My guess is that the iBook will eventually be discontinued. As G5s get faster and cheaper, the 12" Powerbook will be Apple's economy solution; the plastic computers and AIOs will disappear from the lineup, both the eMac and the iMac LCD. The iMac LCD will be replaced by a headless model in a small metal case.
As for the CPUs: G3s will be used in iBooks as long as it looks like people will still buy them, but the performance gap between the G3 and the G5 is huge and will get huger. The G3 is popular in embedded systems and may get used in a small tablet computer.
The G4 is about to become history. The models you see today are the last ones.
This scenario seems unlikely IMO. All in Ones are built for people who want a simple plug in solution. Why deprive them of this by making them require a separate monitor?
Technical reasons do not drive all of Apple's decisions. This applies to the iBook as well, which sells well (Maine schools for example) and is highly unlikely to be phased out. That would leave an entry level price of what? $1799 for laptops? Not very sensible.....
Edit: Hmmm. Perhaps I should have read the four or five responses to cubist's post that were already written. Oh well.
Motorola has also made noises about a "high performance PowerPC" due next year. That's from the horse's mouth, not from MOSR.
There's always something on the horizon for Motorola
Quote:
There are at present no details, but perhaps we should entertain the possibility that a Motorola successor to the G4 fabricated at 90nm in Crolles might be able to challenge the G5 in the laptop space, simply because the requirements of a notebook play to Motorola's design strengths.
I know not what you speak of, but at SNDF 2003 (Motorola's annual Smart Networks Developer Forum), they said that a dual-core PPC with AltiVec is on the roadmap:
Code:
So here is what we think
? We are putting a Dual core processor on our roadmap.
There's always something on the horizon for Motorola
A fair point. But they do deliver eventually. They did, finally, get to 130nm after all.
Quote:
I know not what you speak of, but at SNDF 2003 (Motorola's annual Smart Networks Developer Forum), they said that a dual-core PPC with AltiVec is on the roadmap:
Code:
So here is what we think
? We are putting a Dual core processor on our roadmap.
? Classic PPC with AltiVec
? Capable of going up to 2GHz
? At 1.5 GHz power dissipation of 25 Watts
? And it will have system integration on it
? DDRI and DDRII
? Advanced IO ? RapidIO
? General Purpose IO
That might be it, then. And you've got to say, that would be a sweet notebook CPU.
That might be it, then. And you've got to say, that would be a sweet notebook CPU.
I think it's just Motorola's response to IBM's PPC 970 encroaching on to the embedded market. And yes, if they can get it shipping early enough, it would be a very nice notebook CPU.
An 970 with SMT versus this dual-core Moto PPC would be an interesting tradeoff...
? We are putting a Dual core processor on our roadmap.
? Classic PPC with AltiVec
? Capable of going up to 2GHz
? At 1.5 GHz power dissipation of 25 Watts
? And it will have system integration on it
? DDRI and DDRII
? Advanced IO ? RapidIO
? General Purpose IO
some questions:
Will that be before or after they sell off their semiconductor division?
I wonder what their tape out date for this will be?
I'm not sure how they will mate a 1.67MHz maxbus FSbus to RapidI/O and DDR ram. Is that even possible?
DUAL CORE, ha. They're how far behind the rest of the industry in implementing a 0.13µm process. Who out there is currently manufacturing a dual core processor? I know IBM is.
The MPC7447 1.33GHz is already @ 26watts and they're saying this mythical chip @ 1.5GHz will be 25 watts, when? In 5 years, when they get to 0.09µm?
Based on past history, we need to add some time from Motorola's projected introduction to their actual introduction and base the calculation on an exponential scale.
For example if Motorola claims they will introduce it in 1 year, then actual production will be e^1 = 2.72 years
Or if they project 1.5 years, then actual production will be in e^1.5 = 4.5 years.
No, I'm not frustrated with Motorola's roadmaps, naw, not at all.
Will that be before or after they sell off their semiconductor division?
With Galvin about to retire, who knows. Motorola may in fact survive!
Quote:
I'm not sure how they will mate a 1.67MHz maxbus FSbus to RapidI/O and DDR ram. Is that even possible?
Like all new Moto processors, it'll have an on-chip memory controller for memory support and RapidIO for chip bridging and I/O support. The general purpose I/O is probably the MPX bus for legacy support. Ie, 3 different independent interfaces on the chip. They'll probably use a variation of the OCEAN fabric they developed for the 8540/8560 to bridge all the different interfaces on-chip.
Quote:
DUAL CORE, ha. They're how far behind the rest of the industry in implementing a 0.13µm process. Who out there is currently manufacturing a dual core processor? I know IBM is.
IBM, yes. Broadcom has a dual-core MIPS chip (the BCM1250, for Moto's market no less) that they got from the buyout of SiByte, but I'm not sure they've shipped. Sun has plans, they maybe. Intel has plans. HP has plans. Probably some network chip we never pay attention to.
Quote:
The MPC7447 1.33GHz is already @ 26watts and they're saying this mythical chip @ 1.5GHz will be 25 watts, when? In 5 years, when they get to 0.09µm?
Galvin's departure as CEO of MOT has led to speculation that MOT will be divided up. There was talk yesterday of the semiconductor unit being sold as well. (Nightly business report on PBS)
There's talk about selling off bits of Moto because, apparently, Galvin was adamant about keeping them together to exploit "synergy" (please forgive me for using that word) between them. With him gone, and with that strategy considered unattractive not least because it was Galvin's, the shareholders are quite eager about the prospect of selloffs.
Mot SPS is currently unprofitable, and it's not seen as relevant to the manufacture of cell phones and the like, so if management follows the will of the shareholders it'll probably be one of the first on the block. European contract fab and current SPS partner STMicroelectronics is considered a likely buyer.
That definitely has implications for Motorola as a PowerPC partner, and also for whoever buys SPS. On the other hand, SPS has some big customers and a widely respected platform (outside of the Mac professional market, at least), so a buyer might see the potential to tighten up the efficiency of the unit and return it to profitability instead of gutting it. Or not.
Ever since Darth Jobs ended the Clone Wars there's been talks about Motorola deliberately hindered Apple's development. Talk witch i find absurd but everyone here have heard it. This might be the end of those talks.
If they do sell their semiconductor business, the PowerPC might end up in a more friendly environment. But.. I don't think anyone will retarget Motorolas business to reconqueror the desktop market. But who know..they might come to their senses and develop cheap PPC-chipsets together with nVidia, Asus or Via, and start up a brand spaning new line of Linux-desktops to conquer the emerging corporate desktop Linux market. I really hope IBM have targeted that market with a PPC-platform. They surely would like to make everything froms server hardware and operating systems to the desktop, including OS, PDAs, processors and services. Not a dime to Microsoft and Intel. IBM will have their revenge..
If PPC ends up in a more Apple friendly environment, Apple might convince the new owner to make custom chips tailormade for Apple. We've seen Motorola concentrating on the embedded market for to long. With their grudge out of the way a new owner just might wan't to keep Apple as a customer. They are a very large one after all.
I didn't expect a well reasoned response, but thank you.
I was trying to be sarcastic, especially about the mxp bus stuff (Like how could Motorola cripple what appears to be very good designed processors, the MPC8540/MPC8560). Bad joke on my part I guess. In this day, I think there is no excuse for a desktop computer to run on a 167MHz FSB especially in the price ranges Apple sells.
As far as Motorola selling off parts/all of the semiconductor division, they recently teamed with Phillips and STMicroelectronics, presumably sharing in the cost of Crolles. They shut down several facilities and layed off thousands of employees. hmmm, buy high sell low. Selling during an economic downturn doesn't make sense to me, so I don't think massive sell offs will occur quickly if at all, unless Motorola is really hurting on a massive scale. Note: my opinion in this is uninformed and not to be taken very seriously.
Comments
Originally posted by cubist
My guess is that the iBook will eventually be discontinued. As G5s get faster and cheaper, the 12" Powerbook will be Apple's economy solution; the plastic computers and AIOs will disappear from the lineup, both the eMac and the iMac LCD. The iMac LCD will be replaced by a headless model in a small metal case.
As for the CPUs: G3s will be used in iBooks as long as it looks like people will still buy them, but the performance gap between the G3 and the G5 is huge and will get huger. The G3 is popular in embedded systems and may get used in a small tablet computer.
The G4 is about to become history. The models you see today are the last ones.
This scenario seems unlikely IMO. All in Ones are built for people who want a simple plug in solution. Why deprive them of this by making them require a separate monitor?
Technical reasons do not drive all of Apple's decisions. This applies to the iBook as well, which sells well (Maine schools for example) and is highly unlikely to be phased out. That would leave an entry level price of what? $1799 for laptops? Not very sensible.....
Edit: Hmmm. Perhaps I should have read the four or five responses to cubist's post that were already written. Oh well.
Originally posted by Amorph
Motorola has also made noises about a "high performance PowerPC" due next year. That's from the horse's mouth, not from MOSR.
There's always something on the horizon for Motorola
There are at present no details, but perhaps we should entertain the possibility that a Motorola successor to the G4 fabricated at 90nm in Crolles might be able to challenge the G5 in the laptop space, simply because the requirements of a notebook play to Motorola's design strengths.
I know not what you speak of, but at SNDF 2003 (Motorola's annual Smart Networks Developer Forum), they said that a dual-core PPC with AltiVec is on the roadmap:
So here is what we think
? We are putting a Dual core processor on our roadmap.
? Classic PPC with AltiVec
? Capable of going up to 2GHz
? At 1.5 GHz power dissipation of 25 Watts
? And it will have system integration on it
? DDRI and DDRII
? Advanced IO ? RapidIO
? General Purpose IO
Originally posted by THT
There's always something on the horizon for Motorola
A fair point.
I know not what you speak of, but at SNDF 2003 (Motorola's annual Smart Networks Developer Forum), they said that a dual-core PPC with AltiVec is on the roadmap:
Code:
So here is what we think
? We are putting a Dual core processor on our roadmap.
? Classic PPC with AltiVec
? Capable of going up to 2GHz
? At 1.5 GHz power dissipation of 25 Watts
? And it will have system integration on it
? DDRI and DDRII
? Advanced IO ? RapidIO
? General Purpose IO
That might be it, then. And you've got to say, that would be a sweet notebook CPU.
Originally posted by Amorph
That might be it, then. And you've got to say, that would be a sweet notebook CPU.
I think it's just Motorola's response to IBM's PPC 970 encroaching on to the embedded market. And yes, if they can get it shipping early enough, it would be a very nice notebook CPU.
An 970 with SMT versus this dual-core Moto PPC would be an interesting tradeoff...
Originally posted by THT
So here is what we think
? We are putting a Dual core processor on our roadmap.
? Classic PPC with AltiVec
? Capable of going up to 2GHz
? At 1.5 GHz power dissipation of 25 Watts
? And it will have system integration on it
? DDRI and DDRII
? Advanced IO ? RapidIO
? General Purpose IO
some questions:
Will that be before or after they sell off their semiconductor division?
I wonder what their tape out date for this will be?
I'm not sure how they will mate a 1.67MHz maxbus FSbus to RapidI/O and DDR ram. Is that even possible?
DUAL CORE, ha. They're how far behind the rest of the industry in implementing a 0.13µm process. Who out there is currently manufacturing a dual core processor? I know IBM is.
The MPC7447 1.33GHz is already @ 26watts and they're saying this mythical chip @ 1.5GHz will be 25 watts, when? In 5 years, when they get to 0.09µm?
Based on past history, we need to add some time from Motorola's projected introduction to their actual introduction and base the calculation on an exponential scale.
For example if Motorola claims they will introduce it in 1 year, then actual production will be e^1 = 2.72 years
Or if they project 1.5 years, then actual production will be in e^1.5 = 4.5 years.
No, I'm not frustrated with Motorola's roadmaps, naw, not at all.
I just found out that Motorola sold the MPC106 and MPC107 to Tundra. Could mean nothing or could mean Motorola is in a selling mood?
Anyone have wild and unfounded speculation to share?
Originally posted by rickag
some questions:
Will that be before or after they sell off their semiconductor division?
With Galvin about to retire, who knows. Motorola may in fact survive!
I'm not sure how they will mate a 1.67MHz maxbus FSbus to RapidI/O and DDR ram. Is that even possible?
Like all new Moto processors, it'll have an on-chip memory controller for memory support and RapidIO for chip bridging and I/O support. The general purpose I/O is probably the MPX bus for legacy support. Ie, 3 different independent interfaces on the chip. They'll probably use a variation of the OCEAN fabric they developed for the 8540/8560 to bridge all the different interfaces on-chip.
DUAL CORE, ha. They're how far behind the rest of the industry in implementing a 0.13µm process. Who out there is currently manufacturing a dual core processor? I know IBM is.
IBM, yes. Broadcom has a dual-core MIPS chip (the BCM1250, for Moto's market no less) that they got from the buyout of SiByte, but I'm not sure they've shipped. Sun has plans, they maybe. Intel has plans. HP has plans. Probably some network chip we never pay attention to.
The MPC7447 1.33GHz is already @ 26watts and they're saying this mythical chip @ 1.5GHz will be 25 watts, when? In 5 years, when they get to 0.09µm?
This is most definitely a 90 nm or better chip.
Motorola is in talks with Tundra Semiconductor Corp. to sell off it's Host Bridge PowerPC product line. Motorola confirms talks with Tundra
Who knows where the PowerPC road map (as far as MOT) leads.
Mot SPS is currently unprofitable, and it's not seen as relevant to the manufacture of cell phones and the like, so if management follows the will of the shareholders it'll probably be one of the first on the block. European contract fab and current SPS partner STMicroelectronics is considered a likely buyer.
That definitely has implications for Motorola as a PowerPC partner, and also for whoever buys SPS. On the other hand, SPS has some big customers and a widely respected platform (outside of the Mac professional market, at least), so a buyer might see the potential to tighten up the efficiency of the unit and return it to profitability instead of gutting it. Or not.
Time will tell.
If they do sell their semiconductor business, the PowerPC might end up in a more friendly environment. But.. I don't think anyone will retarget Motorolas business to reconqueror the desktop market. But who know..they might come to their senses and develop cheap PPC-chipsets together with nVidia, Asus or Via, and start up a brand spaning new line of Linux-desktops to conquer the emerging corporate desktop Linux market. I really hope IBM have targeted that market with a PPC-platform. They surely would like to make everything froms server hardware and operating systems to the desktop, including OS, PDAs, processors and services. Not a dime to Microsoft and Intel. IBM will have their revenge..
If PPC ends up in a more Apple friendly environment, Apple might convince the new owner to make custom chips tailormade for Apple. We've seen Motorola concentrating on the embedded market for to long. With their grudge out of the way a new owner just might wan't to keep Apple as a customer. They are a very large one after all.
I didn't expect a well reasoned response, but thank you.
I was trying to be sarcastic, especially about the mxp bus stuff (Like how could Motorola cripple what appears to be very good designed processors, the MPC8540/MPC8560). Bad joke on my part I guess. In this day, I think there is no excuse for a desktop computer to run on a 167MHz FSB especially in the price ranges Apple sells.
As far as Motorola selling off parts/all of the semiconductor division, they recently teamed with Phillips and STMicroelectronics, presumably sharing in the cost of Crolles. They shut down several facilities and layed off thousands of employees. hmmm, buy high sell low. Selling during an economic downturn doesn't make sense to me, so I don't think massive sell offs will occur quickly if at all, unless Motorola is really hurting on a massive scale. Note: my opinion in this is uninformed and not to be taken very seriously.