Wu states $5/GB in this latest analysis. iSuppli says $42.50 for 4GB from Samsung back in September for $10/GB. Given that the Samsung SSD uses the same flash as in the 4GB Nano the build cost for the 32GB Samsung SSD is $320 + controller and case without any new discounting since September of last year. Call it ballpark $7/GB for the whole kit at today's pricing (controller isn't that expensive).
32GB SSD for $600 this year is a no brainer. 32GB SSD for $300 this year depends on how high the SSD manufactures want their gross margins to be and volume pricing on the new 16Gb part. Most of the production will likely go to OEMs and not appear on the open market.
Vinea
That's why I said that 16 GB end of year is possible, but I don't see 32 until sometime next year, unless things take an unexpected turn.
That's why I said that 16 GB end of year is possible, but I don't see 32 until sometime next year, unless things take an unexpected turn.
I would say the opposite. $600 is a viable price today with the last generation NANDs. If Toshiba's 60% price erosion in 2007 holds then $300 is the EXPECTED price by mid year.
It would be unexpected if NAND pricing didn't drop to $5/GB if it isn't there already. Wu thinks it is. There's probably a price premium on the quad stacked packages but I would think even the Nano part is close to $6-7/GB at this point.
I don't know why you persist in saying "not this year" when analysts say we're AT that price now or by Spring. It's not like an ATA controller chip is all that expensive.
I would say the opposite. $600 is a viable price today with the last generation NANDs. If Toshiba's 60% price erosion in 2007 holds then $300 is the EXPECTED price by mid year.
It would be unexpected if NAND pricing didn't drop to $5/GB if it isn't there already. Wu thinks it is. There's probably a price premium on the quad stacked packages but I would think even the Nano part is close to $6-7/GB at this point.
I don't know why you persist in saying "not this year" when analysts say we're AT that price now or by Spring. It's not like an ATA controller chip is all that expensive.
Vinea
I don't think we'll see it until the end of the year. That's it.
There are too many "ifs" in the pricing structure for anyone to be so sure that we will see pricing that will allow Apple to come up with this in the time frame you would like.
The new memory uses less power, so I don't see Apple using the current memory in such large quantities in a device EVEN if the price somehow did drop to what you think it will, which, so far, I don't see.
That's almost on cue. I'm going to guess these are the current gen chips and not the newer ones soon to be available. Probably a price drop on the 1.8" to match this in 6 months unless Apple gobbles up all the supply.
Hmmm...$350 to volume buyers. Wonder who that will be...
Even if the price would be for Apple, it would still cost at least $700 in the finished phone, excluding whatever pricing is from the case, etc. The phone would cost at least $900 to $1,000.
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Wu states $5/GB in this latest analysis. iSuppli says $42.50 for 4GB from Samsung back in September for $10/GB. Given that the Samsung SSD uses the same flash as in the 4GB Nano the build cost for the 32GB Samsung SSD is $320 + controller and case without any new discounting since September of last year. Call it ballpark $7/GB for the whole kit at today's pricing (controller isn't that expensive).
32GB SSD for $600 this year is a no brainer. 32GB SSD for $300 this year depends on how high the SSD manufactures want their gross margins to be and volume pricing on the new 16Gb part. Most of the production will likely go to OEMs and not appear on the open market.
Vinea
That's why I said that 16 GB end of year is possible, but I don't see 32 until sometime next year, unless things take an unexpected turn.
That's why I said that 16 GB end of year is possible, but I don't see 32 until sometime next year, unless things take an unexpected turn.
I would say the opposite. $600 is a viable price today with the last generation NANDs. If Toshiba's 60% price erosion in 2007 holds then $300 is the EXPECTED price by mid year.
It would be unexpected if NAND pricing didn't drop to $5/GB if it isn't there already. Wu thinks it is. There's probably a price premium on the quad stacked packages but I would think even the Nano part is close to $6-7/GB at this point.
I don't know why you persist in saying "not this year" when analysts say we're AT that price now or by Spring. It's not like an ATA controller chip is all that expensive.
Vinea
I would say the opposite. $600 is a viable price today with the last generation NANDs. If Toshiba's 60% price erosion in 2007 holds then $300 is the EXPECTED price by mid year.
It would be unexpected if NAND pricing didn't drop to $5/GB if it isn't there already. Wu thinks it is. There's probably a price premium on the quad stacked packages but I would think even the Nano part is close to $6-7/GB at this point.
I don't know why you persist in saying "not this year" when analysts say we're AT that price now or by Spring. It's not like an ATA controller chip is all that expensive.
Vinea
I don't think we'll see it until the end of the year. That's it.
There are too many "ifs" in the pricing structure for anyone to be so sure that we will see pricing that will allow Apple to come up with this in the time frame you would like.
The new memory uses less power, so I don't see Apple using the current memory in such large quantities in a device EVEN if the price somehow did drop to what you think it will, which, so far, I don't see.
SanDisk is selling the 2.5-inch drive for $350 to large volume buyers. The flash memory maker's new flash drive sports 32GB of memory and is delivered in a package the same size and shape as a 2.5-inch diameter hard drive.
That's almost on cue.
Hmmm...$350 to volume buyers. Wonder who that will be...
Vinea
SanDisk is selling the 2.5-inch drive for $350 to large volume buyers. The flash memory maker's new flash drive sports 32GB of memory and is delivered in a package the same size and shape as a 2.5-inch diameter hard drive.
What would the 1.8" size be going for, I wonder?
Even if the price would be for Apple, it would still cost at least $700 in the finished phone, excluding whatever pricing is from the case, etc. The phone would cost at least $900 to $1,000.
I think its obvious if Apple did use these drives they will get a deep discount for high volume sales the same way they had in the past.
What if the rumor of the 32 GB flash video iPod are true. Its difficult to see Apple selling it for more than what it currently sells the 60 GB HD.
I think its obvious if Apple did use these drives they will get a deep discount for high volume sales the same way they had in the past.
It's a rumor. Also, Apple doesn't do business with SanDisk.
It's a rumor. Also, Apple doesn't do business with SanDisk.
It does with Toshiba and SanDisk and Toshiba are partnered on the SSD thing IIRC. In any case, Samsung has an equivalent SSD.
Vinea