Piper: over half million "missing" iPhones likely in channel



  • Reply 61 of 67
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

    The smart phone industry in the U.S. is not that advanced - that is in fact why the lack of 3G in the States is less of an issue for the iPhone there then anywhere else.

    That's part of it. The other part is the networks... compared to Asia and Europe, we've only had 3G for a short time... decent 3G coverage has only been available for a year or two, and only if you had Sprint or Verizon. ATT just now is starting to get 'okay' 3G coverage, and T-Mobile has only just started to deploy 3G now. \

    So, as a consumer expectation, 3G hasn't been that big a deal in the US... it's 'too new'. That will change, though.


    The iPhone actually does better than Symbian in the US, according to Jobs at MWorld. Now it probably wont take that position in the rest of the World, but a 10-20% of this market is not to be sneezed at. Long term this is huge.

    Yeah, I also would expect Apple to have its highest marketshare in the US. After all, Symbian is brutally dominant overseas, with something like 75% of world smartphone marketshare. The US is one of the few places where Symbian is relatively weak.

    But you're absolutely right, if Apple gets even 10% of the world smartphone market in the long-term, that'd come out to around 25 million units a year eventually, assuming growth trends hold, which is awesome. But easier said than done, of course.

    Still, let's put it this way... Windows Mobile is around 5% of the worldwide smartphone market, and thats with WM being a kludge product thats been around for several years without exciting much of anybody.

    I'm sure Apple can beat that.

    (oh, and RIM has 7.5% world smartphone marketshare... that's a good benchmark to try to beat, as RIM, unlike Microsoft, does make a good product in this space)

  • Reply 62 of 67
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

    I would. The smart phone industry in the U.S. is not that advanced - that is in fact why the lack of 3G in the States is less of an issue for the iPhone there then anywhere else.

    It really depends what is the definition of a smart phone and how people use them.

    For the US business community, a blackberry on lowly GPRS speed is more useful than a 3G symbian phone.

    For the rest of the world, end-users think smart phone is useful to play a few video clips that they ripped themselves.
  • Reply 63 of 67
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

    A few points to Samab ( and others)

    1) Nothing you have said convinces me that Apple sees channel inventory as sales.

    I don't have to convince you.

    The bulliest of the Apple bulls, Munster, convinced me that channel inventory is part of the sales figure. The rest of the wall street analysts are also reaching the same conclusion.

    The only difference between Munster and Sacconaghi is Munster's unlock rate is 25% and Sacconaghi's unlock rate is 20%. That's it. The only question between the two is whether that channel inventory is excessive or not --- which is very different than you saying channel inventory doesn't exist at all in any of the shipping number figures.

    PS: With T-Mobile announcing only 70000 iphones sold thru Jan 11 (pro-rate to 57000 iphones Dec 31) --- both Munster and Sacconaghi need to re-adjust their numbers of European activations downward. This is Sacconaghi's revised numbers.

  • Reply 64 of 67
    As soon as Apple delivers the iPhone SDK, I'll be getting an iPhone. I want a VOIP iPhone, so I don't need ATT, just a microphone which doesn't come with the iPod Touch. Besides I get a lot more with the iPhone for not much more money especially the camera. Then, I'll have a true WiFi device. Expect there's more than one person who wants this setup.
  • Reply 65 of 67
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

    Think of a Rolex, and a Rolex fake. Think of a iPod nano, and an iPod nano fake. The iPhone and iPhone fake would fall in somewhere in between there. Not sure how to substantiate it, but the "fake" iPhone phenomenon has not quite taken off... Yet.

    Just read it in a Hong Kong magazine --- the counterfeiters are seeing the shortage of TurboSIM as an opportunity to counterfeit TurboSIM's. Prices of copycat TurboSIM are about $250-300 HK each (which is $30-35 US).
  • Reply 66 of 67
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Where Are Those Million iPhones? Everywhere.

    “I was in India a few weeks ago and I saw the iPhone being sold in almost every store.”

    "I am currently in Bangkok on vacation and in one mall alone I must have seen hundreds of unlocked iPhones for sale. On a quick calculation the local vendors are making about $50-100 per unit.”
  • Reply 67 of 67
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,284member

    As of the end of Dec. 2007, there were 547.29 million mobile subscribers in China.

    That number is growing by 1.47 percent each month and by 18.70 percent each year, according to statistics published by China's Ministry of Information Industry on January 31.

    The number of subscribers at the end of December accounted for 41.6 percent of the China's total population.

    As of late 2007, China Mobile's total number of subscribers came in at 332.38 million. That's a little over 60 percent of the country's total mobile subscribers

    Those 332.38 subscribers represent a net increase of 31.15 million (yoy) and an average monthly net addition of over five million.

    For perspective, AT&T announced it added 2.7 million new wireless subscribers during the fourth quarter. That number represents the largest quarterly increase by any U.S. carrier...ever.

    Here in the U.S., there are an estimated 250 million mobile subscribers, according to the latest numbers from the CTIA.

    From wired. So China has twice as many mobiles as the US. Probably twice as many smart phones - which are not that expensive in any case. A man who can afford a sofa or a fridge can afford a smart phone..

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