Make all the profit you can in the market but take your profits and convert them from the US dollar and buy Gold. Gold will keep your equity protected from the deflating US dollar.
Do your own thinking and acting but consider the above.
Make all the profit you can in the market but take your profits and convert them from the US dollar and buy Gold. Gold will keep your equity protected from the deflating US dollar.
Do your own thinking and acting but consider the above.
Comparing the incomes of American men who were in their 30s in 2004 with males who were in their 30s in 1974, the researchers found that today's men actually earn about 12 percent less, after inflation, than their fathers' generation did. "There has been no progress at all for the youngest generation," the group reported. The American family stays afloat because its total income has been swelled by women's paychecks.
This is really very sad. You guys are missing out on one of the greatest Bull Markets ever (an undisputed fact) because of the nonsensical doom & gloom postings of people like trumptman. China and the global economy are booming. Many US companies are partcipating in that boom. Will the boom end? Perhaps. But not until at least August,2008 when China will host the Beijing Summer Olympics.
I suggest you take some time and do yourown research on what the prospects for a US recession are. And, don't take as gospel the predictions of anyone on a computer forum, whether they be bullish (me) or bearish (T-man). That's what you do in every other aspect of your life so why not do it for your money as well?
First I've not told anyone to cash out and get out of the market. I've said get some liquidity. For a country with a negative savings rate, this isn't bad advice. We have many people who no longer practice financial management, instead they practice debt management as financial management. They think that having no savings, living on the edge, but being able to make all their monthly payments is "financial management." The concept of emergency funds, rainy day accounts, or even not putting the car brake job on a credit card has become a foreign concept to many Americans.
When I started the thread I noted that since many people on here are not as "ehem".. ah... experienced as I am in terms of age, they have actually gone through an economic downturn. They've never watched any sort of credit become more expensive to acquire or even be tightened. Even now the overnight rate is basically neutral with regard to the fed and people are acting like it is the early 80's with ol' Paul giving us 21% overnight rates.
That sort of thinking is harmful to the parties undertaking it. I've not said there wasn't money to be made, quite the opposite. I've never said sit on the sidelines, again quite the opposite because many items go at a discount when the excess credit is squeezed out and people still need cash.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea
Who's missing out? Trumptman is sitting on no more than $10K. I have a pile of cash because we expected to have to put a down payment on a house but that isn't all my assets and I'm looking to get back in. trailmaster308 is the only one out of the market.
Also, my reading of the Chinese is that they indictated in June that they are unwilling to allow the bubble to continue to grow until after the Olympics and has allowed their market to adjust and increased the stock trading stamp tax to try to achieve a softer landing. The Shanghai composite looks to have leveled out without becoming a smoking hole. If they can stay comfortably above 3000 through the Olympics they'll have a soft landing and a good basis for future growth. If they hit 5000 they're going to pop and thud. IMHO from very casual analysis.
Vinea
Bingo. I've not said get out. I've said get some liquidity. We are talking about a widespread mentality where people would put 0% on a home with a balloon payment and believe the appreciation would allow them to refinance into a conventional mortgage a couple years down the rode. This mentality is dangerous. The belief you can continue to use the house as a ATM, or use it to reconfigure debt is very harmful in circumstances such as we have now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship
There is always money to be made..
I have just made over $1,300 in three trades in and out of COH
Coach handbags are very popular with the ladies and their stock only goes up over the long haul.
Fellows
Right, but money has been cheap for so long that people never figured borrowing it into their rate of return. The time is changing on that mentality.
Also not to toot my own horn, but I'll note that I bought and have held a significant sum of PVX at $9.99... today closed at $12.16... add another 6-7% gain for the monthly dividend.
How appropriate is it that this pseudo-financial thread on an Apple Computer site is running concurrent with the John Mackey scandal. For those unfamiliar with this topic, here are 2 clips from CNN Money and Business Week:
------------------------------------------------
"Whole Foods Market, the US natural and organic supermarket chain, has built its successful brand around a set of company "core values" that are highly focused on corporate integrity.
But Whole Foods' reputation and its troubled $565m bid to take over main rival Wild Oats have both suffered a setback with revelations that John Mackey, its co-founder and chief executive, had been anonymously attacking his eventual takeover target on an investors' online message board."
"John Mackey’s penchant for proselytizing under a fake name has proven more potent than he would have thought. Bear Stearns analyst Robert Summers thinks the Federal Trade Commission could now succeed in stopping Mackey’s Whole Foods Market from buying Wild Oats.
The reason isn’t simply that Mackey was trashing Wild Oats on Yahoo! boards under the name Rahodeb without noting his position as Whole Foods CEO...."
------------------------------------------
Don't listen to anyone's financial advice on an internet chat site. Do your own research and make your own decisions.
Here is an article that really hits home with regard to this.
Quote:
Worse, nearly 60% of people 44 and under didn't even have $500 set aside for an emergency, according to the Federal Reserve Board's 2004 Survey of Consumer Finances.
Small wonder that many people feel they have no option but to use plastic in a crisis.
These folks need to get some cash in a savings account.
You're getting 5.35% in a MMA? I need to move from ING. AmTrust right?
Hmm, can one do a trailing stop on an index fund without micromanagement? I guess I'd have to use an ETF. I don't have time to research individual companies and do the analysis that individual stock picks require.
I dunno...if folks really believe in a large decline around the corner I would expect them to have reverse funds in their portfolios to protect gains/hedge against losses.
Vinea
Yes AmTrust is one account I have. I also have GMACBANK and an HSBC.
I dont know if I believe in a large decline, I just did fairly well these past years and pulled the bulk of my money out to take a break. Like I said before I still have a small mutual fund...little over 55k I won't be touching.
The world economy is much different than it was 1992 (yes I remember 1992 very well). We now have a global economy whose growth is booming in places like China,India, Russia, Brazil and elsewhere. In fact, many US companies like John Deere, Catepillar, Cummins Engines, Foster Wheeler, Fluor, Dell (alas not Apple yet) and many, many others are participating in this infrastructure/agriculture/industrial boom
Catepillar?
"Caterpillar Inc. said Friday that weakness in its North American business and higher material costs pushed profit 21% below year-ago levels"
""It's the growth of emerging economies, Brazil, Russia, India and China, that's going to drive [future] earnings," said Alexander Blanton, analyst with Ingalls & Snyder.
Sales overseas improved $943 million in the second quarter, offsetting a $1.1 billion decline in North American sales, Caterpillar said. "
So it seems the North American market can shape the picture despite the fact that other markets are the future. To suggest that the North American market does not affect things is a bit off in my opinion.
"Caterpillar Inc. said Friday that weakness in its North American business and higher material costs pushed profit 21% below year-ago levels"
""It's the growth of emerging economies, Brazil, Russia, India and China, that's going to drive [future] earnings," said Alexander Blanton, analyst with Ingalls & Snyder.
Sales overseas improved $943 million in the second quarter, offsetting a $1.1 billion decline in North American sales, Caterpillar said. "
So it seems the North American market can shape the picture despite the fact that other markets are the future. To suggest that the North American market does not affect things is a bit off in my opinion.
1) Nowhere in my posts do I say that North American markets don't matter. All of the companies I mentioned including CAT have healthy NA markets but also are particpating heavily in the BRIC and ROW booming economies now and will continue to do so in 2008.
2) Catepillars underperforming quarter is just that--a quarter's worth of earnings. It has had a large and justified runup in 2007 (~$60 to $86).
3) The NA downturn for this quarter has to be viewed in light of many US related economic factors all of which were discussed in the quarterly conference call.
3) Guidance for the rest of 2007 in NA is actually higher.
3) If you had listened to the quarterly earnings conference call and read the detailed financials instead of just quoting one of many Tom, Dick & Harry analysts, you would have a better understanding of the current quarters downturn in NA sales.
I suggest you do your homework before you make this kind of uninformed post.
Until recently, there has been a seemingly unlimited supply of cheap money to fuel leveraged buyouts and other takeovers. There was also an easy flow of mortgage money available before the housing market turned south and the crisis erupted in subprime mortgages made to borrowers with poor credit.
But now investors are showing a greater disdain for risky debt - and fears about a looming credit crunch have shaken investor confidence worldwide. The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 311 points Thursday - its second-worst day of the year - and sent global stock markets reeling. The Dow opened lower Friday as well but later stabilized and was little changed in mid-morning.
People are always welcome to their own opinions and views. Always try to have your money working for you no matter what sort of market conditions exist. However realize that this regardless of what you think the economy is going to do, this time it is all going to be about liquidity. The money has been free flowing and easy for so long that many folks cannot imagine any differently. Credit and borrowing money is going to start getting very expensive again.
People are always welcome to their own opinions and views. Always try to have your money working for you no matter what sort of market conditions exist. However realize that this regardless of what you think the economy is going to do, this time it is all going to be about liquidity. The money has been free flowing and easy for so long that many folks cannot imagine any differently. Credit and borrowing money is going to start getting very expensive again.
Nick
You seem to pop out of your gopher hole after down market days preaching your doom & gloom message. Are you really Alan Greenspan posting under a pseudonym?
How's that PVX working out for you these days? If you had invested the same money in AAPL in May of 2005, you'd be up ~1500% relative to PVX(you said your initial investment in PVX was at $9.99 which it was in May,2005).
One thing you have to remember is PVX pays a 1% monthly dividend.
Sure 24-26% isn't as good as say...60% but I never said Apple has to lose for PVX to win or vice versa.
In 2005, I wasn't even in the market yet. I was getting some of my gains out of housing which I has purchased back in 2000. I'll be polite and simply note that my gains since then have been well north of 1500% and sit around 16000% since 2000. Those numbers are lower than they were at what I considered to be the real estate peak, but I won't turn up my nose at them.
I've not shorted the two stocks you mentioned. You never sent me the list you declared you wanted me to investigate.
I'm not going to declare I can beat anyone and everyone at stocks yet nor may I ever be able to do that. If I do as well in the second half of the year as I did in the first I'll be looking at a total portfolio gain of 40-50% for the year which I won't consider too bad for only my second year in the market.
lfe, just because we don't see eye to eye on where the economy is going right now doesn't mean I consider you wrong about certain stock matters. It doesn't even mean I need to prove you wrong on anything in particular at all. I've simply noted I think credit is going to get more expensive and in a country where people have no savings and spend more than they make, a warning to that effect wouldn't suck. I've stuck my stake in the ground even naming a date of when I think the recession will be here.
Please don't personalize this. Keep it civil. If you think people ought to do something different, state it. Name the stocks, the times the places. I might even follow your advice with a portion of my funds and my own with another portion. You want to discuss certain stocks, we can do that in a thread of your choosing or even here. There is only thing one thing I abhor and it is someone who thinks that by proving someone wrong, they are right. State why you believe what you do economically. Give some of your own recommendations. No one is slamming a door in your face.
You noted Cummins and Foster Wheeler. Cummins I am familiar with but not at all with Foster Wheeler. What do you think they are going to do and why?
One thing you have to remember is PVX pays a 1% monthly dividend.
Sure 24-26% isn't as good as say...60% but I never said Apple has to lose for PVX to win or vice versa.
In 2005, I wasn't even in the market yet. I was getting some of my gains out of housing which I has purchased back in 2000. I'll be polite and simply note that my gains since then have been well north of 1500% and sit around 16000% since 2000. Those numbers are lower than they were at what I considered to be the real estate peak, but I won't turn up my nose at them.
I've not shorted the two stocks you mentioned. You never sent me the list you declared you wanted me to investigate.
I'm not going to declare I can beat anyone and everyone at stocks yet nor may I ever be able to do that. If I do as well in the second half of the year as I did in the first I'll be looking at a total portfolio gain of 40-50% for the year which I won't consider too bad for only my second year in the market.
lfe, just because we don't see eye to eye on where the economy is going right now doesn't mean I consider you wrong about certain stock matters. It doesn't even mean I need to prove you wrong on anything in particular at all. I've simply noted I think credit is going to get more expensive and in a country where people have no savings and spend more than they make, a warning to that effect wouldn't suck. I've stuck my stake in the ground even naming a date of when I think the recession will be here.
Please don't personalize this. Keep it civil. If you think people ought to do something different, state it. Name the stocks, the times the places. I might even follow your advice with a portion of my funds and my own with another portion. You want to discuss certain stocks, we can do that in a thread of your choosing or even here. There is only thing one thing I abhor and it is someone who thinks that by proving someone wrong, they are right. State why you believe what you do economically. Give some of your own recommendations. No one is slamming a door in your face.
You noted Cummins and Foster Wheeler. Cummins I am familiar with but not at all with Foster Wheeler. What do you think they are going to do and why?
Nick
Anyone can claim 10,000+% gains on investments on a computer site like this. It's pointless because it's unverifiable. Let's not play my... is bigger than yours... Any one can claim anything on a site like this.
Your posts to date ignore the global boom in emerging markets like BRIC and ROW. Please do nott equate these countries to Japan in 1992. Japan was a super economic, protectionist country wherin the US could hardly sell a bushel of cucumber at that time. China and their 1.5 trillion in hard currency reserves can not get enough of our goods and services. They are building up and cleaning up their infrastructure at break neck speed to show themselves off to the world in August of 2008. Cummins for example is supplying more than half of the natural gas and clean diesel engines to redo completely the Beijing Transport Bus System. FWLT, JEC, FLR and MDR have construction contracts with the Chinese to rebuild their roads, factories, plants, etc. Money is pouring into the these companies as a result of this infrastructure modernization. Many tech comapnies like DELL (MSFT too) for example are about to sell hand over fist in India , a country that is just now increasing its abysmally low per capita computer ownership.
Your posts also ignore the tidal wave of liquidity poised to flood into the US thanks to the weakness of the dollar. The Euros in particular are just waiting for a bottom against the Euro before they jump in with both feet. Signs of that are already evident if one looks at the booming pent house/5th avenue buys in the NYC real estate market by Euro millionaires (including Russian and other eastern europeans). I would not be surprised if Vodaphone buys all or a bigger stake in VZ beacuse of the cheap dollar.
So you preach Greenspan doom & glloom, I preach "what a great time to be long in this booming global economy.Long to me is August of 2008. After that, we'll see.
Anyone can claim 10,000+% gains on investments on a computer site like this. It's pointless because it's unverifiable. Let's not play my... is bigger than yours... Any one can claim anything on a site like this.
Look, you made some claims and assumptions about what I bought and when, and questioned my return. So I provided the true answers. Sure anyone can claim anything, but what would be the point and what would I gain?
I mean seriously what do I gain by having people on here save some money. If I'm going to lie shouldn't it at least serve a purpose?
Quote:
Your posts to date ignore the global boom in emerging markets like BRIC and ROW.
I don't ignore them. I don't turn them into a magic bullet either. How can I ignore them and equate them to Japan at the same time? Seems like you are claiming I'm addressing and not addressing them. You don't like my conclusions regarding them, but that doesn't mean I've ignored them.
Quote:
Please do nott equate these countries to Japan in 1992. Japan was a super economic, protectionist country wherin the US could hardly sell a bushel of cucumber at that time.
Regardless of how each country was protectionist, both have acted as such. Japan as you noted imposed actual trade barriers. China does strictly "regulate" imports but most of all, they manipulate the Yuan. We know that China surpassed the U.S. this year in foreign investment. The massive demand to invest in China should be creating massive demand for the Yuan which in turn should cause a return to balance with regard to the dollar and relative worth. Instead China manipulates the Yuan, especially by purchasing U.S. Securities. This manipulation will correct. You do end up riding a dead horse.
Quote:
China and their 1.5 trillion in hard currency reserves can not get enough of our goods and services.
What a misnomer! Hard currency reserves are dollar denominated investments. The dollar sinks as it must relative to other currencies that are generated more demand, and the value of those reserves sinks as well.
Quote:
They are building up and cleaning up their infrastructure at break neck speed to show themselves off to the world in August of 2008. Cummins for example is supplying more than half of the natural gas and clean diesel engines to redo completely the Beijing Transport Bus System. FWLT, JEC, FLR and MDR have construction contracts with the Chinese to rebuild their roads, factories, plants, etc. Money is pouring into the these companies as a result of this infrastructure modernization. Many tech comapnies like DELL (MSFT too) for example are about to sell hand over fist in India , a country that is just now increasing its abysmally low per capita computer ownership.
Rapid internal growth leading to speculative bubbles that pop. I believe I've covered this. I'm also dealing with matters of demography and currency. It is a long view. I'm not talking about what Cummins is going to do next quarter.
Quote:
Your posts also ignore the tidal wave of liquidity poised to flood into the US thanks to the weakness of the dollar. The Euros in particular are just waiting for a bottom against the Euro before they jump in with both feet. Signs of that are already evident if one looks at the booming pent house/5th avenue buys in the NYC real estate market by Euro millionaires (including Russian and other eastern europeans). I would not be surprised if Vodaphone buys all or a bigger stake in VZ beacuse of the cheap dollar.
So you preach Greenspan doom & glloom, I preach "what a great time to be long in this booming global economy.Long to me is August of 2008. After that, we'll see.
I find it hilarious that you swear we are not repeating Japan and yet almost everyone can remember the Japanese buying up all sorts of U.S. investments when the yen appreciated against the dollar. That is part of the realization about the problem.
Why don't you read here because everything you are claiming for BRIC and ROW sounds a little familiar.
Also I'm not saying this is tomorrow. I've stated my view is recession in Spring of 2008. In otherwords that is when it will start, but of course they won't be able to "officially" declare recession until the second quarter of contraction. Since that is six months later, I'm talking end of September-ish is when the word becomes official versus whispered.
I like your view on Vodaphone. I've had that thought myself.
Are you Alan Greenspan posting under a pseeudonym?
With all due respect (really, no ad hominem intended), except for your predection of a recession circa Spring,2008 and asking folks to save more, I find the rest of your writing a series of obfuscating, disjointed non-sequiturs. Let's just agree to disagree. I'll go my way in NYC, USA, you go your way in Galt's Gulch, Randland.
I find it hilarious that the parties on here who insult me call me a disjointed idiot and the fed chairman at the same time.
I suppose that means I'm only stupid enough to run the entire banking system.
We can agree to disgree. I've asked you to lay your case and actions out there. You prefer to believe that you are right in a vacuum or by insulting/disproving me. (You seem to think an insult is a bit of logic that disproves someone)
It is easy for me to ignore. The sheep get sheared as the saying goes and I've been making money as a contrarian for quite a while now. If everyone could see the opportunities ahead of time, everyone would be rich. You were just like those baaahhh'ing that I'm an idiot to buy so much real estate in early 2000. Everyone knows real estate is dead and gee... look at that NASDAQ.
How long as this bull been running? So long that the rules must have changed right? They don't apply anymore. It is a new age with different limits. We've got a magic bullet (BRIC ROW) that is changing the rules.
Everytime you hear that it is time to exit the bus. It is time to watch the pigs get slaughtered. It is time to apply the word "correction." Of course none of the bubble issues will truly manifest themselves until the U.S. goes into recession. Then the dominos will really fall.
Comments
You got that right! Congrats Fellows.
Now I would say this....
Make all the profit you can in the market but take your profits and convert them from the US dollar and buy Gold. Gold will keep your equity protected from the deflating US dollar.
Do your own thinking and acting but consider the above.
Fellows
Now I would say this....
Make all the profit you can in the market but take your profits and convert them from the US dollar and buy Gold. Gold will keep your equity protected from the deflating US dollar.
Do your own thinking and acting but consider the above.
Fellows
That would be all well and good but..shorter vacations, longer work weeks and skimpy sick leave for Americans add up -- not to greater upward mobility, but to a burned-out workforce earning less than preceding generations.
Comparing the incomes of American men who were in their 30s in 2004 with males who were in their 30s in 1974, the researchers found that today's men actually earn about 12 percent less, after inflation, than their fathers' generation did. "There has been no progress at all for the youngest generation," the group reported. The American family stays afloat because its total income has been swelled by women's paychecks.
That would be all well and good but..shorter vacations, longer work weeks and skimpy sick leave for Americans add up -- not to greater upward mobility, but to a burned-out workforce earning less than preceding generations.
I don't doubt that for a second...
This is why I try to build wealth in my own ways.
The corporate world is really sad these days.
Fellows
This is really very sad. You guys are missing out on one of the greatest Bull Markets ever (an undisputed fact) because of the nonsensical doom & gloom postings of people like trumptman. China and the global economy are booming. Many US companies are partcipating in that boom. Will the boom end? Perhaps. But not until at least August,2008 when China will host the Beijing Summer Olympics.
http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_6347872
I suggest you take some time and do your own research on what the prospects for a US recession are. And, don't take as gospel the predictions of anyone on a computer forum, whether they be bullish (me) or bearish (T-man). That's what you do in every other aspect of your life so why not do it for your money as well?
First I've not told anyone to cash out and get out of the market. I've said get some liquidity. For a country with a negative savings rate, this isn't bad advice. We have many people who no longer practice financial management, instead they practice debt management as financial management. They think that having no savings, living on the edge, but being able to make all their monthly payments is "financial management." The concept of emergency funds, rainy day accounts, or even not putting the car brake job on a credit card has become a foreign concept to many Americans.
When I started the thread I noted that since many people on here are not as "ehem".. ah... experienced as I am in terms of age, they have actually gone through an economic downturn. They've never watched any sort of credit become more expensive to acquire or even be tightened. Even now the overnight rate is basically neutral with regard to the fed and people are acting like it is the early 80's with ol' Paul giving us 21% overnight rates.
That sort of thinking is harmful to the parties undertaking it. I've not said there wasn't money to be made, quite the opposite. I've never said sit on the sidelines, again quite the opposite because many items go at a discount when the excess credit is squeezed out and people still need cash.
Who's missing out? Trumptman is sitting on no more than $10K. I have a pile of cash because we expected to have to put a down payment on a house but that isn't all my assets and I'm looking to get back in. trailmaster308 is the only one out of the market.
Also, my reading of the Chinese is that they indictated in June that they are unwilling to allow the bubble to continue to grow until after the Olympics and has allowed their market to adjust and increased the stock trading stamp tax to try to achieve a softer landing. The Shanghai composite looks to have leveled out without becoming a smoking hole. If they can stay comfortably above 3000 through the Olympics they'll have a soft landing and a good basis for future growth. If they hit 5000 they're going to pop and thud. IMHO from very casual analysis.
Vinea
Bingo. I've not said get out. I've said get some liquidity. We are talking about a widespread mentality where people would put 0% on a home with a balloon payment and believe the appreciation would allow them to refinance into a conventional mortgage a couple years down the rode. This mentality is dangerous. The belief you can continue to use the house as a ATM, or use it to reconfigure debt is very harmful in circumstances such as we have now.
There is always money to be made..
I have just made over $1,300 in three trades in and out of COH
Coach handbags are very popular with the ladies and their stock only goes up over the long haul.
Fellows
Right, but money has been cheap for so long that people never figured borrowing it into their rate of return. The time is changing on that mentality.
Also not to toot my own horn, but I'll note that I bought and have held a significant sum of PVX at $9.99... today closed at $12.16... add another 6-7% gain for the monthly dividend.
Nick
------------------------------------------------
"Whole Foods Market, the US natural and organic supermarket chain, has built its successful brand around a set of company "core values" that are highly focused on corporate integrity.
But Whole Foods' reputation and its troubled $565m bid to take over main rival Wild Oats have both suffered a setback with revelations that John Mackey, its co-founder and chief executive, had been anonymously attacking his eventual takeover target on an investors' online message board."
"John Mackey’s penchant for proselytizing under a fake name has proven more potent than he would have thought. Bear Stearns analyst Robert Summers thinks the Federal Trade Commission could now succeed in stopping Mackey’s Whole Foods Market from buying Wild Oats.
The reason isn’t simply that Mackey was trashing Wild Oats on Yahoo! boards under the name Rahodeb without noting his position as Whole Foods CEO...."
------------------------------------------
Don't listen to anyone's financial advice on an internet chat site. Do your own research and make your own decisions.
Worse, nearly 60% of people 44 and under didn't even have $500 set aside for an emergency, according to the Federal Reserve Board's 2004 Survey of Consumer Finances.
Small wonder that many people feel they have no option but to use plastic in a crisis.
These folks need to get some cash in a savings account.
Nick
You're getting 5.35% in a MMA? I need to move from ING. AmTrust right?
Hmm, can one do a trailing stop on an index fund without micromanagement? I guess I'd have to use an ETF. I don't have time to research individual companies and do the analysis that individual stock picks require.
I dunno...if folks really believe in a large decline around the corner I would expect them to have reverse funds in their portfolios to protect gains/hedge against losses.
Vinea
Yes AmTrust is one account I have. I also have GMACBANK and an HSBC.
I dont know if I believe in a large decline, I just did fairly well these past years and pulled the bulk of my money out to take a break. Like I said before I still have a small mutual fund...little over 55k I won't be touching.
Banner day for the Dow
The world economy is much different than it was 1992 (yes I remember 1992 very well). We now have a global economy whose growth is booming in places like China,India, Russia, Brazil and elsewhere. In fact, many US companies like John Deere, Catepillar, Cummins Engines, Foster Wheeler, Fluor, Dell (alas not Apple yet) and many, many others are participating in this infrastructure/agriculture/industrial boom
Catepillar?
"Caterpillar Inc. said Friday that weakness in its North American business and higher material costs pushed profit 21% below year-ago levels"
""It's the growth of emerging economies, Brazil, Russia, India and China, that's going to drive [future] earnings," said Alexander Blanton, analyst with Ingalls & Snyder.
Sales overseas improved $943 million in the second quarter, offsetting a $1.1 billion decline in North American sales, Caterpillar said. "
So it seems the North American market can shape the picture despite the fact that other markets are the future. To suggest that the North American market does not affect things is a bit off in my opinion.
Fellows
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...C213096B807%7D
Catepillar?
"Caterpillar Inc. said Friday that weakness in its North American business and higher material costs pushed profit 21% below year-ago levels"
""It's the growth of emerging economies, Brazil, Russia, India and China, that's going to drive [future] earnings," said Alexander Blanton, analyst with Ingalls & Snyder.
Sales overseas improved $943 million in the second quarter, offsetting a $1.1 billion decline in North American sales, Caterpillar said. "
So it seems the North American market can shape the picture despite the fact that other markets are the future. To suggest that the North American market does not affect things is a bit off in my opinion.
Fellows
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...C213096B807%7D
Your opinion is uninformed.
1) Nowhere in my posts do I say that North American markets don't matter. All of the companies I mentioned including CAT have healthy NA markets but also are particpating heavily in the BRIC and ROW booming economies now and will continue to do so in 2008.
2) Catepillars underperforming quarter is just that--a quarter's worth of earnings. It has had a large and justified runup in 2007 (~$60 to $86).
3) The NA downturn for this quarter has to be viewed in light of many US related economic factors all of which were discussed in the quarterly conference call.
3) Guidance for the rest of 2007 in NA is actually higher.
3) If you had listened to the quarterly earnings conference call and read the detailed financials instead of just quoting one of many Tom, Dick & Harry analysts, you would have a better understanding of the current quarters downturn in NA sales.
I suggest you do your homework before you make this kind of uninformed post.
Dow hit record hi. Recession to break any day.
Banner day for the Dow
LOL! During these events one should start to evaluate one's exits.
LOL! During these events one should start to evaluate one's exits.
You exit. I'll buy.
CNN/Money
Until recently, there has been a seemingly unlimited supply of cheap money to fuel leveraged buyouts and other takeovers. There was also an easy flow of mortgage money available before the housing market turned south and the crisis erupted in subprime mortgages made to borrowers with poor credit.
But now investors are showing a greater disdain for risky debt - and fears about a looming credit crunch have shaken investor confidence worldwide. The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 311 points Thursday - its second-worst day of the year - and sent global stock markets reeling. The Dow opened lower Friday as well but later stabilized and was little changed in mid-morning.
People are always welcome to their own opinions and views. Always try to have your money working for you no matter what sort of market conditions exist. However realize that this regardless of what you think the economy is going to do, this time it is all going to be about liquidity. The money has been free flowing and easy for so long that many folks cannot imagine any differently. Credit and borrowing money is going to start getting very expensive again.
Nick
Some people have exited, that is for sure.
CNN/Money
People are always welcome to their own opinions and views. Always try to have your money working for you no matter what sort of market conditions exist. However realize that this regardless of what you think the economy is going to do, this time it is all going to be about liquidity. The money has been free flowing and easy for so long that many folks cannot imagine any differently. Credit and borrowing money is going to start getting very expensive again.
Nick
You seem to pop out of your gopher hole after down market days preaching your doom & gloom message. Are you really Alan Greenspan posting under a pseudonym?
How's that PVX working out for you these days? If you had invested the same money in AAPL in May of 2005, you'd be up ~1500% relative to PVX(you said your initial investment in PVX was at $9.99 which it was in May,2005).
BTW, have you shorted CMI and FWLT yet?
Yahoo Finance
One thing you have to remember is PVX pays a 1% monthly dividend.
Sure 24-26% isn't as good as say...60% but I never said Apple has to lose for PVX to win or vice versa.
In 2005, I wasn't even in the market yet. I was getting some of my gains out of housing which I has purchased back in 2000. I'll be polite and simply note that my gains since then have been well north of 1500% and sit around 16000% since 2000. Those numbers are lower than they were at what I considered to be the real estate peak, but I won't turn up my nose at them.
I've not shorted the two stocks you mentioned. You never sent me the list you declared you wanted me to investigate.
I'm not going to declare I can beat anyone and everyone at stocks yet nor may I ever be able to do that. If I do as well in the second half of the year as I did in the first I'll be looking at a total portfolio gain of 40-50% for the year which I won't consider too bad for only my second year in the market.
lfe, just because we don't see eye to eye on where the economy is going right now doesn't mean I consider you wrong about certain stock matters. It doesn't even mean I need to prove you wrong on anything in particular at all. I've simply noted I think credit is going to get more expensive and in a country where people have no savings and spend more than they make, a warning to that effect wouldn't suck. I've stuck my stake in the ground even naming a date of when I think the recession will be here.
Please don't personalize this. Keep it civil. If you think people ought to do something different, state it. Name the stocks, the times the places. I might even follow your advice with a portion of my funds and my own with another portion. You want to discuss certain stocks, we can do that in a thread of your choosing or even here. There is only thing one thing I abhor and it is someone who thinks that by proving someone wrong, they are right. State why you believe what you do economically. Give some of your own recommendations. No one is slamming a door in your face.
You noted Cummins and Foster Wheeler. Cummins I am familiar with but not at all with Foster Wheeler. What do you think they are going to do and why?
Nick
I bought PVX in January of this year when it hit $9.99.
Yahoo Finance
One thing you have to remember is PVX pays a 1% monthly dividend.
Sure 24-26% isn't as good as say...60% but I never said Apple has to lose for PVX to win or vice versa.
In 2005, I wasn't even in the market yet. I was getting some of my gains out of housing which I has purchased back in 2000. I'll be polite and simply note that my gains since then have been well north of 1500% and sit around 16000% since 2000. Those numbers are lower than they were at what I considered to be the real estate peak, but I won't turn up my nose at them.
I've not shorted the two stocks you mentioned. You never sent me the list you declared you wanted me to investigate.
I'm not going to declare I can beat anyone and everyone at stocks yet nor may I ever be able to do that. If I do as well in the second half of the year as I did in the first I'll be looking at a total portfolio gain of 40-50% for the year which I won't consider too bad for only my second year in the market.
lfe, just because we don't see eye to eye on where the economy is going right now doesn't mean I consider you wrong about certain stock matters. It doesn't even mean I need to prove you wrong on anything in particular at all. I've simply noted I think credit is going to get more expensive and in a country where people have no savings and spend more than they make, a warning to that effect wouldn't suck. I've stuck my stake in the ground even naming a date of when I think the recession will be here.
Please don't personalize this. Keep it civil. If you think people ought to do something different, state it. Name the stocks, the times the places. I might even follow your advice with a portion of my funds and my own with another portion. You want to discuss certain stocks, we can do that in a thread of your choosing or even here. There is only thing one thing I abhor and it is someone who thinks that by proving someone wrong, they are right. State why you believe what you do economically. Give some of your own recommendations. No one is slamming a door in your face.
You noted Cummins and Foster Wheeler. Cummins I am familiar with but not at all with Foster Wheeler. What do you think they are going to do and why?
Nick
Anyone can claim 10,000+% gains on investments on a computer site like this. It's pointless because it's unverifiable. Let's not play my... is bigger than yours... Any one can claim anything on a site like this.
Your posts to date ignore the global boom in emerging markets like BRIC and ROW. Please do nott equate these countries to Japan in 1992. Japan was a super economic, protectionist country wherin the US could hardly sell a bushel of cucumber at that time. China and their 1.5 trillion in hard currency reserves can not get enough of our goods and services. They are building up and cleaning up their infrastructure at break neck speed to show themselves off to the world in August of 2008. Cummins for example is supplying more than half of the natural gas and clean diesel engines to redo completely the Beijing Transport Bus System. FWLT, JEC, FLR and MDR have construction contracts with the Chinese to rebuild their roads, factories, plants, etc. Money is pouring into the these companies as a result of this infrastructure modernization. Many tech comapnies like DELL (MSFT too) for example are about to sell hand over fist in India , a country that is just now increasing its abysmally low per capita computer ownership.
Your posts also ignore the tidal wave of liquidity poised to flood into the US thanks to the weakness of the dollar. The Euros in particular are just waiting for a bottom against the Euro before they jump in with both feet. Signs of that are already evident if one looks at the booming pent house/5th avenue buys in the NYC real estate market by Euro millionaires (including Russian and other eastern europeans). I would not be surprised if Vodaphone buys all or a bigger stake in VZ beacuse of the cheap dollar.
So you preach Greenspan doom & glloom, I preach "what a great time to be long in this booming global economy.Long to me is August of 2008. After that, we'll see.
Barring a global plague or an enormous catastrophic event (not unheard of in the span of history) things will continue to grow.
Anyone can claim 10,000+% gains on investments on a computer site like this. It's pointless because it's unverifiable. Let's not play my... is bigger than yours... Any one can claim anything on a site like this.
Look, you made some claims and assumptions about what I bought and when, and questioned my return. So I provided the true answers. Sure anyone can claim anything, but what would be the point and what would I gain?
I mean seriously what do I gain by having people on here save some money. If I'm going to lie shouldn't it at least serve a purpose?
Your posts to date ignore the global boom in emerging markets like BRIC and ROW.
I don't ignore them. I don't turn them into a magic bullet either. How can I ignore them and equate them to Japan at the same time? Seems like you are claiming I'm addressing and not addressing them. You don't like my conclusions regarding them, but that doesn't mean I've ignored them.
Please do nott equate these countries to Japan in 1992. Japan was a super economic, protectionist country wherin the US could hardly sell a bushel of cucumber at that time.
Regardless of how each country was protectionist, both have acted as such. Japan as you noted imposed actual trade barriers. China does strictly "regulate" imports but most of all, they manipulate the Yuan. We know that China surpassed the U.S. this year in foreign investment. The massive demand to invest in China should be creating massive demand for the Yuan which in turn should cause a return to balance with regard to the dollar and relative worth. Instead China manipulates the Yuan, especially by purchasing U.S. Securities. This manipulation will correct. You do end up riding a dead horse.
China and their 1.5 trillion in hard currency reserves can not get enough of our goods and services.
What a misnomer! Hard currency reserves are dollar denominated investments. The dollar sinks as it must relative to other currencies that are generated more demand, and the value of those reserves sinks as well.
They are building up and cleaning up their infrastructure at break neck speed to show themselves off to the world in August of 2008. Cummins for example is supplying more than half of the natural gas and clean diesel engines to redo completely the Beijing Transport Bus System. FWLT, JEC, FLR and MDR have construction contracts with the Chinese to rebuild their roads, factories, plants, etc. Money is pouring into the these companies as a result of this infrastructure modernization. Many tech comapnies like DELL (MSFT too) for example are about to sell hand over fist in India , a country that is just now increasing its abysmally low per capita computer ownership.
Rapid internal growth leading to speculative bubbles that pop. I believe I've covered this. I'm also dealing with matters of demography and currency. It is a long view. I'm not talking about what Cummins is going to do next quarter.
Your posts also ignore the tidal wave of liquidity poised to flood into the US thanks to the weakness of the dollar. The Euros in particular are just waiting for a bottom against the Euro before they jump in with both feet. Signs of that are already evident if one looks at the booming pent house/5th avenue buys in the NYC real estate market by Euro millionaires (including Russian and other eastern europeans). I would not be surprised if Vodaphone buys all or a bigger stake in VZ beacuse of the cheap dollar.
So you preach Greenspan doom & glloom, I preach "what a great time to be long in this booming global economy.Long to me is August of 2008. After that, we'll see.
I find it hilarious that you swear we are not repeating Japan and yet almost everyone can remember the Japanese buying up all sorts of U.S. investments when the yen appreciated against the dollar. That is part of the realization about the problem.
Why don't you read here because everything you are claiming for BRIC and ROW sounds a little familiar.
Also I'm not saying this is tomorrow. I've stated my view is recession in Spring of 2008. In otherwords that is when it will start, but of course they won't be able to "officially" declare recession until the second quarter of contraction. Since that is six months later, I'm talking end of September-ish is when the word becomes official versus whispered.
I like your view on Vodaphone. I've had that thought myself.
Take care,
Nick
With all due respect (really, no ad hominem intended), except for your predection of a recession circa Spring,2008 and asking folks to save more, I find the rest of your writing a series of obfuscating, disjointed non-sequiturs. Let's just agree to disagree. I'll go my way in NYC, USA, you go your way in Galt's Gulch, Randland.
I suppose that means I'm only stupid enough to run the entire banking system.
We can agree to disgree. I've asked you to lay your case and actions out there. You prefer to believe that you are right in a vacuum or by insulting/disproving me. (You seem to think an insult is a bit of logic that disproves someone)
It is easy for me to ignore. The sheep get sheared as the saying goes and I've been making money as a contrarian for quite a while now. If everyone could see the opportunities ahead of time, everyone would be rich. You were just like those baaahhh'ing that I'm an idiot to buy so much real estate in early 2000. Everyone knows real estate is dead and gee... look at that NASDAQ.
How long as this bull been running? So long that the rules must have changed right? They don't apply anymore. It is a new age with different limits. We've got a magic bullet (BRIC ROW) that is changing the rules.
Everytime you hear that it is time to exit the bus. It is time to watch the pigs get slaughtered. It is time to apply the word "correction." Of course none of the bubble issues will truly manifest themselves until the U.S. goes into recession. Then the dominos will really fall.
Nick