You sold?! I'm thinking of getting out 100% soon too. I think they're reaching their upper limits.
Extraordinary... Did you forget what happened after Eve ate the apple in the Garden of Eden? Potential apple customers - around 5 Billion, and growing...
You sold?! I'm thinking of getting out 100% soon too. I think they're reaching their upper limits.
They will safely hit $160 within 2 months unless a problem with the general market hits. I will admit that the latest run-up does make it tempting to cash out, but the analysts are so far off on the earning expectations this time around that there is sure to be some real movement after quarterly results and actual iPhone sales are released. Add to that a solid upgrade to the Mac and iPod lineup, and you have the instruments for some huge growth.
Last year, Apple managed sequential growth between Q2 and Q3 (15%). The analysts have Apple at a 17% decline for this year. My guess is that they come in at a 10% sequential growth this quarter, or $0.96 per share.
I distinctly remember all analysts being in complete agreement that Apple retail stores would be an unmitigated disaster. When Apple announced their plans to open retails stores the analysts all referred to the debacle of Gateway Computer's retail stores. [?] But yet people still listen to them and make their stock buying decisions based on what they say. Could all the people who chose to write off Apple and its stock sue the analysts for malpractice?
In 2001, after the Gateway debacle, and when Dell was king, it was common and reasonable to think that any retail strategy was doomed to fail. Most analysts didn't factor in the power of the Apple brand, etc. but Apple's success was far from a sure thing at the time, there was no iPod halo effect, the iPod had just been unveiled. In FY2001 Apple's revenue had been halved since peaking in 1995, Apple posted a $25 million net loss and Mac sales were down to 3 million, from 4.5 million in FY1995. When the first two Apple retail stores opened in May 2001, Apple was not in good shape.
These days most analysts are Apple supporters. And the article has nothing to do with analysts, anyway. I don't see your point.
You sold?! I'm thinking of getting out 100% soon too. I think they're reaching their upper limits.
I'm holding for now. As long as Apple has products lined up every few months, the price will hold, or rise. As long as the market doesn't take a plunge.
In 2001, after the Gateway debacle, and when Dell was king, it was common and reasonable to think that any retail strategy was doomed to fail. Most analysts didn't factor in the power of the Apple brand, etc. but Apple's success was far from a sure thing at the time, there was no iPod halo effect, the iPod had just been unveiled. In FY2001 Apple's revenue had been halved since peaking in 1995, Apple posted a $25 million net loss and Mac sales were down to 3 million, from 4.5 million in FY1995. When the first two Apple retail stores opened in May 2001, Apple was not in good shape.
These days most analysts are Apple supporters. And the article has nothing to do with analysts, anyway. I don't see your point.
His point is that it's just another, I'm smarter than the analysts, tirade.
But yet people still listen to them and make their stock buying decisions based on what they say. Could all the people who chose to write off Apple and its stock sue the analysts for malpractice?
Why? Apple bucks trends all the time. Apple has succeeded where others fail. Apple rarely tells people what they will do differently than similar efforts that have failed. Without having a track record, which didn't exist in some of your examples, such as the retail effort, there was no reason to expect they would succeed. All other attempts for computer brand stores have pretty much failed save for the Sony store, and those stores are of a different focus anyway, a consumer electronics store with a few computers, where Apple had a computer store with a single consumer electronics device. Apple was in a slide towards a world of hurt in 2001 as well. I doubt that an objective person can be reasonably expected to have predicted otherwise.
I don't think that Apple cares too much about profits for their retail operations. That's not to say that they don't want profits. But, you can see from the expenses assocciated with the stores, that Apple is spending more money on those operations all the time.
Aren't they still getting staggering returns on the investment? They open tiny little stores that, at least at one time, can make a considerable fraction of sales of a large big box store.
Aren't they still getting staggering returns on the investment? They open tiny little stores that, at least at one time, can make a considerable fraction of sales of a large big box store.
I wouldn't call them staggering, because Apple is doing a continual expansion, with the very high levels of investment that calls for.
As I mentioned earlier, if Apple stopped expanding at the rate they are, their retail profits would soar.
Look at the numbers presented, and you can see the ROI.
Apple does do well enough. Retail is a low ROI business. In terms of large businesses, only grocery stores do worse, though restaurants come close.
Comments
UK, 9
England 9, Wales and Scotland are still bare. Not to mention the whole rest of Europe, besides one store in Italy.
Sold my shares today, had to break sooner or later.
You sold?!
You sold?!
Extraordinary... Did you forget what happened after Eve ate the apple in the Garden of Eden? Potential apple customers - around 5 Billion, and growing...
You sold?!
They will safely hit $160 within 2 months unless a problem with the general market hits. I will admit that the latest run-up does make it tempting to cash out, but the analysts are so far off on the earning expectations this time around that there is sure to be some real movement after quarterly results and actual iPhone sales are released. Add to that a solid upgrade to the Mac and iPod lineup, and you have the instruments for some huge growth.
Last year, Apple managed sequential growth between Q2 and Q3 (15%). The analysts have Apple at a 17% decline for this year. My guess is that they come in at a 10% sequential growth this quarter, or $0.96 per share.
I distinctly remember all analysts being in complete agreement that Apple retail stores would be an unmitigated disaster. When Apple announced their plans to open retails stores the analysts all referred to the debacle of Gateway Computer's retail stores. [?] But yet people still listen to them and make their stock buying decisions based on what they say. Could all the people who chose to write off Apple and its stock sue the analysts for malpractice?
In 2001, after the Gateway debacle, and when Dell was king, it was common and reasonable to think that any retail strategy was doomed to fail. Most analysts didn't factor in the power of the Apple brand, etc. but Apple's success was far from a sure thing at the time, there was no iPod halo effect, the iPod had just been unveiled. In FY2001 Apple's revenue had been halved since peaking in 1995, Apple posted a $25 million net loss and Mac sales were down to 3 million, from 4.5 million in FY1995. When the first two Apple retail stores opened in May 2001, Apple was not in good shape.
These days most analysts are Apple supporters. And the article has nothing to do with analysts, anyway. I don't see your point.
You sold?!
I'm holding for now. As long as Apple has products lined up every few months, the price will hold, or rise. As long as the market doesn't take a plunge.
In 2001, after the Gateway debacle, and when Dell was king, it was common and reasonable to think that any retail strategy was doomed to fail. Most analysts didn't factor in the power of the Apple brand, etc. but Apple's success was far from a sure thing at the time, there was no iPod halo effect, the iPod had just been unveiled. In FY2001 Apple's revenue had been halved since peaking in 1995, Apple posted a $25 million net loss and Mac sales were down to 3 million, from 4.5 million in FY1995. When the first two Apple retail stores opened in May 2001, Apple was not in good shape.
These days most analysts are Apple supporters. And the article has nothing to do with analysts, anyway. I don't see your point.
His point is that it's just another, I'm smarter than the analysts, tirade.
1 - New iMacs
2 - Touchscreen iPods
3 - iPhone software updates
4 - ETC...
But yet people still listen to them and make their stock buying decisions based on what they say. Could all the people who chose to write off Apple and its stock sue the analysts for malpractice?
Why? Apple bucks trends all the time. Apple has succeeded where others fail. Apple rarely tells people what they will do differently than similar efforts that have failed. Without having a track record, which didn't exist in some of your examples, such as the retail effort, there was no reason to expect they would succeed. All other attempts for computer brand stores have pretty much failed save for the Sony store, and those stores are of a different focus anyway, a consumer electronics store with a few computers, where Apple had a computer store with a single consumer electronics device. Apple was in a slide towards a world of hurt in 2001 as well. I doubt that an objective person can be reasonably expected to have predicted otherwise.
I don't think that Apple cares too much about profits for their retail operations. That's not to say that they don't want profits. But, you can see from the expenses assocciated with the stores, that Apple is spending more money on those operations all the time.
Aren't they still getting staggering returns on the investment? They open tiny little stores that, at least at one time, can make a considerable fraction of sales of a large big box store.
Aren't they still getting staggering returns on the investment? They open tiny little stores that, at least at one time, can make a considerable fraction of sales of a large big box store.
I wouldn't call them staggering, because Apple is doing a continual expansion, with the very high levels of investment that calls for.
As I mentioned earlier, if Apple stopped expanding at the rate they are, their retail profits would soar.
Look at the numbers presented, and you can see the ROI.
Apple does do well enough. Retail is a low ROI business. In terms of large businesses, only grocery stores do worse, though restaurants come close.