UBS ups Apple target, says iPhone 'can thrive as a convergence platform'
Good grief. The numbers from this analyst actually make sense!
I think the cannibalisation rate is probably too high... this is not a iPod replacement yet, nor is the 'vPod' we've been waiting for (too small a memory) and in the first instance people will 'just buy them'
I also think sales projection for 2008 is conservative. I suspect that Apple will beat their target for 10M sales BY A MILE. There will undoubtedly be more than one iPhone class product by then.
I think the cannibalisation rate is probably too high... this is not a iPod replacement yet, nor is the 'vPod' we've been waiting for (too small a memory) and in the first instance people will 'just buy them'
I also think sales projection for 2008 is conservative. I suspect that Apple will beat their target for 10M sales BY A MILE. There will undoubtedly be more than one iPhone class product by then.
Comments
Good grief. The numbers from this analyst actually make sense!
I think the cannibalisation rate is probably too high... this is not a iPod replacement yet, nor is the 'vPod' we've been waiting for (too small a memory) and in the first instance people will 'just buy them'
I also think sales projection for 2008 is conservative. I suspect that Apple will beat their target for 10M sales BY A MILE. There will undoubtedly be more than one iPhone class product by then.
I think most of his numbers are low. They don't gibe with other analysts, or my own estimates.
But, I don't think Apple will sell more than about 12 to 15 million phones by the end of 2008. I gave a lot of reasons in the thread about it.
"We believe the iPhone is a 'stunner' -- far exceeding our expectations in terms of features, design and capabilities," analyst Ben Reitzes wrote in a note to clients Tuesday evening. "We are particularly excited about the iPhone's potential to boost revenue and earnings with not only hardware, but also services and accessories."
Meanwhile, Reitzes said his proprietary checks indicate that Apple had 'a very strong' fiscal first quarter, with momentum in Macs continuing and strong sales of iPods -- the shuffle and 2GB nano in particular.
"Given continued momentum in sales of core products, combined with the new products announced today, we are raising our estimates through [fiscal 2008]," the analyst told clients. "We believe Apple is not done innovating -- and expect the company to release new products throughout the year including new Macs and iPods, additional content partners and possibly even ultra-portable devices that should stimulate revenue re-acceleration throughout the year."
Reitzes raised his fiscal 2007 earnings-per-share (EPS) estimate to $2.87 (was $2.84) based on 25 percent revenue growth to $24.05 billion (was $23.76 billion) and operating margins of 13.3 percent (unchanged).
"Note that our estimates now call for iPod/iPhone unit sales of 54.6 million (was 54.1 million), including 850,000 iPhone units," he wrote. "As mentioned above, our estimates reflect an approximate 40 percent cannibalization rate of iPods to be conservative."
Given the impact from the iPhone as well as contribution from related accessories, the analyst also increased his fiscal year 2008 EPS estimate to $3.58 (was $3.35) based on 31 percent revenue growth to $31.5 billion (was $28 billion) and operating margins of 13.1 percent (was 13.6 percent).
An iPhone prototype runs Apple's iTunes Cover Flow software during Macworld Expo in San Francisco.
He said the revised 2008 estimates reflects iPod/iPhone unit sales of 70.7 million (was 66 million), including iPhone unit shipments of 7.4 million. "We cut our operating margin estimate based on the view that the mix shift toward fully featured smartphones could result in lower margins as Apple ramps sales," he explained.
In terms of Apple's recently-ended fiscal first quarter of 2007, Reitzes kept his EPS estimate unchanged at $0.80 based on 11 percent year-over-year revenue growth (+32 percent quarter-to-quarter) to $6.4 billion and operating margin of 14.2 percent.
"This estimate continues to factor in iPod unit growth of 18 percent year-over-year to 16.56 million, with a segment revenue decline of 9 percent year-over-year to $2.65 billion off a very difficult compare," he wrote. "Our estimate also factors in Mac unit growth of 44 percent to 1.8 million with revenue growth of 44 percent to $2.5 billion."
Reitzes reiterated his Buy rating on shares of Apple, upping his 12-month price target to $118 from $108.
[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]
I'm smelling the split I predicted months ago. Once the options scandal came to light I knew for sure a split was around the corner in jan. I'm so pissed at myself I wanted to buy some stock when it dipped but I didn't have the cheese. *sigh*
Steve: "...and there's one more thing... we still don't have the rights to call it iPhone... dammit."
Yeah, they do.
Yeah, they do.
Just a joke, mel. Just a joke.
Just a joke, mel. Just a joke.
I could be wrong on this too.
My wife, who is a lawyer, had gotten word through the "network" Tuesday, that Apple HAD signed the documents. She called me to tell me that. But, now that seems to be incorrect. It's odd. I can't imagine why.
I could be wrong on this too.
My wife, who is a lawyer, had gotten word through the "network" Tuesday, that Apple HAD signed the documents. She called me to tell me that. But, now that seems to be incorrect. It's odd. I can't imagine why.
Disinformation? Cisco trying to make a splash during CES? There are Cisco ads playing on CNN every 10 seconds tonight, and there's a chance the "lawsuit" could be part of a campaign, as lawsuits can only raise awareness in the good ole' USA...
Geek A: "Oooh, did ya hear, Apple's being sued over the iPhone name?"
Geek B: "Yeah, don't remember who was suing them..."
Disinformation? Cisco trying to make a splash during CES? There are Cisco ads playing on CNN every 10 seconds tonight, and there's a chance the "lawsuit" could be part of a campaign, as lawsuits can only raise awareness in the good ole' USA...
Geek A: "Oooh, did ya hear, Apple's being sued over the iPhone name?"
Geek B: "Yeah, don't remember who was suing them..."
Apparently, Apple is now contending that their phone is not similar to Cisco's VOIP phones.
Now, I no longer have any idea as to what's going on.
Apparently, Apple is now contending that their phone is not similar to Cisco's VOIP phones.
Now, I no longer have any idea as to what's going on.
They are making a distinction between a cell phone and a VOIP phone. Keep in mind...there are other manufacturers out there using "iPhone" in their product names right now.
In addition to concerns that the battery may not be changable, I am concerned about the openness of this device. "Platform" somehow implies to me that 3rd parties can climb onto that platform. If one can not load 3rd party software onto it, many potential users are going to be upset, myself included. Me, i'm a physician, and I pretty much need three palm apps to get through my work week: excel-to-go, ePocrates, and salling clicker. The last one I could live without, and since I'm a mac user, you'd think apple could divise a mac remote for a closed platform. But medical software? they're going to need help on this. ePocrates makes pocket PC, palm and web versions of their little suite, and it's simple enough, but really useful.
Now, everyone says all this stuff is moving to "the cloud", and from the internet we'll be able draw ad infinitum. epocrates has already written a desktop, web-based package for this. Why not just be happy with a thin-client, web-based experience? Two problems: first, those page loads were a little slow during that keynote. Second, if everything is moving to the cloud, that access had better be cheap. It had better have that all-you-can-eat feel to it, like broadband landlines do. This would need a paradigm shift. At this point, carriers price data plans like they're afraid you're gonna use them. They need to jump into the next century, drop the rates, and engender a dependence people can actually afford! If they do that, I don't care what software the device has, as long as the phone has safari: Spreadsheet? Safari. Crossword puzzle? Safari. Quicken? safari for that, too.
Apple: either open the platform so people can install software they use, or make "the cloud" a place you can afford to visit frequently. Otherwise, enjoy your 3-5 year lead, because J allard and microsoft are coming, and they're pissed.