2. Resolution. HD is the barest minimum. 720p minimum. 1080i maximum. Huge files are no concern for the true cinema geek.
Several reasons why this won't happen (yet):
Download time. Conservatively you are looking at at least 9GB per movie in HD, probably more. If you are lucky enough to live in one of the relatively few places in the US where you can consistently hit 1MB/sec, downloading 9GB will easily take 2.5 hours. Probably closer to 6-12 hours for most broadband users. Either way, it's only vaguely close to on demand for the top connection tiers. (Assuming you could likely start the movie about halfway through for the fastest connections. How horrible would it be to have to stop the movie 20 minutes from the end because you miscalculated when it'd finish!)
Bandwidth cost. Apple is going to need serious pipes for even SD downloads. If they have several thousand people downloading 9GB per day (and with subscriptions it'd likely be much higher) even with Akamai style redistribution they are going to have serious bandwidth costs associated with each movie.
Portable playback. A 9GB movie would not only take up 15% of the 60GB iPod's capacity, it also would vastly outstrip the playback capacity of the iPod itself. Not to mention not having a suitable connector for playback (though I guess Monster could sell you an iPod HDMI cable for $199). That's 6 movies on your iPod, assuming you have no music on board.
Finally the true cinema geek is not Apple's target market, you can bank on that. The true cinema geek is waiting for HD Disks they can own with collectible posters, directors whatever, etc.
If apple is going to offer $9.99 per month for movies don't expect HD quality. I would say apple would compress the movies to be about 700mb in size like many divx movies that are floating around on the internet. Quality isn't that bad on those but I'm not sure how h.264 compares to them.
$9.99 is a lot to pay for a quarter VGA movie very likely without any extras, audio options or subtitle choices. I thought the SNL stand-up tribute videos on iTunes was a joke, $12.99 for what I found at Best Buy for $7.99.
The subscription, maybe, especially if their ongoing TV shows are offered too. I won't pay $1.99 for an episode for what I can find for a buck an ep on DVD, but $9.99 a month would basically kill much of the need for cable TV for many people.
Three things that must be right for this to work!!!
1. Most important for me is "Quality", if these movies are not DVD quality or better.........nobody will subscribe! Simply put I would rather watch an old DVD, than a 1000 shit quality movies. I hope jobs is aware of that, as I think most people I think would agree!
2. Streaming! On demand!
I line in europe, have a 1meg broadband connection, and am unable to watch a trailer in front row, without either a 30 second delay, no connection at all, or a problem half way through! One meg broadband over here, is rarely cheaper than
$35 a month (?30). And Steve can forget about any customers in Europe without solving this problem............tricky.
3. Just as important, price! If songs are 99cent, i.e. 3-5 times cheaper than bying a single in a store. Then surely a similar thing would have to happen to Movies. Remember, now it's just information, it's not tangible anymore, and is far cheaper for the respective companies to pull off in the long run.
I going to go out on a limb, and say $9.99 a month is too expensive. Most people would prefer, $4.99 a month, for 2 rentals per week. And 2 rentals of your choice free per week to all .Mac subscribers. As it stands .Mac is too dear!
I don't understand all of your logic here.
First, you want DVD or BETTER quality, but then you say that you can't even watch a trailer without a delay because of your slow 1Mbit connection!
Think that through for a while.
Tangible doesn't have to do with anything. A CD costs about $2 to produce in its physical form. The rest of the price is royalties and profits, mostly royalties.
It's pretty clear to me that neither Apple nor the consumer is ready to accept "near DVD" quality movie rentals, except for the iPod video market, where the small size and the pricing is now proven. Even so, there's no way to make a personal backup of the movies. I think this end of the market may yet be 3 or 4 years off. In the meantime, enjoy your iPods.
As long as it takes me a shorter amount of time to walk 5 blocks to Blockbuster and rent a DVD rather than wait for my SBC Yahoo to download the content, burn it to DVD (if I can or need to) and watch it on my Large LCD TV, I'll keep renting.
I have never understood the value of "owning it on DVD" and I probabaly won't understand "owning it with DRM".
[B]Three things that must be right for this to work!!!
1. Most important for me is "Quality", if these movies are not DVD quality or better.........nobody will subscribe! Simply put I would rather watch an old DVD, than a 1000 shit quality movies. I hope jobs is aware of that, as I think most people I think would agree!
2. Streaming! On demand!
I line in europe, have a 1meg broadband connection, and am unable to watch a trailer in front row, without either a 30 second delay, no connection at all, or a problem half way through! One meg broadband over here, is rarely cheaper than
$35 a month (?30). And Steve can forget about any customers in Europe without solving this problem............tricky.
Sorry to hear you're getting ripped off.. but I live in the UK and get 8meg broadband for $15/month (about $25).
Since its Apple, we can assume its going to look fantastic
Give me a break! You do know that Apple's H.264 implementation is one of, if not, the, poorest in the industry? And look at the T.V. shows. Lost, for example, is shot in 16:9 HD, but the downloads you get are 4:3 320 x 240.
Quote:
Originally posted by ChevalierMalFet
Several reasons why this won't happen (yet):
Download time. Conservatively you are looking at at least 9GB per movie in HD, probably more. If you are lucky enough to live in one of the relatively few places in the US where you can consistently hit 1MB/sec, downloading 9GB will easily take 2.5 hours. Probably closer to 6-12 hours for most broadband users.
I think you'd be surprised by how many people are willing to wait. Witness current internet movie piracy.
Quote:
Originally posted by ChevalierMalFet
Bandwidth cost. Apple is going to need serious pipes for even SD downloads. If they have several thousand people downloading 9GB per day (and with subscriptions it'd likely be much higher) even with Akamai style redistribution they are going to have serious bandwidth costs associated with each movie.
That's why Apple need to implement p2p technology into iTunes.
Quote:
Originally posted by ChevalierMalFet
Portable playback. A 9GB movie would not only take up 15% of the 60GB iPod's capacity, it also would vastly outstrip the playback capacity of the iPod itself. Not to mention not having a suitable connector for playback (though I guess Monster could sell you an iPod HDMI cable for $199). That's 6 movies on your iPod, assuming you have no music on board.
Whilst this is true, I don't see why Apple should wait until you can fit 100s of movies onto a portable device before launching a movie download service. I would have thought that most people would be interested in watching the movies at home on a big screen than when out and about.
TV shows are different. You can catch one whilst on your daily commute.
"We wonder if the announcements were substantial enough to merit an invitational media event and suspect Apple needs to be judicious if it expects to continue to convert journalists into marketing instruments with its aura of secrecy,"
In response to this, Apple had limited seating because it wasn't that big of a deal; the media and rumor sites like this one made it a big deal increasing expectations.
Another way to look at it...
This is a very special and exclusive event so only a privelged few will have the honer of being selected to attend.
First, you want DVD or BETTER quality, but then you say that you can't even watch a trailer without a delay because of your slow 1Mbit connection!
Think that through for a while.
He said that both these things would have to be overcome. If Apple offers movies in 320x240 for the current iPod forget it. If Apple comes out with a widescreen/touchscreen iPod with a resolution like that of the PSP then it might take off. The prices indicated are way too high for this though I haven't seen sales numbers of current iTMS videos yet.
Personally, I have no need to own a movie in physical form or on my hard drive..
I've been renting my movies for 20 years... If I could rent or download and view unlimitied movies for 10 bucks a month, I'd be all over it..
As long as it's not the current 320*240... I wouldn't expect Hi-def, but I'd be satisfied with SD.
This would rock!
I'd buy a mini and hook it up to my tv with a wireless keyboard on my coffee table, shop itunes for a movie to watch, switch to front row and bam, start watching a movie without ever leaving my couch...
This is totally not an Apple Survey. Apple does things in secret. They wouldn't risk putting a survey out on the public internet where any joe taking the survey can take a screen shot. I think this is being done by Vongo or another one of Apple's competitors. I have never heard of an Apple survey being leaked in this fashion before, therefore I do not think it is an Apple survey at all.
This is totally not an Apple Survey. Apple does things in secret. They wouldn't risk putting a survey out on the public internet where any joe taking the survey can take a screen shot. I think this is being done by Vongo or another one of Apple's competitors. I have never heard of an Apple survey being leaked in this fashion before, therefore I do not think it is an Apple survey at all.
Yeah, we get shafted in the US on the bandwith front.
It would probably cost $100/month to get that here.
Hell, I'm paying $35/month for 1.5meg
Sometimes you can negotiate for a better deal. When I left EarthLink, they were giving me 1.2Mbps for $50/mo. They offered 3Mbps but I declined. I got 5Mbps for $25/mo. as part of a switch to a different phone carrier so the whole package was $49.95 for complete phone service, including all the modern features, long distance, and very high speed DSL, plus tax. Verizon offers 5 megabit FiOS for 34.95 plus what they charge for phone service. Not a great deal.
I'd love to get a new Mac mini and have an Apple movie download service. This survey, though, has nothing to do with Apple. For it to do movie downloads, it'd have to settle with Burst first.
BTW, the mini is perfect for use with video downloads because of its unique video capabilities. While integrated graphics isn't the best for 3D games by any stretch, Intel's GMA950 is perfect for DVD, HDTV, and a range of resolutions. The mini is the perfect media hub now.
Comments
Originally posted by Rolo
Apple didn't commission the survey.
Very possible.
Originally posted by mcloki
2. Resolution. HD is the barest minimum. 720p minimum. 1080i maximum. Huge files are no concern for the true cinema geek.
Several reasons why this won't happen (yet):
Download time. Conservatively you are looking at at least 9GB per movie in HD, probably more. If you are lucky enough to live in one of the relatively few places in the US where you can consistently hit 1MB/sec, downloading 9GB will easily take 2.5 hours. Probably closer to 6-12 hours for most broadband users. Either way, it's only vaguely close to on demand for the top connection tiers. (Assuming you could likely start the movie about halfway through for the fastest connections. How horrible would it be to have to stop the movie 20 minutes from the end because you miscalculated when it'd finish!)
Bandwidth cost. Apple is going to need serious pipes for even SD downloads. If they have several thousand people downloading 9GB per day (and with subscriptions it'd likely be much higher) even with Akamai style redistribution they are going to have serious bandwidth costs associated with each movie.
Portable playback. A 9GB movie would not only take up 15% of the 60GB iPod's capacity, it also would vastly outstrip the playback capacity of the iPod itself. Not to mention not having a suitable connector for playback (though I guess Monster could sell you an iPod HDMI cable for $199). That's 6 movies on your iPod, assuming you have no music on board.
Finally the true cinema geek is not Apple's target market, you can bank on that. The true cinema geek is waiting for HD Disks they can own with collectible posters, directors whatever, etc.
The subscription, maybe, especially if their ongoing TV shows are offered too. I won't pay $1.99 for an episode for what I can find for a buck an ep on DVD, but $9.99 a month would basically kill much of the need for cable TV for many people.
Originally posted by Ireland
Three things that must be right for this to work!!!
1. Most important for me is "Quality", if these movies are not DVD quality or better.........nobody will subscribe! Simply put I would rather watch an old DVD, than a 1000 shit quality movies. I hope jobs is aware of that, as I think most people I think would agree!
2. Streaming! On demand!
I line in europe, have a 1meg broadband connection, and am unable to watch a trailer in front row, without either a 30 second delay, no connection at all, or a problem half way through! One meg broadband over here, is rarely cheaper than
$35 a month (?30). And Steve can forget about any customers in Europe without solving this problem............tricky.
3. Just as important, price! If songs are 99cent, i.e. 3-5 times cheaper than bying a single in a store. Then surely a similar thing would have to happen to Movies. Remember, now it's just information, it's not tangible anymore, and is far cheaper for the respective companies to pull off in the long run.
I going to go out on a limb, and say $9.99 a month is too expensive. Most people would prefer, $4.99 a month, for 2 rentals per week. And 2 rentals of your choice free per week to all .Mac subscribers. As it stands .Mac is too dear!
I don't understand all of your logic here.
First, you want DVD or BETTER quality, but then you say that you can't even watch a trailer without a delay because of your slow 1Mbit connection!
Think that through for a while.
Tangible doesn't have to do with anything. A CD costs about $2 to produce in its physical form. The rest of the price is royalties and profits, mostly royalties.
As long as it takes me a shorter amount of time to walk 5 blocks to Blockbuster and rent a DVD rather than wait for my SBC Yahoo to download the content, burn it to DVD (if I can or need to) and watch it on my Large LCD TV, I'll keep renting.
I have never understood the value of "owning it on DVD" and I probabaly won't understand "owning it with DRM".
Originally posted by Ireland
[B]Three things that must be right for this to work!!!
1. Most important for me is "Quality", if these movies are not DVD quality or better.........nobody will subscribe! Simply put I would rather watch an old DVD, than a 1000 shit quality movies. I hope jobs is aware of that, as I think most people I think would agree!
2. Streaming! On demand!
I line in europe, have a 1meg broadband connection, and am unable to watch a trailer in front row, without either a 30 second delay, no connection at all, or a problem half way through! One meg broadband over here, is rarely cheaper than
$35 a month (?30). And Steve can forget about any customers in Europe without solving this problem............tricky.
Sorry to hear you're getting ripped off.. but I live in the UK and get 8meg broadband for $15/month (about $25).
Most of Europe gets great, fast, cheap broadband.
I think it's a strange interview.
No-one is going to pay the same price as for a DVD if you can only keep the movie on your harddrive, in a probably inferior quality.
There's no doubt that everyone will say they prefer the monthly subscription model, if it costs only 9.99
Some-one, not definitely Apple, seems to be collecting ammo for their negotiations...
Originally posted by TimmyD
Since its Apple, we can assume its going to look fantastic
Give me a break! You do know that Apple's H.264 implementation is one of, if not, the, poorest in the industry? And look at the T.V. shows. Lost, for example, is shot in 16:9 HD, but the downloads you get are 4:3 320 x 240.
Originally posted by ChevalierMalFet
Several reasons why this won't happen (yet):
Download time. Conservatively you are looking at at least 9GB per movie in HD, probably more. If you are lucky enough to live in one of the relatively few places in the US where you can consistently hit 1MB/sec, downloading 9GB will easily take 2.5 hours. Probably closer to 6-12 hours for most broadband users.
I think you'd be surprised by how many people are willing to wait. Witness current internet movie piracy.
Originally posted by ChevalierMalFet
Bandwidth cost. Apple is going to need serious pipes for even SD downloads. If they have several thousand people downloading 9GB per day (and with subscriptions it'd likely be much higher) even with Akamai style redistribution they are going to have serious bandwidth costs associated with each movie.
That's why Apple need to implement p2p technology into iTunes.
Originally posted by ChevalierMalFet
Portable playback. A 9GB movie would not only take up 15% of the 60GB iPod's capacity, it also would vastly outstrip the playback capacity of the iPod itself. Not to mention not having a suitable connector for playback (though I guess Monster could sell you an iPod HDMI cable for $199). That's 6 movies on your iPod, assuming you have no music on board.
Whilst this is true, I don't see why Apple should wait until you can fit 100s of movies onto a portable device before launching a movie download service. I would have thought that most people would be interested in watching the movies at home on a big screen than when out and about.
TV shows are different. You can catch one whilst on your daily commute.
Originally posted by icfireball
"We wonder if the announcements were substantial enough to merit an invitational media event and suspect Apple needs to be judicious if it expects to continue to convert journalists into marketing instruments with its aura of secrecy,"
In response to this, Apple had limited seating because it wasn't that big of a deal; the media and rumor sites like this one made it a big deal increasing expectations.
Another way to look at it...
This is a very special and exclusive event so only a privelged few will have the honer of being selected to attend.
Originally posted by melgross
I don't understand all of your logic here.
First, you want DVD or BETTER quality, but then you say that you can't even watch a trailer without a delay because of your slow 1Mbit connection!
Think that through for a while.
He said that both these things would have to be overcome. If Apple offers movies in 320x240 for the current iPod forget it. If Apple comes out with a widescreen/touchscreen iPod with a resolution like that of the PSP then it might take off. The prices indicated are way too high for this though I haven't seen sales numbers of current iTMS videos yet.
Originally posted by 1984
I haven't seen sales numbers of current iTMS videos yet.
15 million is the most recently released figure. See it at the bottom of this press release
Originally posted by Tommo_UK
Sorry to hear you're getting ripped off.. but I live in the UK and get 8meg broadband for $15/month (about $25).
Most of Europe gets great, fast, cheap broadband.
*sigh*
Yeah, we get shafted in the US on the bandwith front.
It would probably cost $100/month to get that here.
Hell, I'm paying $35/month for 1.5meg
ABSOLUTELY, WITHOUT A DOUBT!!
Personally, I have no need to own a movie in physical form or on my hard drive..
I've been renting my movies for 20 years... If I could rent or download and view unlimitied movies for 10 bucks a month, I'd be all over it..
As long as it's not the current 320*240... I wouldn't expect Hi-def, but I'd be satisfied with SD.
This would rock!
I'd buy a mini and hook it up to my tv with a wireless keyboard on my coffee table, shop itunes for a movie to watch, switch to front row and bam, start watching a movie without ever leaving my couch...
I think this would be huge!
Originally posted by MacCentric
This is totally not an Apple Survey. Apple does things in secret. They wouldn't risk putting a survey out on the public internet where any joe taking the survey can take a screen shot. I think this is being done by Vongo or another one of Apple's competitors. I have never heard of an Apple survey being leaked in this fashion before, therefore I do not think it is an Apple survey at all.
Bingo! AI came to the wrong conclusion.
Originally posted by Flounder
*sigh*
Yeah, we get shafted in the US on the bandwith front.
It would probably cost $100/month to get that here.
Hell, I'm paying $35/month for 1.5meg
Sometimes you can negotiate for a better deal. When I left EarthLink, they were giving me 1.2Mbps for $50/mo. They offered 3Mbps but I declined. I got 5Mbps for $25/mo. as part of a switch to a different phone carrier so the whole package was $49.95 for complete phone service, including all the modern features, long distance, and very high speed DSL, plus tax. Verizon offers 5 megabit FiOS for 34.95 plus what they charge for phone service. Not a great deal.
I'd love to get a new Mac mini and have an Apple movie download service. This survey, though, has nothing to do with Apple. For it to do movie downloads, it'd have to settle with Burst first.
BTW, the mini is perfect for use with video downloads because of its unique video capabilities. While integrated graphics isn't the best for 3D games by any stretch, Intel's GMA950 is perfect for DVD, HDTV, and a range of resolutions. The mini is the perfect media hub now.