Piper Jaffray: iPod shuffle, Mac mini exceeding Apple's expectations
In a research note sent to clients earlier this week, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said that Apple's retail stores are struggling to keep up with demand for its new Mac mini and iPod shuffle products.
In a survey of all 98 of Apple's U.S.-based retail stores, the analyst said he found virtually 'no supply' of the new products.
"We believe initial demand for the Mac mini and the iPod shuffle has exceeded what Apple had been expecting," Munster said. In his report, he noted that the average waiting list for the Mac mini was approximately 18 people per store, while the iPod shuffle wait list extended to 120 customers per store.
"The majority of stores have no idea when they will receive product," Munster added. "Those stores that do have an indication of when they will receive product suggested that limited quantities of the Mac mini and iPod shuffle will be in stock within 2 weeks."
Munster said that most Apple retail stores expected to have ample supply of both products by the end of February. However, he said that 'virtually every Apple store we spoke to' suggested that customers place orders for the Mac mini and iPod shuffle online instead of adding their names to an in-store waiting list.
Speaking to AppleInsider anonymously, reliable sources on Tuesday quoted Apple inventory and sell-through data which shows that, over the last week, wait times for the Mac mini have increased from 3 days to approximately 3 weeks. Meanwhile, the same data shows that the wait time for an iPod shuffle has surged from 4 days to more than 4 weeks.
In a survey of all 98 of Apple's U.S.-based retail stores, the analyst said he found virtually 'no supply' of the new products.
"We believe initial demand for the Mac mini and the iPod shuffle has exceeded what Apple had been expecting," Munster said. In his report, he noted that the average waiting list for the Mac mini was approximately 18 people per store, while the iPod shuffle wait list extended to 120 customers per store.
"The majority of stores have no idea when they will receive product," Munster added. "Those stores that do have an indication of when they will receive product suggested that limited quantities of the Mac mini and iPod shuffle will be in stock within 2 weeks."
Munster said that most Apple retail stores expected to have ample supply of both products by the end of February. However, he said that 'virtually every Apple store we spoke to' suggested that customers place orders for the Mac mini and iPod shuffle online instead of adding their names to an in-store waiting list.
Speaking to AppleInsider anonymously, reliable sources on Tuesday quoted Apple inventory and sell-through data which shows that, over the last week, wait times for the Mac mini have increased from 3 days to approximately 3 weeks. Meanwhile, the same data shows that the wait time for an iPod shuffle has surged from 4 days to more than 4 weeks.
Comments
HMurchison Spunknall & Willard. 2005
Hmmm... Has Apple stock ever split before? Are they keen on that sort of thing?
We have the best OS ( lookin forward to Tiger )
We have the best User Experience ( Mac OS X, iPod-mini-shuffle, etc)
We have the best technology ( CoreImage/video, Spotlight, QT, etc)
We have the best Apps (DVD Pro, FCP, Motion etc)
We are rock solid and stable
And we have the power ( PPC970fx alias G5 and we're awaiting G6..)
Now we'll finally spread the user-base.
PC-users, don't wait for Longhorn - move to Mac and you will experience that the future's bright !!
Originally posted by Jwink3101
I have to say that i think Apple should have been more prepared. They have HUGE sums of money in the bank. They could have put a chuck of that into production.You would think they would have learned from the iPod mini
You could say that, but if we're speaking of Mac mini then don't forget what a disaster the Cube was. ( I always thought that it was ahead of is't time and I asume that it was right to think so)
It's quite normal to calculate a margin but you can NEVER predict the market.
As a mather of fact, they builded 100.000 units before the keynote. That's a confortable margin to me. But as I was saying, you can never predict the succesness of a product. Who would have thougthed that those 100.000 would have been sold in 10 days !? nobody I guess.
Eric
Originally posted by aplnub
It will be 6 days tomorrow and my 12" iBook still hasn't shipped. I think they are behind on everything.
Eric
order a pc with Dell and you'll have the same thing. About 10 days before you got it.
Most PC manufactures have this kind of delay. (HP, Acer, IBM etc)
But I hope it doesn't take too long for you
I know it can be frustrating but think (different ;-)) about it, you WILL have one !!!
You lucky man !
:-)
Originally posted by Jwink3101
I have to say that i think Apple should have been more prepared. They have HUGE sums of money in the bank. They could have put a chuck of that into production.You would think they would have learned from the iPod mini
Another problem with building an inventory up to large before release is the increased chance of loosing the initial suprise of the release, and tipping off your competators, and what do you do with that extra stock if the demand does not meet your expectations? It is a gamble at best. Apple has had problems in the past building capacity for one product release only to see orders come out lower than expectations while orders for a different product are higher than expected and they get bad press becouse they can't meet those orders.
Originally posted by Tuttle
. . . Any predictions for the this quarter's total sales?
On January 13th In a Future Hardware thread "Mac Mini Selling like iPods?" I made the following prediction and stick with it:
"Just so there is no misunderstanding, I was saying Mac mini sales should top the million mark each quarter. The Mac mini will outsell all other Macs combined, IMO BTW."
The upshot of that would be to double Apple's market share, approximately. Of course this depends on Apple being able to keep up with demand and eliminating the waiting list. People walk into CompUSA to buy a computer. If they are Windows users thinking of switching, and they cannot walk out with a Mac mini, they might just buy an HP or something.
The Mac mini isn't a cube. Costing almost 1/3 as much and sold as a commodity, they need to produce it like one.
Why would you raise your target price for Apple stock, when the evidence is that they can't produce enough to grow their revenue much this quarter?
Software sales should be particularly good, given the introduction of iLife and iWork this quarter. And, software is always a high-margin product.
With regards to the Mac mini - while it may be priced similar to a commodity electronic item, there's a difference: You can't get a substitute product running OS X anywhere else at the price point from another manufacturer, unlike most other electronics where any number off vendors may make the same type of product. So, while people may not be happy, if they're going to switch or add, it will likely happen regardless of waiting time.
Also, remember: Profits are the key, not revenues. Revenues mean jack if you're not making any profit margin on them, and Apple still maintains reasonable margins on the Mac mini and iPod Shuffle.
Originally posted by laurent.g
order a pc with Dell and you'll have the same thing. About 10 days before you got it.
Most PC manufactures have this kind of delay. (HP, Acer, IBM etc)
Yeah, but Apple regularly under deliver in this area ( place an area on a popular product, and get it pushed out repeatedly ). I ordered a Dell just a few weeks ago. They estimated it would be 14 days, it shipped the next day, and I had a day after that. Not normal, but very nice.
Originally posted by Guartho
C'mon... split baby split!
Hmmm... Has Apple stock ever split before? Are they keen on that sort of thing?
AAPL spilt in 1987 and 2000 as you can see from this graph. I was an investor back in 2000 (bought my first AAPL in 1997 for 7$ a share (14$ pre-split)). Unfortunately AAPL tanked not long after the split.
Anyhow, I doubt they will split before it reaches at least 120$ or higher.
Originally posted by ipodandimac
yes, i am the dumbass who sold his stock a while back.
Me too. I sold a couple hundred shares at $44 back in October-ish, IIRC. Fortunately, I kept 50 shares. Very tempting to get in deeper now that Apple has gone from Wall Street's whipping boy to darling. I just with they'd pay a dividend.
- Jasen.