Wall Street analysts weigh in on Apple's Macworld announcements

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  • Reply 21 of 39
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,951member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TrojanShawn View Post


    I'm curious why you think this? Blockbuster's Total Access program is very comparable to NetFlix (if not better IMO). I like the fact that you can return a movie you received in the mail to a Blockbuster location and get a free in-store rental. That way you have another movie to watch while waiting for the next one in the mail to arrive.



    Blockbuster is/was a better deal assuming you get equal service, though they did later restrict the number of in store return/rents, I forget what they called it. They weren't a factor as the nearest BB is too far away for me.
  • Reply 22 of 39
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by edunaway View Post


    In my area many grocery stores have had rentals for $1-2 each for nearly a decade. My point is why must we accept that a movie rental should cost $3-4 from an online store? They do not have the same overhead costs of a retail establishment, no inventory to worry about and distribution costs are much lower so pass on the savings to the consumer.



    And for the same reasons why must my viewing period be limited to 24 hours? What if I want to take my time and watch it over a couple of days? A 24 limit made sense for physical media because they want to maximize their rentals and they are limited by the physical media, but with a digital download they can rent unlimited copies concurrently.



    The prices and rental periods are old retail mindset models that, just like the album, need to be broken up.



    Grocery stores aren't making money on those rentals. Indeed, they may be losing money on them. They are called "loss leaders". They draw you into the store, where you then (or at least most people) buy other products from which they DO make profit.



    Walmart does this with DVD sales. They really don't care that much about the sales, but they do care about the people they bring into the isles.
  • Reply 23 of 39
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    With respect to AIR that is. I still can't get the hardware to jive with the price being asked and likely never will. It is good to know that the people being paid to think about these sorts of things see problems with AIR also.



    If nothing else maybe this will drive Apples stock back down to around $65!



    dave
  • Reply 24 of 39
    blah64blah64 Posts: 993member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    While almost all of the people renting will surely fall into the category who watch a movie all at once, I do like the idea of 36 hours so you can continue a second night if need be. Blockbusters new movie rentals are two days, but that isn't 48 hours because they are due my noon on that 2nd day, and if you rent them at night you have as little as 35 hours to get it home watch it and have it returned. But that is a good measure since you can hold onto an iTS rental for 30 days. The only think that I think will eventually change is when new movies become available on iTS.



    More often than not we can watch a movie straight through, but it's actually fairly often that's not possible. I can tell you folks are all either young, single, dincs or older/retired. Anyone with children understands how often you're interrupted and/or someone falls asleep, etc. Heh. Anyway, 24 hours is a deal-breaker.



    Like a couple others said here, even 36 hours would make a world of difference. On the other hand, it's very likely that Apple didn't make that call, rather the movie distributors pushed for that limit.
  • Reply 25 of 39
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,951member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Grocery stores aren't making money on those rentals. Indeed, they may be losing money on them. They are called "loss leaders". They draw you into the store, where you then (or at least most people) buy other products from which they DO make profit.



    I can see it doing well enough though, depending on how it's set up and the amount of rents it gets. It doesn't need the floor plan or the staffing of a huge Blockbuster store. The system that's in use in my area seems to be managed by a third party, kind of like a vending machine, in size and automation.



    The machine has its own credit card swipe system, and the machine has mechanisms and disc label scanners to manage returns so the store staff shouldn't have to touch anything about it, a return is automatically accepted and reinserted into the catalogue.
  • Reply 26 of 39
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


    I can see it doing well enough though, depending on how it's set up and the amount of rents it gets. It doesn't need the footprint or the staffing of a huge Blockbuster store. The system that's in use in my area seems to be managed by a third party, kind of like a vending machine, in size and automation.



    The machine has its own credit card swipe system, and the machine has mechanisms and disc label scanners to manage returns so the store staff shouldn't have to touch anything about it.



    Cringley has talked about this before. I think it's inevitable that we'll see iTunes kiosks eventually. I think Airports make the most sense for its induction.
  • Reply 27 of 39
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by edunaway View Post


    In my area many grocery stores have had rentals for $1-2 each for nearly a decade. My point is why must we accept that a movie rental should cost $3-4 from an online store? They do not have the same overhead costs of a retail establishment, no inventory to worry about and distribution costs are much lower so pass on the savings to the consumer.



    And for the same reasons why must my viewing period be limited to 24 hours? What if I want to take my time and watch it over a couple of days? A 24 limit made sense for physical media because they want to maximize their rentals and they are limited by the physical media, but with a digital download they can rent unlimited copies concurrently.



    To address both of your points, it's because the movie studios set the terms, and they have more control over digital rentals than sending out discs. You may not want to accept it, but if the movie studios dictate a price of $2.99 (likely because they want $1.99 or more per viewing), none of the download services have much of a choice.



    Rental of physical discs can be much cheaper just because they have the option of buying the disc and not paying a per-view royalty. If they buy a movie for $15, they can charge a buck per rental and they're in the black once they've rented it fifteen times. For a download company, it's flat out impossible to compete with that pricewise.



    And what kind of selection does your grocery store have for a buck a rental? 1000 titles like the iTunes store will have by the end of februrary? I doubt it.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by runnerxt2001 View Post


    You can rent movies at any Redbox for only $1 a night and they are popping up everywhere. You can usually find them outside of McDonalds and inside grocery stores if they are in your area.



    And how many titles do they have to choose from on a given night (assuming the titles are even in stock)?
  • Reply 28 of 39
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


    I can see it doing well enough though, depending on how it's set up and the amount of rents it gets. It doesn't need the floor plan or the staffing of a huge Blockbuster store. The system that's in use in my area seems to be managed by a third party, kind of like a vending machine, in size and automation.



    The machine has its own credit card swipe system, and the machine has mechanisms and disc label scanners to manage returns so the store staff shouldn't have to touch anything about it, a return is automatically accepted and reinserted into the catalogue.







    Do you know how much those machines cost? It would take a LOT of rentals at $1 , or even $2, to make it up to the company that's putting it out there. If, instead, the store is leasing it, it would cost a lot for the store.



    We had a machine like that at my lab, except it made prints that a customer could do themselves. It looked good on paper, but never made a profit for us, or the company we leased it from. We weren't the kind of lab that needed to lure people in, as we were mostly pro, so we had them take the machine back after almost a year of bother.



    But, these stores might find otherwise for them.
  • Reply 29 of 39
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Cringley has talked about this before. I think it's inevitable that we'll see iTunes kiosks eventually. I think Airports make the most sense for its induction.



    It might work better for digital files, if they can figure out how to manage it. Would the customer need to bring their own media? Or would it actually have the movies on something? I don't see that as an answer. The idea would be to make the machine as cheap as possible, but it would need to have all the files on some huge built-in file server. I don't know. Maybe sometime in the future.
  • Reply 30 of 39
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    It might work better for digital files, if they can figure out how to manage it. Would the customer need to bring their own media? Or would it actually have the movies on something? I don't see that as an answer. The idea would be to make the machine as cheap as possible, but it would need to have all the files on some huge built-in file server. I don't know. Maybe sometime in the future.



    I thought of airports for a few basic reasons: High rate of traffic, premium pricing, & flying is dull.



    I was thinking a the large server that only holds the latest movies, TV Shows and, perhaps, music, though music files are small enough that they could be streamed from the iTunes main servers.



    I was thinking of an iPod dock for iDevices and a USB port for notebooks.



    The notebooks would have to be running iTunes, of course, By plugging into the USB cable and opening up iTunes it would auto-sense the signal it was receiving and take you a special store that had only the items in that kiosk. It would then function just like the iTunes Store.



    For iDevices, it would have to be different, but trying to maintain the iPod as a dumb device i came up with following:. I can't imagine having a mini iTunes on the iPod to verify one's account, so instead you would directly use a credit or debit card scanner to pay for media. It would then determine if you have enough space on your device before uploading. Rental items will expire as normal and purchased media will upload back to your iTunes account the next time you sync up. Since the iPod can't do this maneuver it would be easier for the purchased items to have a specific tag attached to them that tells iTunes to pull the purchased and rented media back to the PC/Mac.



    This would be easier to do with iDevices as the kiosk space would take up considerably less room than a notebook, you can easily charge them while they are docking and uploading, and potentially offer much smaller rental sizes that would sync much faster.



    The problem with notebooks is that doing a sync, even if it is only 10 minutes, over USB for a movie would mean that a power source may need to available. a dying battery is disastrous in an airport and outlets are hard to come by—I bring a travel power supply with me just so I squeeze into a used outlet—but then people may decide to loiter ther to charge their machine. My resolution is that the outlet would only be powered when the download process started.



    Just a thought...
  • Reply 31 of 39
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I thought of airports for a few basic reasons: High rate of traffic, premium pricing, & flying is dull.



    I was thinking a the large server that only holds the latest movies, TV Shows and, perhaps, music, though music files are small enough that they could be streamed from the iTunes main servers.



    I was thinking of an iPod dock for iDevices and a USB port for notebooks.



    The notebooks would have to be running iTunes, of course, By plugging into the USB cable and opening up iTunes it would auto-sense the signal it was receiving and take you a special store that had only the items in that kiosk. It would then function just like the iTunes Store.



    For iDevices, it would have to be different, but trying to maintain the iPod as a dumb device i came up with following:. I can't imagine having a mini iTunes on the iPod to verify one's account, so instead you would directly use a credit or debit card scanner to pay for media. It would then determine if you have enough space on your device before uploading. Rental items will expire as normal and purchased media will upload back to your iTunes account the next time you sync up. Since the iPod can't do this maneuver it would be easier for the purchased items to have a specific tag attached to them that tells iTunes to pull the purchased and rented media back to the PC/Mac.



    This would be easier to do with iDevices as the kiosk space would take up considerably less room than a notebook, you can easily charge them while they are docking and uploading, and potentially offer much smaller rental sizes that would sync much faster.



    The problem with notebooks is that doing a sync, even if it is only 10 minutes, over USB for a movie would mean that a power source may need to available. a dying battery is disastrous in an airport and outlets are hard to come by?I bring a travel power supply with me just so I squeeze into a used outlet?but then people may decide to loiter ther to charge their machine. My resolution is that the outlet would only be powered when the download process started.



    Just a thought...



    That's somewhere about what I was thinking. the problem is that the download to the device would have to be quick. It couldn't take ten minutes. Paying through an iTouch, or iPhone wouldn't be a big deal. Apple would have to implement it. This is what they do in Japan and S Korea now. They pay for almost every little automated purchase with their phones.



    It was even a question as to whether the iPhone would sell there because of the lack of that ability.
  • Reply 32 of 39
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    That's somewhere about what I was thinking. the problem is that the download to the device would have to be quick. It couldn't take ten minutes. Paying through an iTouch, or iPhone wouldn't be a big deal. Apple would have to implement it. This is what they do in Japan and S Korea now. They pay for almost every little automated purchase with their phones.



    It was even a question as to whether the iPhone would sell there because of the lack of that ability.



    I was using a scenario where someone would be ordering many items. I certainly know I would. Takes me about a minute to copy a 1.5GB iTS movie between HDDs over USB2.0.



    I wasn't thinking of paying via the iPhone/iPod Touch, I was talking about a separate card swipe, like at a gas station pump or ATM. But I like your idea, but can the American people handle it?
  • Reply 33 of 39
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I was using a scenario where someone would be ordering many items. I certainly know I would. Takes me about a minute to copy a 1.5GB iTS movie between HDDs over USB2.0.



    I wasn't thinking of paying via the iPhone/iPod Touch, I was talking about a separate card swipe, like at a gas station pump or ATM. But I like your idea, but can the American people handle it?



    A minute is pretty fast. I'm not sure these slow devices could manage that.



    I quess you could use a card. But plug the device in, and a message on a screen asking if you want to use your account to pay for the purchase would simplify things.



    In the East, when they buy from a vending machine, the phone doesn't have to be connected.
  • Reply 34 of 39
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Most people watch a film ONCE, so buying them is not preferable. It's why rental stores did so well in the 80s and 90s.







    But in some ways it's more free as you don't have to wait days between ordering movies and them arriving and can take as many with you on a trip.





    You are not wrong. The only way you can't move a rented video from the AppleTV is if it's HD. You also can't rent an HD movie from within iTunes. I suspect the reason for this is too keep these customers from trying to get out ncnompatible files on there iDevices and then bitching when they realize that the kbps are too large for the small processors to handle.





    Dude- do you ever disagree with anything Apple puts out? You must be paid by Apple.
  • Reply 35 of 39
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by user23 View Post


    you have 30 days to watch the movie...once played, you have 24 hours to complete viewing. Hardly a limiting model given how most people rent movies. I suppose it's not as free as the netflix model (keep it until you return it)...but this is very similar.



    also, what do you mean "not being able to put it on both the Apple TV and iPod"? The movie rental concept demoed (maybe I'm wrong here) via Take 2. And, I think I remember Jobs saying that you _can_ transfer the video to any current generation iPod/iPhone.



    edit: By the way, where in the world can anyone rent a movie for $1-$2?



    Down here in Aust we only pay $1.95 per movie for new releases for 24hr
  • Reply 36 of 39
    johnqhjohnqh Posts: 242member
    Among all the MacWorld reviews, I think WSJ got it.



    Macbook Air looks hot, but it is just a product line extension.



    Apple TV/iTunes movie rental doesn't look like a big deal, but it will be a quarter to half of Apple's revenue in 5 years.



    Apple is all about making is simple. There is no simpler way to rent a movie than Apple TV. Yes, I will get one. $3/$4 may sound more expensive, but it is not.



    1. Comparing to physical DVD rentals, think about the gas and time saved (for two trips). I will be glad to pay $2 extra to save 30 minutes!



    2. Comparing to Netflix DVD's...are you kidding me? The best thing about Netflix is its free trial. Once you becomes a paying member, the DVD delivery became so slow that sometimes I had to wait for one week for my DVD's, and usually I don't get the top choices. It seems Netflix gave free trial members higher priorities. I have used their free trial twice, and became paying member twice, with the same result.



    3. Comparing to Netflix online - the 6000 titles on Netflix is just not enough, and no new releases, no TV shows, and not even all the good old releases. And who wants to watch a movie on a computer screen anyway? (except computer nerds) Also, again, think about time saved. How long does it take to get a movie ready to play on Netflix?



    Count my words....Netflix (and BlockBuster) will be in big trouble...Will either be sold or go out of business in the next five years. Microsoft will soon (in two years) offer something similar to iTunes movie rental on XBox. When we look back five years from now, iTunes movie rental/Apple TV 2.0 will be the defining moment of this MacWorld Expo.
  • Reply 37 of 39
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by johnqh View Post


    2. Comparing to Netflix DVD's...are you kidding me? The best thing about Netflix is its free trial. Once you becomes a paying member, the DVD delivery became so slow that sometimes I had to wait for one week for my DVD's, and usually I don't get the top choices. It seems Netflix gave free trial members higher priorities. I have used their free trial twice, and became paying member twice, with the same result.



    It sounds like you just had some bad luck. I've had some delays with netflix, but the vast majority of the time I still get a movie two business days after I put it in the mail. Even at a week per delivery, on the 3 plan that's 12 movies per month for $17 or whatever.



    I don't really see netflix and things like iTunes as direct competitors (yet). Each has advantages and disadvantages, and I don't see NF dying too soon.



    But download services have room to improve while snailmail ones are about as good as they can get. Assuming the studios cooperate, apple can vastly increase their selection. And in the future, it's possible that they could get the studios to agree to a subscription plan (is any download service doing a subscription plan with a decent selection?). If those things happen, it will put more pressure on netflix, and eventually they could become obsolete.
  • Reply 38 of 39
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,951member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by johnqh View Post


    2. Comparing to Netflix DVD's...are you kidding me? The best thing about Netflix is its free trial. Once you becomes a paying member, the DVD delivery became so slow that sometimes I had to wait for one week for my DVD's, and usually I don't get the top choices. It seems Netflix gave free trial members higher priorities. I have used their free trial twice, and became paying member twice, with the same result.



    I am a subscriber, and I think your experience might be an outlier. It might vary by region, it can vary based on what title you want, but most of my stuff is one day there, one day back.
  • Reply 39 of 39
    g3prog3pro Posts: 669member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


    Fortunately, the real world isn't that pessimistic. That would require Apple stock to drop by more than a third - after a 5 or 6% drop yesterday. It would take far worse economic conditions than we're likely to see for the market to drop that much.



    AAPL was just at $118. Pretty close to my price target, if I may say so.
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