iTunes Store a greater cash crop than Apple implies?

2

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  • Reply 21 of 41
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dimmer View Post


    Nope, I didn't: but that's one deal with one label. Not everyone. Apple are free to do what they want, ans there is a customer mindset that 256 is better than 192 when it's not.



    Apple does not have a tendency to have a broad spectrum in their products. I think it is very unlikely that they will offer 256 with some labels and 192 with others, whether or not it makes any audible difference between the two.



    Quote:

    That said, the file sizes are roughly the same (because digital sampling above 192 using AAC will always produce the same result).



    I don't understand why you say that, unless you are assuming variable bit rate will be used. Given that Apple generally uses constant bit rate in their iTunes audio files, you should be able to multiply the number of seconds by the bit rate and arrive at the file size in bits. Maybe the perceived audio might be the same, but one file should be almost exactly 33% larger than the other. If it's not, then something is probably wrong.
  • Reply 22 of 41
    ogun7ogun7 Posts: 6member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Porchland View Post


    The cost model makes me wonder when Apple is going to get into the label game. Why give up $.70 cents every time someone downloads a John Mayer song when you can sign John Mayer, significantly improve margins and farm out the CD rights to someone else?



    Apple has a tremendous promotional engine. Sign an act, put them in an iPod commercial, promote them on the iTunes podcast, iTunes, Apple.com, etc. Pick the right artists, and Apple could have an instantly viable label.



    Unfortunately you really don't have a grasp of what record labels really do. They spend a tremendous amount of money marketing and developing talent. Pressing and distributing music is a peripheral business. Record companies get your video on MTV, your song on the radio and your face on the Late show. That takes a way different turn than posting music files on a website. In reality, Walmart, Amazon and Apple are music distributors.
  • Reply 23 of 41
    jimmytjjimmytj Posts: 10member
    Unless I missed something, the figures are missing the costs for actually developing iTunes. If Apple combines the costs associated with iTunes development into the same cost center as those necessary to maintain the store, then Apple claims of barely breaking even on the store may be correct/truthful.



    However, with Apple's market share of song downloads (legal ones at least), Apple would be crazy if they didn't attempt to generate greater profits out of the store. If we were to project Apple's market share into a future where the majority of music is purchased on-line, we are looking at serious $$, probably greater than the revenue actually generated from iPods. Another thing to keep in mind is that iTunes would also generate a more favorable cash flow than what hardware sales generate, making iTunes an even bigger opportunity for future revenue growth.



    Assuming the $.10 cost for credit card transactions to be fairly accurate, these charges would make the most sense to target since they are transactional costs and won't decrease with increased volumes. Some sort of "subscription" service would be one way to limit these transaction costs. I would guess that if we start to see iTunes music sales increase, thus illustrating the future potential of iTunes as a revenue stream, I would expect to see all kinds of changes as Apple seeks to take advantage of the growth potential.
  • Reply 24 of 41
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JimmyTJ


    Assuming the $.10 cost for credit card transactions to be fairly accurate, these charges would make the most sense to target since they are transactional costs and won't decrease with increased volumes. Some sort of "subscription" service would be one way to limit these transaction costs.



    $0.10 is probably approximated average. The transaction cost has a fixed and percentage parts. Very roughly speaking, a transaction is something like $0.25 + 3%, the percentage varies a little bit based on many factors. That's why I think $0.10 a song assumes that the average transaction is about $3, or more, because $3 leaves out charge backs and some other issues.
  • Reply 25 of 41
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Porchland View Post


    The cost model makes me wonder when Apple is going to get into the label game. Why give up $.70 cents every time someone downloads a John Mayer song when you can sign John Mayer, significantly improve margins and farm out the CD rights to someone else?



    Yes, I made that same point recently, and I believe they're going to sign some really, really big acts to get the ball rolling.
  • Reply 26 of 41
    bdj21yabdj21ya Posts: 297member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pazimzadeh View Post


    Well people are saying 256kbps isn't twice as good as 128kbps so I was just wondering what the exact number was, but thanks.



    This is really pretty simple math. Those little letters at the end of the number stand for kilobits per second. 256kbps is equal to 32 kilobytes for each second of music (8 bits to a bye). So, each 4 minute song would be 7.68 MB (32 KB/sec * 240 seconds, divide by 1000 to convert KB to MB). There is also some very small overhead for the ID3 tags and probably a bit for the Fairplay protection, though I'm not quite sure how that is implemented. Hence, 256kbps would be almost exactly, not "roughly" twice the size of 128 kbps.



    Now, as for figuring out how many of those fit on an iPod, that's a bit trickier, since Apple is reporting the sizes where each prefix (kilo- mega- and giga-) is 1000 times larger (as I did above also). However, on a computer (as well as in iTunes most likely) each of those prefixes is 1024 times as large (that's one of several reasons why your hdd never shows up as large as the number on the box). Also, there is space taken up by the iPod OS, extras, as well as a bit for the album thumbnails it adds on the nano and video iPod (I'm not sure if it includes some thumbnails on the shuffle now, just for syncing to another computer). Finally of course there's the space taken up by any contacts or calendar stuff you sync.
  • Reply 27 of 41
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,598member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by damiansipko View Post


    'Cause Apple Corps LTD. would probaly sue -- again



    Nope! New latest deal allows that as well.



    But, Apple would be crazy to do it.
  • Reply 28 of 41
    lfe2211lfe2211 Posts: 507member
    I thought occurred to me as I read through this thread. If Apple can reduce transaction fees, it can increases iTunes profits significantly.



    Google is in the process of building up its Google Checkout payment system. Right now through Dec.31, 2007, it's a sweet heart deal for merchants--it's free. Beginning January 1, 2008, the cost per transaction goes to 2% plus $0.20 per transaction. However, if you're a Google AdWords advertiser, you are eligible for free transaction processing for some or all of your Google Checkout sales each month. For every $1 you spend on AdWords each month, you can process $10 in sales the following month for free through Google Checkout. So assume a Google Checkout merchant spends $1,000 on AdWords in the month of April. In the month of May, the merchant would then be able to process sales up to 10 times their AdWords spent for free, which in this case is $10,000.



    So, if Apple and Google partner in a program , negotiate an iTunes specific deal that allows purchase of iTunes using Google Checkout, it seems like a win-win-win situation. iTunes can reduce transaction costs and Google can advance its Google Checkout program big time with a flagship mega-client like Apple plus make transaction revenue from Apple. If the program gains momentum with iTunes buyers (Apple/Google offer incentives to start?) , all parties win. For a buyer, using Google Checkout can only be a plus after overcoming some initial inertia. Google offers convenience for buyers similar to PayPal--Fraud protection, only one password and ID for all internet shopping and spam email filtering from merchants.



    I don't know what Apple's current Adwords payments to Google are now but they must be substantial.



    This makes a lot of sense to me. Does anyone see any holes in the concept?
  • Reply 29 of 41
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,598member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post


    Yes, I made that same point recently, and I believe they're going to sign some really, really big acts to get the ball rolling.



    I don't think so.



    They may do the same kind of deal they just did out in Vegas, where they will "broadcast" an act from the stage, and carry in on iTunes, in concert with the casino, but that's not the same thing at all.
  • Reply 30 of 41
    porchlandporchland Posts: 478member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by g5man View Post


    The problem arises when 80% of the songs are still purchased via CDs. Apple has great negotiating power for digital music, but trying to become a label is stretching it.



    I agree, but that's not a problem. I said in my original post that Apple could farm out the CD rights. The point is: CDs will continue to lose share to digital downloads the same as tapes killed 8 tracks and DVDs killed VHS.



    And Apple already produces a lot of original content like iTunes Originals that I assume they get much better margins on. I don't see starting a small label, developing a roster and maybe even signing a few high-profile acts as such a stretch.
  • Reply 31 of 41
    porchlandporchland Posts: 478member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ogun7 View Post


    Unfortunately you really don't have a grasp of what record labels really do. They spend a tremendous amount of money marketing and developing talent. Pressing and distributing music is a peripheral business. Record companies get your video on MTV, your song on the radio and your face on the Late show. That takes a way different turn than posting music files on a website. In reality, Walmart, Amazon and Apple are music distributors.



    At the end of the day, record labels make or lose money based on how many records they sell. The A&R and marketing is just the way they do it. If EMI, Warner, etc., had such a great business plan, they wouldn't be seeing double-digit annual declines in CD sales.



    My point is that Apple has a lot of natural advantages over the labels for digital distribution of music. Some of that $.70 per track is going to A&R, production, promotion, etc., but Apple only needs to recoup $.10 of that to significantly increase its margins. If you assume that $.10 out of that $.70 is the label's profit, Apple is passing that profit to the labels that it could keep if it owned the label.
  • Reply 32 of 41
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,598member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Porchland View Post


    At the end of the day, record labels make or lose money based on how many records they sell. The A&R and marketing is just the way they do it. If EMI, Warner, etc., had such a great business plan, they wouldn't be seeing double-digit annual declines in CD sales.



    My point is that Apple has a lot of natural advantages over the labels for digital distribution of music. Some of that $.70 per track is going to A&R, production, promotion, etc., but Apple only needs to recoup $.10 of that to significantly increase its margins. If you assume that $.10 out of that $.70 is the label's profit, Apple is passing that profit to the labels that it could keep if it owned the label.



    You're underestimating what the labels do. It isn't just a matter of thinking that Apple could get 10 cents from every 70. It would be more like 3 cents these days.



    The amount of effort expended would never be worth the payback, and headaches, as well as the bad publicity.



    That would be in addition to the fact that all other media companies would also consider Apple to be a competitor in their own businesses, which they are not now.



    I see only disadvantages from this, no advantages.
  • Reply 33 of 41
    If Apple can make 10c out of 99c on an average US song sale, then its margins must be great on sales in the European and especially UK iTunes Stores. In the UK, we are charged 79p per track. With the dollar currently at over $2 to £1, 79p is $1.60, so Apple would be making 70c or over 40% margins. Margins in other European countries would be nearly 30% at current exchange rates



    I know the European market is smaller than the US one, but these numbers must drag that 10% up significantly when you look at the global market.



    Of course, I still agree with many other comments here, that whilist the numbers proposed in the article look broadly reasonable, there seems to be little real evidence as to their validity and the margin for error on the different elements that make up the calculation could mean that the real margin on US sales could probably be anywhere between 0% and 20%.
  • Reply 34 of 41
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


    Apple does not have a tendency to have a broad spectrum in their products. I think it is very unlikely that they will offer 256 with some labels and 192 with others, whether or not it makes any audible difference between the two.







    I don't understand why you say that, unless you are assuming variable bit rate will be used. Given that Apple generally uses constant bit rate in their iTunes audio files, you should be able to multiply the number of seconds by the bit rate and arrive at the file size in bits. Maybe the perceived audio might be the same, but one file should be almost exactly 33% larger than the other. If it's not, then something is probably wrong.



    FWIW, I'm in the process of uploading some music to iTunes through TuneCore.com... they require 320 for the bit rate on everything. I thought that was interesting, since you can't download it at 320.
  • Reply 35 of 41
    mr. hmr. h Posts: 4,870member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tompage View Post


    If Apple can make 10c out of 99c on an average US song sale, then its margins must be great on sales in the European and especially UK iTunes Stores. In the UK, we are charged 79p per track. With the dollar currently at over $2 to £1, 79p is $1.60, so Apple would be making 70c or over 40% margins. Margins in other European countries would be nearly 30% at current exchange rates



    Don't forget that the 79p includes 17.5% V.A.T., whilst the 99c in the U.S. doesn't include any sales tax. So you should compare 67p to 99c. Which, I'll grant you, still doesn't compare that well. Also, the label's wholesale prices may be higher in the U.K.
  • Reply 36 of 41
    "For each $0.99 song, we estimate that Apple pays $0.70 to major labels, which own over 85 percent of the market, and $0.60 to $0.65 to independent labels, which drives an average price per song of approximately $0.69," he explained. On top of that, of course, are Apple's network fees, transaction fees, and general administrative expenses associated with operating the iTunes Store. "



    Just the credit card acceptance per song is much higher.



    Example



    Basic Discount Rate (Best Rate) 2%

    Basic Transaction Fee With AVS .15¢



    = .17¢ per song



    That is just the start.



    About 33% of credit cards are "Reward" cards, and have a higher rate, you can add another .2¢ for these.



    =.19¢ per song





    If the card holder is using a debit card, they fee can be slightly lower.



    =.16¢ per song



    Apple trys to cache asd many trasaction from each card holder as possiable to lower the actual transaction costs. For example if you order 3 songs in a week, you may get one invoce mailed to you with a single charge of .99*3 as the total charge that appears on your credit card. It is in Apples best interest to hold back the transactions if they think you may have more in that 7-10 cycle.





    It is however very true that Apple's internal gift cards have a one time Disount rate and transaction fee when funds are first loaded to the gift card. All other deductions and transactions are free to apple. So the more gift card transactins for Apple, the more profit. They will also find income form the 1/3 of gift cards that are never redeemed. This can be worth millions in the next few years...



    So the math in the story is really flawed in my estimate.





    My experience? I have sold Merchant Accounts for 20 years and have direct knowledge of the Apple relationship.



    +b
  • Reply 37 of 41
    lfe2211lfe2211 Posts: 507member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by multiplex View Post


    "For each $0.99 song, we estimate that Apple pays $0.70 to major labels, which own over 85 percent of the market, and $0.60 to $0.65 to independent labels, which drives an average price per song of approximately $0.69," he explained. On top of that, of course, are Apple's network fees, transaction fees, and general administrative expenses associated with operating the iTunes Store. "



    Just the credit card acceptance per song is much higher.



    Example



    Basic Discount Rate (Best Rate) 2%

    Basic Transaction Fee With AVS .15¢



    = .17¢ per song



    That is just the start.



    About 33% of credit cards are "Reward" cards, and have a higher rate, you can add another .2¢ for these.



    =.19¢ per song





    If the card holder is using a debit card, they fee can be slightly lower.



    =.16¢ per song



    Apple trys to cache asd many trasaction from each card holder as possiable to lower the actual transaction costs. For example if you order 3 songs in a week, you may get one invoce mailed to you with a single charge of .99*3 as the total charge that appears on your credit card. It is in Apples best interest to hold back the transactions if they think you may have more in that 7-10 cycle.





    It is however very true that Apple's internal gift cards have a one time Disount rate and transaction fee when funds are first loaded to the gift card. All other deductions and transactions are free to apple. So the more gift card transactins for Apple, the more profit. They will also find income form the 1/3 of gift cards that are never redeemed. This can be worth millions in the next few years...



    So the math in the story is really flawed in my estimate.





    My experience? I have sold Merchant Accounts for 20 years and have direct knowledge of the Apple relationship.



    +b



    Thanks for the good info Multiplex.



    As an industry veteran, what do you think of my Google Checkout idea (post#29) ? Naive? Not so simple? Buyer reluctance? Great? I'd be interested in your opinion pro or con.
  • Reply 38 of 41
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lfe2211 View Post


    Thanks for the good info Multiplex.



    As an industry veteran, what do you think of my Google Checkout idea (post#29) ? Naive? Not so simple? Buyer reluctance? Great? I'd be interested in your opinion pro or con.





    This would have a major impact on Apple's profit and is an option as well as PayPal options. Up to this point Apple has avoided partnering in the Payment System area. But if the Google deal took place, I am sure it would require more then just the current Adwords income. This may be the hold back on this idea.



    The plan fact is Visa and Mastercard was never created to be a "Micro" payment system. All rates set by Visa and Mastercard are paid by ALL companies. The only part that may be adjusted is the very slim margins of the Processing bank. It would be a less then a penny at best.



    New payment platforms like Steve Case's GRATIS card offers a.50% Discount rate and may be another option.
  • Reply 39 of 41
    lfe2211lfe2211 Posts: 507member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by multiplex View Post


    This would have a major impact on Apple's profit and is an option as well as PayPal options. Up to this point Apple has avoided partnering in the Payment System area. But if the Google deal took place, I am sure it would require more then just the current Adwords income. This may be the hold back on this idea.



    The plan fact is Visa and Mastercard was never created to be a "Micro" payment system. All rates set by Visa and Mastercard are paid by ALL companies. The only part that may be adjusted is the very slim margins of the Processing bank. It would be a less then a penny at best.



    New payment platforms like Steve Case's GRATIS card offers a.50% Discount rate and may be another option.



    Since my original post, I had further thoughts on the linkage with Google Checkout. Since the iTunes site draws so much traffic, it would be a good mechanism for Google via iTunes to introduce/direct consumers to their GC clients. So, the arrangement between Apple and Google (to reduce Apple transaction fees) could be tied into this directing of consumers to other GC clients not just Adwords. Apple and & Google are already very tight and looking for mechanisms to partner.
  • Reply 40 of 41
    scorn100scorn100 Posts: 1member
    Interesting article. but it needs two points of clarification:



    1) most providers of music to iTunes are receiving $.70 per track. the amount of tracks earning $.60 or $0.65 is very small by now.





    2) other than EMI, no other major label has given any indication that it is willing to sell unprotected downloads. As an indication, please note Warner's recent decision to sell its music via Snocap and Myspace. Normally, Snocap sells unprotected MP3's. But for the Warner deal, it had to implement DRM. So, I highly doubt the claim that 1/2 of the tracks on iTunes will be DRM free by the end of the year.
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