Apple to see near 50% gross margin on each iPhone sale

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 57
    chuckerchucker Posts: 5,089member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by charliex View Post


    there is nothing special about the hardware



    And you came to that conclusion exactly how, seeing as

    1) the hardware isn't finalized

    2) we don't know half a thing about what components are used?
  • Reply 22 of 57
    kickahakickaha Posts: 8,760member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by charliex View Post


    how is that different from any other smarthpone, symbian, brew or windows ce , linux or one of the other many phone/computer combinations that already have had SDKs available for ages, with equally as powerful cpus and gpus ? some phones have more graphics power than the desktops did a few years ago, they have 3d acceleration, custom dsps, programmable shaders, powerful cpus and lots of memory and storage.



    And yet they're used... how much again? Hardly at all. I have a number of colleagues in the smartphone development world, and even they are drooling over the iPhone - because of what it represents to them as devs, not users.



    Quote:

    why does it have more potential than any other existing phone with a touchscreen, cpu and programmable os ?, not that i think a touchscreen is a great thing for a phone, but some do.



    Oh I dunno, maybe ease of development, mature APIs, being able to leverage an existing developer base...



    Quote:

    its got the typical apple polish, but there is nothing special about the hardware, the touchscreen might be innovative, but thats not revolutionary, just better , and only perhaps at that , personally i've never cared for a touchscreen phone.



    your baseline comparison is way off, the difference is just the design.



    Wow. So I take it you're a Linux user then, since features uber alles? Screw the interface or the usability, it doesn't matter, and as long as you have a feature list in a mile long bullet point structure, you win?



    Fine. In that case, there's no argument that will sway you, in my experience, so we'll agree to disagree.
  • Reply 23 of 57
    If you look at the video iPod market as well as the phone market things look better. There will be lots of iPhone purchases that are made to replace both the iPod & mobile. This "joint purchase" will be somewhat hidden when doing projections.



    The other side of the coin is the power of the Apple Store to sell the phones. How many people are going to walk into an Apple Store for one reason or another, play with the iPhone for a few minutes and decide that they want one. I have no doubts that the store will be able to not only sell it, but also have you set up & working when you leave the store.



    I'm thinking that there will be a backorder situation for the first 3 months the iPhone is on the market and Apple will hit their 1% target.
  • Reply 24 of 57
    pmjoepmjoe Posts: 565member
    Sorry, but I don't see how these numbers account for a completely overhauled UI and other software elements on OS X, likely required maintenance on that software, and also support costs for a new, unique product. Optimistically, those numbers may play out with a lot of sales (assuming all goes well for Apple and Cingular), but that's about it. Also, those prices usually don't bear out over more than a few months to a half-year. In other words, don't bet the bank on it.
  • Reply 25 of 57
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by b3ns0n View Post


    Yes, I do actually. If Apple doesn't go for a carrier exclusive deal, I know for certain that regardless of the changes required to the network, if I was the CEO of any carrier in (for example) the UK, I wouldn't want to be the only one NOT carrying the iPhone. I think they'll flock around it like bees around honey, and be practically falling over themselves to modify the network for visual voicemail. Then they can tout this as a feature of their network and other phone manufacturers will soon start offering it.



    I can't speak for the European market, but I do speculate that by the time the Cingular contract is over every major carrier will be offering these new network functions for the iPhone and other manufacturer's phones. I can't help but laugh that Apple has already disrupted the entire cell phone market with merely an announcement. How many cell companies execs are kicking themselves (or being kicked) for not getting an exclusive deal with Apple when they had the chance?





    The article states 512MB RAM. That is twice is much as I thought it would have. That rocks!



    Is the 128MB NOR Flash for OS X, or does the OS share space with the 4 or 8GB NAND?
  • Reply 26 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I can't speak for the European market, but I do speculate that by the time the Cingular contract is over every major carrier will be offering these new network functions for the iPhone and other manufacturer's phones. I can't help but laugh that Apple has already disrupted the entire cell phone market with merely an announcement. How many cell companies execs are kicking themselves (or being kicked) for not getting an exclusive deal with Apple when they had the chance?





    The article states 512MB RAM. That is twice is much as I thought it would have. That rocks!



    Is the 128MB NAND for the OS, or does it share space with the 4 or 8GB NAND?



    I'm fairly certain that an Apple representative, perhaps Greg Joswiak, stated that the OS occupies the main flash memory.
  • Reply 27 of 57
    chuckerchucker Posts: 5,089member
    Yep, according to Joswiak, the OS takes up "considerably less than half a Gigabyte", of the main flash memory.
  • Reply 28 of 57
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by audiopollution View Post


    I'm fairly certain that an Apple representative, perhaps Greg Joswiak, stated that the OS occupies the main flash memory.



    Thanks for the quick reply, audiopollution and Chucker.



    I just looked up NOR Flash on Wikipedia. Interesting stuff.
  • Reply 29 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by charliex View Post


    how is that different from any other smarthpone, symbian, brew or windows ce , linux or one of the other many phone/computer combinations that already have had SDKs available for ages, with equally as powerful cpus and gpus ? some phones have more graphics power than the desktops did a few years ago, they have 3d acceleration, custom dsps, programmable shaders, powerful cpus and lots of memory and storage.



    why does it have more potential than any other existing phone with a touchscreen, cpu and programmable os ?, not that i think a touchscreen is a great thing for a phone, but some do.



    its got the typical apple polish, but there is nothing special about the hardware, the touchscreen might be innovative, but thats not revolutionary, just better , and only perhaps at that , personally i've never cared for a touchscreen phone.



    your baseline comparison is way off, the difference is just the design.



    a pretty touchscreen doesn't make a phone either.

    there are lots of high resolution phones available, even with 32 bit colour.

    qualcomm integrates its hardware and software, as does sony ericsson, microsoft and nokia

    there are phones that run linux, its not macosx, but the iphone doesn't run it either, but thats neither here nor there, if you base your phone choice on the os you run, then you're not in a real comparison mode, you're just sticking with what you know/like.

    sony have put thousands of hours into hardware and ui design as well, thats why apple pinched a bunch of its vaio design people a few years.



    Most of the major phone manufacturers use a customized Symbian OS.

    I don't think this will result in the same level of hardware software integration.

    Palm & Windows smartphones are a joke.(A sad, sad joke)

    Linux while powerful lacks the polish and integration with hardware to compete.



    The reason things will be different is because Apple has an existing customer base, developer base and existing code base.

    Consumers want to buy it.

    Developers want to code for it.

    Their Apps are already basically done.

    Apple also has an amazing software distribution channel set up already in the iTunes Store.



    I realize the iPhone doesn't run MAC OS X but I'm so used to typing it.

    Watch this video then tell me that multitouch is not revolutionary.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXQhAlC6BBg

    Also multitouch IS revolutionary and patented.
  • Reply 30 of 57
    About Apple signing Cingular, or vs versa, follow the money. Current practice is a $200+ subsidy on a mid-priced phone and $400 for a highend model just to have a 1qtr exclusive is not out of the question.



    So Apple shows them a path to potentially add 10% to their subscriber base and at the same time double the 7% who purchase the most expensive plan offerings and suddenly you have a case for Apple selling these to Cincular at unblievable margins for the rollout phase. Of coure we will see more phones and other price points but we all know the 1st million will be snapped up so fast that there is no reason Apple shouldn't "sell" them as $1000+ phones with $500-600 subsidies.



    Abroad the subsidized model is not in place so it makes sense to milk the carrier here for a few months and then introduce the phones at $600-800 internationally. After 2-3 qtrs and around 3 million units selling to early adoptors and working out the kinks they gear up with broader offerings and aim to sell millions per qtr in the last half of "08.



    Raven
  • Reply 31 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kickaha View Post


    And yet they're used... how much again? Hardly at all. I have a number of colleagues in the smartphone development world, and even they are drooling over the iPhone - because of what it represents to them as devs, not users.



    Oh I dunno, maybe ease of development, mature APIs, being able to leverage an existing developer base...







    Wow. So I take it you're a Linux user then, since features uber alles? Screw the interface or the usability, it doesn't matter, and as long as you have a feature list in a mile long bullet point structure, you win?



    Fine. In that case, there's no argument that will sway you, in my experience, so we'll agree to disagree.



    nope, i make commerical games for cellphones, have done for 5 years, and i'm not a linux user either, i mentioned the linux phones as being available thats all.. all the smartphone developers (including myself) i know aren't all that interested in the iphone, because they know apple is going to severely limit who can do what on it like they do for the ipod. Apple will patent a bunch of stuff, and make us jump through a bunch of hoops to develop for, and it'll be a relatively small userbase, they've already limited themselves to cingular.





    ease of development, mature api's so the cellphones that are using OS's that have been in development longer than OSX don't have that already? I can already easily develop just about anything i want on just about any cellphone, our company has developed a mature api already. But i'm not entirely sure you are qualified to even talk about that.



    all you're basically saying is you've got no real quantifiable reasoning for why the iphone is better other than its got a touschreen and its a polished UI/useability, which it does, however thats got nothing to do with the original comment about how powerful it is underneath in comparision to other smartphones.



    i never said screw the ui or useability, those aren't the points in contention, the points are the relative power of other smartphones.



    But on that personal taste question, I dont yet know that the iphones ui makes it a better phone for me than my nokia, which would cost me $50 to replace, its unlocked, has pop3 email, music, browser, sms, mms, bluetooth, IR, a full flip out keyboard, camera, works in most places in the world, isn't limited to one carrier, talk time up in the 8 hour range, standby time in the order of days, and has a smaller volume, and it makes calls.
  • Reply 32 of 57
    I think people who are downplaying the impact of the the iPhone are forgetting one major thing.

    The iPhone as we saw it in the keynote is a beta of iPhone OS X 10.0.

    A year from now we will be discussing all the major new features in iPhone OS X 10.1



    Most other smartphones are pretty static development-wise.

    I bought my first smartphone in 2000. It was a Kyocera that ran the Palm OS.

    Palm has been in the Smartphone business for over 7 years and this is best they can do!!!



    I think the pace of iPhone OS X will mirror what we saw in Mac OS X.

    Every major release has been a quantum leap in functionality and performance.

    Imagine the iPhone in 7 years running iPhone OS X 10.5
  • Reply 33 of 57
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Quote:

    its got the typical apple polish, but there is nothing special about the hardware, the touchscreen might be innovative, but thats not revolutionary, just better , and only perhaps at that , personally i've never cared for a touchscreen phone.



    The same can be said for the iPod. It uses basically the same hardware as every other mp3 player. The UI makes all the difference in why the iPod dominates the market.
  • Reply 34 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post


    Most of the major phone manufacturers use a customized Symbian OS.

    I don't think this will result in the same level of hardware software integration.

    Palm & Windows smartphones are a joke.(A sad, sad joke)

    Linux while powerful lacks the polish and integration with hardware to compete.



    The reason things will be different is because Apple has an existing customer base, developer base and existing code base.

    Consumers want to buy it.

    Developers want to code for it.

    Their Apps are already basically done.

    Apple also has an amazing software distribution channel set up already in the iTunes Store.



    I realize the iPhone doesn't run MAC OS X but I'm so used to typing it.

    Watch this video then tell me that multitouch is not revolutionary.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXQhAlC6BBg

    Also multitouch IS revolutionary and patented.





    A couple of points



    Most do not use Symbian derivatives, Custom OS with J2ME is the largest userbase, both on userbase and deployment, the rest is split betwen symbian/REX/Brew, windows Ce and then all the others, linux/custom etc.



    I'm a consumer and a developer, and i don't want to buy it, i'd like to code for it, i'd like to code games for the ipod too, but i can't, i think its snazzy and cool and the kids at starbucks would ohh and ahh over it, but they do that over the RAZR too , and thats a piece of junk, so reflecting on that i can't say whats popular is necessary whats good.



    I personally think the iphones touchscreen is evolutionary, not revolutionary if it were a revolution then it'd change it all dramatically, it won't, its an important difference, there are such touchscreens in existance on other platforms, theres nothing in it we haven't already seen elsewhere, just not the specific elements on this platform yet. Most pure touchscreen phones on the cellphone market have failed, even when they've added a tactile keyboard like the p800 series. A patent says nothing these days except marketing, you can patent just about anything now, all it really says is you can't do this without paying us, or at all.



    As for itunes, sure its fine, but since i buy apps through the cellphone, i don't want to hook it upto to a desktop to buy stuff, and the carriers already have their own infrastructure in place already, Verizon have their get it now service, which allows you buy games, videos apps etc already and they have 100% coverage in their userbase, can't beat that, they're not going to give that up easily.



    its a great device, it looks cool, its also really expensive and its squarely aimed at a very small sector of the market, theres nothing wrong with that at all. If it were down in the 300/400 range i'd consider buying one.



    But there are lots of other really cool phones out there with much better hardware and featuresets, they may not have the polished UI of apple, they're really really good at design, but the rest of the companies aren't morons either. Again just look at the popularity of the RAZR.
  • Reply 35 of 57
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Quote:

    I personally think the iphones touchscreen is evolutionary, not revolutionary if it were a revolution then it'd change it all dramatically, it won't, its an important difference, there are such touchscreens in existance on other platforms, theres nothing in it we haven't already seen elsewhere, just not the specific elements on this platform yet.



    While I agree the iPhones touch screen is more evolutionary than revolutionary. Where I disagree is that others have done the same. I myself have never seen a touch screen phone that does exactly what the iPhone does.



    Which other touch screen UI allows scrolling with your finger, and allows velocity of scrolling to increase. Or two point touch at the same time. Or reorientation by physically turning the device. Or page enlargement from finger pinching. These are only what's been shown so far. There could be more in 5 months.
  • Reply 36 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    The same can be said for the iPod. It uses basically the same hardware as every other mp3 player. The UI makes all the difference in why the iPod dominates the market.



    Somewhat, I don't attribute the success of the ipod purely to the UI, i think apple marketed it very well and it was the right time for it. They made it very appealing, they're incredibly good at that.



    Again you can further extend it to the notebooks, the hardware is now basically the same, but the UI on OSX is much better, its gaining some ground, but its still a very small market, so the ipod was a huge sucess and beat all others hands down, the new powerbook didn't. I prefer the design of the Sony Vaios to the apple notebooks, I'd be happy running OSX on my X505 CP.



    So the quality of the UI doesn't necesarily mean it'll blow away the competition, there are a lot of factors.
  • Reply 37 of 57
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Quote:

    Somewhat, I don't attribute the success of the ipod purely to the UI, i think apple marketed it very well and it was the right time for it. They made it very appealing, they're incredibly good at that.



    A product that has to perform a task is not going to overwhelmingly dominate its market simply because the company is good at marketing. The product has to perform in some way better than its competition.



    Quote:

    Again you can further extend it to the notebooks, the hardware is now basically the same, but the UI on OSX is much better, its gaining some ground, but its still a very small market, so the ipod was a huge sucess and beat all others hands down, the new powerbook didn't. I prefer the design of the Sony Vaios to the apple notebooks, I'd be happy running OSX on my X505 CP.



    These two are not comparable. The Mac has no chance of having the success of the iPod and switching to intel was not going to make that happen.
  • Reply 38 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    The article states 512MB RAM. That is twice is much as I thought it would have. That rocks!



    First of all, it's a guess, since nobody has had access to it to see what's actually in there yet.



    And the article is guessing around 512 Mbit, whigh would actually be either 64 MiB (most likely) or 61 MiB (highly unlikely in the RAM world) depending on whether they're using conventional or SI units.



    Quote:

    Is the 128MB NOR Flash for OS X, or does the OS share space with the 4 or 8GB NAND?



    The execute-in-place property of NOR flash would make it an ideal place to store the static components of an OS. But half a gig of it... That would be getting expensive compared to NAND.

    More likely, it would be used to store any running programs when you shut off the phone so that they come back up in the same state when the phone is turned on again without having to waste standby battery power on the RAM.
  • Reply 39 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    While I agree the iPhones touch screen is more evolutionary than revolutionary. Where I disagree is that others have done the same. I myself have never seen a touch screen phone that does exactly what the iPhone does.



    Which other touch screen UI allows scrolling with your finger, and allows velocity of scrolling to increase. Or two point touch at the same time. Or reorientation by physically turning the device. Or page enlargement from finger pinching. These are only what's been shown so far. There could be more in 5 months.



    Someone may have done this but I haven't seen it.



    I've seen the FIC-GTA001 which has multi touch 'gestures' there are other devices that have that capability, that aren't phones but are handheld, the DS obviously, which is what i meant by other platforms.



    http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/smartphon...one-213016.php
  • Reply 40 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    A product that has to perform a task is not going to overwhelmingly dominate its market simply because the company is good at marketing. The product has to perform in some way better than its competition.




    I respectfully disagree, i also again point to the Motorola RAZR as an example, it dominated and its junk, but it was well marketed. I'd also vote up myspace as another example. There are plenty others. I think the Sony walkman dominated for a long time due to marketing too. I just don't think a product dominates anymore based on ability, its a rare thing.



    Quote:

    These two are not comparable. The Mac has no chance of having the success of the iPod and switching to intel was not going to make that happen.



    but it does point out there is a lot more to market dominance than featureset, you said the ipod is a UI success, i think its more than that, as the notebook comparison shows, otherwise why isn't enough ? there were plenty of mp3 players etc in the marketplace beforehand.
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