Source: Three iPods on Apple roadmap for 2007

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  • Reply 41 of 63
    sunilramansunilraman Posts: 8,133member
    I actually *was* thinking this morning about the iPod line, once the iPhone and widescreen iPod (I've christened it iPod movie) are released.



    At this stage Steve Jobs is negotiating hard, but not so hard, I think they're in the finalisation stages for movies from Fox, WB, Universal, Paramount, Sony. At least three studios should be on board before iTV comes out. iTV will continue on with near-DVD-quality IMHO, and iTunes Store Movies may offer rental services. Rental and purchase options, 802.11g/pre-n iTV, this will be synergised with the iPod movie.



    So, quite a few things have to come together for a blowout January and February 2007 announcements. Something beyond the iPhone and "look new Macs... wooooo".



    Consolidation of the iPod line is sensible, mainly it is the replacement of the 5th G iPod video with widescreen touch iPod movie. That gives, iPod Shuffle, iPod Nano, and iPod Movie. iPhone, two separate models, will be a bold move but Apple needs to open up that market, they've got huge momentum as everyone knows.



    So core stuff in place, would be:

    iPod Shuffle

    iPod Nanos

    iPod Movie

    iTV

    At least 4 movie studios including Disney

    Rental/ Purchase model for movies

    TV shows

    Music

    iPhone

    Macs --- some surprises here? :: Leopard 10.5



    Sad to say, the rest of the world will just have to slowly catch up. US is the primary market, followed by UK and Europe, then Japan, Australia, Singapore, then filled out by the rest of the world (developing countries).



    iPhone GSM unlocked can easily follow the extremely wide availability of iPods around the world. iTunes Store for TV and movies is not that important globally because of 1. Piracy concerns 2. Studios being d*cks. But there's enough CD-ripping and (sadly?) pirating of music to keep the flow of iPods and iPhone globally. Macs continue to gain ground globally, but IMHO "Convergence"/ iTV/ HDTV with Macs and other Apple product ecosystem will *have* to happen in the US first.
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  • Reply 42 of 63
    sunilramansunilraman Posts: 8,133member
    Side note: I know designers (non-photo/video pros) have moved strongly to PC because of oh, let's say about 1 year without solid performance of Adobe/Macromedia on the latest Macs... But by March-April 2007 there should be AdobeCS3 full Universal Adobe/Macromedia suite, a good upgrade and snaptastic performance on PCs and Macs, multicore support, a solid market for designers using Macs going into end of 2008.



    Adobe would appreciate as well, the revenue for those Mac users still on CS1, holding off CS2 upgrade until CS3 comes out. Acrobat 8 suite workflow is a side deal with Macs, it's probably heavily PC-oriented at this stage -- if it is used majorly in corporate situations for document management. Otherwise, from a designer-on-a-Mac point of view, I feel Adobe Acrobat Pro 6.0+ is good enough at this stage alongside CS1 and Macromedia MX2004. Macromedia Studio 8 is *not* Universal.



    Though I must say Parallels is probably really shaking things up with Adobe CS2 and Studio8 on MacIntels, probably decent performance there for designers.



    I think iPhone and iTunes Movies and the iPod movie will be enough as key products for 1st half of 2007. Initial market euphoria seems to have died down with the shares but there's enough in 1st half of 2007 to push $100. Anyway the euphoria will push past $90 (probably) pre-Macworld SF2007 Jan, a re-energising after the Christmas frenzy.
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  • Reply 43 of 63
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sunilraman


    I actually *was* thinking this morning about the iPod line, once the iPhone and widescreen iPod (I've christened it iPod movie) are released.



    If Jobs goes in that direction with the nomenclature I'd bet on iPod Cinema over iPod Movie.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sunilraman


    At least 4 movie studios including Disney

    Rental/ Purchase model for movies



    Are you suggesting that this will be announced at MacWorld. I figure that they will be on the iTS as quickly as humanly possible once the contracts are signed. I like the idea of a rental service but there are some logistical issues with using that model with digital content that make it tough to execute.
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  • Reply 44 of 63
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism


    If Jobs goes in that direction with the nomenclature I'd bet on iPod Cinema over iPod Movie.



    Yeah iPod Movie or iPod Cinema. To replace iPod Video



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism


    Are you suggesting that this will be announced at MacWorld. I figure that they will be on the iTS as quickly as humanly possible once the contracts are signed. I like the idea of a rental service but there are some logistical issues with using that model with digital content that make it tough to execute.



    MacWorld would be a nice "We are proud to announce...." thing. It's so hard to tell.
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  • Reply 45 of 63
    I thought that the name "iPod" came from Apple not wanting to label, and limit, what their little drives could be used for. I don't know if that's correct, but it made sense to me if it was the case.



    I'd rather see them call the next gen iPod an "iPod", and obviously list it's capabilities.. photos, video, audio, etc. Maybe they will want to make a distinction with the first versions of Apple's cell phone/iPod because of the possible compromises the iPod half will have to make on behalf of the cell phone. As cramming all the tech becomes a simpler, less expensive, process, I'd hope they'd just refer to them as iPods. I don't see a need for "iPod Calendar/Photo/Tetris/Video/Contacts/Wifi/etc". I figured the names were to distinguish the less dynamic versions of iPods from "The iPod". Shuffle, Nano, iPod, iPhone? all make sense to me. Either I'm wrong in assuming that people who want their ipods to play music will still purchase a 120gb, larger screen, wireless?, ipod, or like me, they will see it as another great part of purchasing an actual iPod, rather then ones made for specific reasons/price ranges. I admit, I am a fan of the iSwiss-Army-Knife-Pod concept, as long as they can keep it simple, and beautiful, as only they can.



    Having said that, when can we expect "iPod Sudoku"?



    Oh, and one more not so related thing... If Apple were to make a wireless iPod, wouldn't that greatly expand the potential for 3rd party products to work seemlessly, i.e., somesthing like the Nike thing but w/o the need for the part that physically connects to the iPod?
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  • Reply 46 of 63
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by LotharSNL


    If Apple were to make a wireless iPod, wouldn't that greatly expand the potential for 3rd party products to work seemlessly, i.e., somesthing like the Nike thing but w/o the need for the part that physically connects to the iPod?



    Possibilly, with a hack, as the transmitter is a proprietary signal. The problem is that a regular strength, internal 802.11g receiver/transmitter adds a great deal of bulk, cost, weight, and dimished battery life without really adding any useful features.



    How many of us run out of cell phones minutes and and would disconnect a call so we can reconnect with Skype or iChat via a WiFi network that we just entered? What other uses does WiFI offer?

    No need for tiny, yet fast cable to sync my content and charge my device when there is a slow battery eating WiFi connection instead?

    The possibility to "squirt" my music to other iPods? Apple's current sharing model allows you to listen while other music in connected to your network. If that device left the imediate area that song would end, as well as leading to possible issues with a virus that spreads via portable devices. I am waiting for this to occur with the Zune.

    Seriously, what uses can you think of that make WiFI a useul feature against it's numerous cons (adiotnal weight, cost, dimished battery life)?
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  • Reply 47 of 63
    mcdavemcdave Posts: 1,927member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by aegisdesign


    Huh? The Zune isn't available outside the US (and Canada?) yet and has no video or TV services at all.



    I agree Apple needs to add these services outside the US before they can expect them to sell but people won't be turning to Zune as an alternative, because it isn't, even in the USA.



    I was referring (admittedly ambiguously) to the Zune having more advanced specs than the current 30GB iPod (bigger screen & wireless) and that most people will make a buying decision on those specs rather than the complete package (services & usability) especially with Xmas gift purchases being more impulsive-too much else to consider.



    I'm pretty sure Zune will be going global soon & unless Apple are up to speed with new devices and services it has the ability to become the default choice for music players. I agree with you, lack of global service coverage is Apple's real threat, though I think the networks/studios attempts so far have been quite fragmented (no real replacement for TV) and the iTS/iPod integration still stands up well but not without content.



    McD
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  • Reply 48 of 63
    sandausandau Posts: 1,230member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by McDave


    I was referring (admittedly ambiguously) to the Zune having more advanced specs than the current 30GB iPod (bigger screen & wireless)



    McD



    just remember the screen is bigger, but the resolution is exactly the same. and the wireless is limited.
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  • Reply 49 of 63
    sunilramansunilraman Posts: 8,133member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by McDave


    I was referring (admittedly ambiguously) to the Zune having more advanced specs than the current 30GB iPod (bigger screen & wireless) and that most people will make a buying decision on those specs rather than the complete package (services & usability) especially with Xmas gift purchases being more impulsive-too much else to consider.



    I'm pretty sure Zune will be going global soon & unless Apple are up to speed with new devices and services it has the ability to become the default choice for music players. I agree with you, lack of global service coverage is Apple's real threat, though I think the networks/studios attempts so far have been quite fragmented (no real replacement for TV) and the iTS/iPod integration still stands up well but not without content.



    McD



    Interesting points. Yeah I believe the key for 2007 is for Apple to get Fox, Sony, WB, Universal and Paramount on board with a rental or purchase iTunes Store legal movies download model. "It's the content, stupid" -- to paraphrase a saying from several years back, is what you're implying 8)



    Yeah what *is* fragmented are the legal music downloads, where Apple maintains a 75% or so global marketshare (just a rough figure because I haven't the time right now to run down the specifics). Legal TV Show downloads, very fragmented globally, and legal movie downloads, unheard of.



    As long as Apple gets the US iTunes Store to have at least 5 major movie studios (3-5 studios is the threshold at which all remaining major and minor studios will come on board so as not to "miss out"), Apple is in the clear.



    Microsoft can't get their URGE or MarketPlace or Squirting in place, and the Zune globally as many suspect will just chew up Creative and the rest, leaving maybe SanDisk standing.



    The iPhone, being hardware, and if GSM unlocked, and CDMA supporting, and 2.5G or 3G supporting, is the 2nd major goal in 2007 after iTunes Movies in USA. Because the iPhone can go global real fast right off the momentum of iPods. GSM/CDMA unlocked iPhone means virtually any carrier, any country. At a price premium just up from an iPod nano, not quite an iPod Video or iPod Cinema/ iPod Movie (widescreen touch ipod video higher-res thingy).



    Carriers and contracts are an issue, but as we've seen, if it is a hot phone, they'll roll it into their packages -- carriers around the world are definitely looking at the iPhone and actually, Apple does *not* have to worry too much -- as long as Apple has done its research on the mobile phone industry, the carriers will be salivating to bundle the iPhone with their 1-year or 2-year contracts. Some carriers, like Vodafone in Australia, will even allow a "softlock" instead of a "hardlock" into their network, for some phones.



    iPhone generation 1, 2 models, get it out 1st half 2007. iPhone generation 2, 2-3 models, get it out 2nd half 2007. Along with iPod Movie/ iPod Cinema and major movie studios, Apple *will* continue to have its lead and/or profits in the markets it plays in.



    The analogy I would put out is Zune is like a mosquito -- annoying and the bites hurt a little but you can just squash them if you choose to pay attention to them. Unless you develop an allergy, then you can be hurt more. Apple needs to stay "immune", I agree, to this Zune annoyance.
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  • Reply 50 of 63
    sunilramansunilraman Posts: 8,133member
    Ironically, actually, outside the US, iTunes Movies may come on much faster for a lot of countries instead of TV. That's because TV shows have a lot of messy deals with distribution in different countries whether it's cable, satellite, pay, free-to-air, whatever.



    But if you look at DVDs -- there is pretty much a predictable and specific global rollout of the latest DVDs for the whole world. Actually, ditto for DVD box sets.



    Let's forget the latest TV series. Let's look at DVD box sets and DVD movies available globally -- from the latest to the classics (for me "classics" means something like Terminator2. Heh.)



    There is a massive physical global market and everything is released widely to a ton of countries. If we sidestep "living in Australia or Japan or Spain and downloading the latest episode of Desperate Housewives", our minds can open up to the huge movie and TV legal download "global media database". From Terminator3 or MissionImpossible3 to Alias Season 1-4, Seinfeld Season 1-7, DeepSpaceNine Season 1-7, Babylon5 Season 1-5, etc etc.



    Bam! That's what iTunes Store needs to offer next, globally, in addition to music. iPod and iPhone, rocks on. These media titles are *all already cleared by the major tv and movie studios* because they're all out there on DVD.
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  • Reply 51 of 63
    sunilramansunilraman Posts: 8,133member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism


    Possibilly, with a hack, as the transmitter is a proprietary signal. The problem is that a regular strength, internal 802.11g receiver/transmitter adds a great deal of bulk, cost, weight, and dimished battery life without really adding any useful features.



    How many of us run out of cell phones minutes and and would disconnect a call so we can reconnect with Skype or iChat via a WiFi network that we just entered? What other uses does WiFI offer?

    No need for tiny, yet fast cable to sync my content and charge my device when there is a slow battery eating WiFi connection instead?

    The possibility to "squirt" my music to other iPods? Apple's current sharing model allows you to listen while other music in connected to your network. If that device left the imediate area that song would end, as well as leading to possible issues with a virus that spreads via portable devices. I am waiting for this to occur with the Zune.

    Seriously, what uses can you think of that make WiFI a useul feature against it's numerous cons (adiotnal weight, cost, dimished battery life)?



    Heh. I use Bluetooth to download 20 megabytes or so (that's right, not 20 gigabytes) of AAC tunes (non-protected) off my iTunes folder onto my SonyEricsson v600i. Hella convenient. But yeah full blown WiFi for transfers of one to five to gigabytes of data for the iPhone, battery+speed considerations seem a bit formidable, possibly unnecessary. And 802.11g is starting to get sucky.
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  • Reply 52 of 63
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism


    but the name sounded strange to me when I first heard it since Pod referred to it's size/shape and not to what it does. I hope they go with something totally un-heard of. I half expect a term that means a joining of two things. A quick peruse to dictionary.com's Thesarus yeilds: iDuo, iSpan, iJibe, iConnect, iJoin, iMix, iFuse, iFlux, iFlow, iSwitch.*



    Yes, that's a good point. Motorola calls their phone the RAZR based on its shape. Although based on their record, "iPod Phone" probably is as likely as anything else.
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  • Reply 53 of 63
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sunilraman


    Bam! That's what iTunes Store needs to offer next, globally, in addition to music. iPod and iPhone, rocks on. These media titles are *all already cleared by the major tv and movie studios* because they're all out there on DVD.



    It will take awhile to get a global media store all worked out, although I anxiously await this development. (I would describe a global media store as having an integrated sales list available for purchase across all territories.) That's going to make things interesting. Getting all the distribution rights and royalties worked out is going to be a MASSIVE bear however. Lots of films have split distribution deals so one studio takes domestic and another international just for one complicated example. I'm not saying it's impossible, just that with all the money at stake and the legal talent sure to be deployed, it won't be overnight, probably like 5-10 years.
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  • Reply 54 of 63
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,954member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sunilraman


    Bam! That's what iTunes Store needs to offer next, globally, in addition to music. iPod and iPhone, rocks on. These media titles are *all already cleared by the major tv and movie studios* because they're all out there on DVD.



    I'm not sure what you are getting at, but currently new commercial formats often tends to require new contracts. A lot of contracts for VHS distribution had to be renegotiated for DVD. Sometimes there were weird things going on, such as DVD-Video being considered software, as in computer software because of the little bit of interactivity that the format offered, and that caused some headaches and delays. If you are arguing that it will eventually be that easy, maybe but the entertainment cartels have to change how they do business, and that's a slow process.
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  • Reply 55 of 63
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JeffDM


    I'm not sure what you are getting at, but currently new commercial formats often tends to require new contracts. A lot of contracts for VHS distribution had to be renegotiated for DVD. Sometimes there were weird things going on, such as DVD-Video being considered software, as in computer software because of the little bit of interactivity that the format offered, and that caused some headaches and delays. If you are arguing that it will eventually be that easy, maybe but the entertainment cartels have to change how they do business, and that's a slow process.



    Yeah, I don't expect things to be easy. I'm sure it was quite painful for DVD negotiations when things first started out, particularly with all that Region Coding rubbish ... I'm looking at points people haven't maybe considered recently. 1. The fact that there is a lot of existing DVD content that's available worldwide. 2. iTunes Music Store is clearly a global success. 3. Hopefully movie and tv studios are learning. They schedule more worldwide releases nowadays because places where they're delayed, tend to be flooded by pirated movies from the initial release countries, even before the movie shows up in these delayed countries. I think this has been a successful strategy for most Asian regions. It's like... Hmmm.. do I buy this pirated dodgy quality disc for $8, or maybe $12 and I just go and see the real thing on a big screen and nice sound.......



    I'm optimistic in my outlook that 1-3 above will mean a lot of content rolled out on iTunes Store for various countries, yes, over the course of 3-5 years.



    I also wanted to point out that we need to look at existing-DVD-catalogues as a huge source of iTunes Store material -- particularly older movies where clearing rights tend to be easier... as far as I understand.
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  • Reply 56 of 63
    mcdavemcdave Posts: 1,927member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sandau


    just remember the screen is bigger, but the resolution is exactly the same. and the wireless is limited.



    Now you know it & I know it but does Dad know it?
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  • Reply 57 of 63
    Dad might be getting an iPod shuffle
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  • Reply 58 of 63
    Well, my Dad anyway. 8) ...And I would have resisted successfully buying myself any iPod or iPod-related products. We'll see... 2 weeks to Christmas.
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  • Reply 59 of 63
    What if I told you that I knew the release date for the true video?



    What would you be?

    jealous

    not another one!

    suspicious

    yeah right!!
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  • Reply 60 of 63
    mcdavemcdave Posts: 1,927member
    All - shoot
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