Put your gonads on the table ...

in General Discussion edited January 2014
OK, who's ready for official predictions?

Me, for starters. I've vacillated, mostly thinking that Bush would win again, but ... you know what? I reckon SDW will be eating crow come November, despite the passion and the laughies when you suggest that:

Kerry will win the nomination. And he'll win.


  • Reply 1 of 31
    rageousrageous Posts: 2,170member
    I wouldn't call a 50/50 chance at being right laying it on the line here...
  • Reply 2 of 31
    haraldharald Posts: 2,152member

    Originally posted by rageous

    I wouldn't call a 50/50 chance at being right laying it on the line here...

    That assumes chance.
  • Reply 3 of 31
    groveratgroverat Posts: 10,872member
  • Reply 4 of 31
    moogsmoogs Posts: 4,296member
    Followed closely by the apocalypse
  • Reply 5 of 31
    moogsmoogs Posts: 4,296member
    ...or maybe just four more years of digging the nation into a ditch.

    [damn double-posts]
  • Reply 6 of 31
    scottscott Posts: 7,431member
    Way too soon to try to predict. Anything could happen between now and my birthday.
  • Reply 7 of 31
    fran441fran441 Posts: 3,715member
    I predict that Bush will not win New Hampshire. In 2000, he won by 7000 votes but Nader received over 22,000. That won't happen this time, and will be enough to swing the election.
  • Reply 8 of 31

    Originally posted by Moogs

    ...or maybe just four more years of digging the nation into a ditch.

    [damn double-posts]

    a ditch implies some sort of long range plan and continuity...

    a hole, on the other hand...
  • Reply 9 of 31
    brussellbrussell Posts: 9,812member
    That election is impossible to call. And not only because we're so far away from it, but because I think this election is fundamentally different. I've read that polls show the US population is more polarized than ever before. Almost all liberals/Democrats have already decided they are going to vote against Bush, and almost all conservatives/Republicans have decided to vote for him. Usually there are more people crossing over both ways.

    So what that means is that this election, even more than in the past, is going to hinge on one or two million non-political swing voters. These people are the types that appear on Jay Leno's American history quizzes. They make up their minds in the last week, sometimes in the voting booth. They're barely aware that there's an election going on at all. Who knows what their votes are based on. God help us.

    My feeling is that gay marriage will be an issue, and that Bush will absolutely kill in the Bible belt, even more than usual. However, I think the economy will determine things in the midwest. Still poor job growth = Bush loses.

    As for my gonads, I'll say Bush loses, but that's more wishful thinking than anything.
  • Reply 10 of 31

    Originally posted by curiousuburb

    a ditch implies some sort of long range plan and continuity...

    a hole, on the other hand...

    Didn't someone say somewhere that Bush said/thought that we're now living in the End Times?
  • Reply 11 of 31

    And the end times thing, it's in the Bible, I don't have the exact verses now, but if I decide to stop being lazy later I'll look them up. It is pretty convincing.
  • Reply 12 of 31
    It is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY too early to make official predictions, at least ones that are more informed rather than wishful thinking. Ask me again in 6 months.
  • Reply 13 of 31
    Predictions huh? Ok...

    Reagan dies creating nostalgia for the grampa-like prez that Bush then exploits for his re-election bid.
  • Reply 14 of 31
  • Reply 15 of 31
    I think it will be a repeat of 2000, followed by American Civil War Part II.
  • Reply 16 of 31
    trumptmantrumptman Posts: 16,455member
    Here is my gonad laying, as it were.

    I predict Bush will win. I think he will win the popular vote this time and a few more electoral votes, but won't run away with the college. I am thinking that the Reform Party and Nadar party (since he isn't going to run for the greens) will still get enough votes to keep the winning candidates under 50%. So I'll call it 49%-46% Bush.

    Kerry really seemed to lock up Democratic voters in the primary. But he has had some serious fund-raising issues and doesn't seem to excite people very much. His campaign so far very much reminds me of Dole against Clinton in 1996. Dole tried everything he could to excite Republicans. But his own voting history, full of twists and turns and the compromises of the Senate, seemed to work against him. He also didn't seem to be a true supply-sider and while he did manage to gain the nomination and even offer some supply-side red meat in a tax cut, it just didn't seem to bring out the excitement in the party. This reminds me very much of Kerry not being a "true" anti-war candidate (he likely is ideologically, but his votes supported Bush) or true fair-trader, etc.

    There isn't a single way to "prove" this as it is just a prediction. Human interactions are interesting things and can't just be pulled with a level. The Democratic party is very energized, but Kerry hasn't seemed able to take advantage of that with regard to forming a good message or fund raising. I know he will raise a certain amount of money once he becomes the nominee, but people don't appear to just enjoy opening their pockets for him or doing things for him. The party faithful will do their duty and even do it with a smile, but in my view, Kerry doesn't excite them.

    I would say that a very large difference between this election and that 96 one is that both candidate are much more media savvy this round. I went to see a Dole speech when he came through California and I was astonished. It was amazing to me how bad Dole had managed to make himself look on camera. He suits were cut, and always seemed to fit in a way that made him look hunched over a bit and sort of small. When I met him in person he had very broad shoulders and had to stand about 6'3". I was totally shocked.

    Bush is constantly complained about as being a idiot by the left but he seems to constantly get what he wants. I think Bush practices a lot of anchor point management. You can see the Democrats finally catching this a bit when it goes wrong like in the jobs numbers. Kerry honestly doesn't even as being as good a candidate as Gore was to me. I don't know if I can quite put my finger on what it is about him yet, but he just comes across a bit like snow on the television.

  • Reply 17 of 31
    andersanders Posts: 6,523member
    Bush. Democrats will win 2008.
  • Reply 18 of 31
    moogsmoogs Posts: 4,296member
    If we get to 2008.

    Now that "Nadar" has decided to run (like the ass that he is), I have a hard time disagreeing with those who are picking Bush. Although who knows what might go down in the next few months. There may yet arise a whistle-blower from the inside, with some evidence of serious wrong-doing by the administration... unlikely but possible.

    After all, Dick Cheney is allowed to go hunting with members of the Supreme Court before they deliberate on all things Haliburton. And 60 renowned scientists (of whom 20 are nobel prize winners and several noted Republicans) can write an open letter demonstrating gross errors in judgement on the administration's part, but no one seems to notice.

    The administration holds some sway of the media as long as there is a "war on terrorism" going on. Would be unpatriotic to openly criticize in anything not labeled "editorial", right?
  • Reply 19 of 31
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