BofA echos reports of flash-based Apple sub-notebook in 2H07
Bank of America Securities this week joined a chorus of other Wall Street firms who say they believe Apple Inc. is working on flash-based notebook and video iPod designs for a release sometime later this year.
The financial reports arrive on the heels two recent AppleInsider pieces which similarly detailed the Cupertino-based company's plans to move into the flash-enabled sub-notebook and flash-based video iPod markets later this year.
"We believe that Apple will introduce a new notebook, with flash based storage in [the second half of 2007]," analyst Keith Bachman wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. "Turn on time will be shorter (with flash), and we imagine the form factor will be thinner, than existing notebooks."
Bachman, who maintains a buy rating shares of the Mac maker, said he does not believe the capacity point for the new Apple notebook has been determined but expects it will end up around around 30GB.
"We don?t yet know if Apple?s potential move into flash based notebooks is an anomaly or a trend, and we need to get a better handle on other vendors? intentions to assess the impact to [hard disk drive makers] Western Digital Corp. and Seagate Technology," he told clients. "Our initial take on the recent developments is that the impact to the drive market from the encroachment of flash should be very small in 2007, outside of lower potential unit growth in the small form factor drives, such as 1.8 inch."
Similarly, and speaking more broadly, the Bank of America analyst said he is not yet convinced that the notebook market will significantly shift to 30GB flash capacity in the near term, as the target ultra portable notebook market consists of only about 2 percent of total drive units (or about 6 percent - 7 percent of total notebooks). Another major deterrent is Microsoft's Vista operating system, he said, which would require about half the 30GB of drive space for installation compared to the 2GB ? 4GB required by Apple's Mac OS X.
"We believe that flash based Vista notebooks would be best suited for business travels that use the network as primary storage, meaning we think the impact to the drive market from the encroachment of flash should be relatively small, though admittedly more of a force than we previously figured," he wrote.
In his note to clients, Bachman also echoed reports of forthcoming flash-based video iPods, which he said will arrive later this year as a complement to the current line of hard disk drive-based models.
Overall, the analyst remains bullish on Apple shares, which have significantly outperformed the Nasdaq stock market over the last three months, rising some 4.2 percent compared to the Nasdaq's 2.7 percent decline.
The financial reports arrive on the heels two recent AppleInsider pieces which similarly detailed the Cupertino-based company's plans to move into the flash-enabled sub-notebook and flash-based video iPod markets later this year.
"We believe that Apple will introduce a new notebook, with flash based storage in [the second half of 2007]," analyst Keith Bachman wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. "Turn on time will be shorter (with flash), and we imagine the form factor will be thinner, than existing notebooks."
Bachman, who maintains a buy rating shares of the Mac maker, said he does not believe the capacity point for the new Apple notebook has been determined but expects it will end up around around 30GB.
"We don?t yet know if Apple?s potential move into flash based notebooks is an anomaly or a trend, and we need to get a better handle on other vendors? intentions to assess the impact to [hard disk drive makers] Western Digital Corp. and Seagate Technology," he told clients. "Our initial take on the recent developments is that the impact to the drive market from the encroachment of flash should be very small in 2007, outside of lower potential unit growth in the small form factor drives, such as 1.8 inch."
Similarly, and speaking more broadly, the Bank of America analyst said he is not yet convinced that the notebook market will significantly shift to 30GB flash capacity in the near term, as the target ultra portable notebook market consists of only about 2 percent of total drive units (or about 6 percent - 7 percent of total notebooks). Another major deterrent is Microsoft's Vista operating system, he said, which would require about half the 30GB of drive space for installation compared to the 2GB ? 4GB required by Apple's Mac OS X.
"We believe that flash based Vista notebooks would be best suited for business travels that use the network as primary storage, meaning we think the impact to the drive market from the encroachment of flash should be relatively small, though admittedly more of a force than we previously figured," he wrote.
In his note to clients, Bachman also echoed reports of forthcoming flash-based video iPods, which he said will arrive later this year as a complement to the current line of hard disk drive-based models.
Overall, the analyst remains bullish on Apple shares, which have significantly outperformed the Nasdaq stock market over the last three months, rising some 4.2 percent compared to the Nasdaq's 2.7 percent decline.
Comments
if you want to wait for the 30 gig - possibly around christmas, why not wait for the HSPDA, 128 gig w/ built in GPS coming @ january '09? heck, why not wait for the full HD screen version w/ HD video recording capabilities coming in june 2010? or the 2012 model w/ 32 megapixel 10x optical zoom camera?
no matter what you get it will be outdated VERY quickly.
i'll buy in june, then again as soon as 2 things happen:
a] my 2 year contract is up, then
b] immediately after the next revision is out
i'm getting the 8GB iPhone as soon as i possible can - within hours of announcement of availability.
if you want to wait for the 30 gig - possibly around christmas, why not wait for the HSPDA, 128 gig w/ built in GPS coming @ january '09? heck, why not wait for the full HD screen version w/ HD video recording capabilities coming in june 2010? or the 2012 model w/ 32 megapixel 10x optical zoom camera?
Because 600 bucks is a lot, and I'd like to avoid getting the 6G iPod on top of the iPhone and carry two gadgets at the same time (like I have to do now)?
I can live with it going to 128GB; that is less of a qualitative leap, at least for me, than going from 8 to 30GB.
I've wondered why Apple doesn't make the design a bit modular on products that are not that terribly inexpensive -- if such a significant capacity upgrade is likely to happen in the matter of a few months to a year after a release, they should be able to charge me a little extra (say $100), take out the 8GB, and put in the 30GB.
I will only say this once:
FLASH MEMORY IS NOT YET SUITABLE TO RUN A FULL-FLEDGED OS!!!
Anyone informed about Flash memory also knows of its limited number of read/write cycles. Anyone informed about OSes know that there are tons and tons of R/Ws take place, especially on UNIX-based OSes. Anyone able to put 1 and 1 together also knows that running OS X on Flash will DESTROY it in a matter of a couple years.
Two things need to happen first:
1) The ZFS file-system must be used.
2) Flash capacity needs to increase.
#1 will append changes to a disk, not overwrite them, thus saving r/w cycles
#2 will be necessary as a condition of #1. HD space will fill quicker, making 30GB feel much smaller.
When both of these things happen, then we'll start seeing flash-only devices, but not before.
I repeat: NOT BEFORE.
-Clive
...but that day has not yet come
Intel says the Z-U130s will distinguish themselves from other solid state product offerings by their extensive validation, including more than 1,000 hours of accelerated reliability testing. The drives are expected to meet an average mean time between failure (MTBF) specification of five million hours.
I think 5 million hours will do.
Also, the Vista comment is flat-out false. 10-15 GB for Vista is largely swapfile and stuff. My OS X install uses about 5.5 GB of Virtual Memory on my HDD (with just email, browsing, and TextEdit open), and if you factor in iMovie, GarageBand, and stuff like that, you get near that 10-15 GB number overall. To fit easily in a 5 GB pre-install, Apple needs to slim down as much as Vista does.
no matter what you get it will be outdated VERY quickly.
i'll buy in june, then again as soon as 2 things happen:
a] my 2 year contract is up, then
b] immediately after the next revision is out
I understand what you mean, but if one buys something that's already insufficient for their desired uses, then it will be insufficient for the device's life. That person is better off waiting.
If it gets oudated very quickly, then one might as well wait until the specs are up to desirable levels. Then, it will at least be sufficient for two or so years, even if it has been superseded. I still haven't replaced my 1gig nano or my 4G ipod, they served the desired tasks, and they still do.
I think 5 million hours will do.
Indeed. That's more than most hard drives (which claim a million or two but rarely ever reach that).
Indeed. That's more than most hard drives (which claim a million or two but rarely ever reach that).
Hard drives probably never reach that. They are replaced long before that. The system for measuring MTBF don't account for failure due to old age, where failure rates keep increasing after a certain age. Two papers that were released in the recent months showed that there really wasn't much of an infant mortality phenomenon, most drives in the test fail from old age. How they measure their drives is to operate a certain number of drives for a certain number of hours. From what I understand, if 1000 drives operate for 1000 hours each and only one drive dies, it has an MTBF of 1,000,000. That's what makes it somewhat disingenuous, because as I noted, old age doesn't become a factor in such a test.
If it gets oudated very quickly, then one might as well wait until the specs are up to desirable levels. Then, it will at least be sufficient for two or so years, even if it has been superseded. I still haven't replaced my 1gig nano or my 4G ipod, they served the desired tasks, and they still do.
But they aren't NEW.
These claims are proof that Analysts have no idea what they are talking about.
I will only say this once:
FLASH MEMORY IS NOT YET SUITABLE TO RUN A FULL-FLEDGED OS!!!
Anyone informed about Flash memory also knows of its limited number of read/write cycles. Anyone informed about OSes know that there are tons and tons of R/Ws take place, especially on UNIX-based OSes. Anyone able to put 1 and 1 together also knows that running OS X on Flash will DESTROY it in a matter of a couple years.
Two things need to happen first:
1) The ZFS file-system must be used.
2) Flash capacity needs to increase.
#1 will append changes to a disk, not overwrite them, thus saving r/w cycles
#2 will be necessary as a condition of #1. HD space will fill quicker, making 30GB feel much smaller.
When both of these things happen, then we'll start seeing flash-only devices, but not before.
I repeat: NOT BEFORE.
-Clive
You do know Leopard will have ZFS don't you?
I don't need 160GB of drive space on my laptop, but I am currently using 140GB of it for various information. Relying on the network can really be a pain... mirroring it makes life much easier on the road. I hope solutions move us towards a more flexible architecture that can meet either mode of operation.
Because 600 bucks is a lot, and I'd like to avoid getting the 6G iPod on top of the iPhone and carry two gadgets at the same time (like I have to do now)?
I can live with it going to 128GB; that is less of a qualitative leap, at least for me, than going from 8 to 30GB.
I've wondered why Apple doesn't make the design a bit modular on products that are not that terribly inexpensive -- if such a significant capacity upgrade is likely to happen in the matter of a few months to a year after a release, they should be able to charge me a little extra (say $100), take out the 8GB, and put in the 30GB.
I currently carry a 4GB mini along with my cell phone so the 8GB iPhone will be perfect for my needs.
What 15GB?!? That absurd!
Another major deterrent is Microsoft's Vista operating system, he said, which would require about half the 30GB of drive space for installation compared to the 2GB ? 4GB required by Apple's Mac OS X.
You do know Leopard will have ZFS don't you?
Support. It's not the base filesystem for OS X.
But with that in mind, the HDD Industry isn't sitting on their collective asses and waiting to lose their business. They are working on solutions to provide solid state disk drives that have the benefits of their current drives with the benefits of solid state circuitry, without the detriments that are reality in flash based solid state drives.
Intel will not surpass the Seagates and WD of the world.
I think 5 million hours will do.
No. I want to use my computer far longer than 570 years.
Support. It's not the base filesystem for OS X.
What's the difference?
I was under the impression that I could choose to format the disk as ZFS on installation.