should be a portent for where LLM chatbots are going.
I would defend titanium and the steel before it. Your comment is like saying “it’s just gold”. Society puts a value on uncommon metals, or materials that they perceive are “premium” over the everyday materials they experience. Steel and titanium imparted value. The precision of Apple’s devices impart value. So, their marketing did its job. Perhaps your comment was an unintended compliment?
How many consecutive iPhone generations is it now where the catchy marketing terminologies such as “Apple Intelligence” dwarf the actual performance of the feature? What do you think SJ would say if he came back to find Siri is still about as useless and that software and hardware are about as interwoven as a burlap sack after summer camp games. Services, the garden wall, and the litigation moat are keeping this company afloat which is why so many millions are spent annually to defend it in court and why so many others want to tear it down. The hardware is still brilliant but without innovative software that lives up to the Chiat Day-on-Prozac and Millennial halcyon hype machines the market will soon give up waiting for the messiah and burn down the temple.
Steve has been dead 13.5 years. Tim has now run Apple for as long as Steve did when he returned for his second tenure as CEO. And yes, he's been a total failure, Apple is now gasping its last breaths and "the market will soon give up waiting for the messiah and burn down the temple." We know this is true because all signs and available evidence point to it:
Apple is the most valuable company on Earth.
Apple just posted another record quarter of revenue and profit in a continuing string of quarters that break previous records.
Apple was just acknowledged as The World's Most Admired Company for the 18th year in a row.
Apple's share price has increased from around $14/share just prior to Steve's death to $236 as of Friday's close.
It's ironic; the Cult of Dead Steve that formed after 2011 clings tightly to the dream that Apple will fail without him, they practically pray for it to happen and no amount of success will deter them from the fantasy that the collapse of Apple is nigh. Why? Because if Apple succeeds without Steve, maybe he wasn't God after all.
This post seems kind of off to me. I don’t know anyone who thinks jobs was God or anyone who hopes Apple fails without him.
I think two things are very clear:
1. Steve Jobs was an absolute visionary who shaped early mass market computing and kept revolutionizing along the way. Around the time he passed, the computing landscape had matured. He had a ton to do with that. He was a legend.
However, he wasn’t always the greatest businessman. He BECAME a great business guy after his return to Apple, streamlining product lines, forging deals, and focusing on the things that made people’s lives better.
2. Tim Cook is not a visionary. The Apple Watch turned out prettt good after competitors stabbed at the market to mediocre results. The Apple car became vaporware and the Vision Pro was a flop. Even so, Cook does pretty good at seeing opportunities and how Apple might meet them. But where he really shines is business. The man knows how to forge deals, streamline processes. Manage supply and people. And he’s fairly impeccable with his words.
While Jobs was an absolute necessity to shape primordial computing into the landscape we know today, Cook is the absolute necessity we needed to take that ball and run with it better than anyone else. The fact that Apple jumped into credit cards, video streaming (as a content creator no less), and pulled the biggest hat trick of making its own CPU/GPU SOCs is absolutely wild and something Jobs would likely have dreamed of.
Cook could not have done what Jobs did. And Jobs could not do what Cook has done. Both are legends in their own right.
But being that Steve was first and basically created the whole thing, then matured it, he gets the lions share of the recognition. It’s just the way it goes.
Cook, coming so soon after has unfortunately had to live in Steve’s shadow to a degree. But he’s earned his legendary status as well. I think he’s under appreciated at the moment, but people have woken up to just how great he is and I think he’s on track to be fully appreciated while still at the helm.
Comments
Apple is the most valuable company on Earth.
Apple just posted another record quarter of revenue and profit in a continuing string of quarters that break previous records.
Apple was just acknowledged as The World's Most Admired Company for the 18th year in a row.
Apple's share price has increased from around $14/share just prior to Steve's death to $236 as of Friday's close.
It's ironic; the Cult of Dead Steve that formed after 2011 clings tightly to the dream that Apple will fail without him, they practically pray for it to happen and no amount of success will deter them from the fantasy that the collapse of Apple is nigh. Why? Because if Apple succeeds without Steve, maybe he wasn't God after all.
Another thing to watch out for are the second hand sales/usage of iPhones. The de facto way for Apple to sell to the low end. Their unit sales could actually decrease a little bit while their active user base grows. This would be a net positive.
What could change it are LLM models requiring 8 to 16 GB RAM. This could drive a quicker replacement cycle, but I currently don't think so. The mass market is pretty happy with what they have, the new features have a fair bit of complication to use, and therefore, people will wait.
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2024/06/introducing-apple-intelligence-for-iphone-ipad-and-mac/
Where LLM chatbots have done well are advanced search style services, with keyboard input and large displays. They, currently, answer questions and requests, as opposed to the current search which devolved to SEO shit. Search used to answer questions well, which should be a portent for where LLM chatbots are going.
I would defend titanium and the steel before it. Your comment is like saying “it’s just gold”. Society puts a value on uncommon metals, or materials that they perceive are “premium” over the everyday materials they experience. Steel and titanium imparted value. The precision of Apple’s devices impart value. So, their marketing did its job. Perhaps your comment was an unintended compliment?
1. Steve Jobs was an absolute visionary who shaped early mass market computing and kept revolutionizing along the way. Around the time he passed, the computing landscape had matured. He had a ton to do with that. He was a legend.