When has Apple's sales targets been considered "optimistic?" NEVER, at least not since the second coming of the Jobs. They have always been conservative. What is not taken into account is in the next 10 months some announcement about new countries and new products. To believe that these things are not know by the company when they make predictions shows how little this "analyst" knows about business. I wouldn't compare Rim's statement of better then expected sales units while reaffirming the SAME revenue. This clearly means they are selling some Blackberries at or below cost. The only reason to do this? They a clearly threatened by Apple's iPhone!! If I were listening to someone about Apple's business it would be Steve Jobs NOT Toni Sacconaghi. Check and see how many of these "Analysts" buy the stock they slam after it has a correction. Also, check the analysts history the one that consistently comes closest is Gene Munster at Piper Jafferies, and he is not backing away from his 250 price target!!!
1. Without numbers about market growth, how does any of this info mean anything? If RIM's sales grew 15% and the market grew 30%, for example, that wouldn't be good news at all. Anyone know what the growth in this particular market is? Context would be nice.
2. Apple rarely does sales predictions (in fact, I can't recall any such move in their history) so I'm betting that they've got their strategy very carefully mapped out. I bet there are a couple of "worst case scenario" moves up their sleeve. I suspect the price drop shortly after intro was one, as a matter of fact.
3. Why does the article mention RIM's lower cost offerings? I thought the iPhone was considered a competitor in the pricier smart phone market. What am I missing here? What sense does it makes to compare sales of a $99 device to the iPhone? Apple likely makes a whole lot more off the sale of an iPhone compared to the sales of any low-cost competitor's product. (This is not unlike their position in the computer market where they sell fewer machines than most PC makers but make more per sale.)
BTW, I'm not an Apple apologist, but this information seems to have been presented in an attempt to slant things against Apple. Some "analyst" out there have a bone to pick?
A calendar year, by definition, is from January 1 to December 31. You can look it up in your mac dictionary if you don't believe me.
calendar year
noun
see year (sense 2).
year |yi(?)r| |j?(?)r| |j??| |j??|
noun
1 the time taken by a planet to make one revolution around the sun.
2 (also calendar year or civil year) the period of 365 days (or 366 days in leap years) starting from the first of January, used for reckoning time in ordinary affairs.
By this definition, the first "calendar year" in which the iPhone was available was 2007. Does anybody think Jobs was predicting 10,000,000 by the end of 2007? Not everybody has (one particular) dictionary stored in their head, and most people don't assume their readers have (one particular) dictionary stored in their heads. Maybe the interviewer's question was carelessly worded; if that's the case, there's no point in arguing about it. If the question was carefully worded, however, what's more important is what they did not ask. They did not ask: "...in the first year..." because that could be interpreted as "by the end of this year. They did not ask: "in calendar 2008...." That would have meant from 1/1-12/31 2008. One viable interpretation would be that a calendar year means "from this date to the same date next year." I think it's entirely possible that the interviewer meant to ask how many iPhones they planned to sell by June 29, 2008, and Steve Jobs heard "in calendar 2008" and answered that. Interviewers and interviewees talk past each other all the time. All this goes to show is how pointless this whole argument is, as no matter how it turns out, somebody will be able to say it didn't meet its goal. The iPhone is a successful product, but some people just will not allow it to be, so they have to come up with some reason why it's not!
Jobs said they hoped to get 1% market share "in 2008." That 1% market share was roughly equated to 10 million units. Market share is cumulative so the statement should rightly be understood as 10 million units "in use" by the close of 2008.
So logically, that would mean 10 million units "in use" "in 2008." The original 4 million are included.
I actually watched the Keynote on the Apple website, and this is what Stevo said:
"If you just get 1% market share, you are going to sell 10 million phones. And this is exactly what we are going to try and do in 2008, our first full year in the market - is grab 1% of the market and go from there. So we're going to enter a very competitive market - a lot of players - we think we're going to have the best product in the world - and we're going to go for it see if we can get 1% market share, 10 million units in 2008 and go from there."
It was made pretty clear that it was just for 2008 - market share is not the same as installed base, which would be accumilative.
Still not convinced? HEHE - I didn't think so, maybe this will put it over the top:
Apple F1Q07 (Qtr End 12/30/06) Earnings Call Transcript
Good afternoon. First in terms of the iPhone, Steve Jobs talked about 10 million units. Is that for fiscal '08 or calendar '08? Where did that number come from? Maybe just a little bit of logic behind that number.
Tim Cook
Gene, calendar year '08 is what Steve referenced in his keynote. The point that he made was that the worldwide market for total cell phones is somewhere around 1 billion and our objective of getting 1% of it would yield 10 million units across the calendar year.
There is no denying it - 10 million units Calendar 2008 (Jan 1, 2008 > Dec 31, 2008) is their target.
Regardless, I feel this is possible, here is an article on it over at ARS:
By this definition, the first "calendar year" in which the iPhone was available was 2007. Does anybody think Jobs was predicting 10,000,000 by the end of 2007? Not everybody has (one particular) dictionary stored in their head, and most people don't assume their readers have (one particular) dictionary stored in their heads. Maybe the interviewer's question was carelessly worded; if that's the case, there's no point in arguing about it. If the question was carefully worded, however, what's more important is what they did not ask. They did not ask: "...in the first year..." because that could be interpreted as "by the end of this year. They did not ask: "in calendar 2008...." That would have meant from 1/1-12/31 2008. One viable interpretation would be that a calendar year means "from this date to the same date next year." I think it's entirely possible that the interviewer meant to ask how many iPhones they planned to sell by June 29, 2008, and Steve Jobs heard "in calendar 2008" and answered that.
The USA today question was a followup to the keynote, where Jobs said 10M in 2008. If their question was worded wrong, Jobs would have corrected it, saying he meant 10M in the first year of sales, 10M by the end of 2008, 10M mark some time in 2008. But he didn't.
The guy asking the questions is a staff tech columnist for their financial section.
Jobs has participated in probably dozens of conference calls, during which all participants are extremely careful about their wording.
I can't imagine that either of them would be ignorant of what a term as basic as "calendar year" means. And Jobs has made these same comments on at least three or four occasions, even if he screwed it up once he has had multiple opportunities to clarify, yet each time he has reiterated the same thing.
Cool gut, thanks for yet another source clarifying it yet again. I just don't get why people are so insistent on this, regardless of how many direct quotes contradict them.
Dude. I'm removing myself from this thread and heading as we speak to the local zoo. At least one can be more entertained there by the incessant chattering of the chimps than some of meaningless and baseless arguments I see here.
At least chimpscan respond to stimuli instead of repeating nonesense like a drone.
[Dude] Why get so riled up? You're just going to get yourself banned. Everyone is agreeing Apple will ship a boat load of iPhones, now we're just speculating on how big the boat is 'going' to be. No one knows, it is all just an educated guess at this point.
I hope Apple disappoints them all and exeeds the goal. In the end, if Apple only sold 8 million phones that would be huge achievement. The analysts will see it as a failure though
I can't imagine that either of them would be ignorant of what a term as basic as "calendar year" means.
Again, by that definition, the first calendar year for the iPhone was 2007, but nobody thinks they meant that. I didn't listen to the keynote, I have no opinion on what he actually said or meant to say, or what USA Today asked or meant to ask, or when Apple has to sell 10 million phones by to meet which prediction. My only point was one of vocabulary, and that using tortured linguistic analysis to try to make the iPhone less than successful, when people all over the world are paying up to $1000 to have a not-fully-functional example just reveals an anti-Apple bias that there is no point in trying to argue away, because it won't go away.
Jobs said they hoped to get 1% market share "in 2008." That 1% market share was roughly equated to 10 million units. Market share is cumulative so the statement should rightly be understood as 10 million units "in use" by the close of 2008.
So logically, that would mean 10 million units "in use" "in 2008." The original 4 million are included.
Even if you take issue with the semantics, it's pretty clear that if Apple does in fact, hit the 1% market share mark and does have 10 million "in use" by the end of 2008, that they will take credit for hitting their target and no one will significantly argue with them on it. So why argue about it now?
10 million units in a year and a half of sales of a single model is outrageously good news IMO.
Again, by that definition, the first calendar year for the iPhone was 2007, but nobody thinks they meant that. I didn't listen to the keynote, I have no opinion on what he actually said or meant to say, or what USA Today asked or meant to ask, or when Apple has to sell 10 million phones by to meet which prediction.
The USA Today question was a followup to what Jobs said in the keynote:
"If you just get 1% market share, you are going to sell 10 million phones. And this is exactly what we are going to try and do in 2008, our first full year in the market - is grab 1% of the market and go from there. So we're going to enter a very competitive market - a lot of players - we think we're going to have the best product in the world - and we're going to go for it see if we can get 1% market share, 10 million units in 2008 and go from there."
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdotdubz
ditto!
So I guess you missed this...
Quote:
Gene Munster - Piper Jaffray
Good afternoon. First in terms of the iPhone, Steve Jobs talked about 10 million units. Is that for fiscal '08 or calendar '08? Where did that number come from? Maybe just a little bit of logic behind that number.
Tim Cook
Gene, calendar year '08 is what Steve referenced in his keynote. The point that he made was that the worldwide market for total cell phones is somewhere around 1 billion and our objective of getting 1% of it would yield 10 million units across the calendar year.
By this definition, the first "calendar year" in which the iPhone was available was 2007. Does anybody think Jobs was predicting 10,000,000 by the end of 2007? Not everybody has (one particular) dictionary stored in their head, and most people don't assume their readers have (one particular) dictionary stored in their heads. Maybe the interviewer's question was carelessly worded; if that's the case, there's no point in arguing about it. If the question was carefully worded, however, what's more important is what they did not ask. They did not ask: "...in the first year..." because that could be interpreted as "by the end of this year. They did not ask: "in calendar 2008...." That would have meant from 1/1-12/31 2008. One viable interpretation would be that a calendar year means "from this date to the same date next year." I think it's entirely possible that the interviewer meant to ask how many iPhones they planned to sell by June 29, 2008, and Steve Jobs heard "in calendar 2008" and answered that. Interviewers and interviewees talk past each other all the time. All this goes to show is how pointless this whole argument is, as no matter how it turns out, somebody will be able to say it didn't meet its goal. The iPhone is a successful product, but some people just will not allow it to be, so they have to come up with some reason why it's not!
Thank You, people are just looking for ways to call the phone a failure, if why would people be going out of their way to unlock phones that aren't popular. Look how much attention the iphone gets in the media, it was even shown during the grammys, the phone is popular no matter how much some people don't want it to be.
Thank You, people are just looking for ways to call the phone a failure, if why would people be going out of their way to unlock phones that aren't popular. Look how much attention the iphone gets in the media, it was even shown during the grammys, the phone is popular no matter how much some people don't want it to be.
Just in case you missed it - Tim Cook is the Chief Operating Officer at Apple. He stated that 10 million units is for the 2008 calendar year. Apple still believes it can reach this target. No one is doubting that the iPhone is amazing, that it turned the industry on it's head. There are some who are skeptical of Apple's pricing strategy, and that it will interfere with their goal. Recessionary talk will also weight on the iPhone, but one thing is clear - Apple is aiming for 10 million iPhone sales in 2008. Clearly this is a goal and if they miss that target that doesn't mean the iPhone is a peice of shit or a failure.
Needless to say, I agree with you. But if you think some of the posters on this forum won't say just exactly that, you're fooling yourself.
Absolutely. But there will always be people on the extremes who will praise or bash no matter what. Some would call it a hit even if it never sold 100k, and others would call it a flop even if it sold 100M.
Just in case you missed it - Tim Cook is the Chief Operating Officer at Apple. He stated that 10 million units is for the 2008 calendar year. Apple still believes it can reach this target. No one is doubting that the iPhone is amazing, that it turned the industry on it's head. There are some who are skeptical of Apple's pricing strategy, and that it will interfere with their goal. Recessionary talk will also weight on the iPhone, but one thing is clear - Apple is aiming for 10 million iPhone sales in 2008. Clearly this is a goal and if they miss that target that doesn't mean the iPhone is a peice of shit or a failure.
I know that is their target and if they are still sticking by it, they must be confident that they can meet it or exceed it but what's up with all these doomsday talk ?
Nope, that's wrong, and you continue to spread this misinformation.
Jobs's forcast was "10 million IN 2008". Not by the end of 2008. IN.
If you're so sure he said 10 million by the end of 2008, find a direct quote from Jobs. You won't find it.
You're confusing 'in' with 'within' and assuming the boundaries are January 1st, 2008 to December 31st, 2008.
Another way of looking at it...
If someone were to tell you they turn x years old in 2009 would you assume that they somehow aged x-many years within that one year or that they reach that number in that year?
Are you saying all these sites got it wrong? I checked this once and I confirmed to my mind it was "by the end of 2008", but can't find the source now. Maybe I will look again someday.
Are you saying all these sites got it wrong? I checked this once and I confirmed to my mind it was "by the end of 2008", but can't find the source now. Maybe I will look again someday.
Okay, looks good.
Of course, 10 million sold between launch date and the end of 2008 that does not constitute a 1% market share. A 1% market share requires that 1% of every new phone being bought over that time frame must have been an iPhone. They haven't reached that point yet.
So what we've got here is 2 conflicting claims of Apple's sales target - some are claiming that Apple was aiming for a 1% market share, and others are claiming that Apple was aiming for 10 million units sold overall.
Now I'm curious to learn if Apple ever actually made the first claim, about 1% market share goal, at all. And if so, when did they change their story to the 10 million total shipped goal? One does not imply the other.
That is to say, if they exactly meet their goal of 10 million units sold between the initial launch date and the end of 2008, they they will still be about 7.5 million units short of the other goal (a 1% market share over that same time period).
Mind you, they might still hope to have built up to a 1% market share by the time the end of 2008 rolls along, despite having less than 1% of total sales for the entire year. For example, maybe they plan on selling a seasonally adjusted 1.04 million iPhones in the month of December 2008 alone, which would constitute a 1% share of December 2008's seasonally adjusted estimate for the total market of cell phones.
You're confusing 'in' with 'within' and assuming the boundaries are January 1st, 2008 to December 31st, 2008.
I'm not confusing anything.
Gene Munster - Piper Jaffray
Good afternoon. First in terms of the iPhone, Steve Jobs talked about 10 million units. Is that for fiscal '08 or calendar '08? Where did that number come from? Maybe just a little bit of logic behind that number.
Tim Cook
Gene, calendar year '08 is what Steve referenced in his keynote. The point that he made was that the worldwide market for total cell phones is somewhere around 1 billion and our objective of getting 1% of it would yield 10 million units across the calendar year.
I don't see how you could possibly interpret "10 million units across the calendar year" as hitting the 10 million mark during that year.
[QUOTE=BushHater;1220346]
Quote:
Originally Posted by minderbinder
Are you saying all these sites got it wrong? I checked this once and I confirmed to my mind it was "by the end of 2008", but can't find the source now. Maybe I will look again someday.
Yep, I'm saying those sites got it wrong. Neither of them has a direct quote from an apple person, they both just paraphrase, and one is just a blog. Why would those sources be more trustworthy than direct quotes from two apple keynotes and a conference call? It looks like one news source botched this story, and then a bunch of other places just repeated their mistake instead of actually taking a minute to check their facts (AI has done this in the past although thankfully they got it right this time).
Quote:
Originally Posted by lfmorrison
So what we've got here is 2 conflicting claims of Apple's sales target - some are claiming that Apple was aiming for a 1% market share, and others are claiming that Apple was aiming for 10 million units sold overall.
Now I'm curious to learn if Apple ever actually made the first claim, about 1% market share goal, at all. And if so, when did they change their story to the 10 million total shipped goal? One does not imply the other.
Apple didn't claim 1% of installed base, their stated goal was 1% of the 1 billion phones they estimated to be sold in 2008, or selling 10 million in 2008.
Apple didn't claim 1% of installed base, their stated goal was 1% of the 1 billion phones they estimated to be sold in 2008, or selling 10 million in 2008.
Comments
1. Without numbers about market growth, how does any of this info mean anything? If RIM's sales grew 15% and the market grew 30%, for example, that wouldn't be good news at all. Anyone know what the growth in this particular market is? Context would be nice.
2. Apple rarely does sales predictions (in fact, I can't recall any such move in their history) so I'm betting that they've got their strategy very carefully mapped out. I bet there are a couple of "worst case scenario" moves up their sleeve. I suspect the price drop shortly after intro was one, as a matter of fact.
3. Why does the article mention RIM's lower cost offerings? I thought the iPhone was considered a competitor in the pricier smart phone market. What am I missing here? What sense does it makes to compare sales of a $99 device to the iPhone? Apple likely makes a whole lot more off the sale of an iPhone compared to the sales of any low-cost competitor's product. (This is not unlike their position in the computer market where they sell fewer machines than most PC makers but make more per sale.)
BTW, I'm not an Apple apologist, but this information seems to have been presented in an attempt to slant things against Apple. Some "analyst" out there have a bone to pick?
A calendar year, by definition, is from January 1 to December 31. You can look it up in your mac dictionary if you don't believe me.
calendar year
noun
see year (sense 2).
year |yi(?)r| |j?(?)r| |j??| |j??|
noun
1 the time taken by a planet to make one revolution around the sun.
2 (also calendar year or civil year) the period of 365 days (or 366 days in leap years) starting from the first of January, used for reckoning time in ordinary affairs.
By this definition, the first "calendar year" in which the iPhone was available was 2007. Does anybody think Jobs was predicting 10,000,000 by the end of 2007? Not everybody has (one particular) dictionary stored in their head, and most people don't assume their readers have (one particular) dictionary stored in their heads. Maybe the interviewer's question was carelessly worded; if that's the case, there's no point in arguing about it. If the question was carefully worded, however, what's more important is what they did not ask. They did not ask: "...in the first year..." because that could be interpreted as "by the end of this year. They did not ask: "in calendar 2008...." That would have meant from 1/1-12/31 2008. One viable interpretation would be that a calendar year means "from this date to the same date next year." I think it's entirely possible that the interviewer meant to ask how many iPhones they planned to sell by June 29, 2008, and Steve Jobs heard "in calendar 2008" and answered that. Interviewers and interviewees talk past each other all the time. All this goes to show is how pointless this whole argument is, as no matter how it turns out, somebody will be able to say it didn't meet its goal. The iPhone is a successful product, but some people just will not allow it to be, so they have to come up with some reason why it's not!
Actually, no.
Jobs said they hoped to get 1% market share "in 2008." That 1% market share was roughly equated to 10 million units. Market share is cumulative so the statement should rightly be understood as 10 million units "in use" by the close of 2008.
So logically, that would mean 10 million units "in use" "in 2008." The original 4 million are included.
I actually watched the Keynote on the Apple website, and this is what Stevo said:
"If you just get 1% market share, you are going to sell 10 million phones. And this is exactly what we are going to try and do in 2008, our first full year in the market - is grab 1% of the market and go from there. So we're going to enter a very competitive market - a lot of players - we think we're going to have the best product in the world - and we're going to go for it see if we can get 1% market share, 10 million units in 2008 and go from there."
It was made pretty clear that it was just for 2008 - market share is not the same as installed base, which would be accumilative.
Still not convinced? HEHE - I didn't think so, maybe this will put it over the top:
Apple F1Q07 (Qtr End 12/30/06) Earnings Call Transcript
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2443...all-transcript
Gene Munster - Piper Jaffray
Good afternoon. First in terms of the iPhone, Steve Jobs talked about 10 million units. Is that for fiscal '08 or calendar '08? Where did that number come from? Maybe just a little bit of logic behind that number.
Tim Cook
Gene, calendar year '08 is what Steve referenced in his keynote. The point that he made was that the worldwide market for total cell phones is somewhere around 1 billion and our objective of getting 1% of it would yield 10 million units across the calendar year.
There is no denying it - 10 million units Calendar 2008 (Jan 1, 2008 > Dec 31, 2008) is their target.
Regardless, I feel this is possible, here is an article on it over at ARS:
http://arstechnica.com/journals/appl...phones-in-2008
By this definition, the first "calendar year" in which the iPhone was available was 2007. Does anybody think Jobs was predicting 10,000,000 by the end of 2007? Not everybody has (one particular) dictionary stored in their head, and most people don't assume their readers have (one particular) dictionary stored in their heads. Maybe the interviewer's question was carelessly worded; if that's the case, there's no point in arguing about it. If the question was carefully worded, however, what's more important is what they did not ask. They did not ask: "...in the first year..." because that could be interpreted as "by the end of this year. They did not ask: "in calendar 2008...." That would have meant from 1/1-12/31 2008. One viable interpretation would be that a calendar year means "from this date to the same date next year." I think it's entirely possible that the interviewer meant to ask how many iPhones they planned to sell by June 29, 2008, and Steve Jobs heard "in calendar 2008" and answered that.
The USA today question was a followup to the keynote, where Jobs said 10M in 2008. If their question was worded wrong, Jobs would have corrected it, saying he meant 10M in the first year of sales, 10M by the end of 2008, 10M mark some time in 2008. But he didn't.
The guy asking the questions is a staff tech columnist for their financial section.
Jobs has participated in probably dozens of conference calls, during which all participants are extremely careful about their wording.
I can't imagine that either of them would be ignorant of what a term as basic as "calendar year" means. And Jobs has made these same comments on at least three or four occasions, even if he screwed it up once he has had multiple opportunities to clarify, yet each time he has reiterated the same thing.
Cool gut, thanks for yet another source clarifying it yet again. I just don't get why people are so insistent on this, regardless of how many direct quotes contradict them.
Dude. I'm removing myself from this thread and heading as we speak to the local zoo. At least one can be more entertained there by the incessant chattering of the chimps than some of meaningless and baseless arguments I see here.
At least chimpscan respond to stimuli instead of repeating nonesense like a drone.
[Dude] Why get so riled up? You're just going to get yourself banned. Everyone is agreeing Apple will ship a boat load of iPhones, now we're just speculating on how big the boat is 'going' to be. No one knows, it is all just an educated guess at this point.
I can't imagine that either of them would be ignorant of what a term as basic as "calendar year" means.
Again, by that definition, the first calendar year for the iPhone was 2007, but nobody thinks they meant that. I didn't listen to the keynote, I have no opinion on what he actually said or meant to say, or what USA Today asked or meant to ask, or when Apple has to sell 10 million phones by to meet which prediction. My only point was one of vocabulary, and that using tortured linguistic analysis to try to make the iPhone less than successful, when people all over the world are paying up to $1000 to have a not-fully-functional example just reveals an anti-Apple bias that there is no point in trying to argue away, because it won't go away.
Actually, no.
Jobs said they hoped to get 1% market share "in 2008." That 1% market share was roughly equated to 10 million units. Market share is cumulative so the statement should rightly be understood as 10 million units "in use" by the close of 2008.
So logically, that would mean 10 million units "in use" "in 2008." The original 4 million are included.
Even if you take issue with the semantics, it's pretty clear that if Apple does in fact, hit the 1% market share mark and does have 10 million "in use" by the end of 2008, that they will take credit for hitting their target and no one will significantly argue with them on it. So why argue about it now?
10 million units in a year and a half of sales of a single model is outrageously good news IMO.
ditto!
Again, by that definition, the first calendar year for the iPhone was 2007, but nobody thinks they meant that. I didn't listen to the keynote, I have no opinion on what he actually said or meant to say, or what USA Today asked or meant to ask, or when Apple has to sell 10 million phones by to meet which prediction.
The USA Today question was a followup to what Jobs said in the keynote:
"If you just get 1% market share, you are going to sell 10 million phones. And this is exactly what we are going to try and do in 2008, our first full year in the market - is grab 1% of the market and go from there. So we're going to enter a very competitive market - a lot of players - we think we're going to have the best product in the world - and we're going to go for it see if we can get 1% market share, 10 million units in 2008 and go from there."
ditto!
So I guess you missed this...
Gene Munster - Piper Jaffray
Good afternoon. First in terms of the iPhone, Steve Jobs talked about 10 million units. Is that for fiscal '08 or calendar '08? Where did that number come from? Maybe just a little bit of logic behind that number.
Tim Cook
Gene, calendar year '08 is what Steve referenced in his keynote. The point that he made was that the worldwide market for total cell phones is somewhere around 1 billion and our objective of getting 1% of it would yield 10 million units across the calendar year.
By this definition, the first "calendar year" in which the iPhone was available was 2007. Does anybody think Jobs was predicting 10,000,000 by the end of 2007? Not everybody has (one particular) dictionary stored in their head, and most people don't assume their readers have (one particular) dictionary stored in their heads. Maybe the interviewer's question was carelessly worded; if that's the case, there's no point in arguing about it. If the question was carefully worded, however, what's more important is what they did not ask. They did not ask: "...in the first year..." because that could be interpreted as "by the end of this year. They did not ask: "in calendar 2008...." That would have meant from 1/1-12/31 2008. One viable interpretation would be that a calendar year means "from this date to the same date next year." I think it's entirely possible that the interviewer meant to ask how many iPhones they planned to sell by June 29, 2008, and Steve Jobs heard "in calendar 2008" and answered that. Interviewers and interviewees talk past each other all the time. All this goes to show is how pointless this whole argument is, as no matter how it turns out, somebody will be able to say it didn't meet its goal. The iPhone is a successful product, but some people just will not allow it to be, so they have to come up with some reason why it's not!
Thank You, people are just looking for ways to call the phone a failure, if why would people be going out of their way to unlock phones that aren't popular. Look how much attention the iphone gets in the media, it was even shown during the grammys, the phone is popular no matter how much some people don't want it to be.
Thank You, people are just looking for ways to call the phone a failure, if why would people be going out of their way to unlock phones that aren't popular. Look how much attention the iphone gets in the media, it was even shown during the grammys, the phone is popular no matter how much some people don't want it to be.
Just in case you missed it - Tim Cook is the Chief Operating Officer at Apple. He stated that 10 million units is for the 2008 calendar year. Apple still believes it can reach this target. No one is doubting that the iPhone is amazing, that it turned the industry on it's head. There are some who are skeptical of Apple's pricing strategy, and that it will interfere with their goal. Recessionary talk will also weight on the iPhone, but one thing is clear - Apple is aiming for 10 million iPhone sales in 2008. Clearly this is a goal and if they miss that target that doesn't mean the iPhone is a peice of shit or a failure.
Clearly this is a goal and if they miss that target that doesn't mean the iPhone is a peice of shit or a failure.
Needless to say, I agree with you. But if you think some of the posters on this forum won't say just exactly that, you're fooling yourself.
Needless to say, I agree with you. But if you think some of the posters on this forum won't say just exactly that, you're fooling yourself.
Absolutely. But there will always be people on the extremes who will praise or bash no matter what. Some would call it a hit even if it never sold 100k, and others would call it a flop even if it sold 100M.
Just in case you missed it - Tim Cook is the Chief Operating Officer at Apple. He stated that 10 million units is for the 2008 calendar year. Apple still believes it can reach this target. No one is doubting that the iPhone is amazing, that it turned the industry on it's head. There are some who are skeptical of Apple's pricing strategy, and that it will interfere with their goal. Recessionary talk will also weight on the iPhone, but one thing is clear - Apple is aiming for 10 million iPhone sales in 2008. Clearly this is a goal and if they miss that target that doesn't mean the iPhone is a peice of shit or a failure.
I know that is their target and if they are still sticking by it, they must be confident that they can meet it or exceed it but what's up with all these doomsday talk ?
Nope, that's wrong, and you continue to spread this misinformation.
Jobs's forcast was "10 million IN 2008". Not by the end of 2008. IN.
If you're so sure he said 10 million by the end of 2008, find a direct quote from Jobs. You won't find it.
You're confusing 'in' with 'within' and assuming the boundaries are January 1st, 2008 to December 31st, 2008.
Another way of looking at it...
If someone were to tell you they turn x years old in 2009 would you assume that they somehow aged x-many years within that one year or that they reach that number in that year?
There's a screenshot from the keynote, plus links to two videos of the keynote with the times where jobs says "10M in 2008".
Please look at these - are you saying I'm hearing wrong and he says "by the end of"?
So that's three sources direct from Jobs.
Here's another:
"Q: Do you still think you'll sell 10 million iPhones in the first calendar year ? or will it be more?
Oh and another two.
"Apple's self set goal is 10 million by the end of 2008."
http://apple-iphone-world.blogspot.c...years-end.html
"Apple "remains very confident" that they will ship 10 million handsets by the end of 2008 as originally stated"
http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/24/a...-probably-not/
Are you saying all these sites got it wrong? I checked this once and I confirmed to my mind it was "by the end of 2008", but can't find the source now. Maybe I will look again someday.
Did you even read the rest of this thread?
There's a screenshot from the keynote, plus links to two videos of the keynote with the times where jobs says "10M in 2008".
Please look at these - are you saying I'm hearing wrong and he says "by the end of"?
So that's three sources direct from Jobs.
Here's another:
"Q: Do you still think you'll sell 10 million iPhones in the first calendar year — or will it be more?
Oh and another two.
"Apple's self set goal is 10 million by the end of 2008."
http://apple-iphone-world.blogspot.c...years-end.html
"Apple "remains very confident" that they will ship 10 million handsets by the end of 2008 as originally stated"
http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/24/a...-probably-not/
Are you saying all these sites got it wrong? I checked this once and I confirmed to my mind it was "by the end of 2008", but can't find the source now. Maybe I will look again someday.
Okay, looks good.
Of course, 10 million sold between launch date and the end of 2008 that does not constitute a 1% market share. A 1% market share requires that 1% of every new phone being bought over that time frame must have been an iPhone. They haven't reached that point yet.
So what we've got here is 2 conflicting claims of Apple's sales target - some are claiming that Apple was aiming for a 1% market share, and others are claiming that Apple was aiming for 10 million units sold overall.
Now I'm curious to learn if Apple ever actually made the first claim, about 1% market share goal, at all. And if so, when did they change their story to the 10 million total shipped goal? One does not imply the other.
That is to say, if they exactly meet their goal of 10 million units sold between the initial launch date and the end of 2008, they they will still be about 7.5 million units short of the other goal (a 1% market share over that same time period).
Mind you, they might still hope to have built up to a 1% market share by the time the end of 2008 rolls along, despite having less than 1% of total sales for the entire year. For example, maybe they plan on selling a seasonally adjusted 1.04 million iPhones in the month of December 2008 alone, which would constitute a 1% share of December 2008's seasonally adjusted estimate for the total market of cell phones.
You're confusing 'in' with 'within' and assuming the boundaries are January 1st, 2008 to December 31st, 2008.
I'm not confusing anything.
Gene Munster - Piper Jaffray
Good afternoon. First in terms of the iPhone, Steve Jobs talked about 10 million units. Is that for fiscal '08 or calendar '08? Where did that number come from? Maybe just a little bit of logic behind that number.
Tim Cook
Gene, calendar year '08 is what Steve referenced in his keynote. The point that he made was that the worldwide market for total cell phones is somewhere around 1 billion and our objective of getting 1% of it would yield 10 million units across the calendar year.
I don't see how you could possibly interpret "10 million units across the calendar year" as hitting the 10 million mark during that year.
[QUOTE=BushHater;1220346]
Are you saying all these sites got it wrong? I checked this once and I confirmed to my mind it was "by the end of 2008", but can't find the source now. Maybe I will look again someday.
Yep, I'm saying those sites got it wrong. Neither of them has a direct quote from an apple person, they both just paraphrase, and one is just a blog. Why would those sources be more trustworthy than direct quotes from two apple keynotes and a conference call? It looks like one news source botched this story, and then a bunch of other places just repeated their mistake instead of actually taking a minute to check their facts (AI has done this in the past although thankfully they got it right this time).
So what we've got here is 2 conflicting claims of Apple's sales target - some are claiming that Apple was aiming for a 1% market share, and others are claiming that Apple was aiming for 10 million units sold overall.
Now I'm curious to learn if Apple ever actually made the first claim, about 1% market share goal, at all. And if so, when did they change their story to the 10 million total shipped goal? One does not imply the other.
Apple didn't claim 1% of installed base, their stated goal was 1% of the 1 billion phones they estimated to be sold in 2008, or selling 10 million in 2008.
You can see it here, start about 3.5 minutes in.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=D-X_nLCz6Hc&feature=related
Apple didn't claim 1% of installed base, their stated goal was 1% of the 1 billion phones they estimated to be sold in 2008, or selling 10 million in 2008.
You can see it here, start about 3.5 minutes in.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=D-X_nLCz6Hc&feature=related
Except that the 1 billion cell phone numbers come from 2006.
Last year, the worldwide market for cell phone grew to 1.1 billion units. And this year, it will be about 1.2 to 1.25 billion units.