Just did a quick-n-dirty analysis of the life span of a PowerBook G4. The
shortest time between intro and end-of-life is just over 6 months (the 550/667 TiBook--the one I have, of course). The longest was for its successor, the 867/1GHz TiBook at just over 10 months. I didn't look at the previous generations or the iBook for more datapoints...
The average is just over 8 months -- given that, we might expect speed bumps in a couple of months or so.
Major architectural changes seem to happen every 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 years.
Given that, I'd not count on a G5 any sooner than this summer.
Anyway, I am posting here the rest. I found an interesting and, I dare say, informative SNDF presentation from Motorola. It must certainly be well known to the people here, but I would like to cite something from the end:
Quote:
What did we we say last year about our view of the future say last year about our view of the future
? Performance, Power, interconnect and integration
? Process and architecture improvements will be able to achieve 3+ GHz
? Power targets will not change significantly and be at 10 watts or below
? Rapid IO will be the interconnect technology on all of our products
? Levels of integration will go up on what used to be stand alone
? SOC platforms will allow opportunities for customer logic on high
performance processors.
? What is the progress we are making to this vision?
It is interesting that they have a roadmap showing integrated host G4 processors for this year.
Finally:
Quote:
What does the Balanced Processor Look Like?
? So here is what we think
? We are putting a Dual core processor on our roadmap.
? Classic PPC with AltiVec
? Capable of going up to 2GHz
? At 1.5 GHz power dissipation of 25 Watts
? And it will have system integration on it
? DDRI and DDRII
? Advanced IO ? RapidIO
? General Purpose IO
25 Watts power dissipation at 1.5 GHz AND dual core? With DDR AND RapidIO? Looks very promising. But where is this chip? Their roadmap indicates it would happen this year.
So "dual core," this means two cores running at 1.5 GHz dissipating 25W? We need some techno-meisters in here to clarify this. It could be a great CPU, but the 970FX @2 GHz uses 24.5W according to early specs. Given that's a single-core chip, though...
So "dual core," this means two cores running at 1.5 GHz dissipating 25W?
That's what I get from the context. Two cores @ 1.5 GHz each, for 25 W total.
Quote:
It could be a great CPU, but the 970FX @2 GHz uses 24.5W according to early specs. Given that's a single-core chip, though...
The numbers are rather misleading. IBM and Motorola quote the power dissipation data in a different way. If I am not mistaken, 24.5W for the 970FX @2 GHz is typical power, susceptible to go up to 50 W (was that the exact value?). And this is only the processor without the monstrous system bus. That's why the idea of a SoC 970FX has been recently discussed in these boards.
Dual Core Moto G4s sound interesting, but do you think this makes sense for the PowerBooks? How can Apple release a dual-core G4 and then go back to a single-core G5 in only some month's time?
The Dual Core G4 (if it will ever be available) might still be a nice option for eMacs and iBooks.
I hope they would just sit tight until they can put a 970FX in it. Unless the 7447A appears in significant quantities within the next six months, I don't see (or rather, hope that it doesn't happen) another Motorola product going into the professional notebook line.
I think Smircle sums up very well the situation separating facts from speculation.
Quote:
Originally posted by fred_lj
Unless the 7447A appears in significant quantities within the next six months, I don't see (or rather, hope that it doesn't happen) another Motorola product going into the professional notebook line.
Yet, given the dark in the suitability of the 970FX for Powerbooks (well, IBM publicly said it can be used in notebooks, but the thin form factor of a Powerbook could be the source of issues), this (i.e. 7447A based Powerbook) is the most realistic scenario at this moment.
As for the adoption of a dual core G4 (or whatever else), if and when comes into the light of the day: I think that if ever Apple takes this path, that will mean that the future PPC generations would easily have low power dual core versions for notebooks and that at least one of the Powerbooks (say the 17"), will always be dual core. Just like the Power Macs (dual processor here, but dual core would be the mobile version of the dual processor concept).
Silly question if you ask me. I'd take a dual core G4 @ 1.5GHz over any of the current G5s. This woud especially be the case if the processor has its own memmory interface and is hitting the power points described.
Can you imagine just how responsive such a chip would make the PowerBooks or IMac replacements? If they implemented the G4's extended addressing all the better. Addressable memory would be a major concern, this is the only real advantage that the G5 has at the present.
Given the above and very low power usage I'd have to say go for it Apple. The reality of Motorola does indicate that the processor is going to be late by a year or two, so that does blunt the enthusasme for such a machine.
Dave
Quote:
Originally posted by Yankeedoodle
Dual Core Moto G4s sound interesting, but do you think this makes sense for the PowerBooks? How can Apple release a dual-core G4 and then go back to a single-core G5 in only some month's time?
The Dual Core G4 (if it will ever be available) might still be a nice option for eMacs and iBooks.
Personnally I don't care to much one way or the other. What I want is the best power disapation at around 1.8 GHz. I'm thinking a 1.8 GHz would give us a nice competitive machine, go with the lowest power processor in that performance range.
The fact that the 7447A has not been announced at that frequency range is a bit of a negative. I don't see a Powerbook revision running at 1.4 GHz, with either chip, as being worthwhile at all.
But that is me, and I see the current hardware as being a little long in the tooth.
Dave
Quote:
Originally posted by fred_lj
I hope they would just sit tight until they can put a 970FX in it. Unless the 7447A appears in significant quantities within the next six months, I don't see (or rather, hope that it doesn't happen) another Motorola product going into the professional notebook line.
Apple needs at least a 2.5GHz G4 to compete. Centrino is much faster than the G4 clock-for-clock and some say even faster than the G5 on a clock-normalized basis. Dothan, Centrino's sucessor will come this summer and have more L2 cache (2MB) and faster clockspeeds (2GHz+). The PowerBooks right now are simply pathetic.
Can those Centrino's or will that Donthan processor be able to support OS X? Nope, which means the PowerBook is not pathetic at all, it is much better. Plus, the PowerBook has incredible I/O. Just needs an update because its cycle has run its course.
...which means the PowerBook is not pathetic at all...
I think Existence's point is that the Powerbooks suffer in the processor sector. Of course the Powerbook is not pathetic as a package (we have to not forget the bundled OS AND software), but in raw processor power it is trounced by the Pentium-M. Simply, the performance chasm between the Pentium 4 and the G4, is propagating to the mobile space. As long as the G4 stagnates, this is unavoidable.
The Powerbook needs a G4 with drastic architectural changes to keep up and stay competitive, even in the immediate future. Or a completely new processor.
Do you people ever think that sometimes updates are ready a very long time before the time that they get introduced? I think that there may be some truth to it, because people can not afford to keep buying new computers every 6 months, there are probably equations that Apple marketing people use to project when the upgrade cycle of the user is. Sometimes, I think we lose sight of the fact that just because we yearn for more speed, we may be in a minority(not that we want speed but that we would buy a new computer just after buying one within 2 years)...and we may only notice this speed issue because we are so closely involved with computing.
Apple knows when the best time to release products is, for their bottom line. There are times where they wish they could have released things more quickly, there are probably also times where they hold releases because the market is not ready. Maybe most of the market is simply not ready to handle a new influx of machines and inventory, especially since hardcore users upgraded less than a year ago to the G5.
Apple needs at least a 2.5GHz G4 to compete. Centrino is much faster than the G4 clock-for-clock and some say even faster than the G5 on a clock-normalized basis.
Centrino microarchitecture
Motorola 745x microarchitecture
The G4's primary disadvantage is processor bus bandwidth and poor compilers. Even so, the G4 should be as good as the Centrino clock-for-clock. The Centrino is mostly a P6 microarchitecture (PPro, PII, PIII) with better processor bus bandwidth, better branch prediction, and excellent power usage features. Based on architecture alone, the G4 and PM should be able the same clock-for-clock.
Of course we all know what the problems are, G4s above 1.5 GHz won't be available for awhile, while PMs are available at 1.7 GHz now.
Quote:
Dothan, Centrino's sucessor will come this summer and have more L2 cache (2MB) and faster clockspeeds (2GHz+). The PowerBooks right now are simply pathetic.
I like the form factor. But yes, in terms of performance, either Apple has to get the G4 processor bus fixed or use a G5 to play in the benchmark wars.
As much as I want a new machine right now, I am still prepared to wait until the new tech stuff comes thru. I was just hoping that I could buy myself a nice birthday present today *sighs*
Comments
shortest time between intro and end-of-life is just over 6 months (the 550/667 TiBook--the one I have, of course). The longest was for its successor, the 867/1GHz TiBook at just over 10 months. I didn't look at the previous generations or the iBook for more datapoints...
The average is just over 8 months -- given that, we might expect speed bumps in a couple of months or so.
Major architectural changes seem to happen every 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 years.
Given that, I'd not count on a G5 any sooner than this summer.
I am frequently wrong, however.
Hopefully in my lifetime we see a G5 PowerBook...especially my lifetime, this summer, right before college begins for me.
Originally posted by KANE
[Edit] Also I must admit, half the fun with the Mac is you guys. There is no place like this in the Wintel world. I'm loving it here. And you.
Anyway, I am posting here the rest. I found an interesting and, I dare say, informative SNDF presentation from Motorola. It must certainly be well known to the people here, but I would like to cite something from the end:
What did we we say last year about our view of the future say last year about our view of the future
? Performance, Power, interconnect and integration
? Process and architecture improvements will be able to achieve 3+ GHz
? Power targets will not change significantly and be at 10 watts or below
? Rapid IO will be the interconnect technology on all of our products
? Levels of integration will go up on what used to be stand alone
processors
? Multi-core
? IO functionality
? Dedicated hardware assist units; Altivec, Messaging Units,
? SOC platforms will allow opportunities for customer logic on high
performance processors.
? What is the progress we are making to this vision?
It is interesting that they have a roadmap showing integrated host G4 processors for this year.
Finally:
What does the Balanced Processor Look Like?
? So here is what we think
? We are putting a Dual core processor on our roadmap.
? Classic PPC with AltiVec
? Capable of going up to 2GHz
? At 1.5 GHz power dissipation of 25 Watts
? And it will have system integration on it
? DDRI and DDRII
? Advanced IO ? RapidIO
? General Purpose IO
25 Watts power dissipation at 1.5 GHz AND dual core? With DDR AND RapidIO? Looks very promising. But where is this chip? Their roadmap indicates it would happen this year.
Originally posted by fred_lj
So "dual core," this means two cores running at 1.5 GHz dissipating 25W?
That's what I get from the context. Two cores @ 1.5 GHz each, for 25 W total.
It could be a great CPU, but the 970FX @2 GHz uses 24.5W according to early specs. Given that's a single-core chip, though...
The numbers are rather misleading. IBM and Motorola quote the power dissipation data in a different way. If I am not mistaken, 24.5W for the 970FX @2 GHz is typical power, susceptible to go up to 50 W (was that the exact value?). And this is only the processor without the monstrous system bus. That's why the idea of a SoC 970FX has been recently discussed in these boards.
The Dual Core G4 (if it will ever be available) might still be a nice option for eMacs and iBooks.
Originally posted by Yankeedoodle
How can Apple release a dual-core G4 and then go back to a single-core G5 in only some month's time?
Answer: they can't because no such chip is available, nor is it announced.
It's a pipe dream, people. The hard, cold facts is:
- G4's max out at 1.33Ghz for the next month,
- the 970 is way too hot,
- the 970FX's suitability for a laptop is unknown to us,
- the 750vx is vaporware,
- the _single_ core 7447A is expected for delivery in about 3 -6 month time, a dual core variant would take 12 month ++.
- the 44x is lacking a SIMD unit (and it's generally too slow)
- the rumored 3xx-variant is in concept stages as far as is known.
MY conclusions are: we either see a 970FX or a 7447A single core in the next revisions. Further revisions will most certainly move to 97x variants.
Originally posted by fred_lj
Unless the 7447A appears in significant quantities within the next six months, I don't see (or rather, hope that it doesn't happen) another Motorola product going into the professional notebook line.
Yet, given the dark in the suitability of the 970FX for Powerbooks (well, IBM publicly said it can be used in notebooks, but the thin form factor of a Powerbook could be the source of issues), this (i.e. 7447A based Powerbook) is the most realistic scenario at this moment.
As for the adoption of a dual core G4 (or whatever else), if and when comes into the light of the day: I think that if ever Apple takes this path, that will mean that the future PPC generations would easily have low power dual core versions for notebooks and that at least one of the Powerbooks (say the 17"), will always be dual core. Just like the Power Macs
Originally posted by Smircle
[snipperdesnip]
MY conclusions are: we either see a 970FX or a 7447A single core in the next revisions. Further revisions will most certainly move to 97x variants.
wow!! except for the "A" part of the 7447, i thought we came to this conclusion in september 2003 already:
next rev. powerbooks will sport the 90nm ppc 970 OR a faster ppc7447
However, how's this scenario for the many who are sitting on the PB G5 fence?
Keep the next Rev. PB G4 based but offset the disappointment by cutting the price.
Knock off $500 across the board, then introduce a top tiered and priced G5 PB late in 2004 or early 2005.
Can you imagine just how responsive such a chip would make the PowerBooks or IMac replacements? If they implemented the G4's extended addressing all the better. Addressable memory would be a major concern, this is the only real advantage that the G5 has at the present.
Given the above and very low power usage I'd have to say go for it Apple. The reality of Motorola does indicate that the processor is going to be late by a year or two, so that does blunt the enthusasme for such a machine.
Dave
Originally posted by Yankeedoodle
Dual Core Moto G4s sound interesting, but do you think this makes sense for the PowerBooks? How can Apple release a dual-core G4 and then go back to a single-core G5 in only some month's time?
The Dual Core G4 (if it will ever be available) might still be a nice option for eMacs and iBooks.
The fact that the 7447A has not been announced at that frequency range is a bit of a negative. I don't see a Powerbook revision running at 1.4 GHz, with either chip, as being worthwhile at all.
But that is me, and I see the current hardware as being a little long in the tooth.
Dave
Originally posted by fred_lj
I hope they would just sit tight until they can put a 970FX in it. Unless the 7447A appears in significant quantities within the next six months, I don't see (or rather, hope that it doesn't happen) another Motorola product going into the professional notebook line.
Originally posted by Messiahtosh
...which means the PowerBook is not pathetic at all...
I think Existence's point is that the Powerbooks suffer in the processor sector. Of course the Powerbook is not pathetic as a package (we have to not forget the bundled OS AND software), but in raw processor power it is trounced by the Pentium-M. Simply, the performance chasm between the Pentium 4 and the G4, is propagating to the mobile space. As long as the G4 stagnates, this is unavoidable.
The Powerbook needs a G4 with drastic architectural changes to keep up and stay competitive, even in the immediate future. Or a completely new processor.
Apple knows when the best time to release products is, for their bottom line. There are times where they wish they could have released things more quickly, there are probably also times where they hold releases because the market is not ready. Maybe most of the market is simply not ready to handle a new influx of machines and inventory, especially since hardcore users upgraded less than a year ago to the G5.
Originally posted by Existence
Apple needs at least a 2.5GHz G4 to compete. Centrino is much faster than the G4 clock-for-clock and some say even faster than the G5 on a clock-normalized basis.
Centrino microarchitecture
Motorola 745x microarchitecture
The G4's primary disadvantage is processor bus bandwidth and poor compilers. Even so, the G4 should be as good as the Centrino clock-for-clock. The Centrino is mostly a P6 microarchitecture (PPro, PII, PIII) with better processor bus bandwidth, better branch prediction, and excellent power usage features. Based on architecture alone, the G4 and PM should be able the same clock-for-clock.
Of course we all know what the problems are, G4s above 1.5 GHz won't be available for awhile, while PMs are available at 1.7 GHz now.
Dothan, Centrino's sucessor will come this summer and have more L2 cache (2MB) and faster clockspeeds (2GHz+). The PowerBooks right now are simply pathetic.
I like the form factor.