Firm weighs in on Apple's March quarter, future guidance
Financial research firm PiperJaffray on Monday weighed in on Apple's March quarter while offering a preview of quarters to come.
Based on a recent analysis of Apple's retail channels the firm expects slight upside to Wall Street estimates of 24 cents per share on revenues of $3.17B.
However, PiperJaffray cautions that the Street estimates for iPod unit shipments have become over-aggressive due to activities seen from component suppliers during the quarter.
"While clearly a critical piece of the overall picture, due to iPod shuffle supply inconsistencies in the quarter, we believe it is prudent to focus on overall March quarter results and June guidance," Senior Analyst Gene Munster wrote in research report released to clients on Monday.
The analyst said checks with 20 Apple specialist VARs offered confidence that demand for Apple's key products -- namely iMac, Powerbook, Mac mini, and various versions of the iPod -- were solid during the quarter, with the exception of the Power Mac G5.
"This was the most positive we have heard the channel in the last 3 quarters, with 35% expecting March quarter above
plan," Munster said. "Any complaints were primarily related to lack of supply of Mac mini and iPod shuffle and weak sales of Power Mac."
For the June quarter, PiperJaffray expects Apple guidance will be above Street consensus of 23 cents on $3.20B in revenue, based on continued strong demand being met by more consistent supply of the company's most popular products.
Looking further down the line, the firm said Apple's domination in digital music will play a critical part in its success story, but should not be seen as the only potential growth avenue for the company.
"Indirectly, we expect iPod to be a foundation for growth in other parts of Apple's business," Munster wrote. "We expect that by the end of CY05 more than 30 million iPods will have shipped, providing Apple with a greater scope of awareness for various products."
PiperJaffray maintained its "outperform" rating on Apple with a price target of $50 per share.
Based on a recent analysis of Apple's retail channels the firm expects slight upside to Wall Street estimates of 24 cents per share on revenues of $3.17B.
However, PiperJaffray cautions that the Street estimates for iPod unit shipments have become over-aggressive due to activities seen from component suppliers during the quarter.
"While clearly a critical piece of the overall picture, due to iPod shuffle supply inconsistencies in the quarter, we believe it is prudent to focus on overall March quarter results and June guidance," Senior Analyst Gene Munster wrote in research report released to clients on Monday.
The analyst said checks with 20 Apple specialist VARs offered confidence that demand for Apple's key products -- namely iMac, Powerbook, Mac mini, and various versions of the iPod -- were solid during the quarter, with the exception of the Power Mac G5.
"This was the most positive we have heard the channel in the last 3 quarters, with 35% expecting March quarter above
plan," Munster said. "Any complaints were primarily related to lack of supply of Mac mini and iPod shuffle and weak sales of Power Mac."
For the June quarter, PiperJaffray expects Apple guidance will be above Street consensus of 23 cents on $3.20B in revenue, based on continued strong demand being met by more consistent supply of the company's most popular products.
Looking further down the line, the firm said Apple's domination in digital music will play a critical part in its success story, but should not be seen as the only potential growth avenue for the company.
"Indirectly, we expect iPod to be a foundation for growth in other parts of Apple's business," Munster wrote. "We expect that by the end of CY05 more than 30 million iPods will have shipped, providing Apple with a greater scope of awareness for various products."
PiperJaffray maintained its "outperform" rating on Apple with a price target of $50 per share.
Comments
Jeez, and I thought Apple ran out of stupid names for products and services
Originally posted by Louzer
Geesh, how about some guidance on when Tiger will be announced or released? The rumor of it going GM 10 days ago seems less and less believable, with nary a word from Apple (they usually pre-announce a couple of weeks before delivery, which implies delivery is a couple of weeks away at least).
Build 8A428 is GM. It will be announced within the next two weeks. When we're positive, we'll make a post. In the meantime, and based on several reports, the 18th appears to be a strong candidate.
Kasper
Originally posted by ZO
you can't go wrong listening to the advice of a research firm called "PiperJaffray"
Jeez, and I thought Apple ran out of stupid names for products and services
I'll cut you slack since your claim is you live in Paris. PiperJaffray Inc., to be precise is a very large Investment Firm, ala Merrill Lynch, Edward Jones or a SmithBarney.
If you haven't heard of Edward Jones then you really know jack about the US Investment Markets.
Originally posted by Louzer
Geesh, how about some guidance on when Tiger will be announced or released? The rumor of it going GM 10 days ago seems less and less believable, with nary a word from Apple (they usually pre-announce a couple of weeks before delivery, which implies delivery is a couple of weeks away at least).
You've been told since last June to expect Tiger in the first half of 2005, meaning "by June 2005." Any disappointment you may have is from believing rumors, which is your fault. Don't be mad at Apple.
Originally posted by mdriftmeyer
I'll cut you slack since your claim is you live in Paris. PiperJaffray Inc., to be precise is a very large Investment Firm, ala Merrill Lynch, Edward Jones or a SmithBarney.
If you haven't heard of Edward Jones then you really know jack about the US Investment Markets.
None of which makes the name any less or more dumb.
Originally posted by schmidm77
Why the hell doesn't Apple update their power macs more often? Twice a year does not cut it in the computer industry. They deserve sluggish sales in my opinion.
Twice a year? Since when? In the last year, we've seen new models announced at WWDC (pretty sure it was at WWDC, or around there), with the 2.5GHz model not even released until August (all two of them). They technically 'updated' their line in the fall by adding the single processor 1.8GHz machines, but I can't call that an update, they just stuck in a cheap entry in their existing line. The rest stayed right where they are, 10 months later.
But its not a big deal. As i've been told, if you buy one today it'll be plenty fast. Who cares if it keeps seeming like Apple's falling farther and farther behind the Wintel crowd again (and, no, I'm not talking GHz, I'm talking everything else). Hell, Apple can't even figure out how to make a tower that's like 2 feet tall and hold more than one optical and two hard drives. If you got a PC at the same size, you'd be sticking twice as much, if not three times, in there.
What I'm getting at is, Can anyone give me some advise on how to get started? I don't want to make a career out of the stock market and following every single ticker line, but I would like to show my confidence in a few companies like Apple.
I'll be going to the library and trying to find a couple "For Dummies" books on the stock market, but can anyone here point me in the right direction so that I can dive in with Apple when the right time presents itself. I don't want to be left doing what I have been doing, looking back at the last few years when their stock was around $12-20 a share and regretting that I didn't know how to jump in there.
Originally posted by DefJef
I've been following Apple for the past five years since I got my iMac 500. Ever since then, when I fell in love with them, I've wanted to invest money into the company. The problem is that I have absolutely no idea how to do that. I'm 21 years old, my parents have never invested in anything (although they've always said "You know Company X would be the thing to invest in"), and they don't know where to start either.
What I'm getting at is, Can anyone give me some advise on how to get started? I don't want to make a career out of the stock market and following every single ticker line, but I would like to show my confidence in a few companies like Apple.
I'll be going to the library and trying to find a couple "For Dummies" books on the stock market, but can anyone here point me in the right direction so that I can dive in with Apple when the right time presents itself. I don't want to be left doing what I have been doing, looking back at the last few years when their stock was around $12-20 a share and regretting that I didn't know how to jump in there.
Go to http://www.scottrade.com/. there you will find what you need to get started. They feature $7 trades online. The catch is that you have to have sufficient $$ to get started. A rule of thumb is enough $$ for 100 shares.
Unless you have a lot of money to start out with, buying just one stock probably isn't the best way to start out, as it won't get you diversified at all. To get more familiar with the markets and different investment options, Morningstar's investing classroom may be a good place to get started.
http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/Classroom.html
Originally posted by DefJef
I've been following Apple for the past five years since I got my iMac 500. Ever since then, when I fell in love with them, I've wanted to invest money into the company. The problem is that I have absolutely no idea how to do that. I'm 21 years old, my parents have never invested in anything (although they've always said "You know Company X would be the thing to invest in"), and they don't know where to start either.
What I'm getting at is, Can anyone give me some advise on how to get started? I don't want to make a career out of the stock market and following every single ticker line, but I would like to show my confidence in a few companies like Apple.
I'll be going to the library and trying to find a couple "For Dummies" books on the stock market, but can anyone here point me in the right direction so that I can dive in with Apple when the right time presents itself. I don't want to be left doing what I have been doing, looking back at the last few years when their stock was around $12-20 a share and regretting that I didn't know how to jump in there.
go ahead and do what you like, but IMO you missed the boat with apple. the stock will do ok, but you're not going to see significant gains in any remotely short term, and it's a very pricey buy-in right now.
Your best bet is to find a stock that is something that is priced below what its worth and expected to rise. Avoid the Pinksheets/pennystocks or any stock someone recommends. Do your own reaserch.
BTW Powemac G5s are selling poorly because they are behind the curve (no PCIe, base models ship with 256K and low end videocards)
1800+ for 256K and a cheap videocard for is too much to ask.
EDIT - whoops, edited instead of replied. What I erased was me telling people to buy the stock back in 2005.
To ipodandimac and hugodrax:
I realize that I may have missed my opportunity to make quick money with Apple, as I alluded to in my original post. My questioning of trading was so that I don't miss out again. Seeing as how Appleinsider has been publishing a lot of information about how stock analysts perceive Apple's value, I decided to ask those that are closest to what I'm interested in.
For anyone who cares to better understand my situation; I probably won't have enough money to begin investing in anything for a while, but that's why I ask now? so that I can be prepared when I've got the money to drop. As far as when and if the time presents itself to directly invest in Apple, I would be investing for the long haul. I'm confident in the company and I expect them to be even more successful in the years to come.
Next years earnings x P/E of 20 = $260
plus $45/share in cash.
= $300/share.
However, I would not buy any stocks right now, because I think that the stock market is going to crash in the spring sometime.