Constable, are his estimates too high? I bought into AAPL around $59-75 last year and AAPL stock price has far surpassed Gene's estimates at the time (he did say a 12-month price target of around $120, which seemed unreal at the time yet today's price is $154.08). If we look at his track record, his estimates might even be characterized as understated.
I don't know if his estimates for Apple are too high. They're just higher than most. And of course, to me, they do seem unreal. I don't track estimates analysts give for the most part. I usually can't even remember six months ago.
I do notice that Wu Shaw or Shaw Wu usually gives low estimates and Gene gives high estimates. I happen to notice that estimates are constantly revised. So in three months from now, Gene could revise his estimates down. Hopefully, he won't. But I know for certain I've seen high estimates by a particular analyst, the stock never reaches it, and then is revised down by the same analyst. One example of such a mess happened to Motorola.
So, no, I don't really have an accurate take on whether his estimates are close or not for a 12 month period. It's easy for them to just throw around big numbers, but I try not to get too carried away as I don't wan't to be let down too much if it doesn't pan out. Sorry, but I've had a number of stocks that were supposedly sure things. Plenty of buy ratings but in the end bye, bye.
I was reading what bigapple was saying about there's nothing to justify these numbers of $150. See, I don't understand any of this. Other people say Apple is still priced conservatively and worth the current price. Yet RIM is even more overpriced and keeps pulling stronger. Everybody must see different meanings in the numbers and all this does is give me a headache because I don't see anything that makes much sense to me.
I think Microsoft reps said a few times that they're working on a phone, one time they said this before Apple announced theirs. The only thing they've done lately is drop the Zune price, which now looks like too little, too late.
With the FCC approval cycle running about six months, I don't think we'll see a Zphone any time soon. I suspect MS planned a three year business model to reach "parity" with Apple's ipod product lline (at least on paper, spec-wise). I also suspect that the big loser in the Amazon music store "experiment" will be Microsoft and their two DRMs. Of course the "experiment" will be declared a success (how could it not be? it's just another wing of Amazon's on-line service. They still have unbox, after all). The proof of "success" will be when (not if) Universal pulls their library from iTunes for Amazon. Look for AAPL to take a big hit then (after it has soared when the December financials are released (30 million ipods, anyone?).
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Constable, are his estimates too high? I bought into AAPL around $59-75 last year and AAPL stock price has far surpassed Gene's estimates at the time (he did say a 12-month price target of around $120, which seemed unreal at the time yet today's price is $154.08). If we look at his track record, his estimates might even be characterized as understated.
I don't know if his estimates for Apple are too high. They're just higher than most. And of course, to me, they do seem unreal. I don't track estimates analysts give for the most part. I usually can't even remember six months ago.
I do notice that Wu Shaw or Shaw Wu usually gives low estimates and Gene gives high estimates. I happen to notice that estimates are constantly revised. So in three months from now, Gene could revise his estimates down. Hopefully, he won't. But I know for certain I've seen high estimates by a particular analyst, the stock never reaches it, and then is revised down by the same analyst. One example of such a mess happened to Motorola.
So, no, I don't really have an accurate take on whether his estimates are close or not for a 12 month period. It's easy for them to just throw around big numbers, but I try not to get too carried away as I don't wan't to be let down too much if it doesn't pan out. Sorry, but I've had a number of stocks that were supposedly sure things. Plenty of buy ratings but in the end bye, bye.
I was reading what bigapple was saying about there's nothing to justify these numbers of $150. See, I don't understand any of this. Other people say Apple is still priced conservatively and worth the current price. Yet RIM is even more overpriced and keeps pulling stronger. Everybody must see different meanings in the numbers and all this does is give me a headache because I don't see anything that makes much sense to me.
I think Microsoft reps said a few times that they're working on a phone, one time they said this before Apple announced theirs. The only thing they've done lately is drop the Zune price, which now looks like too little, too late.
With the FCC approval cycle running about six months, I don't think we'll see a Zphone any time soon. I suspect MS planned a three year business model to reach "parity" with Apple's ipod product lline (at least on paper, spec-wise). I also suspect that the big loser in the Amazon music store "experiment" will be Microsoft and their two DRMs. Of course the "experiment" will be declared a success (how could it not be? it's just another wing of Amazon's on-line service. They still have unbox, after all). The proof of "success" will be when (not if) Universal pulls their library from iTunes for Amazon. Look for AAPL to take a big hit then (after it has soared when the December financials are released (30 million ipods, anyone?).