Polls show Bush Vulnerable
Clark, Edwards, Kerry gain ground in polls against Bush
John Kerry is still the candidate with the big lead over Bush, but two candidates who have yet to win any primaries or caucuses, Senator John Edwards and General Wesley Clark are also polling within the margin of error against the President.
Bush's approval rating is also below 50% for the first time in his Presidency, but Americans still see him as a strong leader and more patriotic. He polls poorly, however, due to his handling of the economy, foreign affairs, Iraq, and health care.
It is going to be a close race in November, with Clark, Kerry, or Edwards standing a good chance to beat President Bush.
John Kerry is still the candidate with the big lead over Bush, but two candidates who have yet to win any primaries or caucuses, Senator John Edwards and General Wesley Clark are also polling within the margin of error against the President.
Bush's approval rating is also below 50% for the first time in his Presidency, but Americans still see him as a strong leader and more patriotic. He polls poorly, however, due to his handling of the economy, foreign affairs, Iraq, and health care.
It is going to be a close race in November, with Clark, Kerry, or Edwards standing a good chance to beat President Bush.
Comments
Though I hope he shall become vulnerable, the only real way for that to happen is for American voters to take off their "stupid caps" and start taking stock of what's happening around them. That probably entails watching less television and reading more newspapers and respectable (i.e. not Time or Newsweek) magazines.
IOW, "good luck".
Fran, at this point NO ONE has a "good chance" at beating Bush. Kerry has the BEST chance, I'll say that. But, he's going to be ruthlessly attacked on his HUGELY liberal voting record. He won't translate in the south and midwest, no matter who endorses him.
Show me that he has a 7 point lead next October...then we'll talk.
I didn't see you start a thread 3 weeks ago when Dean was doing the best against Bush among the Democrats.
Originally posted by SDW2001
I'm not discounting the poll, but I really don't think it means much.
You know, when there were polls showing that Bush was losing to a generic Democrat, you said that didn't mean anything, because the only polls that mean anything name specific Democrats. Now Bush is down to Kerry by about 8 points in all the polls, and you say that doesn't mean much. I think we're witnessing the shattering of an illusion.
These head-to-head match-ups are a lot less credible than Bush versus Unnamed Democrat. Right now, Kerry is leading nationally among Democrats. One should not be suprised he does the best against Bush...people in these polls are inclined to support their candidate and not support a rival Democratic candidate.
following that logic then bush is going to have his arse stomped?
Originally posted by billybobsky
following that logic then bush is going to have his arse stomped?
Probably not, since a Green party candidate has not emerged yet.
If Kerry is the nominee, Peter will run and I will support him if he gets on my state's ballot(or else stay home).
Fran, at this point NO ONE has a "good chance" at beating Bush. Kerry has the BEST chance, I'll say that. But, he's going to be ruthlessly attacked on his HUGELY liberal voting record. He won't translate in the south and midwest, no matter who endorses him.
easy to handle...i will write the speech:
"President Bush has been having his people try and attack my voting record. I will say two things about that.
One, I have always voted as I thought would best serve my constituents and would best serve my country and the American people. I stand by that record.
Two, I also think, in most situations, that being elected President brings most Presidents toward the center.There is a very good reason for this. When I am elected President I will represent ALL the people of this great country. I will not only represent the people who voted for me, but I will also work hard to represent the people who voted for the other Presidental canidates. That is something that has been missing for the last 4 years in Washington DC. We have had a Presidency that has ignored the more than 50% of voting americans who, in 2000, voted for the Democratic canidate. When I am elected I will not forget that I serve all the citizens of the United States, not just one party or one special interest group, but each and every one of the amazing, wonderful, varied people that make this country the greastest country in the world. Ask yourself, has this presidency represented you? If not, get out and make your voice heard. Thank you and please vote and God bless..."
g
edit: admittedly this will not win over the swds and scotts and trumpts of the world, but no democratic canidate is gonna win over the hard core right...it will pull the independants and might even pull some liberal repubs...
bush will pull no no no democrats...he hasn't once spoken for any democrats since taking office...
- This guy obviously lied to his electors (and ? by the way ? to the whole planet).
- That's becoming a fact day after day (thanks to D.Kay's honesty).
- 10.000+ (More ?) persons died because of that (Yes: Thats's a lot of souls !)
- And that's just an estimate since no-one really knows...
- ...and that's just civilian deads. Militaries are also human beings (but they are not counted).
- The US (leaders of the free world) lost all credibility. And that's the worst thing !!!
- Big Muscles != credibility.
This guy sucks.
And has to leave.
And go to Jail (via the TPI).
That seems to be 55.000 persons... dead. That's H U G E
Stop being blind... Trial this man. Be a honest democracy.
Article
Originally posted by SDW2001
I'm not discounting the poll, but I really don't think it means much. Bush has not yet even really started campaigning. Kerry has gotten all the press...and it influences the polls. And as far as a "big lead", that's just wrong. The lead is almost within the margin of error.
Fran, at this point NO ONE has a "good chance" at beating Bush. Kerry has the BEST chance, I'll say that. But, he's going to be ruthlessly attacked on his HUGELY liberal voting record. He won't translate in the south and midwest, no matter who endorses him.
Show me that he has a 7 point lead next October...then we'll talk.
SDW, the poll means Bush will lose to Kerry at this point in the race, Again, at this point, there's more than just a good chance to beat Bush: Kerry is actually projected to. That, of course, will change over the duration of the campaign. What's interesting is that Bush has already spent upwards of 30 million dollars running unopposed in the Republican primary. I think that's already more than what any individual Democrat has spent... Although, I think it's true that Bush's campaign has yet to really hit its stride. They have 170 million left to spend, after all.
From what I have been following on the Democratic side, these polls have never been close to predicting the winner with regard to percentage at all.
So in otherwords Bush could be REALLY down, or he might not be down at all.
Throughout the Democratic primary they have appeared to consistantly underestimate the showing of Kerry and have appeared to consistantly overestimate pretty much everyone else.
I think something has become very off about how they are selecting "likely voters" where they usually eliminate almost have the poll responses.
Just something to consider...
Nick
Originally posted by trumptman
Quick middle ground question to all parties involved.
From what I have been following on the Democratic side, these polls have never been close to predicting the winner with regard to percentage at all.
So in otherwords Bush could be REALLY down, or he might not be down at all.
The polls have been perfect predictors. The exit polls weren't that great, and that may be what you're talking about with Kerry being underestimated - the NH exit polls showed the race a lot closer than it turned out. But exit polls are different. They just have people catch voters coming out of the voting places, and they haven't got it down to a science like they have with the telephone surveys. The regular telephone polls nailed it within a couple points for each candidate in NH. And Iowa is different because people don't really vote, they switch around until they reach a threshold and then they can vote. So the polls for Iowa can't really be counted. But I'd bet if you looked at the polls for today they'd be within a few points of the actual votes.
Originally posted by Moogs
It shows how well he's doing with the 350 people (or whatever the number is) who were asked about him. Spread across a diverse populace of 300 million (although the number of registered voters is much lower), it means considerably less.
Somebody doesn't understand statistics.
Originally posted by ShawnJ
SDW, the poll means Bush will lose to Kerry at this point in the race, Again, at this point, there's more than just a good chance to beat Bush: Kerry is actually projected to. That, of course, will change over the duration of the campaign. What's interesting is that Bush has already spent upwards of 30 million dollars running unopposed in the Republican primary. I think that's already more than what any individual Democrat has spent... Although, I think it's true that Bush's campaign has yet to really hit its stride. They have 170 million left to spend, after all.
Dean tossed 40 million dollars away, remember?
The poll showed Bush's job approval rating at 49 percent among all the adults surveyed, the first time since he became president that his job approval has dipped below 50 percent. A month ago his rating was at 60 percent, as he enjoyed a spike in approval after the capture of Saddam Hussein.
From the CNN link Fran411 linked to.
It is terrible for the sitting POTUS to be facing sub 50% approval ratings in an election year.