Where is Iraq one year from now?

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Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
So lets see how good we are in predicting.



Where is Iraq one year from not? Cast your votes.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 27
    scottscott Posts: 7,431member
    Not enough options there.
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  • Reply 2 of 27
    I agree with Scott for once. This should not be limited to poll options.



    Although I'm not sure we should worry about details like politics and human rights when there are more important things to do like retraining the Iraqi army so that we can use them as a proxy to topple the Iranians.
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  • Reply 3 of 27
    ghost_user_nameghost_user_name Posts: 22,667member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Scott

    Not enough options there.



    What do you need?
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  • Reply 4 of 27
    billybobskybillybobsky Posts: 1,914member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Anders the White

    One year from not. Someone kick me.





    KICK KICK KICK...



    damn... we should have a weekly scapegoat for our troubles...



    and the appleinsiderousiderites led the goat laden with the ills that had befallen their community to the cliff edge and (barring any unforseen protests by the animal lovers in AO)pushed gentley sending their troubles to a place unseen...
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  • Reply 5 of 27
    You cannot empirically disprove my hypothesis that the goat was wearing a parachute.
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  • Reply 6 of 27
    billybobskybillybobsky Posts: 1,914member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by ColanderOfDeath

    You cannot empirically disprove my hypothesis that the goat was wearing a parachute.



    *dons jet pack, grabs parachuted-goat, and leaves thread*
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  • Reply 7 of 27
    bungebunge Posts: 7,329member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Scott

    Not enough options there.



    I think that's what the "Post Reply" button is for....
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  • Reply 8 of 27
    giantgiant Posts: 6,041member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by bunge

    I think that's what the "Post Reply" button is for....



    Don't confuse him
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  • Reply 9 of 27
    shetlineshetline Posts: 4,695member
    Where is Iraq one year from now? West of Iran, South of Turkey, East of Syria... just where we left it.
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  • Reply 10 of 27
    giaguaragiaguara Posts: 2,724member
    e. still in the top 5 of the flaming arguments in AO.
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  • Reply 11 of 27
    aquafireaquafire Posts: 2,758member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by shetline

    Where is Iraq one year from now? West of Iran, South of Turkey, East of Syria... just where we left it.



    Damm Damm Damm



    You beat this time...!
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  • Reply 12 of 27
    709709 Posts: 2,016member
    Iraq in 1 year is the same, but different, place it is now. Pot-shooting of the AmeriTroops?, mugging for the (increasingly disappearing) cameras, and plotting revenge on the 'Holier than Allah' invaders......Slowing down the slave-wage-Iraqi-built 'bigger & better' oil pipeline by tiny bombing incursions.....another 100,000 American troops sent in to guard the pipeline....GW demands another 40 billion of American tax dollars to 'protect the people of Iraq and 'garuntee' the benificial outcome of American investments in an Eastern State in constant upheaval'.....and, since GW will be running for re-election....he'll tell us with a straight face that WMD 'actually' stood for Women & Men (put to) Death....(in mass graves, of course).....



    Then we attack Iran....
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  • Reply 13 of 27
    aquafireaquafire Posts: 2,758member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by 709

    Iraq in 1 year is the same, but different, place it is now. Pot-shooting of the AmeriTroops?, mugging for the (increasingly disappearing) cameras, and plotting revenge on the 'Holier than Allah' invaders......Slowing down the slave-wage-Iraqi-built 'bigger & better' oil pipeline by tiny bombing incursions.....another 100,000 American troops sent in to guard the pipeline....GW demands another 40 billion of American tax dollars to 'protect the people of Iraq and 'garuntee' the benificial outcome of American investments in an Eastern State in constant upheaval'.....and, since GW will be running for re-election....he'll tell us with a straight face that WMD 'actually' stood for Women & Men (put to) Death....(in mass graves, of course).....



    Then we attack Iran....




    Armageddon here we come....

    So long it happens B4 the last of the George Lucas Pre-squeals of the once great " Star Wars "....

    I don't want to face the big one with those sorts of horrible movie memories to haunt me through eternity..
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  • Reply 14 of 27
    brbr Posts: 8,395member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Anders the White

    Where is Iraq one year from not?



    In the middle east. Bah. Beaten to it.
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  • Reply 15 of 27
    aquafireaquafire Posts: 2,758member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by BR

    In the middle east. Bah. Beaten to it.



    Bit like " Pin the tail on the Donkey "..but its still fun just the same..
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  • Reply 16 of 27
    chinneychinney Posts: 1,019member
    Even if the conditions were currently good (and they are not), the transition to real democracy would be extremely difficult. I picked option 3.
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  • Reply 17 of 27
    groveratgroverat Posts: 10,872member
    Better off.
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  • Reply 18 of 27
    One year?

    Assuming, overoptimistically, a success as resounding as the one with West Germany:

    2004; US/Oz/British/Spanish military occupation with an embryo of civil administration; still much mayhem.

    2008; US/Oz/British/Spanish military occupation with a federal civil adminsitration taking care of most domains of governance, economic growth, relative orderly calm.

    2011; fully independent federal republic (along the main ethno-cultural lines: Shia, Sunni, Kurdish, with a separate federated territory for Baghdad); economic and social indicatios equal or slightly over those achieved before the war with Iran, multi-lateral defence agreement with the US, NATO, and several neighbouring countries.



    But? with Lebanonisation of Saudi Arabia, with US/Oz/British/Israeli military presence in the truce area of Macca and Madinah to prevent the warrying factions from spilling over.

    Not to mention, Islamist fringe factions sending suicide terrorists in all directions, every big city: Tel Aviv, every smaller one: Netanya, but then that trend was already developing since last decade.
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  • Reply 19 of 27
    toweltowel Posts: 1,479member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Immanuel Goldstein

    One year?

    Assuming, overoptimistically, a success as resounding as the one with West Germany:

    2004; US/Oz/British/Spanish military occupation with an embryo of civil administration; still much mayhem.

    2008; US/Oz/British/Spanish military occupation with a federal civil adminsitration taking care of most domains of governance, economic growth, relative orderly calm.

    2011; fully independent federal republic (along the main ethno-cultural lines: Shia, Sunni, Kurdish, with a separate federated territory for Baghdad); economic and social indicatios equal or slightly over those achieved before the war with Iran, multi-lateral defence agreement with the US, NATO, and several neighbouring countries.




    This sounds like a reasonable timeline to me. #3 is probably closest, but it implies that the whole process of transformation is a sham, instead of just taking a while to do right. A year is a vanishingly short time.
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  • Reply 20 of 27
    groveratgroverat Posts: 10,872member
    Quote:

    A year is a vanishingly short time.



    It should've been fixed in a week, haven't you been listening?
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