But you gave the answer yourself: Sony will create a great amount of hype for PSPortable and developers will jump in.
But I don't think developers will jump in. In fact, I think the exact opposite will be true. Developing for a new system will be very tough. It's a very expensive investment in terms of new development kits, new data storage equipment, etc.
You are also looking at 18 months down the road in terms of a system launch. That's 18 months for Nintendo to either develop a new handheld system, or gain an even stronger hold of the current market.
We'll probably see a GBA SP price drop before any Sony handheld launch, if not more. With the Game Boy Player launch, there will be an even larger base for the Game Boy titles.
So unless Sony is going to provide a good experience for developers (which they failed to do with the Playstation and PS2), you aren't going to see them beating each other up to develop for the system.
As for my PS1 vs PSP comparison, my point is that most people will find little reason to buy the system if all of the games are ports of titles they can buy for little money for their PS2 (or older PS1). Also, with a 4.5 inch screen, it will be interesting to see how portable this system really is. It's not going to fit in your pocket, that's for sure. Heck, you people complained about carrying around the Newton because it wouldn't fit in your pocket. How willing are people going to be to carry around a PSP?
I think that Game Boy Advance isn't going to go away any time soon unless Nintendo replaces it. They've never lost a battle in the handheld market and there is only room for one real device. Unless ths PSP is a portable PS2, I doubt it will take over the market.
We'll probably see a GBA SP price drop before any Sony handheld launch, if not more. With the Game Boy Player launch, there will be an even larger base for the Game Boy titles.
So unless Sony is going to provide a good experience for developers (which they failed to do with the Playstation and PS2), you aren't going to see them beating each other up to develop for the system.
Also, with a 4.5 inch screen, it will be interesting to see how portable this system really is.
I think that Game Boy Advance isn't going to go away any time soon unless Nintendo replaces it. They've never lost a battle in the handheld market and there is only room for one real device. Unless ths PSP is a portable PS2, I doubt it will take over the market.
Well you're right on that. Nintendo will probably have the GBA SP down to $70 by the time PSP comes out. We'll probably have a new Gameboy system by then.
But even if Sony just re-releases PSOne games on PSP plus new ones people will buy it. That's what Nintendo has been doing. They re-release SNES games on GBA plus new ones.
So maybe the PSP will be targeted to a whole different audience after all. It will come with a USB 2.0 port and a memory stick port so It may be targeted toward adult gamers who need something more advanced than GBA.
However, I could see it taking away part of the GBA audience, as there are some adults out there that play the GBA, me included. What really frustrates me is that the quality of GBA games is that of SNES and Genesis games. Just thinking about playing PSOne caliber games on the go makes me get all excited about it.
Then there's the price. If Sony is smart it shouldn't be placed above $199, and even at that price it's very pricey, but I think they can pull it off. Who knows, maybe by late 2004 it won't seem such an expensive piece of hardware and could give GBA (or whatever iteration it is on) a run for its money.
The Sony machine is going to play movies. You'll now have a portable movie player (recorder?) for a reasonable price.
The machine is going to be the bridge from the PS2 to the PS3. There will be no way this machine isn't tied into future functions of the PS3 and some current PS2 functions.
Third party developers will do whatever they have to to make games for a Sony system.
Nintendo is nearly dead. It's going to take a miracle, like buying Sega, to save them. That might only delay it. They'll survive, but only as a gamemaker. It's because the industry knows they don't have the funds to compete, not because they're not good enough. Everyone knows that MS & Sony can outspend them 100 or 10 to 1. It's just the facts.
So this FUD is going to squeeze them off.
Sega deserved to die. Nintendo deserves to die. Neither MS nor Sony deserve to succeed them, but that's what will happen.
Hardly any one will pay $199 for a handheld gaming system. Heck, I find it hard to pay $199 for a home console system!
Check the facts though, Sega is by no means dead. In fact, they are talking about a new console for the next generation. Bad business move? Who knows? But Yuji Naka was talking about it. A launch maybe a year or two after the other new consoles might be possible. They have been posting profits, so I don't see them going anywhere.
Do I see Nintendo buying Sega? Not really. Just because they both worked on F-Zero doesn't mean that they are going to merge. Also, Sega just put down a merger with Sammy in Japan, and are denying reports about merging with Namco. They refused a buyout offer by Microsoft as well a few years ago.
As for Nintendo, the GameCube makes a profit and the Game Boy makes a profit. What's the issue here? It sounds like people just don't want to buy 3 consoles so they hope Nintendo will go 3rd party. Face it guys, the market might be tough but Nintendo has been posting good profits despite the competition. Zelda and Metroid didn't sell as well as they had hoped, but it doesn't mean the company is going to fold.
Ok, onto PSP games.
If Sony is just going to port PS1 games, it's not going to work out very well. I can go into a store and buy PS1 games for less than $10 and play them on my PS2. Unless I need to have the game portable, it's not worth buying it for $30-$50 on a cartridge.
The difference between that and the GBA is that ports from the GBA are from the NES, Master System, SNES, Genesis, and Saturn.
There seem to be many people who had the NES, SNES, and Genesis that loved the games on the console but had the blinking light problem with the NES and SNES or a Genesis where the controller pins bent beyond repair. The difference between porting PS1 games and NES games is that you can go out and buy a PS1 or PS2 and have no issue playing those games. You can't go out and buy a system that plays NES, SNES, or Genesis.
Also look at the ages of the consoles. People will buy Mario 3 port for the GBA for the few new levels and the nostalgia, especially if they can't pick it up and play it right now. Younger kids get to pick the game up for the first time. Let's face it, kids need good side scrollers.
But with PS1 ports, you can just pop the game in your PS2 and play it. There's no reason to buy it for the PSP.
But we're talking about a system 18 months out. Who knows what could happen from now until then? But here's what I think is clear: Nintendo isn't doomed from this device, especially not now here in May 2003.
considering that 80% of the people i know who download ROM's are doing it for Nintendo games, i'd say there's a lot of nostalgia out there. and they're willing to pay for the games if/when they can buy them.
fact is, when it comes right down to it, Nintendo multiplayer games are the most fun.
Sony was very clear that the system was not for PS1 ports. Will they happen? Probably, but that's no different than the fact that I can buy Ms. Pacman for the GBA. The system is going to be a **** of a lot more powerful than a PS1 though. That's the point of the system.
It's going to have more support than the GameCube. It's going to be a leap past the GBA. The GBA is probably almost perfect for a portable game system, but the Sony machine will still 'win out' in the long run.
There's never been a serious challenger to the GameBoy, not since the Lynx. And the only failure of that system was a lack of third party games. The PSP is not going to be hampered by the same problem.
Legacy games on the GBA don't mean crap. Backwards compatibility is more of a hinderance now than anything else. There's hardly any market for an old GameBoy color game. Portable games are about disposable games. A quick fix.
Hardly any one will pay $199 for a handheld gaming system. Heck, I find it hard to pay $199 for a home console system!
Also look at the ages of the consoles. People will buy Mario 3 port for the GBA for the few new levels and the nostalgia, especially if they can't pick it up and play it right now. Younger kids get to pick the game up for the first time. Let's face it, kids need good side scrollers.
Well, people paid $399 for the PlayStation 1 back when it was released... then people paid crazy amounts of money ($600) for PS2 when it first hit America when retail price was like $299. If Sony systems have sold so well, even with console competition, I don't see why they won't be able to sell it at $199. People will run and buy it, just like with PS1 and PS2.
I'd hate to see Nintendo go the Sega way. But it's bound to happen and this is what will trigger it.
Like I said, Nintendo is posting a PROFIT on hardware sales. This is something that Sega never did with the Dreamcast. Sega started selling the Dreamcast at a loss from day one and people just didn't buy enough games per system to make up that loss. The other problem was that games had too high a production cost meaning that some games actually lost money in the end. Nintendo isn't having this problem.
Sega lost money through generations of systems, it wasn't an overnight problem with the Dreamcast.
They lost the cash they made with the Genesis on such mistakes as:
Sega CD
32x
Game Gear
Nomad
Saturn (Total Money Pit)
Sega's first mistakes were releasing the Sega CD and 32x. Making a system another system's addon was just a bad idea from the start. Also the lack of any games for either system doomed them both from the start. Then their next mistake was the Saturn. The Saturn was sold for a huge loss to begin with in North America, and Sony came out and still beat them on price. Not to mention that the Saturn was meant to be the 'ultimate 2D system'. 3D support was thrown in hastily at the end of the system's development but it was way too late to compete with the PS1.
So despite all of that, Sega pushed forward with the Dreamcast but had already alienated it's fan base with all of their other systems and people didn't want to take a chance with their money. So they introduced price cut after price cut until they were finally losing so much money on hardware and games that they had no other choice but to leave the market.
Now let's look at Nintendo and their disasters. The NES made money, the SNES made money, all of the Game Boys made money, the N64 made money, the GCN makes money, licensing like Pokemon and Kirby make craploads of money, and those trading cards they sell with the e-Reader make money.
I don't see any comparison here between Nintendo and Sega. Yes, the GameCube isn't doing as well as it could be, put that doesn't mean it isn't making money. Yes, the Game Boy does make Nintendo tons of money beyond the GameCube, but a competitor to the market 18 months from now doesn't mean they are going to push the panic button, even if it is Sony entering the market.
Yes, Microsoft and Sony both have tons of cash which they can put into the gaming market, but it's only up until a certain point. Both companies eventually have to answer to stockholders as gaming is not their main business. Nintendo, on the other hand, has all of it's money to focus on their gaming business.
I have no idea why people are saying that Nintendo should get out of the console race while they are turning a profit. It's crazy. Yes, they don't have many online games, and yes, they seem to be missing the boat on that market. But besides that, their business plan has been pretty good. Teaming with companies on games to get exclusives is a good strategy, especially when you get Link in Soul Calibur 2, etc. The only thing I can think of is that people either don't like the games they are putting out or they don't own a GameCube and want to buy the games for whatever other system they own.
When Nintendo starts making bad decisions and losing money like Sega, then I'll start crying the doom of Nintendo. That hasn't happened yet. But in regards to their next home console they need to follow their GameBoy upgrade model and make it backwards compatible. They made a good decision about using the mini DVD media for games. It holds plenty of memory storage, and they can upgrade to a larger size disk for a future console and still play the older smaller media. Since they make a profit on the actual console sales, it would make sense to ensure backwards compatibility.
Like I said, Nintendo is posting a PROFIT on hardware sales.
A profit on hardware sales doesn't mean much. MicroSoft loses money on hardware sales but their marketshare and 3rd party support is better. What that means in the long run is that Nintendo is going to be squeezed.
Three systems is too much for 3rd party development to support. Nintendo could be making $98 profit on each system, but if only 50 people buy it the games will dry up.
the latest headbending "circle is now complete, young jedi" twist, to my mind,
is that the card-reader attachment for the new portable system reads games in from a series of "punch cards" with barcoded dots printed on the cards themselves.
consequences?
coding efficiency to be a rediscovered priority, since a game needs to "fit" on few cards
interchangeable cards act as mods/hacks for "stock" games
(the equivalent of EPROM burners/writers for custom config will come soon)
collectible mods become frenzied like Pokemon and other trading cards
Nintendo returns to its roots (can die happy)
data entry returns to its roots (now where?)
anybody else see the TV special recently called "GameHeadz" chronicling the history of the industry?
Three systems is too much for 3rd party development to support. Nintendo could be making $98 profit on each system, but if only 50 people buy it the games will dry up.
Despite the fact that millions of GameCubes have already been sold, people still think that the market can't support 3 consoles. It baffles me. Seriously, the market is definitely large enough to support all 3 in the home console market.
If the hardware is making money and the software is making money (for the most part), then why is there a problem? Is it because people can't buy the GameCube and just the GameCube that is the problem?
Since that's the case, the Xbox must be doomed in the long run too despite Microsoft's vast cash resources because people can't just own an Xbox either, right?
I was wrong earlier when I said Nintendo hasn't screwed up big time yet. In fact, they did screw up major league when they were still making the SNES. At the time that Sega put out the Sega CD, Nintendo contacted Sony to make a CD based game console to compete with it.
When the Sega CD crashed and burned (and proved ridiculously easy to pirate), Nintendo told Sony they no longer wanted the system. Sony put a little more R&D into the device and it became the Playstation. Very ironic if you ask me.
Also, about the e-Reader comment, that's just crazy. Right now, Nintendo is the only company coming out with anything for the e-Reader. They have the classic NES games, the Animal Crossing cards, and the Game & Watch cards. I think they might have the Pokemon stuff later in the year which will mean they will sell millions more GBAs and GameCubes along with those cards if they market it right. Still don't know what kids see in the stuff but whatever.
Nintendo isn't going anywhere, and people will keep buying games for the system. I still don't know why people think they are about to 'die out'.
Nintendo isn't going anywhere, and people will keep buying games for the system. I still don't know why people think they are about to 'die out'.
I don't think they will 'die out', but eventually stockholders will probably wonder why they invest lots of R&D & cash in new systems when the new Metroid game would sell 10 times as much if it were available for a competing system. It's just a balance. If Sega survives as a third party company, that will/could/should entice Nintendo.
Leave the hardware to hardware companies. Leave the games to Nintendo.
Now let's look at Nintendo and their disasters. The NES made money, the SNES made money, all of the Game Boys made money, the N64 made money, the GCN makes money, licensing like Pokemon and Kirby make craploads of money, and those trading cards they sell with the e-Reader make money.
I don't see any comparison here between Nintendo and Sega. Yes, the GameCube isn't doing as well as it could be, put that doesn't mean it isn't making money. Yes, the Game Boy does make Nintendo tons of money beyond the GameCube, but a competitor to the market 18 months from now doesn't mean they are going to push the panic button, even if it is Sony entering the market.
I have no idea why people are saying that Nintendo should get out of the console race while they are turning a profit. It's crazy.
Well don't speak as if Nintendo doesn't know disasters. Virtual Boy anyone? Over priced, few games, hardly portable. Nintendo can screw up at times too. It's not just Sega.
I do see some comparisons with Nintendo and Sega. While not evident right now, they are being cornered slowly, little by little like Sega was...
MS and Sony will end up making Nintendo become the Apple of video games. Small niche market, great quality, constant innovators... it's happening.
While it doesn't mean they should get out of the console race, I do think they might cook something up in time for PSP and it can't be another minor GBA update. SNES ports can only get you so far for a limited amount of time. I'm talking something neat like Mario64 to go. That'd rock.
Since that's the case, the Xbox must be doomed in the long run too despite Microsoft's vast cash resources because people can't just own an Xbox either, right?
Nintendo isn't going anywhere, and people will keep buying games for the system. I still don't know why people think they are about to 'die out'.
Well Bill Gates won't rest until everyone has an Xbox. He'll bundle one with every WinXP license.
It'd be so much better if big N just published games for the two leading consoles though (PS2 and Xbox) and then maybe people could save on hardware and just select one and have more $$$ for games.
It's really frustrating realizing I need to buy memory cards for my GC, then controllers for my Xbox, then for the GC, etc etc. I've kinda given up on GC. Xbox just looks better, no need for mem cards, worse controller but oh well it's nice. I only keep it cos I'm waiting for Mario Kart Double Dash.
IF Nintendo ever gets pushed out of the console market, they won't pull a pansy Sega move of going only software. It's not how they work. It's all or nothing. Then we'll be left with lame Playstation and Xbox caliber games. Basically shoot em ups and fantasy anime. Whoopee.
Joe Public will buy one, and a second when it's down to $79.
I still say that ultimately Nintendo will have to answer the question of overall revenue. Profits might be good, but the revenue stream is too small compared to what's available. This is the second generation in a row where they've been behind. They probably can't afford a third. So far they've floated along because of the Game Boy. That's in jeopardy now.
If the PSP was out today with 20 games and were selling like hot cakes, then yes, I'd say they might be in some trouble.
But we're talking about late 2004 at the earliest for such a device, and that's probably a Japanese launch.
Also, Sega wasn't chipped away at little by little, they had very little to show for the consoles between the Genesis and Dreamcast, as I've said before. Nintendo hasn't faced the same problem that Sega has, which was disaster after disaster for years before being driven out right when they had an awesome console.
Maybe the PSP will do well in 2004/2005, but that's a long time away. Meanwhile, the GBA is 2nd in sales in all consoles, some weeks beating out PS2 sales. The question is how saturated the market will be when the PSP does launch. It will be interesting to see.
Comments
But you gave the answer yourself: Sony will create a great amount of hype for PSPortable and developers will jump in.
But I don't think developers will jump in. In fact, I think the exact opposite will be true. Developing for a new system will be very tough. It's a very expensive investment in terms of new development kits, new data storage equipment, etc.
You are also looking at 18 months down the road in terms of a system launch. That's 18 months for Nintendo to either develop a new handheld system, or gain an even stronger hold of the current market.
We'll probably see a GBA SP price drop before any Sony handheld launch, if not more. With the Game Boy Player launch, there will be an even larger base for the Game Boy titles.
So unless Sony is going to provide a good experience for developers (which they failed to do with the Playstation and PS2), you aren't going to see them beating each other up to develop for the system.
As for my PS1 vs PSP comparison, my point is that most people will find little reason to buy the system if all of the games are ports of titles they can buy for little money for their PS2 (or older PS1). Also, with a 4.5 inch screen, it will be interesting to see how portable this system really is. It's not going to fit in your pocket, that's for sure. Heck, you people complained about carrying around the Newton because it wouldn't fit in your pocket. How willing are people going to be to carry around a PSP?
I think that Game Boy Advance isn't going to go away any time soon unless Nintendo replaces it. They've never lost a battle in the handheld market and there is only room for one real device. Unless ths PSP is a portable PS2, I doubt it will take over the market.
Originally posted by Fran441
We'll probably see a GBA SP price drop before any Sony handheld launch, if not more. With the Game Boy Player launch, there will be an even larger base for the Game Boy titles.
So unless Sony is going to provide a good experience for developers (which they failed to do with the Playstation and PS2), you aren't going to see them beating each other up to develop for the system.
Also, with a 4.5 inch screen, it will be interesting to see how portable this system really is.
I think that Game Boy Advance isn't going to go away any time soon unless Nintendo replaces it. They've never lost a battle in the handheld market and there is only room for one real device. Unless ths PSP is a portable PS2, I doubt it will take over the market.
Well you're right on that. Nintendo will probably have the GBA SP down to $70 by the time PSP comes out. We'll probably have a new Gameboy system by then.
But even if Sony just re-releases PSOne games on PSP plus new ones people will buy it. That's what Nintendo has been doing. They re-release SNES games on GBA plus new ones.
So maybe the PSP will be targeted to a whole different audience after all. It will come with a USB 2.0 port and a memory stick port so It may be targeted toward adult gamers who need something more advanced than GBA.
However, I could see it taking away part of the GBA audience, as there are some adults out there that play the GBA, me included. What really frustrates me is that the quality of GBA games is that of SNES and Genesis games. Just thinking about playing PSOne caliber games on the go makes me get all excited about it.
Then there's the price. If Sony is smart it shouldn't be placed above $199, and even at that price it's very pricey, but I think they can pull it off. Who knows, maybe by late 2004 it won't seem such an expensive piece of hardware and could give GBA (or whatever iteration it is on) a run for its money.
The machine is going to be the bridge from the PS2 to the PS3. There will be no way this machine isn't tied into future functions of the PS3 and some current PS2 functions.
Third party developers will do whatever they have to to make games for a Sony system.
Nintendo is nearly dead. It's going to take a miracle, like buying Sega, to save them. That might only delay it. They'll survive, but only as a gamemaker. It's because the industry knows they don't have the funds to compete, not because they're not good enough. Everyone knows that MS & Sony can outspend them 100 or 10 to 1. It's just the facts.
So this FUD is going to squeeze them off.
Sega deserved to die. Nintendo deserves to die. Neither MS nor Sony deserve to succeed them, but that's what will happen.
Check the facts though, Sega is by no means dead. In fact, they are talking about a new console for the next generation. Bad business move? Who knows? But Yuji Naka was talking about it. A launch maybe a year or two after the other new consoles might be possible. They have been posting profits, so I don't see them going anywhere.
Do I see Nintendo buying Sega? Not really. Just because they both worked on F-Zero doesn't mean that they are going to merge. Also, Sega just put down a merger with Sammy in Japan, and are denying reports about merging with Namco. They refused a buyout offer by Microsoft as well a few years ago.
As for Nintendo, the GameCube makes a profit and the Game Boy makes a profit. What's the issue here? It sounds like people just don't want to buy 3 consoles so they hope Nintendo will go 3rd party. Face it guys, the market might be tough but Nintendo has been posting good profits despite the competition. Zelda and Metroid didn't sell as well as they had hoped, but it doesn't mean the company is going to fold.
Ok, onto PSP games.
If Sony is just going to port PS1 games, it's not going to work out very well. I can go into a store and buy PS1 games for less than $10 and play them on my PS2. Unless I need to have the game portable, it's not worth buying it for $30-$50 on a cartridge.
The difference between that and the GBA is that ports from the GBA are from the NES, Master System, SNES, Genesis, and Saturn.
There seem to be many people who had the NES, SNES, and Genesis that loved the games on the console but had the blinking light problem with the NES and SNES or a Genesis where the controller pins bent beyond repair. The difference between porting PS1 games and NES games is that you can go out and buy a PS1 or PS2 and have no issue playing those games. You can't go out and buy a system that plays NES, SNES, or Genesis.
Also look at the ages of the consoles. People will buy Mario 3 port for the GBA for the few new levels and the nostalgia, especially if they can't pick it up and play it right now. Younger kids get to pick the game up for the first time. Let's face it, kids need good side scrollers.
But with PS1 ports, you can just pop the game in your PS2 and play it. There's no reason to buy it for the PSP.
But we're talking about a system 18 months out. Who knows what could happen from now until then? But here's what I think is clear: Nintendo isn't doomed from this device, especially not now here in May 2003.
fact is, when it comes right down to it, Nintendo multiplayer games are the most fun.
It's going to have more support than the GameCube. It's going to be a leap past the GBA. The GBA is probably almost perfect for a portable game system, but the Sony machine will still 'win out' in the long run.
There's never been a serious challenger to the GameBoy, not since the Lynx. And the only failure of that system was a lack of third party games. The PSP is not going to be hampered by the same problem.
Legacy games on the GBA don't mean crap. Backwards compatibility is more of a hinderance now than anything else. There's hardly any market for an old GameBoy color game. Portable games are about disposable games. A quick fix.
Originally posted by Fran441
Hardly any one will pay $199 for a handheld gaming system. Heck, I find it hard to pay $199 for a home console system!
Also look at the ages of the consoles. People will buy Mario 3 port for the GBA for the few new levels and the nostalgia, especially if they can't pick it up and play it right now. Younger kids get to pick the game up for the first time. Let's face it, kids need good side scrollers.
Well, people paid $399 for the PlayStation 1 back when it was released... then people paid crazy amounts of money ($600) for PS2 when it first hit America when retail price was like $299. If Sony systems have sold so well, even with console competition, I don't see why they won't be able to sell it at $199. People will run and buy it, just like with PS1 and PS2.
I'd hate to see Nintendo go the Sega way. But it's bound to happen and this is what will trigger it.
Like I said, Nintendo is posting a PROFIT on hardware sales. This is something that Sega never did with the Dreamcast. Sega started selling the Dreamcast at a loss from day one and people just didn't buy enough games per system to make up that loss. The other problem was that games had too high a production cost meaning that some games actually lost money in the end. Nintendo isn't having this problem.
Sega lost money through generations of systems, it wasn't an overnight problem with the Dreamcast.
They lost the cash they made with the Genesis on such mistakes as:
Sega CD
32x
Game Gear
Nomad
Saturn (Total Money Pit)
Sega's first mistakes were releasing the Sega CD and 32x. Making a system another system's addon was just a bad idea from the start. Also the lack of any games for either system doomed them both from the start. Then their next mistake was the Saturn. The Saturn was sold for a huge loss to begin with in North America, and Sony came out and still beat them on price. Not to mention that the Saturn was meant to be the 'ultimate 2D system'. 3D support was thrown in hastily at the end of the system's development but it was way too late to compete with the PS1.
So despite all of that, Sega pushed forward with the Dreamcast but had already alienated it's fan base with all of their other systems and people didn't want to take a chance with their money. So they introduced price cut after price cut until they were finally losing so much money on hardware and games that they had no other choice but to leave the market.
Now let's look at Nintendo and their disasters. The NES made money, the SNES made money, all of the Game Boys made money, the N64 made money, the GCN makes money, licensing like Pokemon and Kirby make craploads of money, and those trading cards they sell with the e-Reader make money.
I don't see any comparison here between Nintendo and Sega. Yes, the GameCube isn't doing as well as it could be, put that doesn't mean it isn't making money. Yes, the Game Boy does make Nintendo tons of money beyond the GameCube, but a competitor to the market 18 months from now doesn't mean they are going to push the panic button, even if it is Sony entering the market.
Yes, Microsoft and Sony both have tons of cash which they can put into the gaming market, but it's only up until a certain point. Both companies eventually have to answer to stockholders as gaming is not their main business. Nintendo, on the other hand, has all of it's money to focus on their gaming business.
I have no idea why people are saying that Nintendo should get out of the console race while they are turning a profit. It's crazy. Yes, they don't have many online games, and yes, they seem to be missing the boat on that market. But besides that, their business plan has been pretty good. Teaming with companies on games to get exclusives is a good strategy, especially when you get Link in Soul Calibur 2, etc. The only thing I can think of is that people either don't like the games they are putting out or they don't own a GameCube and want to buy the games for whatever other system they own.
Originally posted by Fran441
Like I said, Nintendo is posting a PROFIT on hardware sales.
A profit on hardware sales doesn't mean much. MicroSoft loses money on hardware sales but their marketshare and 3rd party support is better. What that means in the long run is that Nintendo is going to be squeezed.
Three systems is too much for 3rd party development to support. Nintendo could be making $98 profit on each system, but if only 50 people buy it the games will dry up.
the latest headbending "circle is now complete, young jedi" twist, to my mind,
is that the card-reader attachment for the new portable system reads games in from a series of "punch cards" with barcoded dots printed on the cards themselves.
consequences?
- coding efficiency to be a rediscovered priority, since a game needs to "fit" on few cards
- interchangeable cards act as mods/hacks for "stock" games
- collectible mods become frenzied like Pokemon and other trading cards
- Nintendo returns to its roots (can die happy)
- data entry returns to its roots (now where?)
anybody else see the TV special recently called "GameHeadz" chronicling the history of the industry?(the equivalent of EPROM burners/writers for custom config will come soon)
Three systems is too much for 3rd party development to support. Nintendo could be making $98 profit on each system, but if only 50 people buy it the games will dry up.
Despite the fact that millions of GameCubes have already been sold, people still think that the market can't support 3 consoles. It baffles me. Seriously, the market is definitely large enough to support all 3 in the home console market.
If the hardware is making money and the software is making money (for the most part), then why is there a problem? Is it because people can't buy the GameCube and just the GameCube that is the problem?
Since that's the case, the Xbox must be doomed in the long run too despite Microsoft's vast cash resources because people can't just own an Xbox either, right?
I was wrong earlier when I said Nintendo hasn't screwed up big time yet. In fact, they did screw up major league when they were still making the SNES. At the time that Sega put out the Sega CD, Nintendo contacted Sony to make a CD based game console to compete with it.
When the Sega CD crashed and burned (and proved ridiculously easy to pirate), Nintendo told Sony they no longer wanted the system. Sony put a little more R&D into the device and it became the Playstation. Very ironic if you ask me.
Also, about the e-Reader comment, that's just crazy. Right now, Nintendo is the only company coming out with anything for the e-Reader. They have the classic NES games, the Animal Crossing cards, and the Game & Watch cards. I think they might have the Pokemon stuff later in the year which will mean they will sell millions more GBAs and GameCubes along with those cards if they market it right. Still don't know what kids see in the stuff but whatever.
Nintendo isn't going anywhere, and people will keep buying games for the system. I still don't know why people think they are about to 'die out'.
Originally posted by Fran441
Nintendo isn't going anywhere, and people will keep buying games for the system. I still don't know why people think they are about to 'die out'.
I don't think they will 'die out', but eventually stockholders will probably wonder why they invest lots of R&D & cash in new systems when the new Metroid game would sell 10 times as much if it were available for a competing system. It's just a balance. If Sega survives as a third party company, that will/could/should entice Nintendo.
Leave the hardware to hardware companies. Leave the games to Nintendo.
Originally posted by Fran441
Now let's look at Nintendo and their disasters. The NES made money, the SNES made money, all of the Game Boys made money, the N64 made money, the GCN makes money, licensing like Pokemon and Kirby make craploads of money, and those trading cards they sell with the e-Reader make money.
I don't see any comparison here between Nintendo and Sega. Yes, the GameCube isn't doing as well as it could be, put that doesn't mean it isn't making money. Yes, the Game Boy does make Nintendo tons of money beyond the GameCube, but a competitor to the market 18 months from now doesn't mean they are going to push the panic button, even if it is Sony entering the market.
I have no idea why people are saying that Nintendo should get out of the console race while they are turning a profit. It's crazy.
Well don't speak as if Nintendo doesn't know disasters. Virtual Boy anyone? Over priced, few games, hardly portable. Nintendo can screw up at times too. It's not just Sega.
I do see some comparisons with Nintendo and Sega. While not evident right now, they are being cornered slowly, little by little like Sega was...
MS and Sony will end up making Nintendo become the Apple of video games. Small niche market, great quality, constant innovators... it's happening.
While it doesn't mean they should get out of the console race, I do think they might cook something up in time for PSP and it can't be another minor GBA update. SNES ports can only get you so far for a limited amount of time. I'm talking something neat like Mario64 to go. That'd rock.
Originally posted by Fran441
Since that's the case, the Xbox must be doomed in the long run too despite Microsoft's vast cash resources because people can't just own an Xbox either, right?
Nintendo isn't going anywhere, and people will keep buying games for the system. I still don't know why people think they are about to 'die out'.
Well Bill Gates won't rest until everyone has an Xbox. He'll bundle one with every WinXP license.
It'd be so much better if big N just published games for the two leading consoles though (PS2 and Xbox) and then maybe people could save on hardware and just select one and have more $$$ for games.
It's really frustrating realizing I need to buy memory cards for my GC, then controllers for my Xbox, then for the GC, etc etc. I've kinda given up on GC. Xbox just looks better, no need for mem cards, worse controller but oh well it's nice. I only keep it cos I'm waiting for Mario Kart Double Dash.
I don't think this is like apple/microsoft/intel but more like ford/chevy/toyota.
Joe Public will buy one, and a second when it's down to $79.
I still say that ultimately Nintendo will have to answer the question of overall revenue. Profits might be good, but the revenue stream is too small compared to what's available. This is the second generation in a row where they've been behind. They probably can't afford a third. So far they've floated along because of the Game Boy. That's in jeopardy now.
But we're talking about late 2004 at the earliest for such a device, and that's probably a Japanese launch.
Also, Sega wasn't chipped away at little by little, they had very little to show for the consoles between the Genesis and Dreamcast, as I've said before. Nintendo hasn't faced the same problem that Sega has, which was disaster after disaster for years before being driven out right when they had an awesome console.
Maybe the PSP will do well in 2004/2005, but that's a long time away. Meanwhile, the GBA is 2nd in sales in all consoles, some weeks beating out PS2 sales. The question is how saturated the market will be when the PSP does launch. It will be interesting to see.