Despite inferiority, Zune likely to see modest success - analyst

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  • Reply 21 of 42
    maccrazymaccrazy Posts: 2,658member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox


    Plus, big hits on battery life and sharing enabled only on "promotional" songs make the WiFi gimmick pretty much a non-starter, in my book. Of course, the MS idea of "competing" has always been "add features", so it's not at all surprising this is the tack they'd take.



    This is where Apple differs - it generally innovates and finds a different way of doing things. Maybe Microsoft should should try Thinking Different against Apple. Thinking the same only creates a poorer imitation of a very good product.
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  • Reply 22 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox


    If "features" make an MP3 player competitive with the iPod, we would have seen erosion of iPod market share already. Instead, we see relentless growth, even as Samsung, iRiver, Creative, SanDisk et al pile on "features" till the cows come home.



    WiFi, as implemented by MS, is not even a compelling "feature", at that. It's usefulness is entirely dependent on robust sales of the Zune, or else you have nobody to share with. But, robust sales of the Zune depend on perceiving WiFi as desirable, even after early adopters go wandering around looking for the one in a thousand they can link to. Classic chicken and egg, and almost impossible to overcome without some other compelling reason to buy at the outset.



    Plus, big hits on battery life and sharing enabled only on "promotional" songs make the WiFi gimmick pretty much a non-starter, in my book. Of course, the MS idea of "competing" has always been "add features", so it's not at all surprising this is the tack they'd take.



    The PDA market is a poor comparison, as the "PDA ecosystem" is limited to the software that lets you synchronize data from your computer, which isn't exactly a barrier to entry, and seamlessness across desktop and PDA apps, which allowed MS to once again leverage their OS monopoly. Palm had nothing like the iPod/iTS lock-in to protect their early lead.



    The Zune has to create an entire new world of: lots of Zunes for sharing to be even remotely useful, all new song purchases with an all new DRM (no playing all your "Plays For Sure" stuff), adapters for cars and stereos, cars and stereos with Zune compatibility built in, amplified speaker docks, cases, sports monitors, lanyards, arm bands, marketing tie ins, media store library depth, podcasts, etc., etc., to even begin to get traction. No game makers to buy to goose sales, ala the Xbox.



    And as I have said elsewhere, I don't see any evidence that MS is particularly good at consumer system integration. The Xbox was supposed to be MS's back door into the living room, remember? A computer in its own right, with internet connectivity and a DVD player? Hasn't exactly merged with the audio and video systems, has it? Or how about Media Center? Sure, they can point to sales figures, but that's just because a lot of PC vendors license it as a sales incentive. How many people have made a Media Center PC the center of their media?



    And now Zune is supposed to take its place in this "framework"? And I don't think anybody would argue that Xbox/Media Center/Zune represents any kind of methodical strategy for locking up the living room.



    Apple really has the upper hand here, not just on the appeal of the hardware but the systematic approach they've taken to laying the groundwork for genuine digital media ubiquity in the home, in their OS, in their apps and in their devices.



    I see where Apple has done well with iTunes/iPod integration, and the iPod's UI; that's why I bought a 5g ipod, but my point is, there is still room for improvement. Apple can't just rest on their laurels, that's why I brought up Palm - now they are making Windows Moble phones, as well as POS phones. Every version of iTunes gets bigger and more bloated, while MS has made improvements with WMP 11.



    The other WMA DAP's makers couldn't market themselves, Creative - most PC users use Soundblaster cards, but I've never seen a commercial for the Vison:M. Sony has screwed up with Sonicstage and ATRAC. Apple - I have no use for AAC, because no other DAP uses it, and it's just as bad as WMA and I refuse to be tied to a format that uses DRM. Most of the iPod accessories are a waste of money IMO, but if there is a market for it, I don't see why manufacturers could offer an swappable iPod/Zune dock module.



    Also, depending on how well the Zune does, MS could leverage their experience with Windows Mobile, and I don't see what Apple has to counter the x360/Media Center at all; most users still use Windows and the Mac Mini is terribly underpowered to match most SFF PC's, and I can't see myself playing an iTunes movie when DVD's are nearly as cheap and better quality.
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  • Reply 23 of 42
    maccrazymaccrazy Posts: 2,658member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by guinness


    I have no use for AAC, because no other DAP uses it, and it's just as bad as WMA and I refuse to be tied to a format that uses DRM. Most of the iPod accessories are a waste of money IMO, but if there is a market for it, I don't see why manufacturers could offer an swappable iPod/Zune dock module.



    I agree that Apple can not rest and stop improving both iTunes and iPod. I also agree that Windows Media Player 11 is a very good product - Apple has already copied a few things from it. I however, refute your comment about AAC. WMA is a closed format - only used by Windows Media Player and not supported by other media players. AAC is open-source and therefore can be used by anyone; in fact Sony support AAC in their Sony Ericsson Walkman phones.
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  • Reply 24 of 42
    lundylundy Posts: 4,466member
    Quote:

    I have no use for AAC, because no other DAP uses it, and it's just as bad as WMA and I refuse to be tied to a format that uses DRM.



    AAC does not imply DRM. You can purchase a CD in a store and rip it to AAC and there is no DRM on it.
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  • Reply 25 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram


    If Wu is right, and MSFT is losing $50 on each Zune sold, they could be indulging in what economists call "price-dumping" -- i.e., the practice of charging a price less than cost in a market for such purposes as putting rival suppliers out of business.



    See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dumping...cing_policy%29



    Shouldn't one of the rival Windows MP3 player manufacturers be contacting the US Commerce Department and/or the International Trade Commission?







    Price dumping happens all of the time. Wal-mart uses it by allowing new stores operate at losses with support from the corporate office until competitors are run out of town, THEN the store raises prices to create a profit.



    To stop this "free market" strategy, we need a real Justice Department, again.
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  • Reply 26 of 42
    addaboxaddabox Posts: 12,665member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by guinness


    I see where Apple has done well with iTunes/iPod integration, and the iPod's UI; that's why I bought a 5g ipod, but my point is, there is still room for improvement. Apple can't just rest on their laurels, that's why I brought up Palm - now they are making Windows Moble phones, as well as POS phones. Every version of iTunes gets bigger and more bloated, while MS has made improvements with WMP 11.



    The other WMA DAP's makers couldn't market themselves, Creative - most PC users use Soundblaster cards, but I've never seen a commercial for the Vison:M. Sony has screwed up with Sonicstage and ATRAC. Apple - I have no use for AAC, because no other DAP uses it, and it's just as bad as WMA and I refuse to be tied to a format that uses DRM. Most of the iPod accessories are a waste of money IMO, but if there is a market for it, I don't see why manufacturers could offer an swappable iPod/Zune dock module.



    Also, depending on how well the Zune does, MS could leverage their experience with Windows Mobile, and I don't see what Apple has to counter the x360/Media Center at all; most users still use Windows and the Mac Mini is terribly underpowered to match most SFF PC's, and I can't see myself playing an iTunes movie when DVD's are nearly as cheap and better quality.



    Certainly Apple can't rest on their laurels, nor do they appear to be. On the other hand, they need not rush to add every feature that gets included in another MP3 player to remain competitive.



    Earlier on in the iPod's march to domination many people would claim that if Apple didn't hurry up and add a recorder or a radio or a user replaceable battery to the iPod they would see their market lead slip away. Obviously, that didn't happen, but there's still a mentality that "new features" are always going to drive people to some other product.



    Apple explicitly rejects that model in favor of simplicity. Guess what? The market has voted, Apple is right. People would prefer an elegant device that does a few things really well to a button studded swiss army knife.



    MS "leveraging Windows Mobile" actually goes in exactly the wrong direction, IMO. If MS starts larding the thing with apps and extra menus and icons it just becomes a pain in the ass. The PDA thing is completely a different deal-- getting a small portable device to integrate with your major productivity apps is a win for certain vertically integrated businesses. It is not a consumer win, and, in fact, consumers started abandoning PDAs as a stand alone device not long after MS managed to take over the market (coincidence, probably ). Well, that and the fact that most people were using PDAs just to keep contacts and a calendar, and it turns out you can do that really simply as a sub-set of another portable device's features. So while MS was busy making PDAs more complicated with more "features", the market was moving elsewhere.



    Apple doesn't have to "counter" the Xbox/Media Center because the vast majority of users are playing games on their Xbox and using their Media Center PC as a standard issue computer. MS hasn't made integration across devices plus easy to use software compelling enough to get people using them that way. I can't see where Zune brings anything to that table.
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  • Reply 27 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lundy


    AAC does not imply DRM. You can purchase a CD in a store and rip it to AAC and there is no DRM on it.



    Well you can do the same with WMA, but neither are the standard that a format like MP3's are, even Sony devices now support MP3's, as well as ATRAC. It's just that ATRAC ties me to Sony, AAC ties me to Apple, WMA ties to Microsoft, even though all are probably better, more modern formats that MP3. MP3 just allows me to move between players if I choose, without losing quality recoding formats or worrying about licensing rights with purchased music.



    DRM sucks, becuase it limits what you can do with music that you've actually paid for.
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  • Reply 28 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by guinness


    Well you can do the same with WMA, but neither are the standard that a format like MP3's are, even Sony devices now support MP3's, as well as ATRAC. It's just that ATRAC ties me to Sony, AAC ties me to Apple, WMA ties to Microsoft, even though all are probably better, more modern formats that MP3. MP3 just allows me to move between players if I choose, without losing quality recoding formats or worrying about licensing rights with purchased music.



    DRM sucks, becuase it limits what you can do with music that you've actually paid for.



    You know what the other name for AAC is?



    MP4. For real.
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  • Reply 29 of 42
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by gregmightdothat


    You know what the other name for AAC is?



    MP4. For real.



    Yup. Its amazing how many folks I've dropped that particular bomb on, right after they've gotten through screaming how great MP3 is and how they hate that 'propreitary Apple format', which ironically isn't proprietary at all- it was made by the MPEG group, and it really is the natural successor to MP3.



    If I was Apple, I would just refer to it as MP4 going forward, since that is what it really is. 8)
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  • Reply 30 of 42
    maccrazymaccrazy Posts: 2,658member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by guinness


    Well you can do the same with WMA, but neither are the standard that a format like MP3's are, even Sony devices now support MP3's, as well as ATRAC. It's just that ATRAC ties me to Sony, AAC ties me to Apple, WMA ties to Microsoft, even though all are probably better, more modern formats that MP3. MP3 just allows me to move between players if I choose, without losing quality recoding formats or worrying about licensing rights with purchased music.



    DRM sucks, becuase it limits what you can do with music that you've actually paid for.



    I agree that DRM is bad - I also do not like the quality downloaded so I still buy CDs. ATRAC and WMA are closed formats - owned and licensed by Sony and Microsoft. AAC is open-sourced, owned by the community and can be used by anyone. I do agree that not many MP3 players support M4A but it's still available to those manufacturers if they want it. It's not Apple restricting it's use.



    Incidentally, M4A was seen as the next standard of MP3.
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  • Reply 31 of 42
    chuckerchucker Posts: 5,089member
    I should note that, despite several claiming this here, AAC itself is not open-source. It is an open standard as part of MPEG-4, but several patents surround it, and licensing has to be done through Dolby's VIA licensing company.



    There is, however, an open-source implementation: FAAD/FAAC.
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  • Reply 32 of 42
    maccrazymaccrazy Posts: 2,658member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Chucker


    I should note that, despite several claiming this here, AAC itself is not open-source. It is an open standard as part of MPEG-4, but several patents surround it, and licensing has to be done through Dolby's VIA licensing company.



    There is, however, an open-source implementation: FAAD/FAAC.



    It is still not owned by Apple as guinness was suggesting.
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  • Reply 33 of 42
    chuckerchucker Posts: 5,089member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacCrazy


    It is still not owned by Apple as guinness was suggesting.



    Yeah, I know. I just wanted to clear up that the format itself is not "open-source". Ogg Vorbis is an example of an entirely open-source format, but its adoption has been, shall we say, less than satisfactory. It appears Microsoft has actually been trying to make companies not support it.

    Quote:

    The license prohibited makers of portable devices compatible with Windows Media Player from using non-Microsoft audio encoding formats. [..] In a possibly related decision, iriver recently dropped support for Ogg Vorbis from their latest H10 portable music player in order to market it with PlaysForSure certification.



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  • Reply 34 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Woody56292


    man Wu sounds so biased....



    specially when he notes that zune will cost 250 and the ipod sells for 249. big difference, eh. a big freakin' 99 cent difference.
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  • Reply 35 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hugodrax


    I dont get it, how many people do you really think are going to care about that WiFi feature and FM radio sucks, if FM radio actually had radiostations that played something other than prepackaged rotations maybe it would be of interest. Most radiostations are owned by clearchannel and play the same thing day in day out. This is why the mp3(iPod) players sell so well.





    I doubt it will sell well, especially at the same pricepoint as the iPod.



    I like fm tuners for the gym.... Specially when I want to listen to news.

    Alot better listening to what is happening on TV than getting podcasts of yesterday's news.
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  • Reply 36 of 42
    maccrazymaccrazy Posts: 2,658member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Chucker


    Yeah, I know. I just wanted to clear up that the format itself is not "open-source". Ogg Vorbis is an example of an entirely open-source format, but its adoption has been, shall we say, less than satisfactory. It appears Microsoft has actually been trying to make companies not support it.



    No that was a good point you made - I was under the impression AAC was actually open-source so I am grateful for your correction!
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  • Reply 37 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram


    If Wu is right, and MSFT is losing $50 on each Zune sold, they could be indulging in what economists call "price-dumping" -- i.e., the practice of charging a price less than cost in a market for such purposes as putting rival suppliers out of business.



    See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dumping...cing_policy%29



    If you read that link, it says dumping is defined as selling below cost in a foreign market. Doesn't say it's illegal to sell below cost in your own country, which is what MS is doing. It's an international trade issue.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by guinness


    I have no use for AAC, because no other DAP uses it, and it's just as bad as WMA and I refuse to be tied to a format that uses DRM.



    Not only is AAC not tied to DRM, AAC files that aren't protected can even be played by the Zune!
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  • Reply 38 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox


    Apple explicitly rejects that model in favor of simplicity. Guess what? The market has voted, Apple is right. People would prefer an elegant device that does a few things really well to a button studded swiss army knife.



    Any chance we can get Apple to make cell phones?
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  • Reply 39 of 42
    irelandireland Posts: 17,802member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by davidzLA


    Any chance we can get Apple to make cell phones?



    It will happen sometime in the next 3 years. Frankly I'm running out of patience, this iPhone better be worth the wait, cause it's taking 5 friggen years to get out the door.
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  • Reply 40 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacGregor


    Price dumping happens all of the time. Wal-mart uses it by allowing new stores operate at losses with support from the corporate office until competitors are run out of town, THEN the store raises prices to create a profit.



    To stop this "free market" strategy, we need a real Justice Department, again.



    1) I agree that we need a stronger Justice Dept.



    2) Re. Wal-Mart: Can you point to any proof at all for such a sweeping assertion?



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