We have to see how this relates to the overall digital player market. If all sales are flat, or down, then it is almost entirely due to the economic turndown. If so, then it isn't too bad. but if it's Apple's sales that are flat, or down, and other's sales are not, then it's a big problem.
Units will be down, revenue will be up, and the market will not care. First it won't care because the iPhone steals sales from iPods, and secondly because the good news about Mac sales will trounce it, and finally because sales of high priced Touch models bringing ASPs up will please everyone. The news that units are not growing quickly is already priced into the stock, as it came out last quarter.
I agree, Mac YOY numbers look great... As an investor I would much rather see better YOY numbers for the Mac than the iPod anyday.. For some reason, investors don't see it that way..
Look at last quarter for example.. Record quarter, record revenue, record profit, record Mac sales, even record iPod sales.. Still the stock slumped because iPod growth showed signs of slowing and didn't meet expectations..
At some point, investors are going to have to realize that the Mac and iPhone are Apple's new growth drivers and will far overcompensate for any decline in iPod growth..
That's exactly why no one will be disappointed at the iPod news this quarter.
No, that doesn't answer the question. Retail means a lot of things. At one time, they didn't include sales from Apple's stores. Then they did. It's not as straightforwards as you may think.
And, as you say, what do they mean by PC? Are they including PC based servers? Sometimes they do.
And to answer your question...
You'll never know what all the numbers mean. All you can know is that they are comparable year over year (one would hope), and that they clearly show absurd growth.
The day that Mac OS X reaches 25% market share, Windows will be history in three years. The only thing keeping the horrible Windows alive is inertia and ignorance.
I'll have to alert all my clients who can't afford an $800 PC, much less a $1200 one...
That's exactly why no one will be disappointed at the iPod news this quarter.
Well, I hope you're right.. But I'm not so sure... Macs had an explosive quarter last quarter, and even if iPods didn't meet everyones expectations it still showed slight YOY growth.. This may be the first quarter since 2001 where YOY iPod growth may be flat or even show a slight decline..
Mac growth has been on the rise for several years now, most analysts haven't said or cared much about it.. It seems that in general, analysts seem to view Apple as a one trick pony, or as the "iPod maker."
Well, we'll have two iPods, the shuffle and the Touch once the SDK is released and software starts to flow.
Hmm, wonder if i can get a Back to my Mac function using the Touch or Phone, then my music will be changeable anytime! No need for HUGE storage.
The shuffle due to its design will be here for some time. I use my clip on for music and my iPhone for internet. Call comes in, i just switch the cable over LOL
Mac sales will be big even with the SDK being released as all those wanting to develop will have to buy Intel powered Macs and iPhones. So a surge should come from developers buying.
Then with all the cool software, including games, how can you live without it? Having so much information in your pocket will be Apple's greatest achievement. It will, in fact, be the NEXT Step.
Well, I hope you're right.. But I'm not so sure... Macs had an explosive quarter last quarter, and even if iPods didn't meet everyones expectations it still showed slight YOY growth.. This may be the first quarter since 2001 where YOY iPod growth may be flat or even show a slight decline..
Mac growth has been on the rise for several years now, most analysts haven't said or cared much about it.. It seems that in general, analysts seem to view Apple as a one trick pony, or as the "iPod maker."
Analysts don't matter, they don't buy and sell stocks. Just look at the guys now saying they have price targets of $250 for proof. People like to blame analysts but besides being a waste of space, they don't move stocks over more than a couple day time frame. If Apple's earnings rock, the stock will go up.
Analysts don't matter, they don't buy and sell stocks. Just look at the guys now saying they have price targets of $250 for proof. People like to blame analysts but besides being a waste of space, they don't move stocks over more than a couple day time frame. If Apple's earnings rock, the stock will go up.
Sorry, I have to disagree., it's much more than just earnings.. Last quarter is a prime example. Earnings "rocked," it was a record quarter in EVERY sense. Look what happened, Wall Street analysts didn't look at the overall picture, they looked at one segment, the iPod. And yes, some analysts, still hold price targets in the $250 range, but they are a minority , Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, Shaw Wu, they are Apple supporters.. The majority have dropped their 12 month outlook into the sub $150 range.
Sorry, I have to disagree., it's much more than just earnings.. Last quarter is a prime example. Earnings "rocked," it was a record quarter in EVERY sense. Look what happened, Wall Street analysts didn't look at the overall picture, they looked at one segment, the iPod. And yes, some analysts, still hold price targets in the $250 range, but they are a minority , Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, Shaw Wu, they are Apple supporters.. The majority have dropped their 12 month outlook into the sub $150 range.
The fact is, analysts don't keep buyers from buying an undervalued stock. Right now the market is scared that Apple's earnings growth will slow as the economy slows. We don't think that will happen, but the market is made up of the collective opinions of millions of people, and that collective wisdom is pretty smart as long as things follow historical patterns.
What Apple bulls (myself included) are banking on is that Apple's earnings will go against historical patterns. A high end consumer electronics maker (IE a maker luxury consumer discretionaries) would typically struggle greatly to grow in this kind of economy. When it becomes clear that that's not the case, the market will buy into Apple no matter what any individual says.
The worship of analysts' power smacks of religion - you blame the invincible gods when they seem to influence events, but most of the time analysts simply put their finger to the wind and "report" what is already happening.
Sorry, I have to disagree., it's much more than just earnings.. Last quarter is a prime example. Earnings "rocked," it was a record quarter in EVERY sense. Look what happened, Wall Street analysts didn't look at the overall picture, they looked at one segment, the iPod. And yes, some analysts, still hold price targets in the $250 range, but they are a minority , Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, Shaw Wu, they are Apple supporters.. The majority have dropped their 12 month outlook into the sub $150 range.
I believe at one point Piper Jaffray late last year was predicting 500.00 a share. Guess that call was wrong. Doesn't matter at this point how Apple does they are going to be pulled down by the overall economy and the steady drop in the Nasdaq.
The fact is, analysts don't keep buyers from buying an undervalued stock. Right now the market is scared that Apple's earnings growth will slow as the economy slows. We don't think that will happen, but the market is made up of the collective opinions of millions of people, and that collective wisdom is pretty smart as long as things follow historical patterns.
What Apple bulls (myself included) are banking on is that Apple's earnings will go against historical patterns. A high end consumer electronics maker (IE a maker luxury consumer discretionaries) would typically struggle greatly to grow in this kind of economy. When it becomes clear that that's not the case, the market will buy into Apple no matter what any individual says.
The worship of analysts' power smacks of religion - you blame the invincible gods when they seem to influence events, but most of the time analysts simply put their finger to the wind and "report" what is already happening.
A 73 point loss in three months isn't exactly something to be bullish about. Even more so as the US economy gets worse. Apple does not fall under the catagory of a luxury cosumer company or product. Just because they rip you off on hardware doesn't mean they are a luxury product.
The fact is, analysts don't keep buyers from buying an undervalued stock. Right now the market is scared that Apple's earnings growth will slow as the economy slows. We don't think that will happen, but the market is made up of the collective opinions of millions of people, and that collective wisdom is pretty smart as long as things follow historical patterns.
What Apple bulls (myself included) are banking on is that Apple's earnings will go against historical patterns. A high end consumer electronics maker (IE a maker luxury consumer discretionaries) would typically struggle greatly to grow in this kind of economy. When it becomes clear that that's not the case, the market will buy into Apple no matter what any individual says.
The worship of analysts' power smacks of religion - you blame the invincible gods when they seem to influence events, but most of the time analysts simply put their finger to the wind and "report" what is already happening.
Well, like I said, I hope you're right. It seems we both agree on Apple's ability to perform. I however, am very skeptical about Wall Street's ability to comprehend that performance now that the iPod is no longer growing at 200%, 300%, and 400%.
So many things about what Apple is doing is greatly overlooked by Wall Street... Even for the past 4 years while the stock was riding high, the reports about why it was riding high were for the most part, all wrong.. As you said, "analysts simply put their finger to the wind and report what is already happening." Well, what's happening now is no longer as obvious as it once was. It's a multi-year strategy with the Mac and iPhone.
A 73 point loss in three months isn't exactly something to be bullish about. Even more so as the US economy gets worse.
It all depends on what you're looking at.. If you're looking at Apple's actual performance and actual results (as you should,) then yes, there is plenty to be bullish about..
However, if you're looking at what the analysts are saying and how the market is reacting, then no, there's no much to be bullish about, which is exactly my point..
I have no doubt that Apple is going to continue to perform well a a company. However, I do have doubt that Wall street is going to react accordingly.
Well, like I said, I hope you're right. It seems we both agree on Apple's ability to perform. I however, am very skeptical about Wall Street's ability to comprehend that performance now that the iPod is no longer growing at 200%, 300%, and 400%.
So many things about what Apple is doing is greatly overlooked by Wall Street... Even for the past 4 years while the stock was riding high, the reports about why it was riding high were for the most part, all wrong.. As you said, "analysts simply put their finger to the wind and report what is already happening." Well, what's happening now is no longer as obvious as it once was. It's a multi-year strategy with the Mac and iPhone.
Try being a (former) AMD investor. It takes a while (for good reason) for Wall Street to correct a company's valuation when it goes from perennial also-ran to competitor. Apple is still a tiny company in the overall PC market but that is changing. AMD did the same thing - had a brief period of stock success and then it fell back. Then came Opteron and AMD got a bigger run. So the question is, does Apple make it past the Barcelona debacle and grow again, and I think so.
some analysts, still hold price targets in the $250 range, but they are a minority , Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, Shaw Wu, they are Apple supporters.. The majority have dropped their 12 month outlook into the sub $150 range.
The best current numbers I can find puts the median estimate at 180ish. I dont think its fair to say the majority or anything close to the majority is handicapping at sub $150.
I am bullish on the stock in general but I see two scenarios.
1. Economy recovers(ish), Apple has some breakthrough numbers in Apr. Announces 3G in June as well as 2 or 3 major new markets...stock would bounce to the 180s by July in that scenario. Justice is served
2. Economy stays stuck on stupid, inflation tears the hearts out of the American consumers pocketbook, the Tax rebate props up Apple for a quarter but... 100 a share is likely if the missed iPod numbers continue to fester under the skin of skittish investors.
Whats killin me is the lethargy behind the AppleTV product. I have one and love it, but cant dump Netflix until they get at least twice the rental content they have (and they really seem to be slowing down in the last two weeks). As an investor it pisses me off because this could be a nice revenue stream but they refuse to advertise it and seemed to have either duped us in terms of promised content, or been duped by the movie studios. Either way, bad mojo.
Apple is still a tiny company in the overall PC market but that is changing.
Hmm. I'm not sure that "tiny" is the right word.. Market-share is still small compared to the leaders. But if you look at annual revenue.. Apple is 3rd, behind HP and Dell (that's counting PC manufacturers, not Microsoft.)
The best current numbers I can find puts the median estimate at 180ish. I dont think its fair to say the majority or anything close to the majority is handicapping at sub $150.
Whats killin me is the lethargy behind the AppleTV product. I have one and love it, but cant dump Netflix until they get at least twice the rental content they have (and they really seem to be slowing down in the last two weeks). As an investor it pisses me off because this could be a nice revenue stream but they refuse to advertise it and seemed to have either duped us in terms of promised content, or been duped by the movie studios. Either way, bad mojo.
Okay, you're right.. Saying sub $150 isn't fair.. The median is around 180.. The majority are around 150-160, the top estimates (which are a few) are pulling the average up.
I agree about Apple TV.. I have one and love it too. Surprisingly, the past week has been good for new content additions.. If you haven't already, check out the below site.. They keep a daily running tally of all HD content, which for me, is all I'm interested in renting.. They were stuck with only about 100 HD rentals for the first three weeks, but there have been about 50 new HD releases in the past week or so..
At some point, investors are going to have to realize that the Mac and iPhone are Apple's new growth drivers and will far overcompensate for any decline in iPod growth..
Totally agree, Mac and the Apple mobile platform: iPhone, Touch and things, yet unseen!
Comments
We have to see how this relates to the overall digital player market. If all sales are flat, or down, then it is almost entirely due to the economic turndown. If so, then it isn't too bad. but if it's Apple's sales that are flat, or down, and other's sales are not, then it's a big problem.
Units will be down, revenue will be up, and the market will not care. First it won't care because the iPhone steals sales from iPods, and secondly because the good news about Mac sales will trounce it, and finally because sales of high priced Touch models bringing ASPs up will please everyone. The news that units are not growing quickly is already priced into the stock, as it came out last quarter.
I agree, Mac YOY numbers look great... As an investor I would much rather see better YOY numbers for the Mac than the iPod anyday.. For some reason, investors don't see it that way..
Look at last quarter for example.. Record quarter, record revenue, record profit, record Mac sales, even record iPod sales.. Still the stock slumped because iPod growth showed signs of slowing and didn't meet expectations..
At some point, investors are going to have to realize that the Mac and iPhone are Apple's new growth drivers and will far overcompensate for any decline in iPod growth..
That's exactly why no one will be disappointed at the iPod news this quarter.
No, that doesn't answer the question. Retail means a lot of things. At one time, they didn't include sales from Apple's stores. Then they did. It's not as straightforwards as you may think.
And, as you say, what do they mean by PC? Are they including PC based servers? Sometimes they do.
And to answer your question...
You'll never know what all the numbers mean. All you can know is that they are comparable year over year (one would hope), and that they clearly show absurd growth.
The day that Mac OS X reaches 25% market share, Windows will be history in three years. The only thing keeping the horrible Windows alive is inertia and ignorance.
I'll have to alert all my clients who can't afford an $800 PC, much less a $1200 one...
Didn't Mac go bankrupt after Microsoft bailed them out a few years ago?
Who is Mac?
That's exactly why no one will be disappointed at the iPod news this quarter.
Well, I hope you're right.. But I'm not so sure... Macs had an explosive quarter last quarter, and even if iPods didn't meet everyones expectations it still showed slight YOY growth.. This may be the first quarter since 2001 where YOY iPod growth may be flat or even show a slight decline..
Mac growth has been on the rise for several years now, most analysts haven't said or cared much about it.. It seems that in general, analysts seem to view Apple as a one trick pony, or as the "iPod maker."
Hmm, wonder if i can get a Back to my Mac function using the Touch or Phone, then my music will be changeable anytime! No need for HUGE storage.
The shuffle due to its design will be here for some time. I use my clip on for music and my iPhone for internet. Call comes in, i just switch the cable over LOL
Mac sales will be big even with the SDK being released as all those wanting to develop will have to buy Intel powered Macs and iPhones. So a surge should come from developers buying.
Then with all the cool software, including games, how can you live without it? Having so much information in your pocket will be Apple's greatest achievement. It will, in fact, be the NEXT Step.
Well, I hope you're right.. But I'm not so sure... Macs had an explosive quarter last quarter, and even if iPods didn't meet everyones expectations it still showed slight YOY growth.. This may be the first quarter since 2001 where YOY iPod growth may be flat or even show a slight decline..
Mac growth has been on the rise for several years now, most analysts haven't said or cared much about it.. It seems that in general, analysts seem to view Apple as a one trick pony, or as the "iPod maker."
Analysts don't matter, they don't buy and sell stocks. Just look at the guys now saying they have price targets of $250 for proof. People like to blame analysts but besides being a waste of space, they don't move stocks over more than a couple day time frame. If Apple's earnings rock, the stock will go up.
Analysts don't matter, they don't buy and sell stocks. Just look at the guys now saying they have price targets of $250 for proof. People like to blame analysts but besides being a waste of space, they don't move stocks over more than a couple day time frame. If Apple's earnings rock, the stock will go up.
Sorry, I have to disagree., it's much more than just earnings.. Last quarter is a prime example. Earnings "rocked," it was a record quarter in EVERY sense. Look what happened, Wall Street analysts didn't look at the overall picture, they looked at one segment, the iPod. And yes, some analysts, still hold price targets in the $250 range, but they are a minority , Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, Shaw Wu, they are Apple supporters.. The majority have dropped their 12 month outlook into the sub $150 range.
Analysts don't matter, they don't buy and sell stocks.
I wish it were true, but it's not.
Sorry, I have to disagree., it's much more than just earnings.. Last quarter is a prime example. Earnings "rocked," it was a record quarter in EVERY sense. Look what happened, Wall Street analysts didn't look at the overall picture, they looked at one segment, the iPod. And yes, some analysts, still hold price targets in the $250 range, but they are a minority , Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, Shaw Wu, they are Apple supporters.. The majority have dropped their 12 month outlook into the sub $150 range.
The fact is, analysts don't keep buyers from buying an undervalued stock. Right now the market is scared that Apple's earnings growth will slow as the economy slows. We don't think that will happen, but the market is made up of the collective opinions of millions of people, and that collective wisdom is pretty smart as long as things follow historical patterns.
What Apple bulls (myself included) are banking on is that Apple's earnings will go against historical patterns. A high end consumer electronics maker (IE a maker luxury consumer discretionaries) would typically struggle greatly to grow in this kind of economy. When it becomes clear that that's not the case, the market will buy into Apple no matter what any individual says.
The worship of analysts' power smacks of religion - you blame the invincible gods when they seem to influence events, but most of the time analysts simply put their finger to the wind and "report" what is already happening.
Sorry, I have to disagree., it's much more than just earnings.. Last quarter is a prime example. Earnings "rocked," it was a record quarter in EVERY sense. Look what happened, Wall Street analysts didn't look at the overall picture, they looked at one segment, the iPod. And yes, some analysts, still hold price targets in the $250 range, but they are a minority , Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, Shaw Wu, they are Apple supporters.. The majority have dropped their 12 month outlook into the sub $150 range.
I believe at one point Piper Jaffray late last year was predicting 500.00 a share. Guess that call was wrong. Doesn't matter at this point how Apple does they are going to be pulled down by the overall economy and the steady drop in the Nasdaq.
The fact is, analysts don't keep buyers from buying an undervalued stock. Right now the market is scared that Apple's earnings growth will slow as the economy slows. We don't think that will happen, but the market is made up of the collective opinions of millions of people, and that collective wisdom is pretty smart as long as things follow historical patterns.
What Apple bulls (myself included) are banking on is that Apple's earnings will go against historical patterns. A high end consumer electronics maker (IE a maker luxury consumer discretionaries) would typically struggle greatly to grow in this kind of economy. When it becomes clear that that's not the case, the market will buy into Apple no matter what any individual says.
The worship of analysts' power smacks of religion - you blame the invincible gods when they seem to influence events, but most of the time analysts simply put their finger to the wind and "report" what is already happening.
A 73 point loss in three months isn't exactly something to be bullish about. Even more so as the US economy gets worse. Apple does not fall under the catagory of a luxury cosumer company or product. Just because they rip you off on hardware doesn't mean they are a luxury product.
The fact is, analysts don't keep buyers from buying an undervalued stock. Right now the market is scared that Apple's earnings growth will slow as the economy slows. We don't think that will happen, but the market is made up of the collective opinions of millions of people, and that collective wisdom is pretty smart as long as things follow historical patterns.
What Apple bulls (myself included) are banking on is that Apple's earnings will go against historical patterns. A high end consumer electronics maker (IE a maker luxury consumer discretionaries) would typically struggle greatly to grow in this kind of economy. When it becomes clear that that's not the case, the market will buy into Apple no matter what any individual says.
The worship of analysts' power smacks of religion - you blame the invincible gods when they seem to influence events, but most of the time analysts simply put their finger to the wind and "report" what is already happening.
Well, like I said, I hope you're right. It seems we both agree on Apple's ability to perform. I however, am very skeptical about Wall Street's ability to comprehend that performance now that the iPod is no longer growing at 200%, 300%, and 400%.
So many things about what Apple is doing is greatly overlooked by Wall Street... Even for the past 4 years while the stock was riding high, the reports about why it was riding high were for the most part, all wrong.. As you said, "analysts simply put their finger to the wind and report what is already happening." Well, what's happening now is no longer as obvious as it once was. It's a multi-year strategy with the Mac and iPhone.
A 73 point loss in three months isn't exactly something to be bullish about. Even more so as the US economy gets worse.
It all depends on what you're looking at.. If you're looking at Apple's actual performance and actual results (as you should,) then yes, there is plenty to be bullish about..
However, if you're looking at what the analysts are saying and how the market is reacting, then no, there's no much to be bullish about, which is exactly my point..
I have no doubt that Apple is going to continue to perform well a a company. However, I do have doubt that Wall street is going to react accordingly.
Well, like I said, I hope you're right. It seems we both agree on Apple's ability to perform. I however, am very skeptical about Wall Street's ability to comprehend that performance now that the iPod is no longer growing at 200%, 300%, and 400%.
So many things about what Apple is doing is greatly overlooked by Wall Street... Even for the past 4 years while the stock was riding high, the reports about why it was riding high were for the most part, all wrong.. As you said, "analysts simply put their finger to the wind and report what is already happening." Well, what's happening now is no longer as obvious as it once was. It's a multi-year strategy with the Mac and iPhone.
Try being a (former) AMD investor. It takes a while (for good reason) for Wall Street to correct a company's valuation when it goes from perennial also-ran to competitor. Apple is still a tiny company in the overall PC market but that is changing. AMD did the same thing - had a brief period of stock success and then it fell back. Then came Opteron and AMD got a bigger run. So the question is, does Apple make it past the Barcelona debacle and grow again, and I think so.
some analysts, still hold price targets in the $250 range, but they are a minority , Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, Shaw Wu, they are Apple supporters.. The majority have dropped their 12 month outlook into the sub $150 range.
The best current numbers I can find puts the median estimate at 180ish. I dont think its fair to say the majority or anything close to the majority is handicapping at sub $150.
I am bullish on the stock in general but I see two scenarios.
1. Economy recovers(ish), Apple has some breakthrough numbers in Apr. Announces 3G in June as well as 2 or 3 major new markets...stock would bounce to the 180s by July in that scenario. Justice is served
2. Economy stays stuck on stupid, inflation tears the hearts out of the American consumers pocketbook, the Tax rebate props up Apple for a quarter but... 100 a share is likely if the missed iPod numbers continue to fester under the skin of skittish investors.
Whats killin me is the lethargy behind the AppleTV product. I have one and love it, but cant dump Netflix until they get at least twice the rental content they have (and they really seem to be slowing down in the last two weeks). As an investor it pisses me off because this could be a nice revenue stream but they refuse to advertise it and seemed to have either duped us in terms of promised content, or been duped by the movie studios. Either way, bad mojo.
Apple is still a tiny company in the overall PC market but that is changing.
Hmm. I'm not sure that "tiny" is the right word.. Market-share is still small compared to the leaders. But if you look at annual revenue.. Apple is 3rd, behind HP and Dell (that's counting PC manufacturers, not Microsoft.)
The best current numbers I can find puts the median estimate at 180ish. I dont think its fair to say the majority or anything close to the majority is handicapping at sub $150.
Whats killin me is the lethargy behind the AppleTV product. I have one and love it, but cant dump Netflix until they get at least twice the rental content they have (and they really seem to be slowing down in the last two weeks). As an investor it pisses me off because this could be a nice revenue stream but they refuse to advertise it and seemed to have either duped us in terms of promised content, or been duped by the movie studios. Either way, bad mojo.
Okay, you're right.. Saying sub $150 isn't fair.. The median is around 180.. The majority are around 150-160, the top estimates (which are a few) are pulling the average up.
I agree about Apple TV.. I have one and love it too. Surprisingly, the past week has been good for new content additions.. If you haven't already, check out the below site.. They keep a daily running tally of all HD content, which for me, is all I'm interested in renting.. They were stuck with only about 100 HD rentals for the first three weeks, but there have been about 50 new HD releases in the past week or so..
www.appletvjunkie.com
At some point, investors are going to have to realize that the Mac and iPhone are Apple's new growth drivers and will far overcompensate for any decline in iPod growth..
Totally agree, Mac and the Apple mobile platform: iPhone, Touch and things, yet unseen!