iPhone Fold won't be an iPad or iPhone killer
The iPhone Fold is coming, and plenty of folks are ready to herald it as the new king of gadgets -- but it isn't going to dethrone any of Apple's current lineup any time soon.
Renders of a possible iPhone fold
None of you are going to be surprised, but I am not just unenthusiastic about the iPhone Fold, but actively rolling my eyes at the mere premise.
People, and by that I mean real people and not journalists who had to buy the device to cover it will buy it. It will sell early, and fast, and then settle down as the non-folding non-high-end phones take over for the rest of the release year.
Obviously, if Apple makes it, there will be an audience for it. You know it, I know it, and Apple knows it. It's not going to fail.
But, we shouldn't be so sure that the iPhone Fold is going to knock any of Apple's devices off their respective thrones. Especially not any of the other iPhones, but certainly not an iPad or MacBook.
iPhone Fold will have some inherent issues
I do understand why people are excited about the iPhone Fold. Hell, at face value, I don't think the iPhone Fold is a bad device.
I'll even tell on myself. Years and years ago, I actually welcomed the idea of a foldable iPhone.
Back when I thought the iPad mini was Apple's gift to mankind, I adored the idea of a foldable iPhone. Of course, at this point, there weren't any foldable phones on the market, and the concept of foldable tech was pretty new.
Now, many years later, I've looped back around to appreciating the crowbar separation between Apple's devices. But, before we tackle that, let's discuss practical concerns.
Drop protection
I'm a disaster when it comes to coordination. I drop things -- kind of a lot. Humans drop things, and are careless. This is why the iPhone uses Gorilla Glass.
Some of this for me is due to some faulty wiring that I have no control over, but most of it is because I tend to be absentminded. A lot of the times I drop something, it's because I got distracted.
If you look at the screen protector of my iPhone 13 mini, there's a pretty notable crack running through the bottom left corner. The cause? It fell out of my pocket at 20mph while I was biking in 2023.
Not the crack in my iPhone's screen, but not that dissimilar, either.
Fortunately, I'm smarter than I was in 2015 when I shattered my iPhone 5c after it slipped from my hands on a walk. At least I keep a screen protector on my iPhone now, so there's no major damage.
In 2005, I rolled my ankle attempting to step over a roommate's pile of laundry and textbooks. The result? An eight-pound laptop, barely six months old, with a completely obliterated screen.
I shudder to think about what would happen with a $2000 iPhone Fold. If I'm walking around with it unfolded and trip over my own two feet -- which, let's be real, would happen -- that sucker is going to break.
Catastrophically, if I had to guess.
I imagine if I owned an iPhone Fold it would go something like this | Image generated with Bing Image Creator
I'm sure I'd smash the screen or do irreparable damage to the hinge. Either way, it would be an expensive day in the ol' Neely household as I waited for the cardboard coffin to show up and take my iPhone, only to have Apple send me a new one and tell me not to do it again.
All this to say, I'm not the audience for the iPhone Fold, and I'm fine with that. I have a fair amount of people in my life who can keep a smartphone in pristine condition for years without a case.
These people and their freakish ability to keep things from hitting the ground are the target audience. And good for them, because the iPhone Fold is coming.
Ingress protection
But, even ignoring my propensity for dropping everything you put in my hands, it doesn't change the fact that the iPhone Fold is still going to have problems. It will have problems that the tried-and-true fixed glass-and-metal rectangle form doesn't.
Right now, the current generation of iPhone is IP68 rated. If you're unfamiliar with the ingress protection (IP) rating, allow me to give you a brief explanation of the system.
The first number in the IP rating is the level of "Solid foreign object" protection the device has. It starts at 0 and goes through 6.
Occasionally, you'll run into an IP rating with an X in it. That means that the device in question hasn't been tested for ingress regarding that specific category.
A zero rating for solid foreign object ingress would be like a box fan missing its front guard. Six is considered dust-tight, with microscopic ingress not even happening under a vacuum.
So, a six is fantastic.
The second number refers to protection from liquid ingress. It ranges from 0 to 9.
Zero means if you get the device wet, it's fried. Nine means the device is protected from high-temperature, high-volume jets of liquid.
Liquid ingress protection is a little bit harder to measure because a lot of it depends on the type of liquid. For example, saltwater is different than freshwater, and oil is a whole different game altogether, never mind something like a solvent.
However, Apple defines its liquid ingress protection, which is rated at an eight, as: capable of being submerged in six meters, or roughly 20 feet of fresh water, for thirty minutes.
Great, that means your phone is safe from the accidental drop in the tub or sink or getting caught in the rain. This is fantastic because I think we've all known someone who fried their early 2010s smartphone by dropping it in the tub, toilet, or getting caught in a rainstorm.
The problem with IP ratings is that they assume the device is relatively new. Apple is aware of this and even mentions it in the footnotes on its iPhone tech specs page.
If you've got an older iPhone, this is actually a riskier activity than you'd think
"Splash, water, and dust resistance are not permanent conditions. Resistance might decrease as a result of normal wear."
So while my iPhone 13 mini may have been waterproof when I got it in 2022, I'm not comfortable saying it's waterproof now, three years later.
Apple doesn't have a foldable device yet, but Samsung does, so it's worth seeing what is currently on the market. As of right now, both the Galaxy Flip 6 and the Galaxy Fold 6 are rated at IP48.
That 4 in the foreign solid object ingress slot means that, when brand new, the Flip and Fold are capable of keeping out things that are larger than 1 millimeter. So safe against larger bugs and small rocks, safe against some sand, but not dustproof.
Sand in your pocket is likely smaller than 1 millimeter. And, with time, it's safe to assume that rating will go down.
Both the Flip and Fold are rated as being waterproof. But again, liquid ingress is highly dependent on the device. And for the Flip and Fold Samsung defines waterproof as being able to sit submerged in roughly 5 feet of fresh, non-moving water for 30 minutes.
Samsung cautions against using the Flip or Fold when they're wet, and instead opting to let it dry out completely before using it again. For its part, Apple says the same thing for the iPhone 16.
I imagine that even a month or two into owning a foldable device, opening and shutting it multiple times a day, that watertight rating decreases to well below a 6.
And of course, water damage isn't covered under warranty. It's the same for iPhone, too, by the way.
While water damage is covered under Apple Care+, it's subject to an additional fee. For an iPhone 16, it's $49 for each of the first two incidents, but I anticipate that would be higher for an iPhone Fold.
Current iPhones are pretty watertight, at least when they're new | Image generated with Microsoft Image Creator
Again, it'd be a pretty sad day to send in your iPhone Fold for repair or replacement just because you accidentally bumped it into the sink or got caught in a rainstorm.
But those are just my personal concerns when it comes to foldable tech. There's also the fact that the iPhone Fold doesn't need to replace an iPhone. It doesn't need to replace iPad, and it won't replace either.
It doesn't need to replace anything. The iPhone Fold, whenever it comes out, will be its own thing.
The iPhone Fold isn't going to replace any of Apple's other devices -- but it isn't going to be designed to
When the Apple Vision Pro came out in 2024, I was astounded at the amount of people who suggested it would somehow replace any other technology.
For the foreseeable future, I anticipate any sort of AR/VR tech is going to be prohibitively expensive. The Apple Vision Pro starts at $3499.
I know that even if I wanted one, which I don't, I couldn't afford one. I have a mortgage. I have educational debt. The Apple Vision Pro is a luxury item.
And, the iPhone Fold is going to be a luxury, too. The first model, yes, but I suspect every subsequent model will still be priced well above the iPhone Pro Max of its generation.
The iPhone Fold isn't going to replace the iPhone
A smartphone, at its core, is pretty utilitarian. Sure, we've crammed a lot into smartphones, but most of the tasks people do on the day-to-day are practical.
Making a phone call or starting up a FaceTime, snapping a picture, sending texts and emails, and browsing the internet. These are the core things that smartphones have been created to do.
And, incidentally, the job market has responded accordingly. There are almost zero jobs where you can get by without having a smartphone.
iPhone 16 & iPhone 16 Plus
This is the society we've created. We may not have flying cars, but we do have Slack.
Even if someone works a minimum-wage job at a fast food chain, most employees are going to be expected to use an app to access employee chat, scheduling requests, pay stubs, etc.
When I worked a barely-above-minimum-wage job at a bookstore, nearly all of my employee-employer interfacing was done through an app. There was, technically, the ability to do it via a website, but the online portal was prone to constant crashing.
I was directly told by management to use the app. Fortunately, I had a smartphone, so it wasn't an issue. However, if I didn't have one, or if my phone were to sustain an unfortunate accident, I would have been expected to replace it immediately.
My partner works at a gym. They're required to use a smartphone to view their schedule and participate in employee chat. There is no option to do this online.
I am fairly positive that if they did not have a smartphone, they would not have that job.
Expecting everyone to pay over a grand for a smartphone is ridiculous. But, frankly, Apple doesn't expect everyone to buy the iPhone Fold. Or the Apple Vision Pro. Or the iPhone Pro and iPhone Pro Max.
That's why the iPhone still exists. Apple is aware that there is a user base that doesn't want -- or can't afford -- to buy luxury products.
Why other people expect certain Apple products to replace its existing lineup is beyond me.
And it's not going to replace the iPad either
Amber a decade ago thought an iPhone Fold would be a great alternative to the iPad. Today, Amber just appreciates the iPad for what it is.
I see a lot of people trying to define what an iPad is by comparing it directly to other Apple products, and I think that does the iPad a disservice. It was never designed to replace the iPhone, nor was it designed to replace a MacBook. It is designed to function as either a standalone device or a supplementary device.
Somehow people seem to forget that the iPad market isn't just full of 20 to 50-year-olds who use it because it has a bigger screen than their iPhone and is a little more portable than their Mac.
I don't even know what percentage of the iPad market that accounts for. When I think iPad, I think of three specific audiences.
The iPad as an educational device
I know it happened a while ago, but I seem to vaguely recall some sort of global event happening in early 2020 that changed everyone's lives on a fundamental level. Whatever it was, it sure seemed to result in a lot of schools obtaining iPads.
Schools have long been a target audience for iPad. Students can use educational apps to help supplement lessons. And it's easier to update an iPad with a new PDF of a textbook than it is to discard outdated physical textbooks.
Students using iPads in elementary school
The average textbook goes out of date every three years. Putting aside the fact that elementary and secondary schools are often left using outdated textbooks for years, or decades in some cases, expecting the school to purchase, store, and then dispose of textbooks seems silly.
The iPad can help alleviate some of that burden -- though thanks to big publishers charging an arm and a leg for digital textbooks, I do understand that it isn't a perfect solution.
But in addition to replacing textbooks, the iPad can help replace the classroom. At least when it's absolutely needed.
I'm pretty critical of remote learning -- call me old fashioned, but I think in-person socialization is critical for young people -- but I also understand that there are times when it is unavoidable.
Thanks to companies like Jamf, schools can outfit their iPads with customized software. This helps students stay safe while using a device and keeps distractions minimal.
It's nice to know, should society come grinding to a halt for an extended time again, at least we've got some options.
I wouldn't give an elementary school student an iPhone fold. Hell, I wouldn't give an elementary school student an iPhone, either.
But, I might be inclined to give them an iPad. If a kid has to have a device, it may as well be one that makes sense for them.
Your grandma (or mom, or auntie) loves the iPad
I love senior citizens. I grew up around a lot of them -- way more than the average child, because of my mom's job. And while the seniors of my youth would probably reject the iPad for being too "new-fangled," today's seniors often have a much warmer opinion of them.
I understand not wanting to use a laptop for basic internet tasks. Reading on a computer screen can be annoying, and also somewhat limiting as to where you can do it.
Image credit: sabinevanerp at Pixabay
And, frankly, you don't need a computer to look at social media.
I also get that even if you get an iPhone Plus, the screen is pretty small -- I hate watching videos on smartphones. And, while I still have decent eyesight, I do find that reading on my iPhone for more than thirty minutes at a time can get pretty rough.
An iPad, however, is a nice middle ground. It's lightweight and, if sufficiently charged, wire-free. You can hold it in your hands as easily as you could hold a book.
There's a reason why seniors like the iPad. Whether for FaceTime or FaceBook, the iPad is an object of convenience.
And, when put in a nice case, it's also sturdy. Certainly a lot more sturdy than a laptop or foldable phone would be, at any rate.
Apple loves artists, and artists love a very flat iPad
Here's my personal favorite thing about the iPad: Apple has crafted a spectacular tool for artists with the iPad and Apple Pencil.
While I have less free time to create art than I used to, I prefer using the iPad over any other digital medium. Procreate is such a powerhouse and even Adobe has acknowledged that the iPad is a great place to get work done.
And, thanks to Apple's ability to discern a market, it's aware that the iPad, regardless of line, is a useful tool for artists of all abilities.
Tattoo artists, for example, love the iPad. Both of my tattoos, done by two incredible artists, were designed in Procreate on the iPad Air.
Tattoo design? There's an app for that.
Animators love the iPad, now, too. Procreate Dreams, while still new, has been used to make some incredible animations, such as this one by Aaron Blaise.
An iPhone Fold could, theoretically, similarly work for an artist. Yet, I suspect it isn't going to be the powerhouse that many professional artists are going to want.
Additionally, artists have already expressed quite a bit of concern over the potential effects of any creases that could appear. I know that I'd be devastated if the tool I used for my job suddenly became less effective because of an option that I didn't necessarily need in the first place.
An iPad Fold won't replace an iPad, either, for the record
An iPad Fold might be an exciting prospect. Maybe it would make the iPad more portable, make it easier to use in a laptop-like mode, or result in truly massive iPads that could be docked like multi-screen displays.
Sure, that's possible, but I think that's putting the cart before the horse. In fact, I think the cart might be a pile of lumber and the horse is still wet behind the ears.
Apple's going to release a foldable iPhone. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.
The iPhone Fold development process is already teaching Apple a lot about foldable tech as a whole. And, it's probably going to teach a lot of people a lot of things about foldable tech after it ships.
We'll learn how durable it is, who uses it, what it's used for, and how it's used. And once Apple has nailed it down as an iPhone, they may decide to take on a foldable iPad.
Yeah, the iPad Fold looks pretty slick, at least until you see the price tag.Yeah, the iPad Fold looks pretty slick, at least until you see the price tag.
I think Apple has different headway to make on the iPad. And I think those developments have nothing to do with whether or not it is foldable.
And, personally, I would love it if Apple split the iPad into two categories. A base-level iPad that runs iPadOS and is geared towards current iPad, iPad mini, and iPad Air users, and a Pro-level iPad that runs a streamlined version of macOS.
I'd still argue, though, that a foldable iPad won't replace a standard, fixed iPad. The same way that the iPhone Fold won't kill off the fixed iPhone. And I'm positive that an iPad, no matter how foldy it may be, won't replace Mac, either.
Besides -- could you imagine how expensive a foldable iPad would be? We're already hearing reports that the iPhone Fold could cost more than the M4 Max Mac Studio -- which is about $2,300.
If that winds up being the case, I shudder to think what an iPad Fold would cost. Or a folding all-screen MacBook Pro.
A fourth audience
As I was writing this, I was reminded that there's an oft-overlooked audience for tablets. And I do not want to overlook them, especially because Apple hasn't.
The iPad is an amazing disability aid. Apple has put a lot of time and effort into making its products accessible to everyone, and that seems to go doubly for the iPad.
I don't have anyone in my personal life who uses an iPad as a disability aid, but there are countless stories, including some from AppleInsider staffers, that show the merits of the little tablet-that-could.
An iPhone fold, while pretty cool, would likely not meet the needs of those who have significant mobility-based limitations. At the very least, I'm fairly certain the folding mechanism wouldn't add anything to the experience, other than an inflated price tag in a challenging economic environment for consumers in Apple's two largest markets -- the US and China.
The iPhone Fold will be widely loved by its audience
Just because I don't want the iPhone Fold doesn't mean that it'll flop. I suspect that there is a substantial audience for the iPhone fold, and I'm glad that they'll get use out of what will be a pretty neat device.
Render of a possible iPhone fold
However, assuming that the iPhone Fold is a "killer" of any device is silly. The predictions that the iPad would kill the Mac or iPhone were wrong, and every single prediction that any given device by any other manufacturer would unseat the iPhone have been bafflingly off-base for the last 15 years.
The iPhone Fold should be celebrated for what it is going to be. It is going to be a new kind of device that will see plenty of love from those who want it for exactly what it is.
A foldable iPhone.
Read on AppleInsider
Comments
So, yup. They are not replacing any of the current models. The folding display models, if they ship, is really about providing an option for monied technology enthusiasts. The only question is whether Apple can make profits from selling like 100k to 1m a year. The top 5% of the market is typically the most profitable.
I appreciate your confidence, but I don't see what it's based on. For the reasons you've stated as well as some others, I don't think it's anything Apple would want to put their name on. Other than the novelty of it (which will wear off quickly), it doesn't seem like it would serve any particular purpose, and certainly not any purpose that would warrant the added cost along with heightened risk for wear and breakage. This doesn't fit Apple's modus operandi.
Vision Pro is also an expensive niche product, but it's actually something profoundly different from anything else in Apple's line-up. You can do things with it that you can't do with other Apple devices. You're right that a folding iPhone wouldn't replace either the iPad or the regular iPhone, but that's not because it does something fundamentally different, but rather because it wouldn't be as good as an actual iPad, and wouldn't do anything that you can't already do with an iPhone, other than fold open and closed.
So the inevitability you describe seems only based on things other prognosticators keep insisting on, and as we all know, those guys are not nearly as "oft correct" as they'd like us to believe. I think there probably will be a foldable iPad, because that serves a purpose. It makes a large-screen iPad more portable, and does so with few of the compromises that would be inherent in a folding iPhone.
I would suggest a padded Samurai suit.
signed,
#NeverBrokeMyPhoneEver
Everything is measured by how well pundits can type while out and about.