Apple needs to keep investing in innovation, not paying dividends. It's already done right by its shareholders via the stock price, so there is no need to pay dividends.
I don't think Apple is investing its $15B into innovation, that's an accumulation of what's left over. That has been invested too, but not into innovation as far as I know.
It's sad to see what is being sold off as "advanced" in terms of functionality in the US. Even the average cell phone in China these days has GPS, etc., etc.....
Your post missed a couple of big (and obvious) things. In the paragraph above, you fail to note that the iPhone will go from a USA only product (potential market of ATT users - 40 million or so) to a worldwide product. Each large country (England, France, Germany all count, and many more will follow) it launches in essentially adds another USA sized market to sell to.
No, adding those countries is not like adding another US sized market. Combined it may equal ONE US sized market, but its still a stretch.
How exactly does a stock price target work? Does Piper Jaffray mean that the stock will hit $250 by this time next year? If it hits $250 in 2008 when selling 12.9 million iPhones, imagine what it will be at if Apple really does sell 45 million units in calendar year 2009.
How exactly does a stock price target work? Does Piper Jaffray mean that the stock will hit $250 by this time next year? If it hits $250 in 2008 when selling 12.9 million iPhones, imagine what it will be at if Apple really does sell 45 million units in calendar year 2009.
Most "target" prices I've heard about are 12 months out. It's always an estimate of what the price will be at that time. A lot of things can happen in 12 months that can change the value that can't always be accounted for when the estimate was made.
I think 45M is an underestimate. I suspect it will be nearer 60M worldwide in '09. Arithmetic ratio increases are perfectly possible in the mobile phone market and, unlike Motorola, Apple are masters at managing a hot product cycle.
How exactly does a stock price target work? Does Piper Jaffray mean that the stock will hit $250 by this time next year? If it hits $250 in 2008 when selling 12.9 million iPhones, imagine what it will be at if Apple really does sell 45 million units in calendar year 2009.
Bingo
That is why Piper Jaffray is the only WS firm that has it figured out. By 09 this stock could be 500+
It's sad to see what is being sold off as "advanced" in terms of functionality in the US. Even the average cell phone in China these days has GPS, etc., etc.....
I don't know if I would automatiaclly tag a phone with GPS as "advnaced". This assumes any phone with GPS performs as well as every other phone without GPS. That there is no trade off to use GPS in phone size or battery efficiency.
Granted those three countries make up roughly 2/3 of US population but EU has 500 mil total. Now let's talk about Asia:
Korea 50 mil
Japan 127 mil
India 1.1 bil
China 1.3 bil
It is not at all a stretch for AAPL to sell 45 mil iPhones by end of 2009.
The reason I said that adding those countries accounts for another USA sized country is because of the far higher cell phone penetration and for the most part, less focus on contracts and early cancellation fees (thus enabling more people to be free to look at the iPhone). The third factor is that those countries' users are far more used to paying a premium for a premium phone, from what I understand, vs US customers who on the whole are far more used to getting a crappy phone for free for signing a long term contract.
I realize it's not exact, but I think just looking at total citizens misses a LOT of the point when talking about the high end cell phone market.
augur, apparently you don't understand the stockmarket. A private business has an IPO (initial public offering) and the company is then owned by the shareholders. If the company grows then the company is worth more, if the company is worth more the shares are worth more. It's really not that hard.
Apple is growing so the stock is going up accordingly.
It is not at all a stretch for AAPL to sell 45 mil iPhones by end of 2009.
India and China? ... sorry but that was a laugh out loud post for me... you're talking about countries with some serious poverty issues. The China's GDP in 2006 was 20% that of the United States and ranked 110th of 183 nations in 2005. And India, 1 in every 4 people in India is below the poverty level. The iPhone is geared toward people with average to above average incomes (by US standards) this is not a device that will do great in India. Granted they are one of the fastest growing economies in the world, the World Bank still classifies them as a low-income economy. These are two countries that have a monumental amount of catching up to do. You can't just go throwing around number without looking at the demographics.
I do understand everyone's zeal for the iPhone and their desires for it to be incredibly successful, but 2009 is a long ways away, and 45M is a very impressive number. I can't see it happening, not in '09 anyways.
A message to those posting the country's population in order to see if Apple can sell 45M iPhones through 2009:
You are going about this the wrong way.
If you wish to find out about the actual numbers you first need to determine the number of subscribers for each respective carrier in each respective country. Then assign a possible percentage of saturation (say 2%) for that carrier.
If the country has laws that prevent locking you'll have to determine the number of cell phone subscribers. Now, because of the increased price for unlocked countries you may want to consider financial demographics, too. This means an overall lower per capita purchase, especially especially among countries with a large lower class.
This will obviously take a little research but you I'm betting that some of the analysts have already done this. I don't think 45M is too lofty a goal per the reasons I stated in an early post.
Anyone there will willing to take the time to run the numbers?
India and China? ... sorry but that was a laugh out loud post for me... you're talking about countries with some serious poverty issues. The China's GDP in 2006 was 20% that of the United States and ranked 110th of 183 nations in 2005. And India, 1 in every 4 people in India is below the poverty level. The iPhone is geared toward people with average to above average incomes (by US standards) this is not a device that will do great in India. Granted they are one of the fastest growing economies in the world, the World Bank still classifies them as a low-income economy. These are two countries that have a monumental amount of catching up to do. You can't just go throwing around number without looking at the demographics.
I do understand everyone's zeal for the iPhone and their desires for it to be incredibly successful, but 2009 is a long ways away, and 45M is a very impressive number. I can't see it happening, not in '09 anyways.
So are you telling me that out of 2.4 bil people in China and India, that some of those people cannot afford an iPhone? 45M in 2 years is not a big number for a company that is selling 10M iPods every 3 months. Think about it.
So are you telling me that out of 2.4 bil people in China and India, that some of those people cannot afford an iPhone? 45M in 2 years is not a big number for a company that is selling 10M iPods every 3 months. Think about it.
MOST of those people can't afford an iPhone and never will. They're considered "Third World" countries for a reason. What people don't seem to understand is that you can't go about making a direct comparison from iPod sales to iPhone sales. The iPhone is based on a subscription. You don't need to go about signing a contract to have an iPod. The iPhone requires people to sign a $60- a month 2-year contract in the United States and probably more elsewhere (like Canada). Yes, 10M iPods every 3 months is very impressive, but you have to factor in all the variables... like that fact that the most popular iPod is the nano, which starts at $149-. The iPhone on the other hand starts at $399-. This is also another very big step for consumers. I know it seems like I'm dumbing this down a lot, but I feel that people fail to look at all the variables involved. 45M is an incredibly large number. Thank you for asking me to "Think about it", I have and am more resolute on my belief because of it.
A message to those posting the country's population in order to see if Apple can sell 45M iPhones through 2009:
You are going about this the wrong way.
If you wish to find out about the actual numbers you first need to determine the number of subscribers for each respective carrier in each respective country. Then assign a possible percentage of saturation (say 2%) for that carrier.
If the country has laws that prevent locking you'll have to determine the number of cell phone subscribers. Now, because of the increased price for unlocked countries you may want to consider financial demographics, too. This means an overall lower per capita purchase, especially especially among countries with a large lower class.
This will obviously take a little research but you I'm betting that some of the analysts have already done this. I don't think 45M is too lofty a goal per the reasons I stated in an early post.
Anyone there will willing to take the time to run the numbers?
I was simply demonstrating that the US market is not the only or the biggest in the world. There are a lot more people in the rest of the world and if iPhone can reach even a fraction of the population around the world, then 45 mil is not a big number in 2+ years.
Comments
Apple needs to keep investing in innovation, not paying dividends. It's already done right by its shareholders via the stock price, so there is no need to pay dividends.
I don't think Apple is investing its $15B into innovation, that's an accumulation of what's left over. That has been invested too, but not into innovation as far as I know.
Eventhough I bought stock when it was well under $100, I think I'll suck it up and buy some more.
I'd wait for a bigger drop.
Your post missed a couple of big (and obvious) things. In the paragraph above, you fail to note that the iPhone will go from a USA only product (potential market of ATT users - 40 million or so) to a worldwide product. Each large country (England, France, Germany all count, and many more will follow) it launches in essentially adds another USA sized market to sell to.
No, adding those countries is not like adding another US sized market. Combined it may equal ONE US sized market, but its still a stretch.
How exactly does a stock price target work? Does Piper Jaffray mean that the stock will hit $250 by this time next year? If it hits $250 in 2008 when selling 12.9 million iPhones, imagine what it will be at if Apple really does sell 45 million units in calendar year 2009.
Most "target" prices I've heard about are 12 months out. It's always an estimate of what the price will be at that time. A lot of things can happen in 12 months that can change the value that can't always be accounted for when the estimate was made.
No, adding those countries is not like adding another US sized market. Combined it may equal ONE US sized market, but its still a stretch.
US has 300 mil
England has 51 mil
France has 61 mil
Germany has 82 mil
Granted those three countries make up roughly 2/3 of US population but EU has 500 mil total. Now let's talk about Asia:
Korea 50 mil
Japan 127 mil
India 1.1 bil
China 1.3 bil
It is not at all a stretch for AAPL to sell 45 mil iPhones by end of 2009.
Are you sure this guy meant 45 million units or 45M in revenue?
The iPhone will do well, but 45M units sound completely out of whack...maybe more like 4.5 M units.
Even Apple said it would sell 10 million by the end of next year-- he really, actually, truly MEANT 45 million iPhones for 2009!!!
How exactly does a stock price target work? Does Piper Jaffray mean that the stock will hit $250 by this time next year? If it hits $250 in 2008 when selling 12.9 million iPhones, imagine what it will be at if Apple really does sell 45 million units in calendar year 2009.
Bingo
That is why Piper Jaffray is the only WS firm that has it figured out. By 09 this stock could be 500+
It's sad to see what is being sold off as "advanced" in terms of functionality in the US. Even the average cell phone in China these days has GPS, etc., etc.....
I don't know if I would automatiaclly tag a phone with GPS as "advnaced". This assumes any phone with GPS performs as well as every other phone without GPS. That there is no trade off to use GPS in phone size or battery efficiency.
US has 300 mil
England has 51 mil
France has 61 mil
Germany has 82 mil
Granted those three countries make up roughly 2/3 of US population but EU has 500 mil total. Now let's talk about Asia:
Korea 50 mil
Japan 127 mil
India 1.1 bil
China 1.3 bil
It is not at all a stretch for AAPL to sell 45 mil iPhones by end of 2009.
The reason I said that adding those countries accounts for another USA sized country is because of the far higher cell phone penetration and for the most part, less focus on contracts and early cancellation fees (thus enabling more people to be free to look at the iPhone). The third factor is that those countries' users are far more used to paying a premium for a premium phone, from what I understand, vs US customers who on the whole are far more used to getting a crappy phone for free for signing a long term contract.
I realize it's not exact, but I think just looking at total citizens misses a LOT of the point when talking about the high end cell phone market.
The stock market is a ponzi scheme, and it only sustains itself because there ever a new generation of suckers to perpetuate it.
This is a good example of pump and dump that so-called "impartial" pundits engage in.
The stock market is a ponzi scheme, and it only sustains itself because there ever a new generation of suckers to perpetuate it.
Must be rough only earning 4% on your investments
Apple is growing so the stock is going up accordingly.
India 1.1 bil
China 1.3 bil
It is not at all a stretch for AAPL to sell 45 mil iPhones by end of 2009.
India and China? ... sorry but that was a laugh out loud post for me... you're talking about countries with some serious poverty issues. The China's GDP in 2006 was 20% that of the United States and ranked 110th of 183 nations in 2005. And India, 1 in every 4 people in India is below the poverty level. The iPhone is geared toward people with average to above average incomes (by US standards) this is not a device that will do great in India. Granted they are one of the fastest growing economies in the world, the World Bank still classifies them as a low-income economy. These are two countries that have a monumental amount of catching up to do. You can't just go throwing around number without looking at the demographics.
I do understand everyone's zeal for the iPhone and their desires for it to be incredibly successful, but 2009 is a long ways away, and 45M is a very impressive number. I can't see it happening, not in '09 anyways.
You are going about this the wrong way.
If you wish to find out about the actual numbers you first need to determine the number of subscribers for each respective carrier in each respective country. Then assign a possible percentage of saturation (say 2%) for that carrier.
If the country has laws that prevent locking you'll have to determine the number of cell phone subscribers. Now, because of the increased price for unlocked countries you may want to consider financial demographics, too. This means an overall lower per capita purchase, especially especially among countries with a large lower class.
This will obviously take a little research but you I'm betting that some of the analysts have already done this. I don't think 45M is too lofty a goal per the reasons I stated in an early post.
Anyone there will willing to take the time to run the numbers?
India and China? ... sorry but that was a laugh out loud post for me... you're talking about countries with some serious poverty issues. The China's GDP in 2006 was 20% that of the United States and ranked 110th of 183 nations in 2005. And India, 1 in every 4 people in India is below the poverty level. The iPhone is geared toward people with average to above average incomes (by US standards) this is not a device that will do great in India. Granted they are one of the fastest growing economies in the world, the World Bank still classifies them as a low-income economy. These are two countries that have a monumental amount of catching up to do. You can't just go throwing around number without looking at the demographics.
I do understand everyone's zeal for the iPhone and their desires for it to be incredibly successful, but 2009 is a long ways away, and 45M is a very impressive number. I can't see it happening, not in '09 anyways.
So are you telling me that out of 2.4 bil people in China and India, that some of those people cannot afford an iPhone? 45M in 2 years is not a big number for a company that is selling 10M iPods every 3 months. Think about it.
So are you telling me that out of 2.4 bil people in China and India, that some of those people cannot afford an iPhone? 45M in 2 years is not a big number for a company that is selling 10M iPods every 3 months. Think about it.
MOST of those people can't afford an iPhone and never will. They're considered "Third World" countries for a reason. What people don't seem to understand is that you can't go about making a direct comparison from iPod sales to iPhone sales. The iPhone is based on a subscription. You don't need to go about signing a contract to have an iPod. The iPhone requires people to sign a $60- a month 2-year contract in the United States and probably more elsewhere (like Canada). Yes, 10M iPods every 3 months is very impressive, but you have to factor in all the variables... like that fact that the most popular iPod is the nano, which starts at $149-. The iPhone on the other hand starts at $399-. This is also another very big step for consumers. I know it seems like I'm dumbing this down a lot, but I feel that people fail to look at all the variables involved. 45M is an incredibly large number. Thank you for asking me to "Think about it", I have and am more resolute on my belief because of it.
A message to those posting the country's population in order to see if Apple can sell 45M iPhones through 2009:
You are going about this the wrong way.
If you wish to find out about the actual numbers you first need to determine the number of subscribers for each respective carrier in each respective country. Then assign a possible percentage of saturation (say 2%) for that carrier.
If the country has laws that prevent locking you'll have to determine the number of cell phone subscribers. Now, because of the increased price for unlocked countries you may want to consider financial demographics, too. This means an overall lower per capita purchase, especially especially among countries with a large lower class.
This will obviously take a little research but you I'm betting that some of the analysts have already done this. I don't think 45M is too lofty a goal per the reasons I stated in an early post.
Anyone there will willing to take the time to run the numbers?
I was simply demonstrating that the US market is not the only or the biggest in the world. There are a lot more people in the rest of the world and if iPhone can reach even a fraction of the population around the world, then 45 mil is not a big number in 2+ years.