iTV does not address the fundamental question for it's being. What is the consumer advantage that makes it superior to other, simpler solutions, such as today's DVDs.
For iTV to work for me, I'd have to have (many) terabytes of instantly accessible movies. That just doesn't add up. I'd be a smarter consumer to simply buy DVDs or (if I'm willing to risk it, Blu-Ray discs).
Of course Apple knows all of this. I'm sure Apple has only given us part of the story and we will hear more detail about iTV in the near future.
The point of iTV, Front Row, iTunes, iPod is for the computer to be a media center that can provide content for various devices. I don't think Apple expects iTV to be a huge seller like the iPod, just an accessory for those who want it.
I have a friend who has a collection of over 200 DVD's if he would pay for a way to access them instantly. HD storage is getting cheaper and cheaper.
Broadband has 44.45% penetration in the household and 73% among active internet users. A potential market of 23% of some 48 million subscribers aint so bad.
Steve Jobs and Apple know EXACTLY what they're doing with iTV. When I was (finally) watching the Showtime video it hit me: Apple is re-inventing the home entertainment atmosphere. Sure the content isn't high def yet, and sure broadband isn't quite that fast yet, but look at the quality of a movie you can get without ever leaving your house or waiting for a Netflix movie to show up. With an iTV, you'll be able to access damn near every piece of media from your computer on your home entertainment center. Pretty amazing. This will be huge.
I mentioned a while back that Apple really needed a good way to "pull" content to the stereo/TV instead of pushing it like Airport Express does. iTV is that solution and it will change things without a doubt.
Broadband has 44.45% penetration in the household and 73% among active internet users. A potential market of 23% of some 48 million subscribers aint so bad.
Although I'd really only count 5Mbps+ cable and FIOS subscribers in this mix.
And perhaps WiMax in the future but I'm not holding my breath for Sprint to make that happen regardless of any 2008 claims.
Vinea
Those numbers sound highly inflated, Vin. I don't expect a sea change of today's buying habits overnight. Not even in 2-3 years. People seldom immediately warm up to new ways of doing things. I realize there is a very small minority of people torrenting movies for viewing on personal viewing devices and computers, but the vast, vast majority of normal people could give two shits about that. They want cheap, fast and easy, and if they have to think about it, it will flunk their usability test.
Steve Jobs and Apple know EXACTLY what they're doing with iTV. When I was (finally) watching the Showtime video it hit me: Apple is re-inventing the home entertainment atmosphere. Sure the content isn't high def yet, and sure broadband isn't quite that fast yet, but look at the quality of a movie you can get without ever leaving your house or waiting for a Netflix movie to show up. With an iTV, you'll be able to access damn near every piece of media from your computer on your home entertainment center. Pretty amazing. This will be huge.
I mentioned a while back that Apple really needed a good way to "pull" content to the stereo/TV instead of pushing it like Airport Express does. iTV is that solution and it will change things without a doubt.
Actually, I like getting out of the house sometimes. I hope there is some kind of community aspect to iTV as well as interactivity-free antiseptic movie viewing.
I totally agree with you. Where I stand is - The things iTV offered in the demo should be a few of the the bonus features that are accessible if you have a Mac or PC running iTunes. It should be a PVR like tivo device, but the things Apple is offering from the demo should be what happens if you own a computer, and if you own a Mac you should be able to access some more of Apples digital hub. Just running video iChats, and Photo-booth alone through a PVR with the bonus features would be a really cool product including all the other features at no extra cost. It would Just be one of the many more reasons to buy a Mac. I think they they came at this from the wrong direction. What they showed was pretty "ho hum" and messed up compared to a TIVO, DreamBox or a ReplayTV. Apple is bringing the computers to the TV, not enhancing TV for the typical TV user, and adding bonus features that you can't get elsewhere which is what they should have done.
I still think they should buy DreamBox, or Elgato, or better yet both, and come up with a more sensible product for the living room, and having limited set of computer accessibility apps from there would be best way to market this. As for right now I would prefer a good PVR/DVR device alone over what Apple just announced. I think Apple should have tried to beat that.
As I said in another thread: TiVo would defeat their iTMS sales. Why sell the cow when suckers buy the milk they can only drink out of Apple brand glasses? Plus, it's low-quality milk. It's like cat-milk or something.
Those numbers sound highly inflated, Vin. I don't expect a sea change of today's buying habits overnight. Not even in 2-3 years. People seldom immediately warm up to new ways of doing things. I realize there is a very small minority of people torrenting movies for viewing on personal viewing devices and computers, but the vast, vast majority of normal people could give two shits about that. They want cheap, fast and easy, and if they have to think about it, it will flunk their usability test.
Things can and do change fast, as soon as the price and service is right for the public. Sure it took time for DVR's, but NetFlix success forced a lot of changes at BlockBuster pretty fast. The logical evolution to the video rental market will be to the internet or OnDemand from the cable company. NetFlix and the "new BlockBuster" have basically set the pricing model for this at under $20/month. The restrictions will need to be modified, and the price may change slightly but this is a price and service that people are willing to pay for and want. Apple may not have it now, but if they want to reinvent the living room then they are going to need it or allow someone else access to their hardware/software delivery methods to provide the service.
Those numbers sound highly inflated, Vin. I don't expect a sea change of today's buying habits overnight. Not even in 2-3 years. People seldom immediately warm up to new ways of doing things. I realize there is a very small minority of people torrenting movies for viewing on personal viewing devices and computers, but the vast, vast majority of normal people could give two shits about that. They want cheap, fast and easy, and if they have to think about it, it will flunk their usability test.
Well of course they are inflated...they come from a market analyst.
With respect to iTV the "special sauce" that Apple typically brings to the table is the "it just works" factor. While there are media center extenders that attach to PCs today iTV should make it fast and easy. Cheap isn't an Apple specialty...but for the demographics that may not matter as much. Usability is an Apple specialty.
I expect it to be easier to use than cable VOD/PPV and hopefully work more consistently. In many ways this isn't a "new way of doing things" but the same way using a different underlying technology. The metaphor should be like any other iTunes purchase. Pick a title. Buy it. Hit play.
Steve Jobs and Apple know EXACTLY what they're doing with iTV. When I was (finally) watching the Showtime video it hit me: Apple is re-inventing the home entertainment atmosphere. Sure the content isn't high def yet, and sure broadband isn't quite that fast yet, but look at the quality of a movie you can get without ever leaving your house or waiting for a Netflix movie to show up. With an iTV, you'll be able to access damn near every piece of media from your computer on your home entertainment center. Pretty amazing. This will be huge.
I mentioned a while back that Apple really needed a good way to "pull" content to the stereo/TV instead of pushing it like Airport Express does. iTV is that solution and it will change things without a doubt.
I would agre except that access means own in this case. If I'm gonna own it I want it HD looking forward. I'll purchase an HD lcd TV this fall and I doubt I'll buy any more standard DVDs when blue ray and HD DVDs show up. If Apple rented movies then It would be a different story.
Mmm...I figured out (belatedly) on another thread to key importance for iTV: HDCP and hardware security support. There was a comment on the AVS Forum by one of the Microsoft guys that XP would never get full HD playback because the studio's required hardware security to insure the video chain was secure. Only Vista would be able to do that and with new hardware requirements.
iTV provides that for OSX. The HD content is streamed securely to the iTV box that then decodes it and makes sure that any protected content is only output on the HDCP compliant HDMI output or downrez'd on the component output. As a CE set top box that isn't a mini it should be moderately harder to hack.
Presumably current generation Macs could only view protected HD content downrez'd to 960x540. That's how Apple can get away with selling HD movies on iTunes and not many other folks. Proven security by controlling the entire distribution and display chain from software to hardware.
Sony and Microsoft can do that but Sony is a competitor (studio wise) and Microsoft doesn't have a proven iTunes like store yet. If they did the XP/MCE could stream to Xbox 360 extender would also fit the bill.
Buying habits change quite quickly as ITMS V sales have shown.... people are interested even if others think it's ludicrous to pay 1.99 for 20 minutes of 1/14 rez tv shows. Nonetheless we now have more resolution, widescreen shows and soon a method of serving SD video to our TV's that doesn't ignore the PC realm (very important). I believe that we will see a B-ray player in the new mini, which for all practical purposes will be the big brother of ITV. I'm already 100% free of disks; no CD's no DVD's and certainly NO VHS! I will buy B-ray disks when I either buy a Sony PS3 or perhaps a Mac Mini with B-ray and that's fine for the movies that i really love, I don't need the "best" quality for everything because in the end it's also about diversity in content (even at home) and ease of access. My friends love just browsing my collection (2TB's of video content) and no one loved browsing my 250 DVD collection on the shelf. Too bad apple will probably never get around licensing issues to play or catalog a ripped DVD library from Itunes with the cover art ( I really like album flip view) but it really doesn't matter. The next step is to get the content up to XVGA and in a few years HD. If we're talking about the real market very few really care about HD despite the fact that many of us own HD TV's. I think, "we just like the big screen? as moronic as that may seem. The content isn't ready, the players aren't ready Apple has some time, especially if either ITV or the "NEW" mini will get a B-ray option, because disks will continue to be the best method of delivery for HD content for a while.
ITV great start... can?t wait for Rev 2 0r 3 or a crazy cool mini!
I'm personally not interested in a product that requires I have a running computer just to duplicate what I could have with a regular DVD. That's ridiculous engineering-centric thinking. Not the usual Apple-like thinking. Netflix remains my entertainment provider choice for now. Let's rethink this one Apple.
Yeah, it sucks that the iTV is built solely for playing Movies.
Yeah, it sucks that the iTV is built solely for playing Movies.
I don't think that's what he's saying, and I doubt you missed it. He's unhappy with the fact that you have to have not only your TV, and iTV running, but also a computer. I agree with him. The computer part should have added bonus features to a TV product that works fine in the home all by itself.
I don't think that's what he's saying, and I doubt you missed it. He's unhappy with the fact that you have to have not only your TV, and iTV running, but also a computer. I agree with him. The computer part should have added bonus features to a TV product that works fine in the home all by itself.
I'd like to be able to put the computer to sleep, and then wake it up for sharing access, rather than keeping it on all the time.
But nathan22t makes a good point: People criticizing this are focusing on using this for iTunes movies. That's looking at it much too narrowly. This is a hub to take any media content you keep on your Mac - photos, music, iMovies you've made, your pr0n, whatever - and viewing it on the TV. It's something that Apple's airport currently only allows you to do with music, and with all the other types of media content that people keep on their computers, it's a very logical step.
[QUOTE=vinea]You don't think Apple has Petabytes worth of storage between .mac, iTunes, etc?
Quote:
How instant do you want it? I can see iTunes downloading 720p trailers as you are figuring out what to select and after you hit play by the time the trailers have finished playing enough of the movie is buffered for you to start watching the actual movie.
You can "see" it, but you can't buy it. Apple won't offer 720p. They said so. They'll offer standard NTSC 640x480.
Quote:
As I mentioned in the other thread it is the idiotic format war between HD-DVD and BR coupled with the bandwidth war between cable and telcos that makes this a viable play for HD. The HDMI and component ports out the back are the key indicator that 640x480 is not the likely resolution that iTV will operate at.
HDMI may indicate one thing, but the reality is, even with broadband a full-blown HD movie is one gigantic file, and this file needs to reside on your computer, not Apple's servers. Files of this size would chew through your storage very quickly. Who's offering 5-10TB home storage solutions by Q1 '07? I'd say this is a good play on Apple's part for the next 5-6 years. If they get entrenched now, they're doing the right thing.
You can "see" it, but you can't buy it. Apple won't offer 720p. They said so. They'll offer standard NTSC 640x480.
They said no for now. Not no forever. There is no need for 720p right now especially since the video chain is unprotected on the Mac. With the iTV the video chain is always encrypted (in some form) and decrypted at the display device. This is what the studios want. This is what Apple will be able to offer with iTV...and its compatible with not only their installed base but every windows XP box running iTunes.
This isn't something Yahoo can offer by themselves. Or Google. Only Sony and Microsoft are major contenders in this kind of integration IMHO.
If they don't offer 720p downloads with the iTV they might as well not even bother.
Quote:
HDMI may indicate one thing, but the reality is, even with broadband a full-blown HD movie is one gigantic file, and this file needs to reside on your computer, not Apple's servers. Files of this size would chew through your storage very quickly. Who's offering 5-10TB home storage solutions by Q1 '07? I'd say this is a good play on Apple's part for the next 5-6 years. If they get entrenched now, they're doing the right thing.
If your link can sustain the 5-6 Mbps data rates required for 720p/24 stream you have on demand 720p movies and a few minutes of storage are all that are required on your local computer to even out any streaming hiccups. Say about 2-3 trailers worth of DL.
If not, then you'll need to DL the entire movie the previous night or something...5-10GB or so of disk space. Mmm...did I do the math right? Whatever, it wont be terabytes of storage.
With ADSL2+ at 25Mbps, FiOS at 30Mbps, 100MBps VDSL2, DOCSIS 3.0 with higher cable data rates it wont be so long that a large population has the bandwidth required. In 2005 there were 2000 crews swarming Virginia laying down FIOS for Verizon. As slow and ponderous as telco are, when they want something done they have the capability to do so limited only by desire and not capability.
By 2010 half of Verizon should be at 15-100 meg FIOS (the rest on slow DSL). Half of SBC at 10-20Mbps ADSL2+. 10% of BellSouth will have 50Mbps+ from FTTC. 45% on 10-30Mbps DSL (using 2 lines).
iTV is a ver 1.0 that is being launched at a good time with competitors fighting among themselves (HD-DVD vs BR), HDTV market penetration increasing rapidly and an immense infrastructure being laid down by the telcos (Verizon is sinking $15-20B into thier FIOS buildout) that had been dragging their heels for over a decade on broadband. By the time we early adopters work out the early kinks a large chunk of the urban areas will have 10+ Mbps service.
iPod/iTunes took a little bit to ramp up too. Their timing is pretty damn good on iTV.
Comments
iTV does not address the fundamental question for it's being. What is the consumer advantage that makes it superior to other, simpler solutions, such as today's DVDs.
For iTV to work for me, I'd have to have (many) terabytes of instantly accessible movies. That just doesn't add up. I'd be a smarter consumer to simply buy DVDs or (if I'm willing to risk it, Blu-Ray discs).
Of course Apple knows all of this. I'm sure Apple has only given us part of the story and we will hear more detail about iTV in the near future.
The point of iTV, Front Row, iTunes, iPod is for the computer to be a media center that can provide content for various devices. I don't think Apple expects iTV to be a huge seller like the iPod, just an accessory for those who want it.
I have a friend who has a collection of over 200 DVD's if he would pay for a way to access them instantly. HD storage is getting cheaper and cheaper.
http://www.dvd-intelligence.com/main...nes_movies.htm
Broadband has 44.45% penetration in the household and 73% among active internet users. A potential market of 23% of some 48 million subscribers aint so bad.
http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0607/
Although I'd really only count 5Mbps+ cable and FIOS subscribers in this mix.
And perhaps WiMax in the future but I'm not holding my breath for Sprint to make that happen regardless of any 2008 claims.
Vinea
I mentioned a while back that Apple really needed a good way to "pull" content to the stereo/TV instead of pushing it like Airport Express does. iTV is that solution and it will change things without a doubt.
Digging around I saw that at $10 per movie 23% of broadband users were interested in iTunes movie. At $15 per movie 14% were interested.
http://www.dvd-intelligence.com/main...nes_movies.htm
Broadband has 44.45% penetration in the household and 73% among active internet users. A potential market of 23% of some 48 million subscribers aint so bad.
http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0607/
Although I'd really only count 5Mbps+ cable and FIOS subscribers in this mix.
And perhaps WiMax in the future but I'm not holding my breath for Sprint to make that happen regardless of any 2008 claims.
Vinea
Those numbers sound highly inflated, Vin. I don't expect a sea change of today's buying habits overnight. Not even in 2-3 years. People seldom immediately warm up to new ways of doing things. I realize there is a very small minority of people torrenting movies for viewing on personal viewing devices and computers, but the vast, vast majority of normal people could give two shits about that. They want cheap, fast and easy, and if they have to think about it, it will flunk their usability test.
Steve Jobs and Apple know EXACTLY what they're doing with iTV. When I was (finally) watching the Showtime video it hit me: Apple is re-inventing the home entertainment atmosphere. Sure the content isn't high def yet, and sure broadband isn't quite that fast yet, but look at the quality of a movie you can get without ever leaving your house or waiting for a Netflix movie to show up. With an iTV, you'll be able to access damn near every piece of media from your computer on your home entertainment center. Pretty amazing. This will be huge.
I mentioned a while back that Apple really needed a good way to "pull" content to the stereo/TV instead of pushing it like Airport Express does. iTV is that solution and it will change things without a doubt.
Actually, I like getting out of the house sometimes.
I totally agree with you. Where I stand is - The things iTV offered in the demo should be a few of the the bonus features that are accessible if you have a Mac or PC running iTunes. It should be a PVR like tivo device, but the things Apple is offering from the demo should be what happens if you own a computer, and if you own a Mac you should be able to access some more of Apples digital hub. Just running video iChats, and Photo-booth alone through a PVR with the bonus features would be a really cool product including all the other features at no extra cost. It would Just be one of the many more reasons to buy a Mac. I think they they came at this from the wrong direction. What they showed was pretty "ho hum" and messed up compared to a TIVO, DreamBox or a ReplayTV. Apple is bringing the computers to the TV, not enhancing TV for the typical TV user, and adding bonus features that you can't get elsewhere which is what they should have done.
I still think they should buy DreamBox, or Elgato, or better yet both, and come up with a more sensible product for the living room, and having limited set of computer accessibility apps from there would be best way to market this. As for right now I would prefer a good PVR/DVR device alone over what Apple just announced. I think Apple should have tried to beat that.
As I said in another thread: TiVo would defeat their iTMS sales. Why sell the cow when suckers buy the milk they can only drink out of Apple brand glasses? Plus, it's low-quality milk. It's like cat-milk or something.
iTMS: Cat-milk. Think about it.
Those numbers sound highly inflated, Vin. I don't expect a sea change of today's buying habits overnight. Not even in 2-3 years. People seldom immediately warm up to new ways of doing things. I realize there is a very small minority of people torrenting movies for viewing on personal viewing devices and computers, but the vast, vast majority of normal people could give two shits about that. They want cheap, fast and easy, and if they have to think about it, it will flunk their usability test.
Things can and do change fast, as soon as the price and service is right for the public. Sure it took time for DVR's, but NetFlix success forced a lot of changes at BlockBuster pretty fast. The logical evolution to the video rental market will be to the internet or OnDemand from the cable company. NetFlix and the "new BlockBuster" have basically set the pricing model for this at under $20/month. The restrictions will need to be modified, and the price may change slightly but this is a price and service that people are willing to pay for and want. Apple may not have it now, but if they want to reinvent the living room then they are going to need it or allow someone else access to their hardware/software delivery methods to provide the service.
Those numbers sound highly inflated, Vin. I don't expect a sea change of today's buying habits overnight. Not even in 2-3 years. People seldom immediately warm up to new ways of doing things. I realize there is a very small minority of people torrenting movies for viewing on personal viewing devices and computers, but the vast, vast majority of normal people could give two shits about that. They want cheap, fast and easy, and if they have to think about it, it will flunk their usability test.
Well of course they are inflated...they come from a market analyst.
With respect to iTV the "special sauce" that Apple typically brings to the table is the "it just works" factor. While there are media center extenders that attach to PCs today iTV should make it fast and easy. Cheap isn't an Apple specialty...but for the demographics that may not matter as much. Usability is an Apple specialty.
I expect it to be easier to use than cable VOD/PPV and hopefully work more consistently. In many ways this isn't a "new way of doing things" but the same way using a different underlying technology. The metaphor should be like any other iTunes purchase. Pick a title. Buy it. Hit play.
Vinea
Steve Jobs and Apple know EXACTLY what they're doing with iTV. When I was (finally) watching the Showtime video it hit me: Apple is re-inventing the home entertainment atmosphere. Sure the content isn't high def yet, and sure broadband isn't quite that fast yet, but look at the quality of a movie you can get without ever leaving your house or waiting for a Netflix movie to show up. With an iTV, you'll be able to access damn near every piece of media from your computer on your home entertainment center. Pretty amazing. This will be huge.
I mentioned a while back that Apple really needed a good way to "pull" content to the stereo/TV instead of pushing it like Airport Express does. iTV is that solution and it will change things without a doubt.
I would agre except that access means own in this case. If I'm gonna own it I want it HD looking forward. I'll purchase an HD lcd TV this fall and I doubt I'll buy any more standard DVDs when blue ray and HD DVDs show up. If Apple rented movies then It would be a different story.
iTV provides that for OSX. The HD content is streamed securely to the iTV box that then decodes it and makes sure that any protected content is only output on the HDCP compliant HDMI output or downrez'd on the component output. As a CE set top box that isn't a mini it should be moderately harder to hack.
Presumably current generation Macs could only view protected HD content downrez'd to 960x540. That's how Apple can get away with selling HD movies on iTunes and not many other folks. Proven security by controlling the entire distribution and display chain from software to hardware.
Sony and Microsoft can do that but Sony is a competitor (studio wise) and Microsoft doesn't have a proven iTunes like store yet. If they did the XP/MCE could stream to Xbox 360 extender would also fit the bill.
Vinea
ITV great start... can?t wait for Rev 2 0r 3 or a crazy cool mini!
I'm personally not interested in a product that requires I have a running computer just to duplicate what I could have with a regular DVD. That's ridiculous engineering-centric thinking. Not the usual Apple-like thinking. Netflix remains my entertainment provider choice for now. Let's rethink this one Apple.
Yeah, it sucks that the iTV is built solely for playing Movies.
Yeah, it sucks that the iTV is built solely for playing Movies.
I don't think that's what he's saying, and I doubt you missed it. He's unhappy with the fact that you have to have not only your TV, and iTV running, but also a computer. I agree with him. The computer part should have added bonus features to a TV product that works fine in the home all by itself.
I don't think that's what he's saying, and I doubt you missed it. He's unhappy with the fact that you have to have not only your TV, and iTV running, but also a computer. I agree with him. The computer part should have added bonus features to a TV product that works fine in the home all by itself.
I'd like to be able to put the computer to sleep, and then wake it up for sharing access, rather than keeping it on all the time.
But nathan22t makes a good point: People criticizing this are focusing on using this for iTunes movies. That's looking at it much too narrowly. This is a hub to take any media content you keep on your Mac - photos, music, iMovies you've made, your pr0n, whatever - and viewing it on the TV. It's something that Apple's airport currently only allows you to do with music, and with all the other types of media content that people keep on their computers, it's a very logical step.
How instant do you want it? I can see iTunes downloading 720p trailers as you are figuring out what to select and after you hit play by the time the trailers have finished playing enough of the movie is buffered for you to start watching the actual movie.
You can "see" it, but you can't buy it. Apple won't offer 720p. They said so. They'll offer standard NTSC 640x480.
As I mentioned in the other thread it is the idiotic format war between HD-DVD and BR coupled with the bandwidth war between cable and telcos that makes this a viable play for HD. The HDMI and component ports out the back are the key indicator that 640x480 is not the likely resolution that iTV will operate at.
HDMI may indicate one thing, but the reality is, even with broadband a full-blown HD movie is one gigantic file, and this file needs to reside on your computer, not Apple's servers. Files of this size would chew through your storage very quickly. Who's offering 5-10TB home storage solutions by Q1 '07? I'd say this is a good play on Apple's part for the next 5-6 years. If they get entrenched now, they're doing the right thing.
You can "see" it, but you can't buy it. Apple won't offer 720p. They said so. They'll offer standard NTSC 640x480.
They said no for now. Not no forever. There is no need for 720p right now especially since the video chain is unprotected on the Mac. With the iTV the video chain is always encrypted (in some form) and decrypted at the display device. This is what the studios want. This is what Apple will be able to offer with iTV...and its compatible with not only their installed base but every windows XP box running iTunes.
This isn't something Yahoo can offer by themselves. Or Google. Only Sony and Microsoft are major contenders in this kind of integration IMHO.
If they don't offer 720p downloads with the iTV they might as well not even bother.
HDMI may indicate one thing, but the reality is, even with broadband a full-blown HD movie is one gigantic file, and this file needs to reside on your computer, not Apple's servers. Files of this size would chew through your storage very quickly. Who's offering 5-10TB home storage solutions by Q1 '07? I'd say this is a good play on Apple's part for the next 5-6 years. If they get entrenched now, they're doing the right thing.
If your link can sustain the 5-6 Mbps data rates required for 720p/24 stream you have on demand 720p movies and a few minutes of storage are all that are required on your local computer to even out any streaming hiccups. Say about 2-3 trailers worth of DL.
If not, then you'll need to DL the entire movie the previous night or something...5-10GB or so of disk space. Mmm...did I do the math right? Whatever, it wont be terabytes of storage.
With ADSL2+ at 25Mbps, FiOS at 30Mbps, 100MBps VDSL2, DOCSIS 3.0 with higher cable data rates it wont be so long that a large population has the bandwidth required. In 2005 there were 2000 crews swarming Virginia laying down FIOS for Verizon. As slow and ponderous as telco are, when they want something done they have the capability to do so limited only by desire and not capability.
By 2010 half of Verizon should be at 15-100 meg FIOS (the rest on slow DSL). Half of SBC at 10-20Mbps ADSL2+. 10% of BellSouth will have 50Mbps+ from FTTC. 45% on 10-30Mbps DSL (using 2 lines).
iTV is a ver 1.0 that is being launched at a good time with competitors fighting among themselves (HD-DVD vs BR), HDTV market penetration increasing rapidly and an immense infrastructure being laid down by the telcos (Verizon is sinking $15-20B into thier FIOS buildout) that had been dragging their heels for over a decade on broadband. By the time we early adopters work out the early kinks a large chunk of the urban areas will have 10+ Mbps service.
iPod/iTunes took a little bit to ramp up too. Their timing is pretty damn good on iTV.
Vinea