Apple needs the money and if a 'Jag' fix' can get the 970 out the door with half a year worth of orders on the balance sheet then Apple has a better looking quarter.
Panther will improve performance and keep Apple in the limelight.
Paid upgrade on top of 970s? Sounds too tempting.
Lemon Bon Bon
PS. I'd love to see the 970 intro'd in the laptop first! Riot! Especially if the 'Power'Macs are imminent. If the 970 is way ahead of schedule, why not re-tool the 15 inch intro' to storm the gates of laptop marketshare? A 970 ahead of schedule changes everything.
IBM have paid billions of dollars for leading edge fab facilities. The recent move by Nvidia to have production contracted there indicates the pressure IBM is under to get that dough back. Why wait for half a year to leisurely get those 970s out the door with a Jan 2004 update if you can do it now?
You're building the premise that Panther and the 970 are inextricably or conveniently linked. I agree that Panther appears to be a late summer, early fall release, but I don't think the 970 MUST be tied to Panther. Just my opinion.
I don't think they must be tied together either. I think they will be tied together because the timing is "close enough".
I disagree with your assertion that Apple cannot delay shipping the 970 even a single day. For a mid-summer or early-fall release this just isn't that case... if they announce early they start collecting pre-orders, if they wait silently then they sell more of the existing PowerMac inventory. The incremental sales of waiting another month on top of the time people have been waiting for new super-Macs is not significant. They are going to be able to sell every 970-based Mac they can build, so it doesn't really matter whether they start in July, August or September. If the OS delivery pushes them back then they have a month's production of hardware ready to go on introduction (wouldn't that be nice for a change?). If anything the biggest factor on timing is probably which fiscal quarter the introduction and initial sales fall into. I think we'll see it all at WWDC and we'll get ship dates at that point.
The "good news" and success IBM has from its fabbing of the 970 probably won't shift Apple's production schedule, aside from not pushing it back like bad news would have. There are plenty of other things that have to be coordinated well in advance and bringing a production run online earlier than planned can easily be problematic or even impossible. The news out of IBM primarily means (a) its not bad news and (b) yields will be better than plan, speeds will be higher than estimates, and prices will be lower than predicted. Dates are harder to shift.
LemonBB... didn't Apple give Jaguar to Mac buyers who had purchased less than a ~month prior to its introduction for free?
IBM have paid billions of dollars for leading edge fab facilities. The recent move by Nvidia to have production contracted there indicates the pressure IBM is under to get that dough back. Why wait for half a year to leisurely get those 970s out the door with a Jan 2004 update if you can do it now?
I'm not sure I follow what you are saying here -- you mean you think they can migrate directly to the 0.09 micron 970? The fab can be fully utilized with 0.13 micron parts, shifting the design to 0.09 takes time, and the 0.09 process has yet to be proven on anything -- much less on a new processor design. I don't even think there is any evidence that Jan2004 was the plan for the 0.09 version so if I was to be wildly optimistic about IBM's success I'd say that they'll pull the 0.09 delivering in from summer 2004 to early 2004.
Or are you saying that you thought the 0.13 version wouldn't show up until Jan2004 but now you're more optimistic?
simply, IBM have invested money. Makes sense they want a return on it.
This would chime in with the 'buzz' that 970s are ahead of schedule.
ie the sooner they get stuff out, the sooner they make money on that Fab at New York.
Many thought July to even September optimistic for the .13 970. Now, would anybody be surprised if they hit circa July or earlier..?
No guarantees yet of what Apple will do. But I'm more hopeful now that a .13 will arrive much sooner than Jan' 2004...which some pessimists were touting half a year ago.
.09 970 by Jan' 2004? Seems likely given the current 'vibe' on the grapevine.
So, Programmer, are you going to buy the .13 or wait for the .09 970?
But they won't be able to sell every 970 they build to the people who have already bought Wintel PCs for video work, Programmer.
It doesn't matter. Really.
Apple currently has something like 3% of the PC market. This means 97% of the PC market is potential new growth for their sales. If typical machine life is 2 years (just to pull a number out of a hat) then a 1 month delay is ~4%... so now they only have 93% of the PC market to "switch" in the next two years before that 4% is ready to replace their hardware again. For every buyer who decided to buy in the month that Apple waits there is a buyer who is ready in the month after introduction. Apple has enough cash-in-hand to wait the month and "get it right".
Apple will be able to sell every single 970 they build, there is just too much pent-up demand for it. There is no point in rushing the machine out just to try and attract the buyers who are going to buy in any particular month (the Xmas rush being an exception in the consumer market, but they'll probably make the Xmas buying season with no problem; another exception is the academic procurement cycle, but they probably can't make that this year... although next year is another story).
So, Programmer, are you going to buy the .13 or wait for the .09 970?
I bought a dual 1 GHz last August so I'll probably wait. I might even wait for the 980. The great thing about computers is that the longer you wait the bigger the improvement. If they ship full 64-bit support in Panther, however, I might be sorely tempted...
Since his Steveness declared 2003 as "The Year of the PowerBook" I wouldn't expect the 970 anytime this year. Each new processor has debuted in the desktop line, then adapted to the PowerBook line. I think we'll see the 970 first in XServe, then shortly thereafter in PowerMacs, and eventually (depending on power consumption) in the PowerBooks. iBooks will probably migrate to the G4 and stay with it for 2 years or so.
I was hoping we'd see at least the announcement of 970-based Macs at the WWDC but I really can't see this as a realistic possibility. With Intel chips moving toward 3.5 or 4 GHz by next year this new 970 had damn well better debut at 2.5 GHz.
The part about Steve-o saying this is the "Year of the Powerbook" means absolutely nothing to me. If you were Apple, and your PPC970 development went quicker than schedule, would you or would you not release the 970 ASAP? I mean, it is possible that it was not supposed to go on sale until christmas-ish in 2003/early 2004, thus being the year of the PowerMac, but if its 6 months ahead of schedule (or for that matter ON TIME) I do not think that him saying that will even make them think twice about releasing the most powerful prosumer system out on the market.
When was the last time Apple was on time with anything, never mind early? With Apple's track record with time tables, this will probably turn out to be the "Year and 3/4 of the Laptop".
When was the last time Apple was on time with anything, never mind early? With Apple's track record with time tables, this will probably turn out to be the "Year and 3/4 of the Laptop".
Apple has been traditionally depending on other hardware manufacturers (Motorola, IBM, NVidia, ATI etc.). Partially it is a sad result of marketing impotence, small market share and big pride lurking behind them. I don't think that Apple engineers have ever been really slow doing anything; it's more likely they didn't have enough freedom/resources.
Now is something like the moment of truth: it's now or never. If IBM is doing well, Steve will kill his employees with his own bare hands for not keeping up with the schedule.
What else could he say. Year of the tower? Year of the iPod?
The laptop is the product line that is least dependent of a new CPU. Now with 900 Mhz iBooks on their merry way, the PB seem at least to be due for a speed bump.
The Intel AMD crowd is not standing still (as opposed to Motorola) so 1.8 GHz 970 that are so impressive today will be so so next year. So the notion that Apple will wait to implement 970 until next year is a rather odd idea IMNSHO.
If IBM can produce the 970 in large numbers in 2H 2003, Apple will sell them in large numbers in 2H 2003 8)
Also unlike desktop sales laptop sales are growing quite substantially. It is generally a pretty bad idea to proclaim you're targetting a product that has been showing minimal growth or decline for pretty much every manufacturer.
I have one question? Did the rumors of moto's G5 generate some much
buzz as IBM's 970, in terms of it being used by Apple. I remember reading
of test boxes, but with the 970 not even that. What the hell is going on?>
Good Call ... BUT!:
Moto never announced their G5 chip - IBM's 970 has been announced.
Moto was never interested in putting their thing in blades - IBM has every intention of doing so and has said so.
This time, the mothership [ IBM ] is heavily involved and isn't keeping the chip secret at all, the only secret part here is Apple. So we KNOW the chip exists AND that somebody - IBM - definitely intends to release it (unlike the Moto G5), what we don't know absolutely is if Apple will actually use it ... yes, there is the weakness ... yes we might still be wrong ... but at this point, considering Apple's position, the rumors from Apple's suppliers, it's extremely unlikely Apple ever said "no" to the 970.
In fact, it's looking like they said 'yes' a while ago.
Has anyone heard that IBM is now taking preorders for configurations of eservers w/ IBM's 970?? This was posted on MacNNForums.
Quote:
Xaositect
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As of 4-7-03, 9:00 EDT, you may pre-order specific configurations of eServer computers with PPC970 processors (via salesman only). Following IBM history, you will have web pre-ordering in 4 months and shipping 2-3 months after that. Two of my regular customers have machines on order, with confirmation numbers.
From this information, I surmise that PPC970 production is running ahead of schedule.
If IBM can have a shipping box in 6-7 months, and they work with Apple in the sampling/ramp-up phases of production, there is no reason Apple could not have a produsction unit in the same time or shortly thereafter.
I still lean towards a January release from Apple, if they go with the PPC970 (which is not yet a confirmed rumor).
Reality check:
Confirmed - pre-orders are available today.
Unconfirmed: Time schedule is based on history, may change. Apple has not declred they will be using PPC970 chips. Apple/IBM co-ordination level is unknown.
Analysis: More unconfirmed than confirmed, though some unconfirmed are reasonable estimates. Probability: 62% using standard Epps weighting. Ad-hoc adjustment from market analysis: +5-8%, as other options do not appear to exist. End Probability: 67-70%.
YMMV seems the only appropriate ending to this post.
I'll have to go digging for a link to the article, but apparently IBM's Fishkill fab is already running at about 1/3 capacity, satisfying orders for customers. IBM expects it to ramp up steadily from there and reach full bore by the end of the year.
So there's definitely something coming off the lines as we speak. And it's not sampling.
Comments
Apple needs the money and if a 'Jag' fix' can get the 970 out the door with half a year worth of orders on the balance sheet then Apple has a better looking quarter.
Panther will improve performance and keep Apple in the limelight.
Paid upgrade on top of 970s? Sounds too tempting.
Lemon Bon Bon
PS. I'd love to see the 970 intro'd in the laptop first! Riot! Especially if the 'Power'Macs are imminent. If the 970 is way ahead of schedule, why not re-tool the 15 inch intro' to storm the gates of laptop marketshare? A 970 ahead of schedule changes everything.
IBM have paid billions of dollars for leading edge fab facilities. The recent move by Nvidia to have production contracted there indicates the pressure IBM is under to get that dough back. Why wait for half a year to leisurely get those 970s out the door with a Jan 2004 update if you can do it now?
Originally posted by jccbin
You're building the premise that Panther and the 970 are inextricably or conveniently linked. I agree that Panther appears to be a late summer, early fall release, but I don't think the 970 MUST be tied to Panther. Just my opinion.
I don't think they must be tied together either. I think they will be tied together because the timing is "close enough".
I disagree with your assertion that Apple cannot delay shipping the 970 even a single day. For a mid-summer or early-fall release this just isn't that case... if they announce early they start collecting pre-orders, if they wait silently then they sell more of the existing PowerMac inventory. The incremental sales of waiting another month on top of the time people have been waiting for new super-Macs is not significant. They are going to be able to sell every 970-based Mac they can build, so it doesn't really matter whether they start in July, August or September. If the OS delivery pushes them back then they have a month's production of hardware ready to go on introduction (wouldn't that be nice for a change?). If anything the biggest factor on timing is probably which fiscal quarter the introduction and initial sales fall into. I think we'll see it all at WWDC and we'll get ship dates at that point.
The "good news" and success IBM has from its fabbing of the 970 probably won't shift Apple's production schedule, aside from not pushing it back like bad news would have. There are plenty of other things that have to be coordinated well in advance and bringing a production run online earlier than planned can easily be problematic or even impossible. The news out of IBM primarily means (a) its not bad news and (b) yields will be better than plan, speeds will be higher than estimates, and prices will be lower than predicted. Dates are harder to shift.
LemonBB... didn't Apple give Jaguar to Mac buyers who had purchased less than a ~month prior to its introduction for free?
Originally posted by Lemon Bon Bon
IBM have paid billions of dollars for leading edge fab facilities. The recent move by Nvidia to have production contracted there indicates the pressure IBM is under to get that dough back. Why wait for half a year to leisurely get those 970s out the door with a Jan 2004 update if you can do it now?
I'm not sure I follow what you are saying here -- you mean you think they can migrate directly to the 0.09 micron 970? The fab can be fully utilized with 0.13 micron parts, shifting the design to 0.09 takes time, and the 0.09 process has yet to be proven on anything -- much less on a new processor design. I don't even think there is any evidence that Jan2004 was the plan for the 0.09 version so if I was to be wildly optimistic about IBM's success I'd say that they'll pull the 0.09 delivering in from summer 2004 to early 2004.
Or are you saying that you thought the 0.13 version wouldn't show up until Jan2004 but now you're more optimistic?
This would chime in with the 'buzz' that 970s are ahead of schedule.
ie the sooner they get stuff out, the sooner they make money on that Fab at New York.
Many thought July to even September optimistic for the .13 970. Now, would anybody be surprised if they hit circa July or earlier..?
No guarantees yet of what Apple will do. But I'm more hopeful now that a .13 will arrive much sooner than Jan' 2004...which some pessimists were touting half a year ago.
.09 970 by Jan' 2004? Seems likely given the current 'vibe' on the grapevine.
So, Programmer, are you going to buy the .13 or wait for the .09 970?
Lemon Bon Bon
Sure they'll sell all they build, but every video shop that goes PC is one that won't go Mac for a couple of years.
PowerMac sales are HALF what they were in 2000. Apple sold 1,436,000 PowerMacs in 2000.
They sold 766,000 in 2002.
The revenue from PowerMacs is half what it was in 2000, as well.
Sales of iBooks, iMacs and PowerBooks are up from 2001, though the iMac and PowerBook sales are below 2000 sales levels.
Every day they wait, is a day that several people/companies buy something else.
Originally posted by jccbin
PowerMac sales are HALF what they were in 2000. Apple sold 1,436,000 PowerMacs in 2000.
They sold 766,000 in 2002.
The revenue from PowerMacs is half what it was in 2000, as well.
Sales of iBooks, iMacs and PowerBooks are up from 2001, though the iMac and PowerBook sales are below 2000 sales levels.
where do you get these numbers from?
(i love numbers
I think you can download a copy from:
http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/ir...t=800&layout=8
Originally posted by jccbin
But they won't be able to sell every 970 they build to the people who have already bought Wintel PCs for video work, Programmer.
It doesn't matter. Really.
Apple currently has something like 3% of the PC market. This means 97% of the PC market is potential new growth for their sales. If typical machine life is 2 years (just to pull a number out of a hat) then a 1 month delay is ~4%... so now they only have 93% of the PC market to "switch" in the next two years before that 4% is ready to replace their hardware again. For every buyer who decided to buy in the month that Apple waits there is a buyer who is ready in the month after introduction. Apple has enough cash-in-hand to wait the month and "get it right".
Apple will be able to sell every single 970 they build, there is just too much pent-up demand for it. There is no point in rushing the machine out just to try and attract the buyers who are going to buy in any particular month (the Xmas rush being an exception in the consumer market, but they'll probably make the Xmas buying season with no problem; another exception is the academic procurement cycle, but they probably can't make that this year... although next year is another story).
Originally posted by Lemon Bon Bon
So, Programmer, are you going to buy the .13 or wait for the .09 970?
I bought a dual 1 GHz last August so I'll probably wait. I might even wait for the 980.
I was hoping we'd see at least the announcement of 970-based Macs at the WWDC but I really can't see this as a realistic possibility. With Intel chips moving toward 3.5 or 4 GHz by next year this new 970 had damn well better debut at 2.5 GHz.
Originally posted by rambo47
When was the last time Apple was on time with anything, never mind early? With Apple's track record with time tables, this will probably turn out to be the "Year and 3/4 of the Laptop".
Apple has been traditionally depending on other hardware manufacturers (Motorola, IBM, NVidia, ATI etc.). Partially it is a sad result of marketing impotence, small market share and big pride lurking behind them. I don't think that Apple engineers have ever been really slow doing anything; it's more likely they didn't have enough freedom/resources.
Now is something like the moment of truth: it's now or never. If IBM is doing well, Steve will kill his employees with his own bare hands for not keeping up with the schedule.
What else could he say. Year of the tower? Year of the iPod?
The laptop is the product line that is least dependent of a new CPU. Now with 900 Mhz iBooks on their merry way, the PB seem at least to be due for a speed bump.
The Intel AMD crowd is not standing still (as opposed to Motorola) so 1.8 GHz 970 that are so impressive today will be so so next year. So the notion that Apple will wait to implement 970 until next year is a rather odd idea IMNSHO.
If IBM can produce the 970 in large numbers in 2H 2003, Apple will sell them in large numbers in 2H 2003 8)
buzz as IBM's 970, in terms of it being used by Apple. I remember reading
of test boxes, but with the 970 not even that. What the hell is going on?>
Originally posted by ghstmars
I have one question? Did the rumors of moto's G5 generate some much
buzz as IBM's 970, in terms of it being used by Apple. I remember reading
of test boxes, but with the 970 not even that. What the hell is going on?>
Good Call ... BUT!:
Moto never announced their G5 chip - IBM's 970 has been announced.
Moto was never interested in putting their thing in blades - IBM has every intention of doing so and has said so.
This time, the mothership [ IBM ] is heavily involved and isn't keeping the chip secret at all, the only secret part here is Apple. So we KNOW the chip exists AND that somebody - IBM - definitely intends to release it (unlike the Moto G5), what we don't know absolutely is if Apple will actually use it ... yes, there is the weakness ... yes we might still be wrong ... but at this point, considering Apple's position, the rumors from Apple's suppliers, it's extremely unlikely Apple ever said "no" to the 970.
In fact, it's looking like they said 'yes' a while ago.
Whew!
Xaositect
Veteran Member
Posts: 269
Location: Pandemonium
Registered: Jan 2001
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New Post Posted on : 04-07-2003 09:05 PM Click Here to See the Profile for Xaositect Click here to Send Xaositect a Private Message Click Here to Email XaositectEdit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
As of 4-7-03, 9:00 EDT, you may pre-order specific configurations of eServer computers with PPC970 processors (via salesman only). Following IBM history, you will have web pre-ordering in 4 months and shipping 2-3 months after that. Two of my regular customers have machines on order, with confirmation numbers.
From this information, I surmise that PPC970 production is running ahead of schedule.
If IBM can have a shipping box in 6-7 months, and they work with Apple in the sampling/ramp-up phases of production, there is no reason Apple could not have a produsction unit in the same time or shortly thereafter.
I still lean towards a January release from Apple, if they go with the PPC970 (which is not yet a confirmed rumor).
Reality check:
Confirmed - pre-orders are available today.
Unconfirmed: Time schedule is based on history, may change. Apple has not declred they will be using PPC970 chips. Apple/IBM co-ordination level is unknown.
Analysis: More unconfirmed than confirmed, though some unconfirmed are reasonable estimates. Probability: 62% using standard Epps weighting. Ad-hoc adjustment from market analysis: +5-8%, as other options do not appear to exist. End Probability: 67-70%.
YMMV seems the only appropriate ending to this post.
So there's definitely something coming off the lines as we speak. And it's not sampling.