iPhone roadmap to 10 million units

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 31
    nofeernofeer Posts: 2,427member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by backtomac View Post


    Is it possible that 3g could be unlocked in the iPhone much like the MBPs were able to 'upgrade' to an 802.11n wireless card with the $1.99 firmware update?



    another reply said this required a new chip which was battery hungry, not simply a firmware upgrade.
  • Reply 22 of 31
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by backtomac View Post


    Is it possible that 3g could be unlocked in the iPhone much like the MBPs were able to 'upgrade' to an 802.11n wireless card with the $1.99 firmware update?



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by NOFEER View Post


    another reply said this required a new chip which was battery hungry, not simply a firmware upgrade.



    The iPhone does not include the UMTS radio it would need. This is definitive.



    As for battery, even staying purely on a UMTS (3G) network is only a 30% hit at worst, so most days you're going to lose 10-20% and I imagine a clever piece of software would (um, outside of Japan/South Korea) only power on the radio when you start using selected programs like Safari or sending/receiving large emails or when a call comes in (because UMTS calls sound better).



    Rest of the time it can stick with GSM/EDGE for background texts/email and the like.
  • Reply 23 of 31
    brussellbrussell Posts: 9,812member
    I'd still like to see the statistics that show Europe has so much higher 3G usage rates to make it necessary. Remember how big of a complaint this is in the US right now, but that didn't stop them. Whether it's the right decision or not, I don't know. But clearly it's the decision they made, and from what I've seen, Europe really isn't so fundamentally different from the US as to make them change that decision. Now, Japan and Korea, that will be different.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Electric Monk View Post


    Oh I can easily see Apple selling a million current model iPhones in Europe in the opening month (assuming they go beyond UK/France/Germany). However I can also see a ton of unhappy people who realize their $600 iPhone is slower then their $200 or less regular mobile, and can't find a WiFi spot to get faster speeds.



    The European telecom market IS NOT THE SAME as the American telecom market and I'm freaking sick of people thinking it is. Can the EDGE iPhone sell? Sure. Will it meet sales targets without a 3G model? Probably not beyond a month or two.



    Not to mention that with limited EDGE coverage (heck O2 doesn't even have EDGE, and they're the rumoured carrier for the UK) and not too many WiFi hotspots (free or paid) data usage will suck in Europe. So the lovely iPhone with it's amazing user interface will be crippled in speed and coverage compared to smartphones and your regular mobile.



    It doesn't matter in the USA because EDGE is everywhere and there are plenty of WiFi hotspots?this is not the same in Europe. They mostly skipped EDGE in favour of UMTS, and persuasive UMTS (even if it slower) is better then WiFi in limited locations which is why they haven't adopted it to the extent the USA/Canada has.



    And no, I'm not willing to bet on it because I could easily see Apple making the mistake you're advocating for.



    Frankly if Apple doesn't have enough time for a 3G model I'd delay any Europe model until the beginning of 2008, which would also help them roll out in all European countries?not just the big ones. Launch both the 3G North American model and the 3G European model at Macworld '08. Maybe even the Japanese/South Korean model if they're on top of things.



  • Reply 24 of 31
    lfe2211lfe2211 Posts: 507member
    BR,



    I recommend that you read Tomi Ahonen's article, originally referenced by Electric Monk.



    http://communities-dominate.blogs.co...ing-numbe.html



    Ahonen has very serious credentials.



    " in my current job I advise global mobile operators, the biggest handset manufacturers, the largest mobile telecoms infrastructure providers and various middlemen in the mobile industry, on their strategy. My previous job was heading Nokia's 3G Business Consultancy, and mobile telecoms business modelling is a core competence of mine. My first three books were all bestsellers specifically in the next generation mobile strategy, business, marketing and services areas. I lecture at several of Oxford University's courses about next generation mobile"



    The paper provides a serious in depth analysis of US, European and Asian cell phone markets by an industry expert. It is a long read but well worth the time.
  • Reply 25 of 31
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BRussell View Post


    I'd still like to see the statistics that show Europe has so much higher 3G usage rates to make it necessary. Remember how big of a complaint this is in the US right now, but that didn't stop them. Whether it's the right decision or not, I don't know. But clearly it's the decision they made, and from what I've seen, Europe really isn't so fundamentally different from the US as to make them change that decision. Now, Japan and Korea, that will be different.



    Heck if they just tossed the WiFi radio and put in the 3G radio they'd be fine.



    The relevant quote from the article:



    Stats: Last year in Europe, 15% of all phones in use were 3G phones. American 3G penetration rate is only 4% today. Europe has almost four times as many 3G phones per capita, and well over ten times as many in real terms, than in North America.



    Just about every smartphone sold in Europe is a 3G phone. And the iPhone is not a 3G phone. And most of the appeal of the iPhone - music, video, internet surfing - are features which specifically benefit from 3G.



    Couple that thought with multiple subscriptions. Almost all of our target users will have two phones and two subscriptions. They have the older phone, last year's SonyEricsson or Samsung or Nokia, which is already a 3G smartphone, and now get a new iPhone. Suddenly all performance, of downloading a song or surfing the web, etc, will be inferior compared to the older phone! Note that all Western European countries, and most of their rival operators within those countries have already launched 3G networks and services, and are now rolling out 3.5G. Most of Eastern European countries have already launched 3G as well. 3G is a make-or-break issues for the iPhone in Europe already this year.
  • Reply 26 of 31
    brussellbrussell Posts: 9,812member
    Monk and lfe: I'm sorry, but it just sounds like the same things people have said about the iPod's missing "has to have this or Apple is doomed" features for years. Hell, they said the same thing about the iMac's missing floppy drive and use of USB. There's what all the analysts think absolutely has to happen, and then there's what Apple actually does. We've just seen it so many times with Apple.



    Clearly there are trade-offs: Those European smartphones from Nokia and the like are much bigger and have around 1/3 the battery life of the iPhone. I don't know whether EDGE is the right decision, but it's clearly the decision Apple has made, for better or worse.



    Given the fact that Apple said the EuroiPhone is coming in Fall quarter 2007 (July-Sept.), it seems awfully fast to me to completely revise the iPhone. It seems much more likely that it's the same iPhone. If they delayed that until the 4th quarter, I could see it as possible, but still highly unlikely.



    That's why it seems to me that the same iPhone will start to be released in a few European countries very soon, and then, because of Japan's high current 3G usage (not to mention lack of GSM), the new 3G version will come out for Asia some months after the EU version.



    And I just want to be clear: I'm neither defending this or criticizing it - I'm sure there are legitimate trade-offs, both technical and political. I'm just trying to take wishful thinking out of it.
  • Reply 27 of 31
    nofeernofeer Posts: 2,427member
    can someone please explain the business model old and new i think that is crucial to understanding all this as per my earlier post we can talk about this and that but what is SJ new model

    thanks
  • Reply 28 of 31
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BRussell View Post


    Monk and lfe: I'm sorry, but it just sounds like the same things people have said about the iPod's missing "has to have this or Apple is doomed" features for years.



    [?]



    And I just want to be clear: I'm neither defending this or criticizing it - I'm sure there are legitimate trade-offs, both technical and political. I'm just trying to take wishful thinking out of it.



    It's really not wishful thinking. It's that in Europe, WiFi and EDGE buy you much less they do in the United States. This one is simple: ditch the WiFi chip, add 3G chip, move on with life. Battery life, as I've said, is no more then 10-20% (30% purely on UMTS) and losing the WiFi means you have the space for UMTS. Good software can manage the radio and only turn it on for calls and actively using data (versus background data).



    However, I do honestly think Apple is doing exactly what you say: current model iPhone to Europe. I'm just saying that's a mistake.



    That said if Apple manages to roll out a new iPhone every 6 months, they can recover quite a bit, but first impressions matter and being stuck browsing data at GPRS (EDGE, if you're lucky) speeds when the dude with the $100 mobile next to you is using 3G and going a dozen times faster is not the way to go about it for you looking fondly at your $600 phone. Plus lousy pictures and no MMS and no video recording (previous two items fixable with software) and no video calls are not going to look good in Europe, not at all.



    In the USA there is enough public and paid WiFi to take the sting off and 3G isn't widely deployed outside of urban centres. Europe, generally, is the reverse: lots of 3G, EDGE outside (but not inside) 3G coverage, and limited public and paid WiFi on the continent (UK, actually, has more WiFi per capita then the States).



    Quite simply it's not like using the iPhone in the USA as it is.



    It's like using the iPhone in a United States with no to little EDGE, and not a lot of WiFi.



    Then add everybody else (with a smartphone/expensive regular mobile) browsing at 3G speeds (you're on dial-up GPRS, maybe EDGE), taking way better pictures (yours don't have a flash, and suck if stuff is moving), video recording and uploading (nope), MMS (yes, stupid, but popular?none for you), and video calling (not so much).



    It's a whole nother world over there, and it's really not comparable to the United States. Think about a USA iPhone a year down the road?that's what you need in Europe now.







    Quote:
    Originally Posted by NOFEER View Post


    can someone please explain the business model old and new i think that is crucial to understanding all this as per my earlier post we can talk about this and that but what is SJ new model

    thanks



    I don't know. It's Jobs 'new' business model, and it's up to him to explain it.
  • Reply 29 of 31
    lfe2211lfe2211 Posts: 507member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Electric Monk View Post


    It's really not wishful thinking. It's that in Europe, WiFi and EDGE buy you much less they do in the United States. This one is simple: ditch the WiFi chip, add 3G chip, move on with life. Battery life, as I've said, is no more then 10-20% (30% purely on UMTS) and losing the WiFi means you have the space for UMTS. Good software can manage the radio and only turn it on for calls and actively using data (versus background data).



    However, I do honestly think Apple is doing exactly what you say: current model iPhone to Europe. I'm just saying that's a mistake.



    That said if Apple manages to roll out a new iPhone every 6 months, they can recover quite a bit, but first impressions matter and being stuck browsing data at GPRS (EDGE, if you're lucky) speeds when the dude with the $100 mobile next to you is using 3G and going a dozen times faster is not the way to go about it for you looking fondly at your $600 phone. Plus lousy pictures and no MMS and no video recording (previous two items fixable with software) and no video calls are not going to look good in Europe, not at all.



    In the USA there is enough public and paid WiFi to take the sting off and 3G isn't widely deployed outside of urban centres. Europe, generally, is the reverse: lots of 3G, EDGE outside (but not inside) 3G coverage, and limited public and paid WiFi on the continent (UK, actually, has more WiFi per capita then the States).



    Quite simply it's not like using the iPhone in the USA as it is.



    It's like using the iPhone in a United States with no to little EDGE, and not a lot of WiFi.



    Then add everybody else (with a smartphone/expensive regular mobile) browsing at 3G speeds (you're on dial-up GPRS, maybe EDGE), taking way better pictures (yours don't have a flash, and suck if stuff is moving), video recording and uploading (nope), MMS (yes, stupid, but popular?none for you), and video calling (not so much).



    It's a whole nother world over there, and it's really not comparable to the United States. Think about a USA iPhone a year down the road?that's what you need in Europe now.











    I don't know. It's Jobs 'new' business model, and it's up to him to explain it.



    EM,



    What's hard for me to understand is why SJ would try to go with the v1 iPhone at launch in Europe. Surely he is well aware of everything you have stated in this thread and what Ahonen described in his article. Apple must also have expert consultants who advise them on the present state of telecom in Europe. Is it just pure hubris? In the US, Apple has been doing almost everything right for quite some time. It's hard to fathom how they could embark on a no-win strategy at launch in Europe.
  • Reply 30 of 31
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lfe2211 View Post


    EM,



    What's hard for me to understand is why SJ would try to go with the v1 iPhone at launch in Europe. Surely he is well aware of everything you have stated in this thread and what Ahonen described in his article. Apple must also have expert consultants who advise them on the present state of telecom in Europe. Is it just pure hubris? In the US, Apple has been doing almost everything right for quite some time. It's hard to fathom how they could embark on a no-win strategy at launch in Europe.



    Because Apple is an American company that happens to do some business overseas.



    What is their best European country? The United Kingdom. This is also the country that most happens to resemble the United States (also likely the best place for the iPhone given the high amount of WiFi per capita).



    I hope that Apple does listen to their consultants and upgrades the iPhone for Europe. Even if they don't I have hope that the User Interface will carry them sales-wise long enough to get to a 3G version in the late spring. I mean it's just freakin' light-years ahead, but is that enough to save it from crippled data usage compared to other top-shelf mobiles? In the United States because of EDGE everywhere and lots of WiFi the answer is yes?in Europe without either of those?*I don't know. I don't think so, frankly, but Apple is committed to the iPhone and can likely recover from even large missteps given opening sales in America.





    However they don't seem inclined to listen to people outside America, take a look at Japan for instance. Over the last five years:

    -Apple has tossed the 12" PB and 12" iBook with no replacement (Japan & Asia are big on ultra portables?even those were big, but just barely acceptable. 13"+ are not)

    -Has not managed to introduce a mobile phone until 2008 (over a time when the entire market shifted straight to convergence musicphones, as Europe shows signs of following?in that respect the iPhone is a year or more late)

    -Cancelled Macworld Tokyo (biggest attendance of any Macworld)

    -Weak advertising (Mac Vs. PC in Japanese?doesn't work so much as to be counterproductive)

    -Lacks understanding of household requirements like TV tuners (limited space means most desktops/laptops have built in TV tuners in Japan).

    -In general has let Apple Japan become an incredibly poorly performing division.



    If they had kept a strong presence in Japan with locals informing the mothership I would lay odds we would have had the iPhone a year ago?lower margins and a tad slower hardware but the same price just because it's so apparent in Japan that convergence is where it's at once everything starts to come together on the network and mobile hardware sides.
  • Reply 31 of 31
    bergermeisterbergermeister Posts: 6,784member
    Apple... Japan... Two words that should go together... but don't.



    I agree with everything. TV is a must; better would be a full HDMI version of a suped-up mini to control your 47" plasma screen TV.



    Japan has a 3G system that reaches over 90% of it's population of 160 million plus. The Japanese are also gadget freaks like none other on earth. That means tons of potential customers for a music-savvy 3G phone, perhaps more than the # of potentials in the US with the current iPhone. If it is done right then it will sell like mad over here.



    The US would not have been my first choice if I had read this article before hand:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/30/sc...f261e1&ei=5070



    1 in 5 Americans think the sun flies around the earth. My wife wondered if they actually thought the sun spun around the US because GW certainly seems to think Texas is the center of the universe.
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