Apple should meet or beat Q3 guidance - analyst

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
Despite a softening in demand for iPods, analysts believe strong Intel Mac sales will fuel solid third quarter results for Apple Computer, which reports next month.



American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu said on Thursday that Apple's Mac business appears ahead of plan for the quarter while its iPod business is slightly slacking.



"We are seeing weaker iPod nano shipments offset by strength in video iPods and iPod shuffles," Wu wrote in a note to clients. "We continue to believe the iPod nano is in need of a refresh and will likely see one in the September quarter."



The analyst, however, believes Apple's Mac business "will essentially offset" the weaker iPod sales. "We continue to believe that Apple is on track to hit the upper end, if not exceed, its guidance of $4.2 - $4.4 billion in revenue and $0.39 - $0.42 in earnings-per-share," he wrote.



For the quarter, Wu expects Apple to report earnings of 44 cents a share on sales of $4.4 billion. His model includes 1.3 million Macs (up from 1.2 million) and 8.3 million iPods (down from 8.5).



In a report to clients on Wednesday, PiperJaffray analyst Gene Munster said NPD data recently released for the Month of May indicates Apple will report sales of anywhere from 7.7 to 8.2 million iPods. This despite the Street's expectation of around 8.6 million iPods.



Nevertheless, the analyst shares a similar mentality to Wu, in that Mac sales will likely offset softer iPod results.



"The iPod number will likely be a nonevent for the June quarter," Munster wrote. "More importantly, we believe the Mac number has room for upside."

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 19
    Quote:

    Originally posted by AppleInsider

    The analyst, however, believes Apple's Mac business "will essentially offset" the weaker iPod sales. "We continue to believe that Apple is on track to hit the upper end, if not exceed, its guidance of $4.2 - $4.4 billion in revenue and $0.39 - $0.42 in earnings-per-share," he wrote.


    [ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]




    "Wu believes" hehe.



    these guys are like fortune tellers, gipsies or preachers.
  • Reply 2 of 19
    kim kap solkim kap sol Posts: 2,987member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by monkeyastronaut

    "Wu believes" hehe.



    these guys are like fortune tellers, gipsies or preachers.




    All of us here on the AI forums could become Apple 'analysts'. Wu just gets paid for doing what we do. Smart man.
  • Reply 3 of 19
    irelandireland Posts: 17,223member
    Shaw Wu is beginning to get on my nerves.
  • Reply 4 of 19
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Ireland

    Shaw Wu is beginning to get on my nerves.



    yeah site should be renamed to "Wu Insider"
  • Reply 5 of 19
    Quote:

    Originally posted by kim kap sol

    All of us here on the AI forums could become Apple 'analysts'. Wu just gets paid for doing what we do. Smart man.



    and that's just fine. i have no problems with analysts, but the annoying thing is every single thing Wu says makes it to apple insider's front page and usually it's just a rehash of the rumors that have been going on, sometimes for years.



    i just don't believe shaw wu's "beliefs" represent newsworthy reports... every. single. time.
  • Reply 6 of 19
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 29,347member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by monkeyastronaut

    yeah site should be renamed to "Wu Insider"



    Wu who?... oh, Wooo Hoooo!
  • Reply 7 of 19
    ibillibill Posts: 390member
    "Wong way Wu"
  • Reply 8 of 19
    josa92josa92 Posts: 193member
    WHO THE HELL IS SHAW WU AND WHY DO WE CARE WHAT HE SAYS?!?!?!?!?!?!?



    i dont understand why we believe what he says--has he been right recently?



    i dont remember but he probably wasnt. dammit, we could all become an anaylst. You know, here's my report:



    Apple will sell some 8 bazillion ipods this year and their market share will go down, and then some employee will get decapitated by a macbook-box cutting machine, and mac sales will rise as the price of parts goes down.



    there. now i'm an analyst.



    anyone else want to be an analyst with me?
  • Reply 9 of 19
    eckingecking Posts: 1,588member
    Sure I'll be an analyst too.



    At this coming WWDC Apple plans to finally take the blanket of both it's OSX 10.5 Leopard and their professional level Mac Desktop that we firmly believe will be called the Mac Pro, which will be built around Intel Corps latest offering of chips. This would mean the transition would be complete a full year ahead of the orignal planned schedule. After this happens Apple can be begin to think about possibly unveiling new machines because their core lineup has transitioned.



    There, I'm an analyst too - now where is my cheque?
  • Reply 10 of 19
    josa92josa92 Posts: 193member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by ecking

    Sure I'll be an analyst too.



    At this coming WWDC Apple plans to finally take the blanket of both it's OSX 10.5 Leopard and their professional level Mac Desktop that we firmly believe will be called the Mac Pro, which will be built around Intel Corps latest offering of chips. This would mean the transition would be complete a full year ahead of the orignal planned schedule. After this happens Apple can be begin to think about possibly unveiling new machines because their core lineup has transitioned.



    There, I'm an analyst too - now where is my cheque?




    Fantastic! We are so good at this.



    APPLEINSIDER! PUT US ON THE FRONT PAGE



    we make a very good team, ecking and i.



    we are an apple analyst team. an assortment of apple analysts. a force of fakers. a--any suggestions?

    ;-)
  • Reply 11 of 19
    mattyjmattyj Posts: 898member
    My report:



    Apple Computer is now on the verge of completing its transition to an all intel chip line up, however, the highly anticipated Mac Pro isn't the only product will launch this year with performance in mind. I predict that Apple will sell, for $2000 per unit, their RDF, that has recently been finalized since several tests have been successful.



    Otherwise known as the Reality Distortion Field, much akin to Doctor Who's telepathic paper, this small iPod shaped device will emit a telepathic aura, and will enable anyone to sell ideas and products as effectively as Steve Jobs. Got a crap, mediocre or just predictable product? You need the RDF, which will enable you to "wow" any crowd, including investors.



    In other news, Apple will begin shipping iPod Nanos to known terrorists with C4 in them, and when they listen to any American or Western music they will detonate. Each of these iPods comes preloaded with Britney Spear's Greatest Hits.
  • Reply 12 of 19
    recompilerecompile Posts: 100member
    Well, as you are all commenting on, the stock market IS fortune telling. I own a company that Day trades stocks. I trade a lot of Apple stock. I have little respect for the majority of the "Analysts" out there, but I do have a considerable amount of respect for Shaw Wu. The "Magic" that goes into stocks is all about minimizing and managing the risks of your investment (Stock shares). Insight on assets, growth patterns, liabilities, products and their demand and pricing in the marketplace, etc. Have a big impact on predicting the outcome of Apple's current ventures. NOBODY will always be correct. A lot of the so-called "Analysts" are like annoying reporters, making stuff up, or saying things that seem to challenge all logic or just run at the mouth, in order to "Get noticed" and create traffic in their direction, which in turn makes them get a bigger paycheck. Rumor sites do the same. Just look at MOSR sometime. (Or don't!). Shaw Wu, in my opinion, tries to stay as neutral and objective as possible, but sometimes has trouble with too much influence from what he wants, or his emotions. But those are also his strengths. I believe he is truly one of the best in his field and has a good understanding of Apple and it's philosophies. This it what is lacking from most other brainwashed "analysts" pre programmed by the PC world and Micro$oft. Many analysts could really care less of Apple unless it is affecting a trend away from Micro$oft.
  • Reply 13 of 19
    josa92josa92 Posts: 193member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by ReCompile

    Well, as you are all commenting on, the stock market IS fortune telling. I own a company that Day trades stocks. I trade a lot of Apple stock. I have little respect for the majority of the "Analysts" out there, but I do have a considerable amount of respect for Shaw Wu. The "Magic" that goes into stocks is all about minimizing and managing the risks of your investment (Stock shares). Insight on assets, growth patterns, liabilities, products and their demand and pricing in the marketplace, etc. Have a big impact on predicting the outcome of Apple's current ventures. NOBODY will always be correct. A lot of the so-called "Analysts" are like annoying reporters, making stuff up, or saying things that seem to challenge all logic or just run at the mouth, in order to "Get noticed" and create traffic in their direction, which in turn makes them get a bigger paycheck. Rumor sites do the same. Just look at MOSR sometime. (Or don't!). Shaw Wu, in my opinion, tries to stay as neutral and objective as possible, but sometimes has trouble with too much influence from what he wants, or his emotions. But those are also his strengths. I believe he is truly one of the best in his field and has a good understanding of Apple and it's philosophies. This it what is lacking from most other brainwashed "analysts" pre programmed by the PC world and Micro$oft. Many analysts could really care less of Apple unless it is affecting a trend away from Micro$oft.



    Right. That makes sense. Really. But at the same time, he's just reiterating what we've been saying since, like, forEVER ago.



    but it makes sense.
  • Reply 14 of 19
    aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,558member
    A number of people on this forum do own Apple stock, and a major reason why we are here (aside from personal interest/obsession) is to stay ahead of the game.



    Many times analysts make bone-headed projections, or simply "safe" projections. They actually have data to back up their projections though.



    While I agree that not every analyst comment belongs on AI, but this comment specifically addresses a previous concern a couple weeks back that iPod sales were slacking and they didn't expect mac sales to pick up the slack.



    Much like the commentary at the time, this report indicates that mac sales are healthy after the introduction of the 17" MBP, the MacBook, and the start of the educational buying season.



    The term used for too much analysis is "paralysis by analysis." Coma doesn't rhyme as well. If you don't want to read the articles... don't!
  • Reply 15 of 19
    Quote:

    Originally posted by ReCompile

    the stock market IS fortune telling. I do have a considerable amount of respect for Shaw Wu. Shaw Wu, in my opinion, tries to stay as neutral and objective as possible, but sometimes has trouble with too much influence from what he wants, or his emotions. But those are also his strengths. I believe he is truly one of the best in his field and has a good understanding of Apple and it's philosophies.



    I think YOU are Shaw Wu! guys! get him!
  • Reply 16 of 19
    spindlerspindler Posts: 713member
    You guys that dismiss analysts are completely wrong. Analysts virtually always give good answers. The people on these boards virtually never know what they are talking about.



    Here's some history. If you go back between 2 and 5 years ago, analysts continually said that Apple would gain customers if they offered machines that also ran Windows. Well, this is the first quarter, and it's looking like instant growth. Now, for the last few years, anyone who posted on these boards saying that Apple should switch to x86 was instantly called a total idiot and dismissed in the worst way. I know because I posted some. Well, analysts were right, and 99% of people here were wrong.



    For years, analysts said that the little things Apple did would not increase market share, and they were right every time. But people here called them idiots. Here are some of the things that you guys claimed had a good chance to increase Mac sales, but really had no chance at all, which analysts saw:



    - OS X

    - "When OS X gets Photoshop, sales will take off"

    - "When Jaguar comes out and OS X is solid enough sales will take off"

    - iMovie, iPhoto, etc.



    As each of these things happened, analysts were right and the posters here were wrong.



    BUT, that doesn't mean analysts were just being pessimistic or playing it safe. The instant that the iPod was a hit, analysts said there was a good chance that it might increase Mac sales, though no one could no for sure.



    So, to summarize, analysts have been correct every time while continuously being called idiots. And most of the posts here were basically loud, uninformed, wishful thinking.
  • Reply 17 of 19
    Quote:

    Originally posted by spindler

    You guys that dismiss analysts are completely wrong. Analysts virtually always give good answers. The people on these boards virtually never know what they are talking about.



    Here's some history. If you go back between 2 and 5 years ago, analysts continually said that Apple would gain customers if they offered machines that also ran Windows. Well, this is the first quarter, and it's looking like instant growth. Now, for the last few years, anyone who posted on these boards saying that Apple should switch to x86 was instantly called a total idiot and dismissed in the worst way. I know because I posted some. Well, analysts were right, and 99% of people here were wrong.



    For years, analysts said that the little things Apple did would not increase market share, and they were right every time. But people here called them idiots. Here are some of the things that you guys claimed had a good chance to increase Mac sales, but really had no chance at all, which analysts saw:



    - OS X

    - "When OS X gets Photoshop, sales will take off"

    - "When Jaguar comes out and OS X is solid enough sales will take off"

    - iMovie, iPhoto, etc.



    As each of these things happened, analysts were right and the posters here were wrong.



    BUT, that doesn't mean analysts were just being pessimistic or playing it safe. The instant that the iPod was a hit, analysts said there was a good chance that it might increase Mac sales, though no one could no for sure.



    So, to summarize, analysts have been correct every time while continuously being called idiots. And most of the posts here were basically loud, uninformed, wishful thinking.




    uhhh no. analysts are like the horoscope. they say a little bit of everything... so when something actually happens... gullible people are "see! they were right!"



    so it's just a guessing game by everyone, including analysts and posters.



    you're bound to be right if you predict everything. like iphone, it's been around for years, and the apple media hub, etc etc.
  • Reply 18 of 19
    recompilerecompile Posts: 100member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by monkeyastronaut

    I think YOU are Shaw Wu! guys! get him!



    That's Mr. Wu to you.

    Everyone should stop the Boo-Hoo.

    I am one of the few that can tell you what is new.

    And if I am wrong, please don't sue.

    I keep reading of this coo, and to digest this I must chew and chew, like a cow that goes moo.

    So please no more Boo-hoos about the news of what is new.



    Mr. Wu.

    (aka Dr. Sues.)
  • Reply 19 of 19
    aquaticaquatic Posts: 5,602member
    All as AAPL tanks to 56. She's going down Capn' down down! Dive! Prepare for collision!



    I'm really getting an itchy finger to walk down to Scottrade today and drop a thou on AAPL. I have to resist, I have to resist...I need to land a job, then I will. Gotta maintain financial sanity.
Sign In or Register to comment.