How much do you figure it will be worth by then? I figure for anyone to retire in luxury, you must be assuming such a scenario would result in 10x your money right?
That makes Apple a 1.2 trillion dollar company. You think that's likely?
I bought at just over $30 so already doing great I stuck a lot of my IRA in and so did the wife plus a lot more. I just knew Apple was about to go main stream.
I wonder how far off the bottom of the worldwide table they are... I'd imagine the US is Apple's major market, followed fairly closely by Europe, so perhaps they double what they sell in the US?
Japan used to be their number two market, but then they ignored it and Apple Japan shot themselves repeatedly in the head to avoid facing reality.
I bought at just over $30 so already doing great I stuck a lot of my IRA in and so did the wife plus a lot more. I just knew Apple was about to go main stream.
Outstanding! Wish I had done that too. The question remains, however, of what to do with your Apple shares now that you have a 500% profit? hold out and wait for another 500%? Or ask yourself if Apple's shares have seen the bulk of their fast increases.
My assumption is that I will hold Apple for another 6 months or so, or until it hits around $150. At that point I hope I'm smart enough to let someone else hold it as it deflates or treads water for a few years, as earnings catch up to stock price.
Nothing personal against anyone who disagrees - we're all here to make money (well at least those of us who hijacked this thread to talk about stocks ) Reasonable people can disagree about what will happen in the future of the stock market, right?
I know - I was just throwing out a figure - if you already have 1,000,000 to invest in Apple and all you are hoping for is a double, you probably wouldn't have phrased it the way the OP did. So yeah, I just took a number out of thin air. Say you put 20,000 in Apple stock. That's a whole lot for most people, right? Even if you are "only" hoping for 5x, you still only get to 100,000 (not enough to retire in luxury in most universes), and Apple still has to nearly reach that magical 1 trillion mark.
My point is that while I think the growth prospects for Apple are outstanding in terms of product sales and profits, I don't think the potential for the stock to rise is nearly as good, since much of that, in my opinion, has already happened.
As illustration, look at Microsoft. It is priced in the same range as it was 5 years ago, but earnings have grown substantially since then.
If Apple reaches its true potential, it will have the market cap of Sony (in 2000, at its peak) + Dell + Microsoft = $500 billion ($560/share). The computer market quadruples, and Apple takes 25% of it (= the whole current market). IMHO of course...
If Apple reaches its true potential, it will have the market cap of Sony (in 2000, at its peak) + Dell + Microsoft = $500 billion ($560/share). The computer market quadruples, and Apple takes 25% of it (= the whole current market). IMHO of course...
I hope that was all tongue in cheek....
While you're throwing out crazy ideas, why not include Nokia at it's peak too, and don't forget about Adobe (after all, doesn't adobe make a lot of money from video editing software?) and of course you can't forget adding in the market value of Tivo (Apple TV) and why not also throw in a dash of Logitech (those Apple mice rock!)...
For Apple to make inroads in business, they need serious database support. No, I don't mean FileMaker Pro either, I'm talking a dbms that can support hundreds of users and allow access to hundreds of gigabytes of data.
Well clearly there are more powerful database systems than Filemaker but you'll need to specify tougher criteria than that to exceed Filemaker's limits!
Since Filemaker 7 you've been able to develop Filemaker DBs with up to 7 TeraBytes of data, 250 simultaneous Filemaker client users and (at the same time) 100 simultaneous web users (and you can also add in up to 50 ODBC clients).
For many, even quite large Company database projects (unless you are talking all staff in say a multi-national), Filemaker is a great product.
While you're throwing out crazy ideas, why not include Nokia at it's peak too, and don't forget about Adobe (after all, doesn't adobe make a lot of money from video editing software?) and of course you can't forget adding in the market value of Tivo (Apple TV) and why not also throw in a dash of Logitech (those Apple mice rock!)...
No, it wasn't a joke - companies don't magically stop growing once they get to 100 billion. The market for computers, electronics and phones will be larger 5 or 10 years from now than it currently is, and Apple is poised to take a big chunk of that business.
Sony will be bigger also, but not as big as Apple.
No, it wasn't a joke - companies don't magically stop growing once they get to 100 billion. The market 5 years for computers, electronics and phones will be larger 5 or 10 years from now than it currently is, and Apple is poised to take a big chunk of that business.
Sony will be bigger also, but not as big as Apple.
Yikes. I would counter that if it's not magic that stops them from growing at 100 billion, I do wonder what it is, because history shows that it's *something* (100 billion is of course arbitrary, the number is somewhere up there though, just look at the top 10 list of big companies and see if you find one that resembles Apple)
OK, well good luck. Hopefully you'll be right. Can I ask what your Apple stock holdings are, with a view of the future like that?
My Apple stock accounts for just under 10% of my total equity holdings, and that's getting very high for me. Can I also ask what your experience was in the bubble burst of 2000? Mine involved seeing my portfolio decline about 75% over 3 years while I repeatedly told myself that the companies I owned were leaders in huge and growing industries, that they couldn't possibly be overpriced. I have tried to learn from those mistakes.
OK, well good luck. Hopefully you'll be right. Can I ask what your Apple stock holdings are, with a view of the future like that?
My Apple stock accounts for just under 10% of my total equity holdings, and that's getting very high for me. Can I also ask what your experience was in the bubble burst of 2000? Mine involved seeing my portfolio decline about 75% over 3 years while I repeatedly told myself that the companies I owned were leaders in huge and growing industries, that they couldn't possibly be overpriced. I have tried to learn from those mistakes.
I like to think that I have a pretty realistic view of market valuations - when Nortel was at $70 I told my friends that it was worth $5 and they laughed at me, and later stopped laughing as it dropped from $87 to 47 cents. I did lose quite a bit of money around that time (I think) - but it wasn't in internet stocks, it was with a company called Allied Products - and I lost money because they lied about their finances. Mostly I was trying to pay off a large business debt, which saved me from any market involvement.
I have my whole IRA in Apple stock, but that is 2% of my net worth.
Apple earnings growth is really good (P/E = 44, earnings growth 56%), and they have a low market share in everything except iPods (iTMS has high market share for online downloads, but they will take over most of the whole music industry, so I see iTMS as low market share inside the music industry rather than high share of downloads) so that growth has plenty of room to continue. I really think that the iPhone is still not priced in yet, and neither is the huge movie rental business that appleTV will turn into. Plus, apple will soon give us an earnings report, and I am guessing that they will report about 15 billion in cash - so only 105 billion in valuation (not 120) needs to be justified by earnings.
If Apple reaches its true potential, it will have the market cap of Sony (in 2000, at its peak) + Dell + Microsoft = $500 billion ($560/share). The computer market quadruples, and Apple takes 25% of it (= the whole current market). IMHO of course...
If the growth continues at the current pace (WW ~10%, US ~5%) the PC market won't quadruple anytime soon. Worldwide PC shipments will double in 7 years, PC sales in the U.S. will double in 15 years. Notebook sales are growing faster (WW and U.S. ~20%), in both cases notebook shipments will quadruple in 8 years.
We can sorta expect the WW market to double by 2014, if Mac sales keep growing steadily (25% YOY) over the next 7 years, Apple will take 6.74 percent of the worldwide market (33.7 million units out of 500.24 million) and 18.8 percent in the U.S. (18.5 million units out of 98.5 million).
If the growth continues at the current pace (WW ~10%, US ~5%) the PC market won't quadruple anytime soon. Worldwide PC shipments will double in 7 years, PC sales in the U.S. will double in 15 years. Notebook sales are growing faster (WW and U.S. ~20%), in both cases notebook shipments will quadruple in 8 years.
We can sorta expect the WW market to double by 2014, if Mac sales keep growing steadily (25% YOY) over the next 7 years, Apple will take 6.74 percent of the worldwide market (33.7 million units out of 500.24 million) and 18.8 percent in the U.S. (18.5 million units out of 98.5 million).
1. I think that worldwide computer usage is going to ramp faster than that - the 3rd world is getting richer at a much faster pace than it has in the past. China for example, has millions of people who are just now getting rich enough for luxury goods.
2. I think that Apple's market share will not grow at 25%, but will accelerate due to the crappyness of Vista and the halo effect.
Sorry but I'll take IDC's words over yours. And I don't see Apple selling tons of computers in China or in India just yet. First, they need to broaden the number of distribution points in Western Europe and increase sales in Japan, two well-established markets. In the previous post, Mac shipments are increasing by 25 percent a year, not Apple's market share. In this model market share gains are already accelerating over time (from 0.3 WW market share point in 2007 to 0.8 in 2014, and from 0.8 point of U.S. market share in 2007 to 3 full points gained in 2014).
You have to wonder when Apple will unleash some enterprise database management solutions. They are hardly inexperienced given their little set up, aka iTunes. Or is someone going to ruin my day and tell me that all runs on PCs using MS File?
I dont know much about that kind of software but I just typed "enterprise database management solutions for mac" into google. and the above website came up.
Comments
Actually, if you invested in AAPL in 2002, you would have about 20x growth as of today.
Which illustrates my point. Apple already had it's 5 year period of making people rich. That's not going to happen in the next 5 years again.
You think?
How much do you figure it will be worth by then? I figure for anyone to retire in luxury, you must be assuming such a scenario would result in 10x your money right?
That makes Apple a 1.2 trillion dollar company. You think that's likely?
I bought at just over $30 so already doing great
Actually, if you invested in AAPL in 2002, you would have about 20x growth as of today.
Some of us have had more than 1,000% growth. Not bad.
I wonder how far off the bottom of the worldwide table they are... I'd imagine the US is Apple's major market, followed fairly closely by Europe, so perhaps they double what they sell in the US?
Japan used to be their number two market, but then they ignored it and Apple Japan shot themselves repeatedly in the head to avoid facing reality.
Point? I have no point. Just bitterness.
Japan used to be their number two market, but then they ignored it and Apple Japan shot themselves repeatedly in the head to avoid facing reality.
Point? I have no point. Just bitterness.
A ultraportable notebook would go a long way toward fixing that market. Dunno why the iMac does poorly.
Vinea
I bought at just over $30 so already doing great
Outstanding! Wish I had done that too. The question remains, however, of what to do with your Apple shares now that you have a 500% profit? hold out and wait for another 500%? Or ask yourself if Apple's shares have seen the bulk of their fast increases.
My assumption is that I will hold Apple for another 6 months or so, or until it hits around $150. At that point I hope I'm smart enough to let someone else hold it as it deflates or treads water for a few years, as earnings catch up to stock price.
Nothing personal against anyone who disagrees - we're all here to make money (well at least those of us who hijacked this thread to talk about stocks
I know - I was just throwing out a figure - if you already have 1,000,000 to invest in Apple and all you are hoping for is a double, you probably wouldn't have phrased it the way the OP did. So yeah, I just took a number out of thin air. Say you put 20,000 in Apple stock. That's a whole lot for most people, right? Even if you are "only" hoping for 5x, you still only get to 100,000 (not enough to retire in luxury in most universes), and Apple still has to nearly reach that magical 1 trillion mark.
My point is that while I think the growth prospects for Apple are outstanding in terms of product sales and profits, I don't think the potential for the stock to rise is nearly as good, since much of that, in my opinion, has already happened.
As illustration, look at Microsoft. It is priced in the same range as it was 5 years ago, but earnings have grown substantially since then.
If Apple reaches its true potential, it will have the market cap of Sony (in 2000, at its peak) + Dell + Microsoft = $500 billion ($560/share). The computer market quadruples, and Apple takes 25% of it (= the whole current market). IMHO of course...
If Apple reaches its true potential, it will have the market cap of Sony (in 2000, at its peak) + Dell + Microsoft = $500 billion ($560/share). The computer market quadruples, and Apple takes 25% of it (= the whole current market). IMHO of course...
I hope that was all tongue in cheek....
While you're throwing out crazy ideas, why not include Nokia at it's peak too, and don't forget about Adobe (after all, doesn't adobe make a lot of money from video editing software?) and of course you can't forget adding in the market value of Tivo (Apple TV) and why not also throw in a dash of Logitech (those Apple mice rock!)...
For Apple to make inroads in business, they need serious database support. No, I don't mean FileMaker Pro either, I'm talking a dbms that can support hundreds of users and allow access to hundreds of gigabytes of data.
Well clearly there are more powerful database systems than Filemaker but you'll need to specify tougher criteria than that to exceed Filemaker's limits!
Since Filemaker 7 you've been able to develop Filemaker DBs with up to 7 TeraBytes of data, 250 simultaneous Filemaker client users and (at the same time) 100 simultaneous web users (and you can also add in up to 50 ODBC clients).
For many, even quite large Company database projects (unless you are talking all staff in say a multi-national), Filemaker is a great product.
A ultraportable notebook would go a long way toward fixing that market. Dunno why the iMac does poorly.
Vinea
No built-in TV tuner is the first thing that comes to mind.
I hope that was all tongue in cheek....
While you're throwing out crazy ideas, why not include Nokia at it's peak too, and don't forget about Adobe (after all, doesn't adobe make a lot of money from video editing software?) and of course you can't forget adding in the market value of Tivo (Apple TV) and why not also throw in a dash of Logitech (those Apple mice rock!)...
No, it wasn't a joke - companies don't magically stop growing once they get to 100 billion. The market for computers, electronics and phones will be larger 5 or 10 years from now than it currently is, and Apple is poised to take a big chunk of that business.
Sony will be bigger also, but not as big as Apple.
No, it wasn't a joke - companies don't magically stop growing once they get to 100 billion. The market 5 years for computers, electronics and phones will be larger 5 or 10 years from now than it currently is, and Apple is poised to take a big chunk of that business.
Sony will be bigger also, but not as big as Apple.
Yikes. I would counter that if it's not magic that stops them from growing at 100 billion, I do wonder what it is, because history shows that it's *something* (100 billion is of course arbitrary, the number is somewhere up there though, just look at the top 10 list of big companies and see if you find one that resembles Apple)
OK, well good luck. Hopefully you'll be right. Can I ask what your Apple stock holdings are, with a view of the future like that?
My Apple stock accounts for just under 10% of my total equity holdings, and that's getting very high for me. Can I also ask what your experience was in the bubble burst of 2000? Mine involved seeing my portfolio decline about 75% over 3 years while I repeatedly told myself that the companies I owned were leaders in huge and growing industries, that they couldn't possibly be overpriced. I have tried to learn from those mistakes.
Yikes.
OK, well good luck. Hopefully you'll be right. Can I ask what your Apple stock holdings are, with a view of the future like that?
My Apple stock accounts for just under 10% of my total equity holdings, and that's getting very high for me. Can I also ask what your experience was in the bubble burst of 2000? Mine involved seeing my portfolio decline about 75% over 3 years while I repeatedly told myself that the companies I owned were leaders in huge and growing industries, that they couldn't possibly be overpriced. I have tried to learn from those mistakes.
I like to think that I have a pretty realistic view of market valuations - when Nortel was at $70 I told my friends that it was worth $5 and they laughed at me, and later stopped laughing as it dropped from $87 to 47 cents. I did lose quite a bit of money around that time (I think) - but it wasn't in internet stocks, it was with a company called Allied Products - and I lost money because they lied about their finances. Mostly I was trying to pay off a large business debt, which saved me from any market involvement.
I have my whole IRA in Apple stock, but that is 2% of my net worth.
Apple earnings growth is really good (P/E = 44, earnings growth 56%), and they have a low market share in everything except iPods (iTMS has high market share for online downloads, but they will take over most of the whole music industry, so I see iTMS as low market share inside the music industry rather than high share of downloads) so that growth has plenty of room to continue. I really think that the iPhone is still not priced in yet, and neither is the huge movie rental business that appleTV will turn into. Plus, apple will soon give us an earnings report, and I am guessing that they will report about 15 billion in cash - so only 105 billion in valuation (not 120) needs to be justified by earnings.
I am not selling my apple stock any time soon.
If Apple reaches its true potential, it will have the market cap of Sony (in 2000, at its peak) + Dell + Microsoft = $500 billion ($560/share). The computer market quadruples, and Apple takes 25% of it (= the whole current market). IMHO of course...
All this seems totally unrealistic, take a look at IDC's latest figures.
If the growth continues at the current pace (WW ~10%, US ~5%) the PC market won't quadruple anytime soon. Worldwide PC shipments will double in 7 years, PC sales in the U.S. will double in 15 years. Notebook sales are growing faster (WW and U.S. ~20%), in both cases notebook shipments will quadruple in 8 years.
We can sorta expect the WW market to double by 2014, if Mac sales keep growing steadily (25% YOY) over the next 7 years, Apple will take 6.74 percent of the worldwide market (33.7 million units out of 500.24 million) and 18.8 percent in the U.S. (18.5 million units out of 98.5 million).
All this seems totally unrealistic, take a look at IDC's latest figures.
If the growth continues at the current pace (WW ~10%, US ~5%) the PC market won't quadruple anytime soon. Worldwide PC shipments will double in 7 years, PC sales in the U.S. will double in 15 years. Notebook sales are growing faster (WW and U.S. ~20%), in both cases notebook shipments will quadruple in 8 years.
We can sorta expect the WW market to double by 2014, if Mac sales keep growing steadily (25% YOY) over the next 7 years, Apple will take 6.74 percent of the worldwide market (33.7 million units out of 500.24 million) and 18.8 percent in the U.S. (18.5 million units out of 98.5 million).
1. I think that worldwide computer usage is going to ramp faster than that - the 3rd world is getting richer at a much faster pace than it has in the past. China for example, has millions of people who are just now getting rich enough for luxury goods.
2. I think that Apple's market share will not grow at 25%, but will accelerate due to the crappyness of Vista and the halo effect.
You have to wonder when Apple will unleash some enterprise database management solutions. They are hardly inexperienced given their little set up, aka iTunes. Or is someone going to ruin my day and tell me that all runs on PCs using MS File?
Have you checked out http://www.sybase.com/partner/mac.
I dont know much about that kind of software but I just typed "enterprise database management solutions for mac" into google. and the above website came up.