Apple's next killer product...
could be a home entertainment system.
In a post I made yesterday I mentioned that becoming a consumer electronics company (maybe selling digi cams/tvs/etc) would be a natural step for Apple.
It seems I'm not the only one who thinks this...
Some will see it as a distraction and they may have a point. Anything that helps Apple survive is welcome in my opinion.
In a post I made yesterday I mentioned that becoming a consumer electronics company (maybe selling digi cams/tvs/etc) would be a natural step for Apple.
It seems I'm not the only one who thinks this...
Some will see it as a distraction and they may have a point. Anything that helps Apple survive is welcome in my opinion.
Comments
Although many in the Mac community desire a TiVo-Killer (myself included), Apple has avoided television content like primordial mammals avoided the dinosaurs. The general mindset of Apple is to build and market to prosumers (both professional and amateur) as opposed to strictly consumers of mass market products. The iPod/iTMS is significant because it takes the music mass media head-on.
Secondly, PVRs are reaching a commodity level. Tivo gave the technology mass appeal but didn't secure it, so now every cable company is bundling a version of their own. Tivo, in order to survive, is going to insert advertisment (the very thing that the Tivo PVRs allowed one to avoid) during fast-forwards. (Shorter: They're doomed; this is their last straw).
I do forsee a simpler device, an Airport Express for Video discussed elsewhere on the forums, as a more likely alternative but I think this may require Tiger for it's integration of H.264.
The point is still to drive Apple computer sales.
Screed
And, of course, analysts freely indulge in wishful thinking as well. Anyone remember the speculation around Columbus, which turned out to be the original iMac?
Only Steve knows for certain.
But, I would buy an apple media server and large flat screen!
who the hell thinks Apple will fail at this point? What kind of ignoramus jackass would think Apple is doomed to failure NOW?
Anyone else see that analyst's article recently? Apple's projected to sell 25,000,000 iPODS/YEAR in 2005!!
Even at $250 each (the cost of the mini) that's $6.25 BILLION a year in revenues JUST from iPods.
I think it's likely Apple, if faced with confrontation for the TV business, will just buy Elgato and create an iTV-like product with video outputs.
Maybe just have it on a really long firewire cable so you can have your computer in one room and the eyetv in another
You know Apple didn't even design/produce most of the iPod parts, right? it was a totally different company.
edit: Btw someone mentioned Apple screens... Well since you don't need that kind of resolution, why not get an optoma 50" DLP projection TV for $2900 including shipping!? It's cheaper, bigger, and faster to refresh.
But what is interesting is that the Register article (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/12...tal_appliance/) does not so much talk about convergence for convergence sake, it talks about entertainment for entertainment's sake. The PC won't become the living room digital hub since it is "too complicated and unstable." That still goes for Macs even though they are very close. Tiger will make some things easier, like searches and interface enhancements, but anything that runs on current file systems and applications is too much for home entertainment.
I think they, even though they are just Wall Streeters, have the target simplified in their own, non-techie way. They assume that the digital hub will also run TV and movies and games. They assume that MS, Sony and Apple are the only ones who can really do the job.
So how can that work if Jobs hates TV. Well it can't work. No one is going to run their TV from a Mac or a PC. They will run their TV from their TV and it is the TV that will be smart, not the PC that will be dumbed down.
So now the question is...will the TV be run by the XBox or PlayStation? I don't think so. Both are also too "complicated and unstable." They both take too long to start up, etc.
So what could/should Apple do? Make an ENTERTAINMENT division...not formally at first, but like the iPod probably had its own workgroup that became a division so this be. Admit to "entertainment"; take up the Pixar flag and accept "Entertainment" as legitimate. Then design the simplest most minimalistic device (server with i/o) that becomes your iPod for your video entertainment. Use the idea behind the Xserves but banish the term "server" from anywhere near the device. Let it talk to the Mac, but it doesn't have to run off the Mac - 'a la iPod.
You may think that PVR's are now commodities, well yeah, but so are cars and mp3's and Apple can still find ways to redefine our interface with commodities.
Everyone of those people who buy an iPod, but don't yet have a Mac, would JUMP on the chance to buy an iTV or iVideoCenter before they would by an Apple computer. The Mac is still the digital hub, but the digital life will evolve from the rim to the hub, not the other way around. The audio digital life evolved from the iPod, not the Mac....the Mac just made the iPod so much easier and better!
PS Notice that I said iVideoCenter and not iStereo/Audio/TV/Game Center. Apple would need to keep the video spokes separate from the iPod and audio for now. Too much convergence would be bad. I think the Register article infers that as well since Merrill Lynch only specified TV's as entertainment.
Other Macs in the household could also access the iPod for music sharing, photo sharing, and file backup.
A wireless dock like this might cost just a bit more than an AirPort Express. Maybe a future iPod or software update for existing iPod photo units could support H.264 video.
I'd sure like to see Apple make a home media server with built-in PVR, though.
Need firewire 400 for that at LEAST.
Show me commercial product that does that, and I'll be very surprised.
Originally posted by MacGregor
First of all I think the specific "home server" that Merrill Lynch talks about should be its own thread rather than the wide open title of "killer product..."
My topic thread Apple iServe home server is the is the Apple home entertainment server thread you are looking for.
Originally posted by slughead
Personally I'd never do wireless video unless it could do lossless HDTV 1080p.
Where would you find lossless HD source material for this to even be a concern?
Current HD broadcasts all use lossy compression and proposed standards for HD discs also use lossy compression. Video compression usually runs as high as 20:1 or 30:1, meaning that without lossy compression you'd need to find the bandwidth and storage for as much as 30 times the data.
If you take it for granted that your source material is going to be compressed in a lossy manner, the only issue to worry about with wireless bandwidth is whether or not additional compression would be needed, or if a decompress/recompress cycle would be invoked somewhere along the line, which can do nasty things to lossily compressed signals.
Current wireless like 802.11g is a little feeble for HD. I think you might just squeeze in one HD signal (1080p would be okay, if it's only 24fps like a movie) under optimal signal conditions, but it would hog nearly all of your bandwidth and glitch if anything on your network started contending for bandwith.
The hard part was making their iPod and iLife components easy to use.
There are only a few missing pieces.
D-ILA projector, 42 inch LCD.
Off air/cable card, optical fiber to home, Apple satellite.
Hardware home server / cable box/ Apple satellite.
OSX home server.
Pervasive 20" iMacs as TV / terminals.
Audio and speakers?
Partner with Meridian, Bang & Olufsen, Nagra, Krell and/or Harman.
Originally posted by Programmer
My take on it is still that Apple should to this right. They've gone part way with the AirPort Express. This could be the AVExpress (TM). The keys are to make it inexpensive, build it for the future, and build on the digital hub (i.e. the Mac... of course they'd support the PC, but the Mac experience would be far superior).
Not sure what you mean by "build on the digital hub." Do you mean make the thing run the Mac OS? If so, I would disagree. That would make it way too slow. I'd rather see something like a Microkernel-based QNX or something fast and realtime compliant.
Or use the iPod OS - it really only needs to have Quicktime support and a simple menuing UI like the iPod has already. Apple does UIs well (Jef Raskin disagrees, I don't). Do you think the iPod sells well because of looks? Heck no, it has an extraordinarily simple interface and function. Put that on the device you referenced and that would be great. I agree with MacGregor above - his points are right on. This needs to be a separate, single-purpose device, like the iPod.
Originally posted by shetline
Current wireless like 802.11g is a little feeble for HD. I think you might just squeeze in one HD signal (1080p would be okay, if it's only 24fps like a movie) under optimal signal conditions, but it would hog nearly all of your bandwidth and glitch if anything on your network started contending for bandwith.
Lossless source? how about my dvi port
Not to mention, as you said, even when compressed, HD 1080p is nearly impossible on 802.11g.
And further more who cares about wireless anyway? Oh great so I get more packetloss, longer pings, riskier transactions, and lower speeds? Sign me up!
Originally posted by shawk
Perhaps, the iPod and iLife were the start of a bottom to top marketing strategy for a complete home information and media acquisition system.
The hard part was making their iPod and iLife components easy to use.
There are only a few missing pieces.
D-ILA projector, 42 inch LCD.
Off air/cable card, optical fiber to home, Apple satellite.
Hardware home server / cable box/ Apple satellite.
OSX home server.
Pervasive 20" iMacs as TV / terminals.
Audio and speakers?
Partner with Meridian, Bang & Olufsen, Nagra, Krell and/or Harman.
In 2112 perhaps we will see such things....
But, these were the same guys who gave Apple a sell rating at $11/share because "they had no new products in the pipeline."
That very same day, Apple released the 12" Powerbook, the 17" Powerbook, Keynote, Safari, etc. The same day.
ML is notoriously clueless.
Originally posted by BWhaler
I hate to burst your bubbles...
But, these were the same guys who gave Apple a sell rating at $11/share because "they had no new products in the pipeline."
That very same day, Apple released the 12" Powerbook, the 17" Powerbook, Keynote, Safari, etc. The same day.
ML is notoriously clueless.
Burst away!
That said, the idea posted above is not a bad one - whether Merryl Grynch started it or not.
- There are about 30 million broadband connections and growing. About 75% are cable and 15% ADSL. New fiber optic services will be coming online soon with speeds of 5, 15, and 30Mbits/s.
- 85% of movie rentals are from movie rental stores.
- 5% of movie rentals are from online services like NetFlix.
- 5% are pay per view.
- 5% of people wait for movies to show up on TV.
My guess is that people would rent or buy movies at home if it were simple, easy, and if the service had no monthly fee. If Apple had a box that'd be at home in the family room, here are the features it should have:Simple consumer electronics design like a PVR or DVD player. Internal HD, CPU, GPU, RAM, SuperDrive, AirPort Extreme card, Bluetooth. Ethernet port for broadband connection; S-Video, component video, composite video jacks; S/PDIF and RCA audio jacks; FireWire port, USB 2.0 port.
This box would work with a Mac or PC via AirPort and an interface similar to the iTMS or without a computer using a TV interface with a TV version of the iMovies store. You can view previews of fliks, see poster art, read reviews, download a movie as a rental that'll last for 3 days or buy the movie and burn it to a DVD. You could even print DVD artwork directly onto the DVD disc with the right printer and print out the box art.
Someone will do this one of these days and I hope it'll be Apple.
Originally posted by Rolo
... The next killer product could be a movie download service similar to the iTMS... Someone will do this one of these days and I hope it'll be Apple.
Rolo, you should check out apple-x.net's article that I linked to in the iServe topic thread.
Quote from the apple-x.net article:
The Next Great Thing
Let?s take Steve Jobs? logic concerning the music business and apply it to the next big thing which will be IP/TV, commonly referred to as i-TV. In this year?s WWDC Keynote, Steve Jobs placed extraordinary emphasis on Apple?s next iteration of QuickTime and the new MPEG-4 component contained therein known as Part-10 or H.264. He pointed to the fact that this new open standard was being adopted into next generation DVD players and so on and so forth. Next came Frank Casanova?s demo of H.264 in action playing the ?Phantom of the Opera? movie trailer. Frank Casanova concluded his segment by emphatically stating that ?this codec changes everything". In part, it will change everything because H.264 allows content to be streamed to a wide range of digital devices, be it an on-stage Jumbo screen or 3G phone, as Frank demonstrated.
Apple, the Internet Company
Apple?s commitment to open-standards and next generation technologies will play a central role in delivering consistent quality of service (QoS) streaming video and data services to the forthcoming IP/TV market serving both consumer and pro markets alike. With Apple?s QuickTime TV Network Platform going LIVE in 2005, we could begin to understand a statement that Steve Jobs made back in January 2000 that provides us with the big picture:
"We believe Apple will be one of the ten most profitable Internet companies in the next ten years.?