Let's understand something here. *IN* the calender year means the same thing as by the *END* of the year, calender, or otherwise.
Apple may say *in* because they hope it will be before the *end* of the year. But they aren't saying *middle* or other part of the year either, because they don't know if that will be correct.
*IN* means anytime during, including the last day.
No it does not Mel.
"In 2008" means the calendar year 2008.
"By the end of 2008" has a clear end date, but no clear start date.
Thus it's important to analyze the rest of the statement.
"Apple will have sold 40 million Macs by the end of 2008" means Jan. 24, 1984 - Dec. 31, 2008.
"Apple will sell 5 million Macs by the end of 2008", means today until Dec. 31, 2008.
Neither means Jan. 1 - Dec. 31 unless today is January 1.
I agree with you that Apple has always intended to sell 10 million iPhones during the calendar year 2008.
Thank you for the good background. But are you saying OLED is something you think we might see mid to late 2008? Or do you think the problem with unproven lifespan of larger constantly reconfiguring OLED screens and the current high cost will mean it is something to look forward to a couple of years down the line?
I really don't know what Apple is thinking along these lines. I don't believe that lifetime or price is a big issue.
The problem is getting the screen in the size Apple needs, with the resolution it needs. If no screens are being made that are suitable, Apple would have to convince a manufacturer to design one for them. I don't know the likelihood of that. Even if one agrees, and I suppose one would, it would take time. I don't know Apple's priorities on this.
Quote:
And also thanks for clearing up the LED/OLED confusion. In addition Wikipedia has a good page on this. It says 14,000 hours lifespan compared to 60,000 hours for traditional LED/LCD technology and it mentions a newer experimental version claiming 198,000 hours. Would be great to see Apple champion this superior tech and drive the 'economies of scale' process.
20,000 hours is considered to be the useful lifetime for a consumer product. My Samsung rear projection DLP uses LEDs for the light engine, and they are rated at 20,000 hours (they are not OLEDS). That's 6 hours a day for 9 years (their rating).
198,000 hours is unrealistic, as no consumer product, and few commercial or military ones, would be used for that long. The other question is just how they are rated.
LEDs (and OLEDs) are normally rated for a one stop drop in output (50%). So, a panel with a 20,000 hour lifetime simply means that the output has dropped by half. Some are more strictly rated at a 25% drop, so one must know this in order to compare one product with another.
Also, if the panel is brighter than needed, as is often the case, then the brightness will be turned down. This leads to two results. The first is that the liftime is at rating. That is, the highest brightness within the voltage/current/temp rating. If you turn it down by half, not unusual, then you merely turn it up over time, which extends its lifetine in a practical sense.
Two is that if you have it turned down, you are extending the lifetine in an absolute way as well, because you are running it at less than the rating.
This is also how long life incandescent light bulbs work. They are really rated for 130 volts, but when run at 120, have a lifetime that can can easily be double, or more.
You might find the panel lasting up to four times the nominal rating.
This isn't always mentioned outside of the technical specs.
I suspect the Wiki numbers are off. I know of OLED panels that are rated at almost 30,000 hours.
This makes no sense. How does offering new hardware kill momentum of new software. Generally they would go hand and hand.
Would new Macs kill momentum of an OS X upgrade?
MAC OS X can run on variety of hardware (iMacs, Mac Pros, MacBooks) and Apple can make money by selling the OS by itself. You cannot go and by iPhone 2.0 OS because it is free upgrade. For Apple to make money from the iPhone OS upgrade they will need to sell more iPhone. On the other hand, Mac OS X is not specific to a single machine and they can profit mainly from the actual sale of the OS along with a boost to computers sale.
IMO, Apple will spend this year marketing the iPhone by praising the software capability to reach their 10 million units. In MWSF 09 SJ will appear on stage saying that Apple "Shipped" 10 mi. iPhones until 2008 and thats for iPhone 1.0 with Edge and Apple will sell another 10 mil. and this time with 3G, video calls, .... fill in the blank.
I believe that the rumors about the 3G iPhone are spread to take advantage of the recent rise of Apple stock. They said nothing but negative statements about Apple in the past few months to drag the price down. Now, they are spreading rumors for personal gain. They will start again to talk negative about Apple after earnings just to come back again before Jun conference to spread other rumors.
MAC OS X can run on variety of hardware (iMacs, Mac Pros, MacBooks) and Apple can make money by selling the OS by itself. You cannot go and by iPhone 2.0 OS because it is free upgrade. For Apple to make money from the iPhone OS upgrade they will need to sell more iPhone. On the other hand, Mac OS X is not specific to a single machine and they can profit mainly from the actual sale of the OS along with a boost to computers sale.
Apple isn't making a profit on iPhone OS 2.0. I still cannot see what it has to do with a 3G iPhone.
MAC OS X can run on variety of hardware (iMacs, Mac Pros, MacBooks) and Apple can make money by selling the OS by itself. You cannot go and by iPhone 2.0 OS because it is free upgrade. For Apple to make money from the iPhone OS upgrade they will need to sell more iPhone. On the other hand, Mac OS X is not specific to a single machine and they can profit mainly from the actual sale of the OS along with a boost to computers sale.
IMO, Apple will spend this year marketing the iPhone by praising the software capability to reach their 10 million units. In MWSF 09 SJ will appear on stage saying that Apple "Shipped" 10 mi. iPhones until 2008 and thats for iPhone 1.0 with Edge and Apple will sell another 10 mil. and this time with 3G, video calls, .... fill in the blank.
I believe that the rumors about the 3G iPhone are spread to take advantage of the recent rise of Apple stock. They said nothing but negative statements about Apple in the past few months to drag the price down. Now, they are spreading rumors for personal gain. They will start again to talk negative about Apple after earnings just to come back again before Jun conference to spread other rumors.
I'm not sure I understand your post. Your last paragraph makes little sense. It's just a cynical statement that you seem to want to believe.
Your second paragraph makes no sense at all. I mean, literally, no sense.
Nice comments... It is good to hear people talking about 3G iPhone and trying to understand the strategy of Apple. Here are my thoughts about the subject...
So lets wrap up some facts:
OLED Displays
There are lots of posts about OLED displays and the benefits of them. Low energy consumption is the best advantage of the OLED displays compared to their brighter images.
Why iPhone does not have 3G technology?
As I remember, one of the main reasons why iPhone was released as an EDGE phone rather than a 3G phone is that the energy consumption of 3G services and the 3G hardware. So if they some how manage the energy problem, it is possible have 3G in iPhone.
Europe and Asia markets
It is obvious that Europe and Asia mobile markets are far more mature than US market. People tend to love mobile phones, mobile services and mobile communication. Especially in Asia, the mobile industry, VAS market share and 3G services are much more popular than Europe, and USA. As an illustration, not a single 2G device was sold in Japan last month.
So what I am trying to say is, Apple still sells iPhone to those countries, but the expectations of the poeple in those countries are much more different than people in USA. People use mobile internet rather than WiFi hot-spots, they use video-calling and much more diverse services that can only possible with 3G networks. And if Apple wants to sign contract with the operators in those countries, it should definately release a 3G iPhone.
The 2.0 Software
As we all know for sure, Apple is going to release software version 1.2.0 in June, aka 2.0. It is going to include huge improvements for iPhone. And with the release of SDK, we will see much more and smart applications for iPhone. All of this I believe will boost iPhone.
On the other hand, it will be almost a year and a half since the release of the first iPhone. If the previous products (iPod release since 2001 (iPod 4 versions, Mini, Nano, Shuffle etc...)) and release dates are considered, it should not be a surprise if there will be another version of iPhone. However we cannot be sure of that.
So...?
All in all, I believe if the OLED technology is ready for iPhone, i think the timing is not bad for a new 3G version of iPhone (in June 2008). But there are lots of parameters which are not even mentioned here, such as the number of iPhones sold or is planned to.
What do you think about this, in terms of these or much more parameters are considered? I know it is the big question, but let's talk more with facts and try to understand the reasoning of Apple.
To sell 10 million phones by the end of 2008 Apple will have to offer an updated phone.
Who are you, and what have you done with Teno? You sound more like, well... ME, here.
Sry though, I'm just passing through. My 'family emergency' has turned into tragedy, sad to say. Thanks for your words of concern in the previous thread though.
I'm not sure I understand your post. Your last paragraph makes little sense. It's just a cynical statement that you seem to want to believe.
Your second paragraph makes no sense at all. I mean, literally, no sense.
When Apple upgrade the iPhone it won't be 3G only (More battery life, video calls?). If they do update in Jun then what else are they going to offer next year?
People are overrating 3G. 3G might be a plus for some people living in areas where 3G is available (Specially in Europe). Third party Applications are appealing to more people and therefore focusing on 3rd party this year will help achieve their goal of 10 mil. iphone. The iPhone still need a lot of work on the software side.
When Apple upgrade the iPhone it won't be 3G only (More battery life, video calls?). If they do update in Jun then what else are they going to offer next year?
People are overrating 3G. 3G might be a plus for some people living in areas where 3G is available (Specially in Europe). Third party Applications are appealing to more people and therefore focusing on 3rd party this year will help achieve their goal of 10 mil. iphone. The iPhone still need a lot of work on the software side.
So you don't think if Apple offers 3G in June, they can offer anything else for future iPhones..
Nice comments... It is good to hear people talking about 3G iPhone and trying to understand the strategy of Apple. Here are my thoughts about the subject...
So lets wrap up some facts:
OLED Displays
There are lots of posts about OLED displays and the benefits of them. Low energy consumption is the best advantage of the OLED displays compared to their brighter images.
Why iPhone does not have 3G technology?
As I remember, one of the main reasons why iPhone was released as an EDGE phone rather than a 3G phone is that the energy consumption of 3G services and the 3G hardware. So if they some how manage the energy problem, it is possible have 3G in iPhone.
Europe and Asia markets
It is obvious that Europe and Asia mobile markets are far more mature than US market. People tend to love mobile phones, mobile services and mobile communication. Especially in Asia, the mobile industry, VAS market share and 3G services are much more popular than Europe, and USA. As an illustration, not a single 2G device was sold in Japan last month.
So what I am trying to say is, Apple still sells iPhone to those countries, but the expectations of the poeple in those countries are much more different than people in USA. People use mobile internet rather than WiFi hot-spots, they use video-calling and much more diverse services that can only possible with 3G networks. And if Apple wants to sign contract with the operators in those countries, it should definately release a 3G iPhone.
The 2.0 Software
As we all know for sure, Apple is going to release software version 1.2.0 in June, aka 2.0. It is going to include huge improvements for iPhone. And with the release of SDK, we will see much more and smart applications for iPhone. All of this I believe will boost iPhone.
On the other hand, it will be almost a year and a half since the release of the first iPhone. If the previous products (iPod release since 2001 (iPod 4 versions, Mini, Nano, Shuffle etc...)) and release dates are considered, it should not be a surprise if there will be another version of iPhone. However we cannot be sure of that.
So...?
All in all, I believe if the OLED technology is ready for iPhone, i think the timing is not bad for a new 3G version of iPhone (in June 2008). But there are lots of parameters which are not even mentioned here, such as the number of iPhones sold or is planned to.
What do you think about this, in terms of these or much more parameters are considered? I know it is the big question, but let's talk more with facts and try to understand the reasoning of Apple.
Goktug
I agree with most of what you say, except that most Asian markets are less mature, not more. Japan being the exception.
When Apple upgrade the iPhone it won't be 3G only (More battery life, video calls?). If they do update in Jun then what else are they going to offer next year?
People are overrating 3G. 3G might be a plus for some people living in areas where 3G is available (Specially in Europe). Third party Applications are appealing to more people and therefore focusing on 3rd party this year will help achieve their goal of 10 mil. iphone. The iPhone still need a lot of work on the software side.
While we can't prove this one way or the other until it does happen, I disagree with you.
Releasing the new software in June gives Apple the perfect opportunity to also upgrade to a 3G model. Will they? Hopefully.
As for next year. Apple can release a GPS enabled model that will pull the GPS to the end user, which few phones do with it now.
The OLED screen is likely not going to be here in June-a big overhaul.
Of course, more memory, and as an overhaul of the internals with new chips from Intel.
Possibly the allowing of third parties to use the connector for the purpose of programming.
A version 3.0 software upgrade to account for these changes.
Newer, less expensive models, to expand the range of customers.
Who are you, and what have you done with Teno? You sound more like, well... ME, here.
Sry though, I'm just passing through. My 'family emergency' has turned into tragedy, sad to say. Thanks for your words of concern in the previous thread though.
Where we differ is you emphasis 3G as your supreme complaint. When I talk about updating the iPhone I mean in every way. Higher resolution screen, faster processor, more storage, denser battery, as well as 3G.
I'm sorry to hear your family emergency is has turned to tragedy.
As for next year. Apple can release a GPS enabled model that will pull the GPS to the end user, which few phones do with it now.
The OLED screen is likely not going to be here in June-a big overhaul.
From what I understand about GPS in the device itself at least at this point is not necessarily the best way to go. When you enter a new area your phone has to find the satellite which can take few minutes. GPS in general takes a heavy toll on power conservation.
From what I've read assisted GPS can be a much better solution as the contact with the satellite is done on backend servers and not within the device itself. Contact between the device and server is instantaneous over 3G or WiFi.
From what I've read about OLED is that it is ready to be used. What is mostly holding back its adoption is simply that its more expensive than LCD. Once it begins to be used more widely the prices will come down.
From what I understand about GPS in the device itself at least at this point is not necessarily the best way to go. When you enter a new area your phone has to find the satellite which can take few minutes. GPS in general takes a heavy toll on power conservation.
From what I've read assisted GPS can be a much better solution as the contact with the satellite is done on backend servers and not within the device itself. Contact between the device and server is instantaneous over 3G or WiFi.
From what I've read about OLED is that it is ready to be used. What is mostly holding back its adoption is simply that its more expensive than LCD. Once it begins to be used more widely the prices will come down.
Last year, a company came out with a GPS chip that could work indoors (a major disadvantage of GPS) and uses less power. Usually, GPS devices can lock in several seconds, depending on how many satellites it is capable of handling. I can't find the link now.
I still think that it's the lack of the particular screen Apple needs. Price should be secondary now.
Comments
Releasing the 3G iPhone in Jun will kill the 2.0 update momentum.
This makes no sense. How does offering new hardware kill momentum of new software. Generally they would go hand and hand.
Would new Macs kill momentum of an OS X upgrade?
Let's understand something here. *IN* the calender year means the same thing as by the *END* of the year, calender, or otherwise.
Apple may say *in* because they hope it will be before the *end* of the year. But they aren't saying *middle* or other part of the year either, because they don't know if that will be correct.
*IN* means anytime during, including the last day.
No it does not Mel.
"In 2008" means the calendar year 2008.
"By the end of 2008" has a clear end date, but no clear start date.
Thus it's important to analyze the rest of the statement.
"Apple will have sold 40 million Macs by the end of 2008" means Jan. 24, 1984 - Dec. 31, 2008.
"Apple will sell 5 million Macs by the end of 2008", means today until Dec. 31, 2008.
Neither means Jan. 1 - Dec. 31 unless today is January 1.
I agree with you that Apple has always intended to sell 10 million iPhones during the calendar year 2008.
Thank you for the good background. But are you saying OLED is something you think we might see mid to late 2008? Or do you think the problem with unproven lifespan of larger constantly reconfiguring OLED screens and the current high cost will mean it is something to look forward to a couple of years down the line?
I really don't know what Apple is thinking along these lines. I don't believe that lifetime or price is a big issue.
The problem is getting the screen in the size Apple needs, with the resolution it needs. If no screens are being made that are suitable, Apple would have to convince a manufacturer to design one for them. I don't know the likelihood of that. Even if one agrees, and I suppose one would, it would take time. I don't know Apple's priorities on this.
And also thanks for clearing up the LED/OLED confusion. In addition Wikipedia has a good page on this. It says 14,000 hours lifespan compared to 60,000 hours for traditional LED/LCD technology and it mentions a newer experimental version claiming 198,000 hours. Would be great to see Apple champion this superior tech and drive the 'economies of scale' process.
20,000 hours is considered to be the useful lifetime for a consumer product. My Samsung rear projection DLP uses LEDs for the light engine, and they are rated at 20,000 hours (they are not OLEDS). That's 6 hours a day for 9 years (their rating).
198,000 hours is unrealistic, as no consumer product, and few commercial or military ones, would be used for that long. The other question is just how they are rated.
LEDs (and OLEDs) are normally rated for a one stop drop in output (50%). So, a panel with a 20,000 hour lifetime simply means that the output has dropped by half. Some are more strictly rated at a 25% drop, so one must know this in order to compare one product with another.
Also, if the panel is brighter than needed, as is often the case, then the brightness will be turned down. This leads to two results. The first is that the liftime is at rating. That is, the highest brightness within the voltage/current/temp rating. If you turn it down by half, not unusual, then you merely turn it up over time, which extends its lifetine in a practical sense.
Two is that if you have it turned down, you are extending the lifetine in an absolute way as well, because you are running it at less than the rating.
This is also how long life incandescent light bulbs work. They are really rated for 130 volts, but when run at 120, have a lifetime that can can easily be double, or more.
You might find the panel lasting up to four times the nominal rating.
This isn't always mentioned outside of the technical specs.
I suspect the Wiki numbers are off. I know of OLED panels that are rated at almost 30,000 hours.
No it does not Mel.
"In 2008" means the calendar year 2008.
"By the end of 2008" has a clear end date, but no clear start date.
Thus it's important to analyze the rest of the statement.
"Apple will have sold 40 million Macs by the end of 2008" means Jan. 24, 1984 - Dec. 31, 2008.
"Apple will sell 5 million Macs by the end of 2008", means today until Dec. 31, 2008.
Neither means Jan. 1 - Dec. 31 unless today is January 1.
I agree with you that Apple has always intended to sell 10 million iPhones during the calendar year 2008.
I said, calender year. Please re-read the quote you posted of mine. Meaning that if Apple specs calender year, then that's what they meant.
I'm not saying Dec 31st. By year, I mean 12 months. 12 months from whenever Apple starts the clock.
But, what I'm saying is that *in* the calender year, and the *end* of the calender year means the same thing.
Does my position make more sense to you now?
This makes no sense. How does offering new hardware kill momentum of new software. Generally they would go hand and hand.
Would new Macs kill momentum of an OS X upgrade?
MAC OS X can run on variety of hardware (iMacs, Mac Pros, MacBooks) and Apple can make money by selling the OS by itself. You cannot go and by iPhone 2.0 OS because it is free upgrade. For Apple to make money from the iPhone OS upgrade they will need to sell more iPhone. On the other hand, Mac OS X is not specific to a single machine and they can profit mainly from the actual sale of the OS along with a boost to computers sale.
IMO, Apple will spend this year marketing the iPhone by praising the software capability to reach their 10 million units. In MWSF 09 SJ will appear on stage saying that Apple "Shipped" 10 mi. iPhones until 2008 and thats for iPhone 1.0 with Edge and Apple will sell another 10 mil. and this time with 3G, video calls, .... fill in the blank.
I believe that the rumors about the 3G iPhone are spread to take advantage of the recent rise of Apple stock. They said nothing but negative statements about Apple in the past few months to drag the price down. Now, they are spreading rumors for personal gain. They will start again to talk negative about Apple after earnings just to come back again before Jun conference to spread other rumors.
MAC OS X can run on variety of hardware (iMacs, Mac Pros, MacBooks) and Apple can make money by selling the OS by itself. You cannot go and by iPhone 2.0 OS because it is free upgrade. For Apple to make money from the iPhone OS upgrade they will need to sell more iPhone. On the other hand, Mac OS X is not specific to a single machine and they can profit mainly from the actual sale of the OS along with a boost to computers sale.
Apple isn't making a profit on iPhone OS 2.0. I still cannot see what it has to do with a 3G iPhone.
MAC OS X can run on variety of hardware (iMacs, Mac Pros, MacBooks) and Apple can make money by selling the OS by itself. You cannot go and by iPhone 2.0 OS because it is free upgrade. For Apple to make money from the iPhone OS upgrade they will need to sell more iPhone. On the other hand, Mac OS X is not specific to a single machine and they can profit mainly from the actual sale of the OS along with a boost to computers sale.
IMO, Apple will spend this year marketing the iPhone by praising the software capability to reach their 10 million units. In MWSF 09 SJ will appear on stage saying that Apple "Shipped" 10 mi. iPhones until 2008 and thats for iPhone 1.0 with Edge and Apple will sell another 10 mil. and this time with 3G, video calls, .... fill in the blank.
I believe that the rumors about the 3G iPhone are spread to take advantage of the recent rise of Apple stock. They said nothing but negative statements about Apple in the past few months to drag the price down. Now, they are spreading rumors for personal gain. They will start again to talk negative about Apple after earnings just to come back again before Jun conference to spread other rumors.
I'm not sure I understand your post. Your last paragraph makes little sense. It's just a cynical statement that you seem to want to believe.
Your second paragraph makes no sense at all. I mean, literally, no sense.
I'm not sure I understand your post. Your last paragraph makes little sense. It's just a cynical statement that you seem to want to believe.
Your second paragraph makes no sense at all. I mean, literally, no sense.
I agree - the second paragraph literally makes no sense.
So lets wrap up some facts:
OLED Displays
There are lots of posts about OLED displays and the benefits of them. Low energy consumption is the best advantage of the OLED displays compared to their brighter images.
Why iPhone does not have 3G technology?
As I remember, one of the main reasons why iPhone was released as an EDGE phone rather than a 3G phone is that the energy consumption of 3G services and the 3G hardware. So if they some how manage the energy problem, it is possible have 3G in iPhone.
Europe and Asia markets
It is obvious that Europe and Asia mobile markets are far more mature than US market. People tend to love mobile phones, mobile services and mobile communication. Especially in Asia, the mobile industry, VAS market share and 3G services are much more popular than Europe, and USA. As an illustration, not a single 2G device was sold in Japan last month.
So what I am trying to say is, Apple still sells iPhone to those countries, but the expectations of the poeple in those countries are much more different than people in USA. People use mobile internet rather than WiFi hot-spots, they use video-calling and much more diverse services that can only possible with 3G networks. And if Apple wants to sign contract with the operators in those countries, it should definately release a 3G iPhone.
The 2.0 Software
As we all know for sure, Apple is going to release software version 1.2.0 in June, aka 2.0. It is going to include huge improvements for iPhone. And with the release of SDK, we will see much more and smart applications for iPhone. All of this I believe will boost iPhone.
On the other hand, it will be almost a year and a half since the release of the first iPhone. If the previous products (iPod release since 2001 (iPod 4 versions, Mini, Nano, Shuffle etc...)) and release dates are considered, it should not be a surprise if there will be another version of iPhone. However we cannot be sure of that.
So...?
All in all, I believe if the OLED technology is ready for iPhone, i think the timing is not bad for a new 3G version of iPhone (in June 2008). But there are lots of parameters which are not even mentioned here, such as the number of iPhones sold or is planned to.
What do you think about this, in terms of these or much more parameters are considered? I know it is the big question, but let's talk more with facts and try to understand the reasoning of Apple.
Goktug
To sell 10 million phones by the end of 2008 Apple will have to offer an updated phone.
Who are you, and what have you done with Teno? You sound more like, well... ME, here.
Sry though, I'm just passing through. My 'family emergency' has turned into tragedy, sad to say. Thanks for your words of concern in the previous thread though.
.
I'm not sure I understand your post. Your last paragraph makes little sense. It's just a cynical statement that you seem to want to believe.
Your second paragraph makes no sense at all. I mean, literally, no sense.
When Apple upgrade the iPhone it won't be 3G only (More battery life, video calls?). If they do update in Jun then what else are they going to offer next year?
People are overrating 3G. 3G might be a plus for some people living in areas where 3G is available (Specially in Europe). Third party Applications are appealing to more people and therefore focusing on 3rd party this year will help achieve their goal of 10 mil. iphone. The iPhone still need a lot of work on the software side.
When Apple upgrade the iPhone it won't be 3G only (More battery life, video calls?). If they do update in Jun then what else are they going to offer next year?
People are overrating 3G. 3G might be a plus for some people living in areas where 3G is available (Specially in Europe). Third party Applications are appealing to more people and therefore focusing on 3rd party this year will help achieve their goal of 10 mil. iphone. The iPhone still need a lot of work on the software side.
So you don't think if Apple offers 3G in June, they can offer anything else for future iPhones..
So you don't think if Apple offers 3G in June, they can offer anything else for future iPhones..
hardware.. not after 6 months.. As I see it Apple squeeze their products and don't make major upgrade until they explore every other possible way.
Nice comments... It is good to hear people talking about 3G iPhone and trying to understand the strategy of Apple. Here are my thoughts about the subject...
So lets wrap up some facts:
OLED Displays
There are lots of posts about OLED displays and the benefits of them. Low energy consumption is the best advantage of the OLED displays compared to their brighter images.
Why iPhone does not have 3G technology?
As I remember, one of the main reasons why iPhone was released as an EDGE phone rather than a 3G phone is that the energy consumption of 3G services and the 3G hardware. So if they some how manage the energy problem, it is possible have 3G in iPhone.
Europe and Asia markets
It is obvious that Europe and Asia mobile markets are far more mature than US market. People tend to love mobile phones, mobile services and mobile communication. Especially in Asia, the mobile industry, VAS market share and 3G services are much more popular than Europe, and USA. As an illustration, not a single 2G device was sold in Japan last month.
So what I am trying to say is, Apple still sells iPhone to those countries, but the expectations of the poeple in those countries are much more different than people in USA. People use mobile internet rather than WiFi hot-spots, they use video-calling and much more diverse services that can only possible with 3G networks. And if Apple wants to sign contract with the operators in those countries, it should definately release a 3G iPhone.
The 2.0 Software
As we all know for sure, Apple is going to release software version 1.2.0 in June, aka 2.0. It is going to include huge improvements for iPhone. And with the release of SDK, we will see much more and smart applications for iPhone. All of this I believe will boost iPhone.
On the other hand, it will be almost a year and a half since the release of the first iPhone. If the previous products (iPod release since 2001 (iPod 4 versions, Mini, Nano, Shuffle etc...)) and release dates are considered, it should not be a surprise if there will be another version of iPhone. However we cannot be sure of that.
So...?
All in all, I believe if the OLED technology is ready for iPhone, i think the timing is not bad for a new 3G version of iPhone (in June 2008). But there are lots of parameters which are not even mentioned here, such as the number of iPhones sold or is planned to.
What do you think about this, in terms of these or much more parameters are considered? I know it is the big question, but let's talk more with facts and try to understand the reasoning of Apple.
Goktug
I agree with most of what you say, except that most Asian markets are less mature, not more. Japan being the exception.
When Apple upgrade the iPhone it won't be 3G only (More battery life, video calls?). If they do update in Jun then what else are they going to offer next year?
People are overrating 3G. 3G might be a plus for some people living in areas where 3G is available (Specially in Europe). Third party Applications are appealing to more people and therefore focusing on 3rd party this year will help achieve their goal of 10 mil. iphone. The iPhone still need a lot of work on the software side.
While we can't prove this one way or the other until it does happen, I disagree with you.
Releasing the new software in June gives Apple the perfect opportunity to also upgrade to a 3G model. Will they? Hopefully.
As for next year. Apple can release a GPS enabled model that will pull the GPS to the end user, which few phones do with it now.
The OLED screen is likely not going to be here in June-a big overhaul.
Of course, more memory, and as an overhaul of the internals with new chips from Intel.
Possibly the allowing of third parties to use the connector for the purpose of programming.
A version 3.0 software upgrade to account for these changes.
Newer, less expensive models, to expand the range of customers.
Etc.
Who are you, and what have you done with Teno? You sound more like, well... ME, here.
Sry though, I'm just passing through. My 'family emergency' has turned into tragedy, sad to say. Thanks for your words of concern in the previous thread though.
Where we differ is you emphasis 3G as your supreme complaint. When I talk about updating the iPhone I mean in every way. Higher resolution screen, faster processor, more storage, denser battery, as well as 3G.
I'm sorry to hear your family emergency is has turned to tragedy.
If they do update in Jun then what else are they going to offer next year?
Technology doesn't stop. 3G is not the end. The next mobile data standard is LTE.
As for next year. Apple can release a GPS enabled model that will pull the GPS to the end user, which few phones do with it now.
The OLED screen is likely not going to be here in June-a big overhaul.
From what I understand about GPS in the device itself at least at this point is not necessarily the best way to go. When you enter a new area your phone has to find the satellite which can take few minutes. GPS in general takes a heavy toll on power conservation.
From what I've read assisted GPS can be a much better solution as the contact with the satellite is done on backend servers and not within the device itself. Contact between the device and server is instantaneous over 3G or WiFi.
From what I've read about OLED is that it is ready to be used. What is mostly holding back its adoption is simply that its more expensive than LCD. Once it begins to be used more widely the prices will come down.
From what I understand about GPS in the device itself at least at this point is not necessarily the best way to go. When you enter a new area your phone has to find the satellite which can take few minutes. GPS in general takes a heavy toll on power conservation.
From what I've read assisted GPS can be a much better solution as the contact with the satellite is done on backend servers and not within the device itself. Contact between the device and server is instantaneous over 3G or WiFi.
From what I've read about OLED is that it is ready to be used. What is mostly holding back its adoption is simply that its more expensive than LCD. Once it begins to be used more widely the prices will come down.
Last year, a company came out with a GPS chip that could work indoors (a major disadvantage of GPS) and uses less power. Usually, GPS devices can lock in several seconds, depending on how many satellites it is capable of handling. I can't find the link now.
I still think that it's the lack of the particular screen Apple needs. Price should be secondary now.
I still think that it's the lack of the particular screen Apple needs. Price should be secondary now.
I cannot see how creating 3.5 inch OLED screen is a technical challenge in any way.