Not particularly for Farmer. I detest analysts in general.
Quote:
Merril Lynch doesn't have a net revenue of $22 billion by asking Fanboys where to spend their money. 'Pretty talk of financial analysts' this is not.
Having been convicted of certain crimes, it is hard to say how ML makes its money. They may be making money using as yet undiscovered frauds. Also, your metric of $22B in revenue is irrelevant. On how much invested capital was this revenue generated? How does that rate of return compare with other institutions and individual investor over the same time frame? Obviously, these stats must be pathetic or else you would have mentioned them.
Quote:
I suppose you would also recommend: Berkshire Hathaway, Quiksilver, McDonalds, Microsoft, Nokia etc.... Sorry, You've missed the moneymakin'.
You must be illiterate. I said the only stock I follow is Apple since I am a self-styled expert on the company. Your list of companies made me laugh. McDonald's is clearly the worst-tasting food among all of the fast-foods, Microsoft makes the lowest-quality software in the business and Nokia blew its commanding lead in cell phones by abandoning innovation. If I gave a shit about those companies, I'd be bearish on all of them predicting eventual bankruptcy for all of them in the long run.
Pretty bold thing to tell a mod. Are you sure you are ready to post here?
First of all what he is saying is that the current stock price already reflects a very positive picture of Apple in the next couple of years and that he share that picture. He don´t talk about losing or even stalling marked share. He is only pointing out that it is very unlikely that the growth of marked share will exceed what the stock price is reflecting.
But lets take your arguments one by one.
Vista: "Farmer also waved caution at the upcoming Intel transition and launch of Microsoft's Vista operating system, two events that could possible hold back buyers and prevent Mac market share gains"
Mark the words "could possible". Every upgrade of Windows since 98 have had the legacy of the previous system as well as new features. OS X and Windows are getting more and more like each other while Windows is still easiest to use for the average person for the sole reason that they are used to it. Its quite reasonable to think that users that is tempted to switch but haven´t done it will see Vista as 90% Mac OS X and say thats good enough. If MS didn´t release Vista then Apple would be able to win over even more people.
Intel: Note the words "hold back buyers". Yes it will hold back me and most people I know. Each time one of the mac centric news sites ask their users if they would buy a first generation of a new Mac far the majority say no. They want the children's disease sorted out before buying. This time its a new processor, an OS on a new platform and a lot of programs not recompiled. It WILL hold especially professional buyers back until generation two or three and all their programs have been recompiled and they can be sure everything works smoothly. That doesn´t mean that the marked share won´t grow. Just that there is factors that "could possible" hold it back to reach a even higher plateau.
iPod: you say: "And as the buyers of new iPods levels off, veteran iPod owners will be buying replacement iPods, whether it is because their first ones broke or they like the new features on new models." which in no way contradicts Farmers argument. He is expecting that the iPod sale will more than double in the next two years.
Yeah, how dare an analyst say bad things about apple. Bad analyst! Bad!
Not exactly. How dare an analyst say stupid bad things about Apple! I complain when analysts say stupid, good things about Apple, too. I remember when some analyst claimed they knew how many iPods Apple was going to sell in the next year with a precision of four significant digits. It was something like 14,720,000. Why didn't they just say "about 15 million?" It was just pompous to claim such a gift of prophecy. So, if an analyst feels the need to open his or her piehole, they'd better make some solid arguments.
Quote:
Oh, and how does early reactions to Vista help Apple? People will just stay with their current OS/computer. They aren't likely to just dump the whole thing to go mac just because Vista is a yawner.
Man, this is getting tiresome. Do I have to connect-the-dots for you people all the time? Frustration with Windows is palpable. Especially with the various types of malware and how the bad guys seem to always be a step or two ahead of the "good" guys. The fact that Vista is just a fresh paint job on Windows NT (2000, XP) and that viruses for the preview are already in the wild must be a real disappointment to those who have been plagued by Windows' many vulnerabilities. Apple is gaining customers from Windows users who don't want to hassle with Microsoft's incompetence and arrogance. The early reactions to Vista reveal that the nightmare is not going to end anytime soon, thus, a move to the Mac is a wise one.
The Intel transition will only help Apple's market share. Early reactions to Vista are a giant BFD. It's well-known that Vista is not much different from XP and is still plagued by The Registry, the playground of malware authors.
And as the buyers of new iPods levels off, veteran iPod owners will be buying replacement iPods, whether it is because their first ones broke or they like the new features on new models.
Stupid shallow analysis. Richard Farmer ought to pay attention to his name and hop on a tractor instead of slandering Apple.
If you disagree with this analysis, buy Apple share now. Granted to this analysis, the price of the Apple's share droped. If you are confident in the future of Apple, it looks like a great bargain.
If you disagree with this analysis, buy Apple share now. Granted to this analysis, the price of the Apple's share droped. If you are confident in the future of Apple, it looks like a great bargain.
Thanks, but I already have a lot. Also, I am between houses and I am currently paying two mortgages, two electric, gas and water bills, so this is not a time for me to be reducing my cash.
To those who squealed with delight over Apple's drop yesterday over the iPod nano screen issue: the stock recovered almost exactly half of that loss today.
don't want to get into foul language but macFanDave is never going to give up.
Somehow i can't help myself. I gotta keep posting. When is he going to stop... nobody knows.... it keeps getting more fun....
I wanted to get out, but they kept PULLING ME BACK IN!
I just think Farmer's reasoning is lame. Certainly not worthy of being called analysis. Had he mentioned, for example, something about whether Apple will be able to make a dramatic improvement with the portables (iBook, PowerBook) by using Freescale or IBM dual-core chips before the Intel switch, I'd have given the analysis more credence.
I was pleasantly surprised by Apple's hardware sales in the first quarter following the Intel switch announcement. I was getting ready for a depressed year. Farmer's thoughts seem to be in line with those made just after the announcement, but it ignores the counter-intuitive real-world results that obliterated the conventional wisdom of June 2005.
Yes, well, I suppose that video iPods will not be popular, either. It is true that these analysts take their time analysing, but they have predicted the demise of Apple many times too.
Mr. Farmer has not said that Apple will die however, just that the stock is priced fairly now, and likely will not see great gains.
If Apple's stock value plateaus, where it is now or a little higher, one might see that, or it may cool. That seems to be how the market works. Let something go down, so that one might sell at a profit, on the part of those institutions that have bought. Then Apple will come about with a new product, and lo and behold, we should value it higher, but of course those who are paying attention have already bought again, and so one is on the profitable upswing once more. I think that is more how the market works, it is after all for profit for the bigger people, and those who are going along for the ride, or who have invested independently.
If Apple goes down, it just provides an opportunity for folks to invest in it, something which I missed the last time it was lower.
One might surmise that the redmond mafia's pr team will be in high swing on the vista, but then people will realise that things are much the same as they were.
I spent an hour of time waiting for the stupido windows xp to try to analyse a problem on our Kenworth semi truck, and it kept shutting down the diagnostic programme. It reminded me what windows was like, since I only use Macs. The truck centre mechanic said that he would likely be throwing the laptop soon, so to watch out. It is a shame.
I think that when a video capable iPod comes round, that there will be a further resurgence in its popularity. There may be more to come from Apple, in terms of movies, not just music videos. And there may be a download possibility for people through Apple for movies, Apple has helped bring a way for music to be, which has helped that industry.
If Apple's stock cools, it will just be another opportunity for a rise again.
I think he's right, from a prudent investor point of view.
The Intel transition is a huge gamble. If it pays off, Apple's market share could go to 25% or 30% - that's gigantic growth..
Not unless Apple signs an OEM deal with HP or Dell. Apple's machines (save the iBook) don't have the universal appeal that OSX or the iPod has. When it comes to computers, Apple is very much a niche company.
Merril Lynch doesn't have a net revenue of $22 billion by asking Fanboys where to spend their money. 'Pretty talk of financial analysts' this is not. All he is saying is that now is not the time to put money into Apple. It's a warning to people. The people who have seen the rise of Apple over the past few years might finally get of their ass and buy some shares... and that would be a bad idea. If all you hear is 'massive growth', then you've already missed the boat.
I suppose you would also recommend: Berkshire Hathaway, Quiksilver, McDonalds, Microsoft, Nokia etc.... Sorry, You've missed the moneymakin'.
Well, there's certainly been some moneymakin' over the past month!
Five-ten years from now, Apple shares can certainly go for a lot higher than today. I think Apple has a HUGE potential in the coming years. Remember that Microsoft went up about 60000% during the 90's despite heavy pessimism in the early days as it started to pick up. That analysts are fairly reserved about AAPL now is really a good thing for all of us others who's in it for the long haul. You can certainly never get really rich by going after what the analysts say.
Comments
Originally posted by Lincolnrozelle
You really have a hard-on for Farmer don't you.
Not particularly for Farmer. I detest analysts in general.
Merril Lynch doesn't have a net revenue of $22 billion by asking Fanboys where to spend their money. 'Pretty talk of financial analysts' this is not.
Having been convicted of certain crimes, it is hard to say how ML makes its money. They may be making money using as yet undiscovered frauds. Also, your metric of $22B in revenue is irrelevant. On how much invested capital was this revenue generated? How does that rate of return compare with other institutions and individual investor over the same time frame? Obviously, these stats must be pathetic or else you would have mentioned them.
I suppose you would also recommend: Berkshire Hathaway, Quiksilver, McDonalds, Microsoft, Nokia etc.... Sorry, You've missed the moneymakin'.
You must be illiterate. I said the only stock I follow is Apple since I am a self-styled expert on the company. Your list of companies made me laugh. McDonald's is clearly the worst-tasting food among all of the fast-foods, Microsoft makes the lowest-quality software in the business and Nokia blew its commanding lead in cell phones by abandoning innovation. If I gave a shit about those companies, I'd be bearish on all of them predicting eventual bankruptcy for all of them in the long run.
nah. the cracked nano screens thread is much more exciting.
Originally posted by macFanDave
you stupid fuck!
Pretty bold thing to tell a mod. Are you sure you are ready to post here?
First of all what he is saying is that the current stock price already reflects a very positive picture of Apple in the next couple of years and that he share that picture. He don´t talk about losing or even stalling marked share. He is only pointing out that it is very unlikely that the growth of marked share will exceed what the stock price is reflecting.
But lets take your arguments one by one.
Vista: "Farmer also waved caution at the upcoming Intel transition and launch of Microsoft's Vista operating system, two events that could possible hold back buyers and prevent Mac market share gains"
Mark the words "could possible". Every upgrade of Windows since 98 have had the legacy of the previous system as well as new features. OS X and Windows are getting more and more like each other while Windows is still easiest to use for the average person for the sole reason that they are used to it. Its quite reasonable to think that users that is tempted to switch but haven´t done it will see Vista as 90% Mac OS X and say thats good enough. If MS didn´t release Vista then Apple would be able to win over even more people.
Intel: Note the words "hold back buyers". Yes it will hold back me and most people I know. Each time one of the mac centric news sites ask their users if they would buy a first generation of a new Mac far the majority say no. They want the children's disease sorted out before buying. This time its a new processor, an OS on a new platform and a lot of programs not recompiled. It WILL hold especially professional buyers back until generation two or three and all their programs have been recompiled and they can be sure everything works smoothly. That doesn´t mean that the marked share won´t grow. Just that there is factors that "could possible" hold it back to reach a even higher plateau.
iPod: you say: "And as the buyers of new iPods levels off, veteran iPod owners will be buying replacement iPods, whether it is because their first ones broke or they like the new features on new models." which in no way contradicts Farmers argument. He is expecting that the iPod sale will more than double in the next two years.
Originally posted by Anders
Pretty bold thing to tell a mod. Are you sure you are ready to post here?
Is it so bold to use the very same word you use in your own "From:" tag?
Originally posted by Louzer
Yeah, how dare an analyst say bad things about apple. Bad analyst! Bad!
Not exactly. How dare an analyst say stupid bad things about Apple! I complain when analysts say stupid, good things about Apple, too. I remember when some analyst claimed they knew how many iPods Apple was going to sell in the next year with a precision of four significant digits. It was something like 14,720,000. Why didn't they just say "about 15 million?" It was just pompous to claim such a gift of prophecy. So, if an analyst feels the need to open his or her piehole, they'd better make some solid arguments.
Oh, and how does early reactions to Vista help Apple? People will just stay with their current OS/computer. They aren't likely to just dump the whole thing to go mac just because Vista is a yawner.
Man, this is getting tiresome. Do I have to connect-the-dots for you people all the time? Frustration with Windows is palpable. Especially with the various types of malware and how the bad guys seem to always be a step or two ahead of the "good" guys. The fact that Vista is just a fresh paint job on Windows NT (2000, XP) and that viruses for the preview are already in the wild must be a real disappointment to those who have been plagued by Windows' many vulnerabilities. Apple is gaining customers from Windows users who don't want to hassle with Microsoft's incompetence and arrogance. The early reactions to Vista reveal that the nightmare is not going to end anytime soon, thus, a move to the Mac is a wise one.
Originally posted by macFanDave
Is it so bold to use the very same word you use in your own "From:" tag?
The word stupid? Does my "from" field say "macFanDave is a fuck"?
Christ, hindered by their pride.
Originally posted by macFanDave
Idiot!
The Intel transition will only help Apple's market share. Early reactions to Vista are a giant BFD. It's well-known that Vista is not much different from XP and is still plagued by The Registry, the playground of malware authors.
And as the buyers of new iPods levels off, veteran iPod owners will be buying replacement iPods, whether it is because their first ones broke or they like the new features on new models.
Stupid shallow analysis. Richard Farmer ought to pay attention to his name and hop on a tractor instead of slandering Apple.
If you disagree with this analysis, buy Apple share now. Granted to this analysis, the price of the Apple's share droped. If you are confident in the future of Apple, it looks like a great bargain.
Originally posted by Powerdoc
If you disagree with this analysis, buy Apple share now. Granted to this analysis, the price of the Apple's share droped. If you are confident in the future of Apple, it looks like a great bargain.
Thanks, but I already have a lot. Also, I am between houses and I am currently paying two mortgages, two electric, gas and water bills, so this is not a time for me to be reducing my cash.
To those who squealed with delight over Apple's drop yesterday over the iPod nano screen issue: the stock recovered almost exactly half of that loss today.
Somehow i can't help myself. I gotta keep posting. When is he going to stop... nobody knows.... it keeps getting more fun....
Originally posted by Lincolnrozelle
don't want to get into foul language but macFanDave is never going to give up.
Somehow i can't help myself. I gotta keep posting. When is he going to stop... nobody knows.... it keeps getting more fun....
I wanted to get out, but they kept PULLING ME BACK IN!
I just think Farmer's reasoning is lame. Certainly not worthy of being called analysis. Had he mentioned, for example, something about whether Apple will be able to make a dramatic improvement with the portables (iBook, PowerBook) by using Freescale or IBM dual-core chips before the Intel switch, I'd have given the analysis more credence.
I was pleasantly surprised by Apple's hardware sales in the first quarter following the Intel switch announcement. I was getting ready for a depressed year. Farmer's thoughts seem to be in line with those made just after the announcement, but it ignores the counter-intuitive real-world results that obliterated the conventional wisdom of June 2005.
Mr. Farmer has not said that Apple will die however, just that the stock is priced fairly now, and likely will not see great gains.
If Apple's stock value plateaus, where it is now or a little higher, one might see that, or it may cool. That seems to be how the market works. Let something go down, so that one might sell at a profit, on the part of those institutions that have bought. Then Apple will come about with a new product, and lo and behold, we should value it higher, but of course those who are paying attention have already bought again, and so one is on the profitable upswing once more. I think that is more how the market works, it is after all for profit for the bigger people, and those who are going along for the ride, or who have invested independently.
If Apple goes down, it just provides an opportunity for folks to invest in it, something which I missed the last time it was lower.
One might surmise that the redmond mafia's pr team will be in high swing on the vista, but then people will realise that things are much the same as they were.
I spent an hour of time waiting for the stupido windows xp to try to analyse a problem on our Kenworth semi truck, and it kept shutting down the diagnostic programme. It reminded me what windows was like, since I only use Macs. The truck centre mechanic said that he would likely be throwing the laptop soon, so to watch out. It is a shame.
I think that when a video capable iPod comes round, that there will be a further resurgence in its popularity. There may be more to come from Apple, in terms of movies, not just music videos. And there may be a download possibility for people through Apple for movies, Apple has helped bring a way for music to be, which has helped that industry.
If Apple's stock cools, it will just be another opportunity for a rise again.
Originally posted by cubist
I think he's right, from a prudent investor point of view.
The Intel transition is a huge gamble. If it pays off, Apple's market share could go to 25% or 30% - that's gigantic growth..
Not unless Apple signs an OEM deal with HP or Dell. Apple's machines (save the iBook) don't have the universal appeal that OSX or the iPod has. When it comes to computers, Apple is very much a niche company.
Originally posted by Lincolnrozelle
You really have a hard-on for Farmer don't you.
Merril Lynch doesn't have a net revenue of $22 billion by asking Fanboys where to spend their money. 'Pretty talk of financial analysts' this is not. All he is saying is that now is not the time to put money into Apple. It's a warning to people. The people who have seen the rise of Apple over the past few years might finally get of their ass and buy some shares... and that would be a bad idea. If all you hear is 'massive growth', then you've already missed the boat.
I suppose you would also recommend: Berkshire Hathaway, Quiksilver, McDonalds, Microsoft, Nokia etc.... Sorry, You've missed the moneymakin'.
Well, there's certainly been some moneymakin' over the past month!
Five-ten years from now, Apple shares can certainly go for a lot higher than today. I think Apple has a HUGE potential in the coming years. Remember that Microsoft went up about 60000% during the 90's despite heavy pessimism in the early days as it started to pick up. That analysts are fairly reserved about AAPL now is really a good thing for all of us others who's in it for the long haul. You can certainly never get really rich by going after what the analysts say.