As for "being dead and not knowing it", such is a continuum that is highly specific to the nature of the beast presently being considered.
I plainly remember when CNN began broadcasting in the early 80's - 24 hr. coverage. I believe it was William S. Paley (founder of CBS) - who was interviewed at the time - who piously said "We aren't concerned about cable network TV. There's not a single cable network that wouldn't give up their future to have what we have today."
I believe this was the same "visionary" who had previously sold the New York Yankees to Steinbrenner in the early 70's for less than ten million dollars! I remember Forbes running an article last year, mentioning that the Yankees were presently worth something like one and a quarter BILLION dollars.
The trend is plain and it is accelerating. Of course it is not true right now, but the writing is on the wall (hence, "dead but don't know it yet").
CD sales are dropping precipitously, and the decline is accelerating, so consumers appear to be voting, just not the way you think.
Meanwhile, online sales continue to explode (not to mention file sharing).
A decade? Not even close.
Honestly, I don't think the fate of the CD (or any other physical format that may try to replace it) is nearly as bleak as most perceive. I think what were seeing is that the "bubble" of CD growth has finally reached its limit and is now starting to shrink down to its realistic size. When the CD format was first introduced, people needed to replace their records, cassettes, 8-tracks with CD's. Thus CD sales were huge and have been huge as that continued. Now that people have mostly completed their music collection, sales are naturally dropping off and no format has come along to force another upgrade cycle (despite the efforts of the minidisc, DVD-Audio and SACD).
The same trend can be seen in DVDs; now that most of the major films are out on the format, sales have started to taper off because there's basically only new films left for consumers to purchase. Music and film industries keep trying to tap into that market by reissuing CD's and DVD's with new content, but unlike the first release only a small percentage are going to upgrade. The movie industry is trying to create another upgrade cycle (and thus a growth buble) via HD, but have already screwed up by having 2 competing formats with HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. The hardware manufacturers have likewise screwed this conversion up by rushing hardware out the door with incomplete specs (HD-DVD players that can only output 720p vs. the full 1080p and Blu-Ray players that don't conform to the format's complete specificiations [because those specs weren't complete when the device was manufactured]).
It would be interesting to see a breakdown on how sales of catalog titles are selling versus new releases, both on the digital and the physical formats. If there was historical data on the matter, I'd imagine you would see that as more purchases have transitioned from catalog to new releases, it also matches the decline in music sales.
Also, I wonder if iTunes "sales" include the 2-3 free tracks that iTunes gives away each week. These are primarily the only purchases I make from iTunes with everything else being physical.
It should also be noted that both vinyl and SACD are still very much alive in Europe.
I'd be curious to see how many of the purchases are done using gift cards. I know I've noticed lately that there are a lot more people who casually throw out comments like "Oh, I've been meaning to buy that CD.. I got an iTunes gift card and I've been waiting to find something to use it on."
It's an easy gift to give, and it's hard to find someone who wouldn't want one.
More people would rather have an Amazon gift card then an iTunes one. Not everyone has an iPod or want to buy DRM'd music.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins
This is all good for giving Apple a stronger hand in negotiations with the idiot suits at the major labels.
Sorry. But major labels are headstrong stubborn beasts. Plus, if people want music, they'll buy music. They've got lot's of other outlets to make sales. They still sell many more orders of magnitude of CDs then they do of digital music.
Plus, umm, how do I put this nicely....the label heads have not been feted for their superior intelligence.
Honestly, I don't think the fate of the CD (or any other physical format that may try to replace it) is nearly as bleak as most perceive. I think what were seeing is that the "bubble" of CD growth has finally reached its limit and is now starting to shrink down to its realistic size. When the CD format was first introduced, people needed to replace their records, cassettes, 8-tracks with CD's. Thus CD sales were huge and have been huge as that continued. Now that people have mostly completed their music collection, sales are naturally dropping off and no format has come along to force another upgrade cycle (despite the efforts of the minidisc, DVD-Audio and SACD).
The same trend can be seen in DVDs; now that most of the major films are out on the format, sales have started to taper off because there's basically only new films left for consumers to purchase. Music and film industries keep trying to tap into that market by reissuing CD's and DVD's with new content, but unlike the first release only a small percentage are going to upgrade. The movie industry is trying to create another upgrade cycle (and thus a growth buble) via HD, but have already screwed up by having 2 competing formats with HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. The hardware manufacturers have likewise screwed this conversion up by rushing hardware out the door with incomplete specs (HD-DVD players that can only output 720p vs. the full 1080p and Blu-Ray players that don't conform to the format's complete specificiations [because those specs weren't complete when the device was manufactured]).
It would be interesting to see a breakdown on how sales of catalog titles are selling versus new releases, both on the digital and the physical formats. If there was historical data on the matter, I'd imagine you would see that as more purchases have transitioned from catalog to new releases, it also matches the decline in music sales.
Also, I wonder if iTunes "sales" include the 2-3 free tracks that iTunes gives away each week. These are primarily the only purchases I make from iTunes with everything else being physical.
It should also be noted that both vinyl and SACD are still very much alive in Europe.
The idea that CD sales are taking a hit because people are just now finishing up replacing cassettes or 8 tracks is kinda...... unlikely.
CD sales overtook vinyl over 15 years ago, and vinyl has been essentially dead for the last 10 (the occasional effusions of analogue fans notwithstanding), so I also think the idea that CD sales are just now collapsing due to the far edge of a "bubble" doesn't hold much water. The top music consuming demographic didn't even start buying music until after CDs were firmly entrenched as the format of choice.
DVD sales don't tell us much because movies are such a different animal than music, typically purchased as part of a "collection" rather than something that will be viewed many many times and with far slower "turn-over" in demand.
Sure, vinyl will hang in there as a specialized fetish-- every few years you see articles about the "resurgence of the LP" among hip young analogue fans-- but that only means a slight up-tick of a tiny segment of the market.
We're way past the analogue conversion phase and well into the no-physical media phase; now that the specialty CD retailers are fading from the scene I expect to see the steady shrinking of floor space given over to CDs at the big box retailers in favor of DVDs, which in time will also succumb to digital downloads.
The idea that CD sales are taking a hit because people are just now finishing up replacing cassettes or 8 tracks is kinda...... unlikely.
CD sales overtook vinyl over 15 years ago, and vinyl has been essentially dead for the last 10 (the occasional effusions of analogue fans notwithstanding), so I also think the idea that CD sales are just now collapsing due to the far edge of a "bubble" doesn't hold much water. The top music consuming demographic didn't even start buying music until after CDs were firmly entrenched as the format of choice.
You sort of proved my point. The top music consuming demographic is also the one with the smallest catalog of music to buy. Newer artists have fewer albums for younger generations and thus less CD's to buy in order to complete the catalog. I'm just over the 30 year old mark, and for the past few years have really lacked the resources to invest in music. Now that I have the resources, I've purchased over 50 CD's this year (I think I purchased maybe 6 all last year for comparison). I can easily say that most of the music I've purchased predates the tastes of the top music demographic. If I had the resources to create the music collection I have now years ago, I would maybe have bought 10 CD's this year. Maybe this helps to more clearly illustrate the bubble I'm referring to. Ten years isn't really all that much time to complete a large music collection if you think about them buying maybe 2-4 CD's a month.
It's also not simply about having to replace vinyl and cassettes, it's also about filling in the gaps of that music collection for the albums that never got purchased in the first place.
And personally I can't see the potential replacement of CDs (or DVDs) with digital downloads as some great step forward, not when even with "iTunes Plus" there is a serious lack in quality. Or how much of a step back iTunes videos are in comparison to DVD.
Comments
I plainly remember when CNN began broadcasting in the early 80's - 24 hr. coverage. I believe it was William S. Paley (founder of CBS) - who was interviewed at the time - who piously said "We aren't concerned about cable network TV. There's not a single cable network that wouldn't give up their future to have what we have today."
I believe this was the same "visionary" who had previously sold the New York Yankees to Steinbrenner in the early 70's for less than ten million dollars! I remember Forbes running an article last year, mentioning that the Yankees were presently worth something like one and a quarter BILLION dollars.
The trend is plain and it is accelerating. Of course it is not true right now, but the writing is on the wall (hence, "dead but don't know it yet").
CD sales are dropping precipitously, and the decline is accelerating, so consumers appear to be voting, just not the way you think.
Meanwhile, online sales continue to explode (not to mention file sharing).
A decade? Not even close.
Honestly, I don't think the fate of the CD (or any other physical format that may try to replace it) is nearly as bleak as most perceive. I think what were seeing is that the "bubble" of CD growth has finally reached its limit and is now starting to shrink down to its realistic size. When the CD format was first introduced, people needed to replace their records, cassettes, 8-tracks with CD's. Thus CD sales were huge and have been huge as that continued. Now that people have mostly completed their music collection, sales are naturally dropping off and no format has come along to force another upgrade cycle (despite the efforts of the minidisc, DVD-Audio and SACD).
The same trend can be seen in DVDs; now that most of the major films are out on the format, sales have started to taper off because there's basically only new films left for consumers to purchase. Music and film industries keep trying to tap into that market by reissuing CD's and DVD's with new content, but unlike the first release only a small percentage are going to upgrade. The movie industry is trying to create another upgrade cycle (and thus a growth buble) via HD, but have already screwed up by having 2 competing formats with HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. The hardware manufacturers have likewise screwed this conversion up by rushing hardware out the door with incomplete specs (HD-DVD players that can only output 720p vs. the full 1080p and Blu-Ray players that don't conform to the format's complete specificiations [because those specs weren't complete when the device was manufactured]).
It would be interesting to see a breakdown on how sales of catalog titles are selling versus new releases, both on the digital and the physical formats. If there was historical data on the matter, I'd imagine you would see that as more purchases have transitioned from catalog to new releases, it also matches the decline in music sales.
Also, I wonder if iTunes "sales" include the 2-3 free tracks that iTunes gives away each week. These are primarily the only purchases I make from iTunes with everything else being physical.
It should also be noted that both vinyl and SACD are still very much alive in Europe.
I'd be curious to see how many of the purchases are done using gift cards. I know I've noticed lately that there are a lot more people who casually throw out comments like "Oh, I've been meaning to buy that CD.. I got an iTunes gift card and I've been waiting to find something to use it on."
It's an easy gift to give, and it's hard to find someone who wouldn't want one.
More people would rather have an Amazon gift card then an iTunes one. Not everyone has an iPod or want to buy DRM'd music.
This is all good for giving Apple a stronger hand in negotiations with the idiot suits at the major labels.
Sorry. But major labels are headstrong stubborn beasts. Plus, if people want music, they'll buy music. They've got lot's of other outlets to make sales. They still sell many more orders of magnitude of CDs then they do of digital music.
Plus, umm, how do I put this nicely....the label heads have not been feted for their superior intelligence.
Honestly, I don't think the fate of the CD (or any other physical format that may try to replace it) is nearly as bleak as most perceive. I think what were seeing is that the "bubble" of CD growth has finally reached its limit and is now starting to shrink down to its realistic size. When the CD format was first introduced, people needed to replace their records, cassettes, 8-tracks with CD's. Thus CD sales were huge and have been huge as that continued. Now that people have mostly completed their music collection, sales are naturally dropping off and no format has come along to force another upgrade cycle (despite the efforts of the minidisc, DVD-Audio and SACD).
The same trend can be seen in DVDs; now that most of the major films are out on the format, sales have started to taper off because there's basically only new films left for consumers to purchase. Music and film industries keep trying to tap into that market by reissuing CD's and DVD's with new content, but unlike the first release only a small percentage are going to upgrade. The movie industry is trying to create another upgrade cycle (and thus a growth buble) via HD, but have already screwed up by having 2 competing formats with HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. The hardware manufacturers have likewise screwed this conversion up by rushing hardware out the door with incomplete specs (HD-DVD players that can only output 720p vs. the full 1080p and Blu-Ray players that don't conform to the format's complete specificiations [because those specs weren't complete when the device was manufactured]).
It would be interesting to see a breakdown on how sales of catalog titles are selling versus new releases, both on the digital and the physical formats. If there was historical data on the matter, I'd imagine you would see that as more purchases have transitioned from catalog to new releases, it also matches the decline in music sales.
Also, I wonder if iTunes "sales" include the 2-3 free tracks that iTunes gives away each week. These are primarily the only purchases I make from iTunes with everything else being physical.
It should also be noted that both vinyl and SACD are still very much alive in Europe.
The idea that CD sales are taking a hit because people are just now finishing up replacing cassettes or 8 tracks is kinda...... unlikely.
CD sales overtook vinyl over 15 years ago, and vinyl has been essentially dead for the last 10 (the occasional effusions of analogue fans notwithstanding), so I also think the idea that CD sales are just now collapsing due to the far edge of a "bubble" doesn't hold much water. The top music consuming demographic didn't even start buying music until after CDs were firmly entrenched as the format of choice.
DVD sales don't tell us much because movies are such a different animal than music, typically purchased as part of a "collection" rather than something that will be viewed many many times and with far slower "turn-over" in demand.
Sure, vinyl will hang in there as a specialized fetish-- every few years you see articles about the "resurgence of the LP" among hip young analogue fans-- but that only means a slight up-tick of a tiny segment of the market.
We're way past the analogue conversion phase and well into the no-physical media phase; now that the specialty CD retailers are fading from the scene I expect to see the steady shrinking of floor space given over to CDs at the big box retailers in favor of DVDs, which in time will also succumb to digital downloads.
The idea that CD sales are taking a hit because people are just now finishing up replacing cassettes or 8 tracks is kinda...... unlikely.
CD sales overtook vinyl over 15 years ago, and vinyl has been essentially dead for the last 10 (the occasional effusions of analogue fans notwithstanding), so I also think the idea that CD sales are just now collapsing due to the far edge of a "bubble" doesn't hold much water. The top music consuming demographic didn't even start buying music until after CDs were firmly entrenched as the format of choice.
You sort of proved my point. The top music consuming demographic is also the one with the smallest catalog of music to buy. Newer artists have fewer albums for younger generations and thus less CD's to buy in order to complete the catalog. I'm just over the 30 year old mark, and for the past few years have really lacked the resources to invest in music. Now that I have the resources, I've purchased over 50 CD's this year (I think I purchased maybe 6 all last year for comparison). I can easily say that most of the music I've purchased predates the tastes of the top music demographic. If I had the resources to create the music collection I have now years ago, I would maybe have bought 10 CD's this year. Maybe this helps to more clearly illustrate the bubble I'm referring to. Ten years isn't really all that much time to complete a large music collection if you think about them buying maybe 2-4 CD's a month.
It's also not simply about having to replace vinyl and cassettes, it's also about filling in the gaps of that music collection for the albums that never got purchased in the first place.
And personally I can't see the potential replacement of CDs (or DVDs) with digital downloads as some great step forward, not when even with "iTunes Plus" there is a serious lack in quality. Or how much of a step back iTunes videos are in comparison to DVD.