Apple's mmWave C1 modem won't launch until 2026
A new report from analyst Ming-Chi Kuo claims that it will be 2026 before an updated version of the Apple C1 modem with mmWave will enter mass production.
Apple's C1 modem -- image credit: Apple
For all its power efficiency, the C1 5G modem does lack mmWave support. It's far from a surprise, though, that Apple is working on future versions of the modem, but now Ming-Chi Kuo claims that an mmWave C1 will not be ready for the iPhone 17 range.
Apple's C1 modem process technology:
- Baseband: 4/5nm (both technologies are similar)
- Low-frequency/Sub-6 TRx (Transceivers): 7nm
- Intermediate Frequency (IF) TRx: 7nm
- PMIC: 55nm
The C1 refreshed version is under development for mass production next year, aiming to improve-- (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo)
In the full text of the tweet, Kuo says that the "refreshed C1" chip is likely to be built using a 28nm process. This is instead of the 3nm one that was expected to be used for the iPhone, and may be in future Apple Intelligence servers.
"Unlike processors/GPUs, baseband chips don't aggressively adopt the latest advanced node because the return on investment isn't high," writes Kuo. "As a result, it's unlikely that Apple's baseband will shift to a 3nm process next year."
Previously, Ming-Chi Kuo has either sourced information from the supply chain, or been clear that he is speculating based only his previous knowledge of Apple's plans. More recently, and including this report, he has presented claims without backing or clarification.
Nonetheless, his claims are at least likely, but that is because it is inevitable that Apple will eventually release further iterations of its C-series modems. Even the claim that an Apple-made 5G mmWave modem won't be ready for the iPhone 17 range is not new.
Kuo himself has previously said that Apple will continue to use Qualcomm modems across the iPhone 17 lineup, with the exception of the expected slimmer iPhone.
The analyst implies that Apple is working on an updated C1 modem rather than a C2. Other sources have claimed that a C2 is already in development, but again that's a prediction on a par with night following day.
Rumor Score: Possible
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2025: C1 modem in “iPhone SE”, iPhone 17 Air, maybe iPad 11. Turns out it is iPhone 16e, not SE, but that’s a good rumor hit from months out.
2026: feature competitive mmWave modem for Pro models
2027: best in class modem
So, Kuo saying no mmWave modem in 2025 is a nothingburger.
The ultra low latency will be very useful in XR scenarios/automotive/Industrial and domestic robotics etc.
One example that would support that we've reached the point of diminishing returns is Ethernet and WiFi. It seems like the vast majority of PCs are at 1 Gbit/s Ethernet and only people who really need more, get 2.5 Gbit/s or 10 Gb/s for their niche applications. For WiFi, I think the WiFi 6 to 7 transition is going to take 10 years, and the only reason it happens is WiFi 7 chips and such just become the default part of a PC build, not because the mass market wants it.
So, I think Apple has decades to develop cell modems to support upcoming technology. And, the next big thing in the value chain is probably sat-com. It's just cheaper for a company to provide satellite cell service versus a company building out towers and backhaul networks to serve less and less customers. If the sat-com is refined to work through clouds and rain, it would be a no-brainer. Don't know what the state of the tech is to overcome that "if" though.
The money thing for patents will be what it has been. It will be left to the courts to negotiate patent license rates. The system is designed that way.
5.5G was being pushed at MWC this week with some ICT solutions already deployed in China. Industrial and consumer solutions are also being prepared.
Apple had zero interest in homegrown cellular solutions until Intel failed to deliver a product on time. It just wasn't on their roadmap.
It takes around a decade of R&D to reach a new generation of cellular connectivity (even if actual roll outs are getting faster). As an example, 5G development began in 2019.
Here is some speculation on my part:
Apple will likely remain behind the competition until it starts actually producing ICT infrastructure (possibly never).
That is because it is very hard to conceive Apple being able to fully take advantage of a cellular connection if it isn't actually involved in making the hardware that cellular modems connect to, and 6G is going to have a very high algorithmic load with AI squeezing every last drop out of the standard.
There will be a 'standard' and there will be interoperability of course but, while Apple will have a greater say in the standard itself (more than at any previous time), it is unlikely to submit as much as the established players which have decades of know-how and sway within the industry.
I don't know, but it certainly looks like Apple won't contribute as much fundamental research as others. That is logical to a point because Apple has mainly been a CE company so applied research makes more sense.
As an off-the-top-of-my-head example, much has been said about graphene in technology but moving from a theoretical application to an applied application can sometimes require major research initiatives.
Apple has just announced its use in its phones (graphene film in 2024 I believe) but Huawei was implementing graphene film in phones way back in 2018.
https://www.pcmag.com/news/huaweis-graphene-conduction-cooling-from-the-lab-to-your-pocket
Years before that, Huawei had to research and develop its own method to layering graphene and I know for sure that it patented the solution (along with joint patents from partners including universities). It may be that Apple is licencing graphene patents from Huawei and implementing ideas for the use of graphene film.
Huawei did the same with polar codes (Shannon's limit) in 5G. It developed the solution and got in included in the standard.
It is doing similar fundamental research for 6G.
Apple is definitely making efforts to contribute to the 6G standards, and it is also going to receive geopolitical assistance, but does it have the same know-how and engineering capacity as the industry stalwarts? Let's not forget that Apple has been actively hiring for talent in this area (in addition to what it got through the Intel deal) but it's all relatively recent for them.
Could it have pulled off something like the Shannon's limit achievement? I doubt it. That required hundreds of scientists, mathematicians and years of investigation to finally bring a workable solution to market.
It is unlikely for the simple reason, as mentioned before, that Apple is a CE company at heart. It hasn't wanted or even needed to worry about those longstanding problems (some of which went unsolved for decades because they were very tough nuts to crack).
If it weren't for Intel falling flat Apple wouldn't be doing much at all with 6G research. Better to let others do the heavy lifting and licence the results. It makes sense in part.
Personally however, I've always thought the best route would be to carry out research into those fundamental areas so I think it is the right strategic path in this case, even if there is really no right or wrong approach (as long as it is part of your strategy). That is where Apple slipped. It made some strategic mistakes.
https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/iphones-to-have-apple-6g-modems-heres-what-report-claims/amp_articleshow/105732309.cms
apple is historically known to be at the forefront of tech standards for industries in which it participates.
As it goes with most things in tech, particularly the way Apple has executed in the last 25 years the design and engineering teams are probably working at least two years ahead, the R2,C2, M4,M5,M6 or some variants have been in the works for some time?