Apple market share is down, again

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  • Reply 21 of 107
    pscatespscates Posts: 5,847member
    I'm betting 2004 will be an interesting year on this front. IMO, all the pieces are more than in place. This might be really nice, and I'm very hopeful.



    If, this time next year, it's still at current levels - or less! - then there's obviously something not being done right. That's just true. And no amount of "it takes time and patience, pscates" and BMW/Mercedes analogies are going to convince me otherwise.







    Either do it or don't. But enough with the coy, half-ass approach...and then honestly wondering why you're still at the same levels when you check next year.



    If Apple themselves are cool with, and not bothered by, the 3% figure, then that's totally fine...I guess I'm not either. Maybe that's just our cool little niche we have to play in? As long as Adobe and others stick around, we'll be fine.



    Otherwise, quit ****ing around.
  • Reply 22 of 107
    crusadercrusader Posts: 1,129member
    More marketshare is always nice. The most Macs Apple ever shipped in a year was what, 4.5 million? At this time I believe Apple was hemorrhaging, and was about to die. Apple was screwed up, and completely lost. Eight years later, Apple may not be shipping as many Macs, but they sure as hell have a clear direction and a way to get there.



    I believe two things have screwed Apple over so far in their quest for growth: The recession, and Motorola dropping the ball on the G4. Now with the economy seemingly recovering, and with some indicators pointing to increased technology spending all around, Apple is in a GREAT position for growth. Bump the iMacs and eMacs to G5s and boost the G5s to a revision B @ 3 Ghz, and I think it is quite possible to see Apple hit 2.5 million macs shipped in this year.



    Apple may not be shipping as many Macs as you would like, but the potential for growth is there. I doubt we will ever see ten percent marketshare in our lives, but hell, why not?!? Anything is possible, but what is wrong is to think that Apple is in trouble because they haven't been shipping as many Macs as of late. The current marketshare is a pittance, yes, but GROWTH can happen. However if Apple can't reverse this trend even with strong products soon, it won't look too good to developers, and hey that's the lifeblood.



    <Note: I'm tired, so anything I said above may be kinda jumbled together, thanks>
  • Reply 23 of 107
    pscatespscates Posts: 5,847member
    I think for Apple to reach 10% (and yes, I honestly, truly believe it can indeed be done), they're going to have to do some things many of you simply aren't going to be cool with.



    That, too, is just true.



    I think the biggest plank in the foundation would be fairly cheap and easy: simple information. Simply working to undo and dispel a decade's worth of distortions, lies, myths, dumbass-brother-in-law opinions, etc. would, in my opinion, be the starting point.



    They could have a section of their site, devoted solely to this. They could run a catchy ad in non-Mac quarters with a URL to this.



    No amount of 3GHz this or dual-processor that is going to trump the deeply ingrained doubts and fears many, many people have about Apple and Macs. For every jump in GHz Apple makes in the coming months and years, there are that many more people out there who think "Apple filed for bankruptcy, didn't they?", "Yeah, Microsoft bought them out..." or "Well, they're not 'real' computers...they're only for graphics".



    Trust me...that crap is still out there in HUGE numbers. In fact, hardly not a week goes by that I don't run into someone through work or a friend of a friend and at some point in the conversation, it'll come up what I do for a living and that leads to Macs and Apple being mentioned. I can say, in all seriousness, that the amount of complete, know-nothing horseshit and misinformation believed and accepted-as-fact by non-Mac users out there would make your head spin.







    THAT'S the big hurdle. Not specs.



    An information campaign.



    Not "Switch", but "Know".



  • Reply 24 of 107
    ipeonipeon Posts: 1,122member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by pscates

    An information campaign.



    Information campaigns in today's society is won by the one with the most money to spend on propaganda. It's a war that Apple would lose. Actually it's the very enemy that Apple has been up against all along. To get in there and go head to head with an info campaign "war" is what Apple does not need. Hence the failure of the switch campaign.



    Steve is doing it just right. Smile, make no fuss and create partnerships while making Apple the shiny star.
  • Reply 25 of 107
    Quote:

    Originally posted by iPeon

    Steve is doing it just right. Smile, make no fuss and create partnerships while making Apple the shiny star.



    I think that you are partly correct about this. Steve is doing all of that with Apple, but at the same time you should also notice his publicly harsh comments on Microsoft, Dell, and Windows in general. I think Apple is going to push the truth about themselves very shortly, once everything is where they want it to be. Another interesting dilema is the fact that Apple doesnt even have enough unit production to grow market share, in a quick way at least.



    The iPod is a sure sign that things at Apple are working and overall, the company is going to continue to grow and get better...if for no other reason than the iPod.



    I just have some feeling that there is just one or two more things up Apple's/Steve's sleeve that will make people take another look at Apple and maybe take the jump. The iPod is one example of the potential home run Apple can hit, now they need to step up to the plate again, all while continuing to strengthen every other part of their game. It is such a tricky thing, there are so many minute details and different things going on all at once inside a company, and Apple has to sure up every available product while it also works on new ones.



    2004 may be a year in which Apple does indeed hit us hard with something amazing, more lust worthy than an iPod. Some kind of product with global impact is something I expect...I dont think Steve just said all that stuff about the anniversary just "to be cute about it". They have and are working on something, you gotta believe that.
  • Reply 26 of 107
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Amorph ]Smaller market share doesn't mean fewer computers sold, nor does it indicate anything about the installed base. It means, in this context, that the overall number of machines shipped last quarter grew faster than the overall number of Macs shipped.



    I'll preface this by saying I've had a couple of glasses of a rather fine Rosemount Estate Reisling so if what follows is stupid, go easy.



    I've never really thought about this before but, of course, this has to be the way they do it because how could they know what people actually use.



    So, if I'm understanding this correctly, the market share figures represent a conglomeration of switchers (either way), upgraders, first time computer-buyers, those buying because their old machine died, whatever. Is that right?



    So, if for instance, Macs are more reliable and don't need to be replaced as often as Wintels, this will skew the reality of what's really happening at ground zero won't it? Does this mean 95% of Apple's 3% could be switchers while 50% of Wintels 90% are replacing dead 2 year old machines? If the figures don't indicate anything about the installed base then I guess the answer is yes. Which must mean they're virtually meaningless doesn't it?
  • Reply 27 of 107
    eugeneeugene Posts: 8,254member
    CorelDraw, poof.
  • Reply 28 of 107
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Eugene

    Is that why Connectix decided to sell VirtualPC to Microsoft and die?





    No, I would probably say its because microsoft made them an offer they couldnt refuse...



    Microsoft often buys companies and pays more than they are worth to get the tech. some give in, some dont.

    \
  • Reply 29 of 107
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Eugene

    CorelDraw, poof.





    Good Riddance, their software has sucked for years.

    Not since the Amiga days do I remember them having anything I liked.
  • Reply 30 of 107
    Am I correct on market share.



    I assume most PC's are much cheaper than Macs. So if Ciruit City sells 3 PC's at $700, and Apple sells 1 at $2100, then Apple's market share is 25%, not 50%.



    Also, if true, is it possible that Apple's "dollar share" is not falling, but actually rising?



    Is this all bogus?



    Thanks,

    Dr. L
  • Reply 31 of 107
    Quote:

    Originally posted by hledgard

    Am I correct on market share.



    I assume most PC's are much cheaper than Macs. So if Ciruit City sells 3 PC's at $700, and Apple sells 1 at $2100, then Apple's market share is 25%, not 50%.



    Also, if true, is it possible that Apple's "dollar share" is not falling, but actually rising?



    Is this all bogus?



    Thanks,

    Dr. L




    Yet again, a good point. Apple still does remain one of very few companies making money from the computers it sells. Dell and Apple have consistently been the only PC manufacturers that actually reap profits from their sales. I am not sure how that all played out this past quarter with Gateway, HP, IBM, Dell, and Sony though...obviously Apple made profits but didnt gain market share...some of these other companies could be gaining market share at the expense of profit making. If some PC vendors are doing that, they wont even be around long term so their market share numbers will drop off the face of the planet if the parent company isnt around!
  • Reply 32 of 107
    a_greera_greer Posts: 4,594member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by DMBand0026

    You sound like my dad's stock broker from a few years ago, the time when there was real concern about Apple's future. He said to not buy Apple stock because they would either go belly up, or their market share would shrink even more. Proved him wrong didn't they? Maybe the stock isn't the smartest investment, I'm not here to tell you that, that's what your broker is for. As far as Apple's future, I would say that it hasn't looked brighter in a good number of years. Apple is here to stay, no doubt in my mind.





    hummm.....broker,

    if their goal was to MAKE money for the CUSTOMER wouldnt they be called (money)Makers as opposed to (o crud I'm)BROKEr
  • Reply 33 of 107
    amorphamorph Posts: 7,112member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Blue Shift



    The company shipped 1.675 million Macs in 2003, compared with 1.679 units in 2002.




    ...into the US-only channels that IDC tracks. That isn't even close to the number of Macs the company shipped.



    Today's As the Apple Turns has an interesting take.



    To me, the larger problem is the one Eugene identified, which is that we're always talking about a bit more or a bit less than an essentially fixed number.
  • Reply 34 of 107
    guestguest Posts: 112member
    Don't be too concerned with shrinking marketshare. Remember, the market for computers is still growing (China anyone?). Every year there are more customers than the last. If Apple's numbers stayed the SAME it would indicate growth.
  • Reply 35 of 107
    crusadercrusader Posts: 1,129member
    Wow, posted at 2:30 AM, jeez Jack must be running on something inhuman...
  • Reply 36 of 107
    This could be a completely crazy idea but none the less I wanna see your guys opinions...



    What if apple were to do another multi billion dollar marketing campaign to get PC users to switch over...



    They could sell 1 million or 5 million new 17" iMacs with a G5 for say $500 when a customer trades in there old 1GHz or faster PC with a monitor. Apple could then donate the machines for a tax write off. Just think of how many pc users that could and would take advantage of this. Once they are using the Mac with OS X, think of how many friends or family they would talk to about THEIR experience. As pscates said, they need to run a "truth" campagian to get people to see apple isn't bankrupt or whatever else people are affraid of. I know and have come across the same problems with PC users as pscates has. Experience is always the best teacher.



    Anyway just a crazy idea I had while reading this thread. Thoughts everyone...
  • Reply 37 of 107
    satchmosatchmo Posts: 2,699member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by guest

    Remember, the market for computers is still growing (China anyone?).



    Yeah, Apple needs to capture 90% of China's population...hmm, imagining 1 billion Macs sold.
  • Reply 38 of 107
    eugeneeugene Posts: 8,254member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by hledgard



    Also, if true, is it possible that Apple's "dollar share" is not falling, but actually rising?




    Compared to when? And just how important do you think dollar-share is?
  • Reply 39 of 107
    Ahh yes marketshare marketshare, you have to ask yourself what does it really matter to begin with. Also I hear that as a consumer share its more like 30% its business and gov sales that screw up those numbers. Also think of the logistics of it, there's a lot of room for screwupability.
  • Reply 40 of 107
    You know what hit me thats wierd... is that while apple markets the platform for consumers... professionally it really shines, as does the software developed for professionals on it. Just wierd if you ask me. A lot of consumers that buy mac's hardly ever buy software for it as well, at least thats my perception.
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